当人工智能的浪潮席卷千行百业，全球科技巨头加速算力布局，资本市场关于AI的热度亦如燎原之火 蔓延。在一片喧嚣之中，华夏基金举办的"年度对话|DeepAlpha：科技引领下的全球多元配置"，正试图 以冷静分析帮助投资者穿透市场噪音，捕捉价值赛道。 本次年度对话汇聚知名经济学家刘煜辉以及华夏基金祝青、顾鑫峰、施知序、郭琨研、孙蒙以及华龙等 主被动、策略、量化等多位嘉宾，围绕市场新格局、新动能与新机遇，从宏观到科技、从全球到配置进 行多维度解读，旨在为投资者在AI浪潮与宏观大势中提供追踪Beta、发现Alpha的思考锚点。 他认为，本轮AI科创革命成功的关键，是AI后端能否形成强大的产业生态，形成经济闭环。我国凭借 强大的落地能力和完备的产业生态，有望实现这一闭环。面对宏观不确定性，他主张以"哑铃策略"进行 有效风控，一端聚焦高股息资产，另一端布局长期结构性增长机会，如循环经济、新能源产业、深空航 天产业等方向。 华夏基金宏观策略研究员祝青则从更具操作性的年度视角出发，将宏观线索映射为具体的策略方向。她 认为，2026年的宏观主线或是"行业结构性景气格局延续"与"资金向权益资产的再配置"，一方面，AI是 景气高增的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its "transformation bull" trend into 2026, with potential to challenge the highs of ten years ago, driven by economic restructuring and capital market reforms [2][3]. Market Outlook - The "transformation bull" market is characterized by the interplay of economic restructuring and capital market reforms, with significant room for growth in 2026 [2]. - The A-share market's underlying logic has fundamentally changed, with three core factors leading to improved market confidence: increased confidence in handling external risks, greater internal stability, and the end of the asset contraction cycle [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The previous "dumbbell" market structure is losing effectiveness, with a shift towards quality growth expected in 2026 [4]. - The performance of traditional dividend indices has lagged behind the overall market, indicating a transition in market style [4]. Investment Directions - Emerging technology is identified as a primary investment focus, with cyclical consumption and the financial sector also seen as promising due to improved performance and low valuations [4][5]. - The financial sector, particularly non-bank financial institutions, is expected to see significant performance improvements due to rising asset management demand and active market trading [5]. "Deposit Migration" Trend - The trend of "deposit migration" is anticipated to become more pronounced in 2026, as the shift from fixed income to "fixed income plus" investment strategies gains momentum [6][7]. - The capital market is becoming a crucial link between traditional industrial capital and household wealth, facilitating innovation and economic transformation [6]. Economic Context - The opportunity cost in the Chinese market has systematically decreased since 2025, breaking the traditional "guaranteed return" mindset and stimulating demand for asset and wealth management [7].

Core Insights - The investment strategy of dividend investing is regaining prominence as a stable investment approach in 2025, contrasting with previous years focused on growth and resilience [1] - Dividend funds are highlighted as a key investment tool for 2025, offering steady returns and enhancing overall yield through dividends [1] Group 1: Dividend Fund Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, public funds have distributed over 220 billion yuan in dividends, with a total of 3,492 funds implementing dividend distributions, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.5% [2] - Leading fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund have demonstrated significant dividend capabilities, each surpassing 10 billion yuan in annual dividends [2] - Equity funds are increasingly contributing to the total dividend pool, with their share rising as bond funds' contribution declines, indicating a shift in investor preference [2][3] Group 2: Specific Fund Highlights - The top five funds in terms of dividend payouts in 2025 are all ETFs, with the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF leading at 8.39 billion yuan [3] - Funds with a high frequency of dividends, particularly those focused on dividend strategies, have shown strong performance, with some funds achieving over 10 distributions in 2025 [3] - The highest-performing dividend fund in 2025 is E Fund Kexiang, with a return of 66.37%, significantly outperforming others in the same category [3] Group 3: Fee Structure and Growth - Dividend funds are characterized by lower management and custody fees compared to actively managed equity funds, making them more attractive in a low-fee environment [4] - As of mid-2025, the asset management scale of dividend funds reached approximately 240 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase driven by low fees and improved dividend mechanisms [5] - The growth of dividend funds is attributed to a combination of low-fee environments, enhanced dividend mechanisms, and rising demand for stable returns amid market uncertainties [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that dividend funds will continue to be a favored asset class due to ongoing policy support for dividend distributions from both funds and listed companies [6] - Key areas of focus for 2026 include traditional industry leaders with stable earnings and clear dividend policies, as well as emerging dividend stocks with strong payout intentions [7] - The long-term value of Hong Kong dividend assets is also highlighted, particularly for investors seeking cash flow returns in a low-interest-rate environment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the high dividend ETF fund (513820) showing resilience and attracting significant capital inflows, indicating strong investor interest in dividend-yielding assets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed trend in early trading on December 24, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index down by 0.42% [1]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) recorded a slight decline of 0.08%, with a premium widening to 0.73% by the end of the trading session, reflecting active buying interest [1][3]. - The fund has seen a strong inflow of over 600 million yuan for 17 consecutive days, bringing its total size to over 4.3 billion yuan, significantly outperforming other ETFs in the same index [1][5]. Group 2: Fund Composition and Performance - The majority of the constituent stocks of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) experienced declines, with notable exceptions like HSBC Holdings, which rose over 1% [3][4]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the fund include China Pacific Insurance, China Telecom, and Agricultural Bank of China, with varying performance among them [4]. - The fund's index has a dividend yield of 7.25%, which is higher than similar indices in both Hong Kong and A-shares, establishing it as a leading choice for dividend investors [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Outlook - Multiple factors are contributing to the opening of a mid-term trading window for Hong Kong stocks, including a market adjustment that has increased safety margins and a continued net inflow of southbound funds [5]. - The current environment suggests a focus on high-quality dividend stocks with sustainable payouts and stable earnings, as the defensive attributes of dividend investments may weaken in a rising interest rate environment [6]. - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF fund (513820) is positioned as a "pure high dividend" strategy, which is expected to perform well in the current market conditions, especially as institutional demand for dividend assets increases [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the E Fund CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF reflects a trend among public fund institutions to increase their investment in Hong Kong-themed funds during a market adjustment phase, indicating optimism about the future performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Activity - In December, 21 public fund institutions have submitted applications for a total of 28 Hong Kong-themed funds, covering sectors such as technology, dividends, consumption, internet, and healthcare [2]. - Several Hong Kong-themed funds have chosen to end their fundraising periods early, such as the Pengyang Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected Mixed Fund, which advanced its deadline by over a month [2]. - The pace of new fund establishment and investment has accelerated, with the E Fund ETF completing its fundraising on December 17 and announcing its establishment on December 23 [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the actions of public fund institutions reflect a recognition of the Hong Kong stock market's value as a key asset class in China, with expectations for a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the future [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market has been in a phase of adjustment since October, with external disturbances causing fluctuations, but macroeconomic fundamentals are seen as crucial for a broader market recovery [3]. - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that Hong Kong's earnings will bottom out in 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth expected in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The focus on structural investment opportunities is emphasized, particularly in high-dividend assets and the technology sector, which are expected to have substantial upward potential [4]. - The appeal of Hong Kong high-dividend assets is increasing due to their attractive yields and lower volatility, especially in a declining interest rate environment [4]. - The consumption sector is also expected to receive significant policy support, with current valuations at relatively low levels, indicating potential for medium to long-term growth [4].

Core Insights - The China Securities A500 Index has become the most favored broad-based index, attracting over 60 billion yuan in net inflows since December [1][3][8] Group 1: Fund Inflows and Performance - The A500 ETF has seen a total net inflow of 616.77 billion yuan since December, accounting for over 90% of the total net inflow into stock ETFs during the same period [3][4] - The A500 ETF managed by Huatai-PB reached a record size of nearly 42 billion yuan, with a net inflow of approximately 15.3 billion yuan in December alone [3][7] - Other A500 ETFs, such as those managed by Southern and Huaxia, also reported significant inflows, exceeding 17.7 billion yuan and 10.2 billion yuan respectively, with their sizes reaching 39.2 billion yuan and 32.3 billion yuan [4][7] Group 2: Trading Activity - Trading activity for A500 ETFs has increased significantly, with Huatai-PB's daily average trading volume exceeding 8.9 billion yuan in December, more than double the average of 2.6 billion yuan from the previous eleven months [5][7] - Other A500 ETFs, including those from E Fund and Southern, also experienced notable increases in trading volumes during December [5] Group 3: Index Characteristics - The unique compilation rules of the A500 Index, which balance industry representation rather than solely focusing on market capitalization, align well with the current market environment [2][8] - The index includes 233 stocks from the CSI 300 Index and 211 from the CSI 500 Index, providing broad coverage of core assets and new productive forces [8] - The A500 Index is seen as a resilient investment option, appealing to institutional investors due to its balanced growth and dividend characteristics [8]

Core Viewpoint - The CSI A500 Index has become the most favored broad-based index for funds, with over 60 billion yuan net inflow since December, indicating strong market interest and investment opportunities [1][3]. Fund Inflows and Performance - As of December 22, the total scale of A500 ETFs in the market exceeded 263 billion yuan, with net inflows reaching 616.77 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% of the total net inflows into stock ETFs during the same period [3]. - The Huatai-PineBridge A500 ETF has reached a scale of nearly 42 billion yuan, marking it as the first A500 ETF to surpass 40 billion yuan, with a net inflow of approximately 15.3 billion yuan in December alone [3][4]. - The Southern A500 ETF followed closely, with a scale of 39.25 billion yuan and net inflows exceeding 17.7 billion yuan in December [3][4]. - Other A500 ETFs from Huaxia and Guotai have also reached over 30 billion yuan, with net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan [4]. Trading Activity - The trading activity of leading A500 ETFs has significantly increased, with the Huatai-PineBridge A500 ETF averaging daily trading volume of over 8.9 billion yuan in December, more than double the average of 2.6 billion yuan in the previous 11 months [5][6]. - The Huaxia A500 ETF also saw an average daily trading volume exceeding 8 billion yuan, nearly doubling its previous average [6]. Index Characteristics - The CSI A500 Index stands out due to its unique compilation rules, which align well with the current market environment. It employs an industry-balanced strategy, selecting 500 leading companies from various sectors, thus covering both large-cap and mid-cap stocks [10][11]. - The index includes 233 stocks from the CSI 300 Index and 211 from the CSI 500 Index, providing broad coverage of "core assets" and "new productive forces" [10]. - The index's design allows it to be attractive for long-term institutional investors, as it represents resilient sectors of the economy and has a balanced dividend profile [11].

近期A股市场震荡上行，政策预期升温，春季攻势或正徐徐展开。那么，放眼海外市场，我们该如何布 局？对此，长城基金国际业务部副总经理曲少杰在其公司近日举办的2026年度策略会上表示，哑铃策略 或是更优解。 三是红利资产的股价表现与利率走势整体呈负相关性，社会利率水平下行，有利于红利股票行情； 四是相较于A股，港股的红利资产估值相对较低，且股息率水平更高。 免责声明：本通讯所载信息来源于本公司认为可靠的渠道和研究员个人判断，但本公司不对其准确性或 完整性提供直接或隐含的声明或保证。此通讯并非对相关证券或市场的完整表述或概括，任何所表达的 意见可能会更改且不另外通知。此通讯不应被接收者作为对其独立判断的替代或投资决策依据。本公司 或本公司的相关机构、雇员或代理人不对任何人使用此全部或部分内容的行为或由此而引致的任何损失 承担任何责任。未经长城基金管理有限公司事先书面许可，任何人不得将此报告或其任何部分以任何形 式进行派发、复制、转载或发布，且不得对本通讯进行任何有悖原意的删节或修改。基金管理人提醒， 每个公民都有举报洗钱犯罪的义务和权利。每个公民都应严格遵守反洗钱的相关法律、法规。基金有风 险，投资需谨慎。 MACD ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly through the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560), which has seen consistent net inflows and is being utilized in a "technology + dividend" barbell strategy [1][3][4] - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF has recorded a total net inflow of 90.15 million yuan over the past 10 days, indicating strong investor confidence in the future performance of Hong Kong stocks [1] - The current market environment is characterized by a "valuation bottom + liquidity bottom + sentiment bottom" forming a strategic configuration window for investments, with low valuations providing a safety margin and capital inflows validating trend reversals [3] Group 2 - In the consumer sector of the Hong Kong stock market, notable performers include Pop Mart with a rise of over 2%, and both Nongfu Spring and Anta Sports increasing by more than 1% [1] - In the technology sector, Meituan has risen by over 1%, while Tencent Holdings and Alibaba also showed positive performance [1] - The dividend sector saw China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation increase by over 1%, along with Agricultural Bank of China also performing well [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF is designed to include a mix of high-growth technology stocks like Alibaba and Tencent, alongside stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Construction Bank and Ping An Insurance, making it an ideal long-term investment tool [4] - The ETF operates under a "T+0 mechanism," allowing for flexible trading, which enhances its attractiveness for investors looking for stability and growth [4] - The strategic recommendation from Guangfa Securities suggests maintaining a barbell strategy, with stable value assets as a long-term base and growth assets that have solid industrial logic [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) has shown a positive market performance with an intraday increase of 0.77% and a current rise of 0.33%, indicating strong buying interest from investors [1] - Over the past 10 days, the ETF has experienced a net inflow of funds totaling 90.15 million, reflecting investor confidence in the future performance of Hong Kong stocks [1] - In the consumer sector, stocks like Pop Mart and Nongfu Spring have risen over 2% and 1% respectively, while in the technology sector, Meituan and Tencent have also shown positive movement [1] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness with November's non-farm payrolls adding only 64,000 jobs and an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest in four years [3] - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to weaken the U.S. dollar and improve liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, potentially attracting foreign capital [3] - Analysts suggest that the current Hong Kong stock market is in a favorable position characterized by a "valuation bottom, liquidity bottom, and sentiment bottom," creating a strategic investment window [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) is designed with a "technology + dividend" strategy, combining high-growth tech stocks like Alibaba and Tencent with stable dividend-paying stocks such as China Construction Bank and Ping An [4] - The ETF offers a flexible "T+0" trading mechanism, making it an ideal long-term investment tool for those looking to balance risk and return in the Hong Kong market [4] - The recommendation is to adopt a "barbell strategy" for investment, focusing on stable value assets for long-term holdings while also considering growth-oriented assets that show strong industry fundamentals [3]