转债量价齐升，估值压力再起 可转债市场周观察 研究结论 固定收益 | 动态跟踪 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 12 日 ⚫ 上周转债市场在正股带动下同样放量上行，尽管转债估值已然偏高，但高价高估转 债依然强势，百元溢价率突破前期 30%-34%的震荡区间，或将缓慢回调。在性价比 转债稀缺的环境下，增量资金只能流向存续期确定性强的转债。 ⚫ 从当前绝对价格和估值水平看，转债未来上行空间有限，但增量需求预计还能为转 债提供一定支撑，在个券估值已经全面高估的情况下，我们建议关注次新券及放弃 赎回的转债，交易性机会大于趋势性机会。 ⚫ 上周沪指实现 16 连阳并站上 4100 点，在外资流入、国内中长期资金加大权益资产 配置占比的情况下，成交额突破三万亿，商业航天、ai 算力、应用、小金属等板块 继续强势。前期市场猜测的回踩没有出现，元旦后市场延续强势向上突破，观察 A 股历史上几次成交突破三万亿的情况，天量并不意味着见顶，但追高题材或应谨 慎。我们认为市场上行不会一蹴 ...

恒生指数高开0.53%，恒生科技指数涨0.81%。盘面上，AI医疗概念强势，阿里健康涨近3%；新股智汇 矿业开盘涨139.47%；贵金属板块跌幅居前，紫金矿业跌超1%。 关于港股后市 招商证券表示，港股近期走弱缘于：南向资金由于公募基准新规而回流A股和抱团的挤出效应，IPO融 资潮的担忧，解禁高峰的到来，盈利下修与海外流动性扰动。展望后市，随着南向资金回流和抱团行为 减弱，IPO供给压力和解禁金额阶段性缓解，盈利修复，海外流动性释放，港股有望迎来跨年行情。 华泰证券认为，目前市场下行空间可控但上行胜率尚未打开。港股情绪指标依然处于悲观区间，对应磨 底阶段，情绪指数走势与2024年11月类似。彼时情绪指标进入恐慌区间后，市场在2025年初迎来明显反 弹，春节前后DeepSeek催化下斜率放大。未来行情催化因素可能来自以下三点预期差：人民币升值： 升值共识一旦形成，资本流动或发生重要改变，可以类比今年欧洲市场；企业出海：市场依然担忧汇率 升值和出口高基数的影响，明年上半年中美关系依然处于温和期，出口韧性存在预期差；国内科技进展 突破，走出独立路径等。 浦银国际表示，短期来看，预计市场将维持震荡态势，风格和投资主线 ...

浦银国际认为，短期来看，预计市场将维持震荡态势，风格和投资主线或将出现轮动。短期缺乏新的催 化剂，加上明年美联储降息的不确定性将影响外部流动性，增量资金配置或更集中于稀缺性资产，而估 值扩张空间有限，这些因素都会加剧市场波动，因此盈利端的表现将更可能决定市场的走势。短期投资 交易策略上建议攻守兼备，"科技+红利"的杠铃策略依然有效。 华泰证券认为，目前市场下行空间可控但上行胜率尚未打开。港股情绪指标依然处于悲观区间，对应磨 底阶段，情绪指数走势与2024年11月类似。彼时情绪指标进入恐慌区间后，市场在2025年初迎来明显反 弹，春节前后DeepSeek催化下斜率放大。未来行情催化因素可能来自以下三点预期差：1)人民币升值： 升值共识一旦形成，资本流动或发生重要改变，可以类比今年欧洲市场;2)企业出海：市场依然担忧汇 率升值和出口高基数的影响，明年上半年中美关系依然处于温和期，出口韧性存在预期差;3)国内科技 进展突破，走出独立路径等。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股"，智通财经编辑：李佛。 恒生指数高开0.03%，恒生科技指数涨0.09%。盘面上，锂矿概念活跃，天齐锂业、赣锋锂业涨超3%;汽 车板块回调，小鹏汽车跌近 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on November 19, with the Hang Seng China (Hong Kong listed) 30 Index rising alongside, driven by a rebound in major tech stocks like Alibaba, which increased by over 1% [1] - The Hong Kong large-cap 30 ETF (520560) experienced a V-shaped rally, rising by 0.3% during trading, reflecting strong buying sentiment with a premium rate of 0.33% [1] - Recent trading days saw significant inflows into the Hong Kong large-cap 30 ETF, accumulating over 870 million [1] Market Developments - Alibaba's AI assistant, Qianwen, gained popularity, ranking fifth in the Apple App Store's free app category shortly after its public testing launch [3] - A memorandum of cooperation in the gold sector was signed between the Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau and the Shenzhen local financial management bureau, enhancing financial infrastructure connectivity [3] Investment Strategies - According to Guangfa Securities, potential improvements in liquidity expectations, a dovish stance on interest rates in December, and a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown could provide new upward momentum for the Hong Kong stock market [3] - China Merchants Securities noted that recent market fluctuations and investor profit-taking behavior present investment opportunities, suggesting a return to a "barbell strategy" focusing on tech stocks for growth and dividend stocks for stability [3] ETF Overview - The Hong Kong large-cap 30 ETF (520560) launched on November 12, featuring a collection of 30 major Hong Kong stocks, providing a diversified investment option [5] - The ETF employs a "tech + dividend" barbell strategy, balancing offensive and defensive positions [5] - It offers low valuation metrics, making it an attractive option for investors seeking cost-effective exposure to the Hong Kong market [5] - The ETF's trading flexibility, including a "T+0 mechanism" and high liquidity, makes it suitable for both short-term trading and long-term investment [5] Index Composition - The top holdings in the Hang Seng China (Hong Kong listed) 30 Index include Alibaba (18.07%), Tencent (15.44%), and China Construction Bank (7.64%), with the top ten stocks accounting for 72.84% of the index [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing active performance with the Hang Seng China (Hong Kong listed) 30 Index maintaining a high-level consolidation, driven by both technology and high-dividend stocks, indicating a potential bullish trend in the near term [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen significant liquidity improvement this year, with net inflows exceeding 1.3 trillion HKD, marking a record high since the launch of the Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014 [4]. - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) has shown a robust performance, rising over 1% during intraday trading, with a half-day trading volume exceeding 43 million HKD, approaching the total volume of the previous day [1][4]. Group 2: Stock Movements - Notable stock movements include BeiGene (百济神州) rising over 7% driven by performance, and Nongfu Spring (农夫山泉) increasing by 3% to reach a new high, while Alibaba (阿里巴巴-W) and Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) experienced a decline of 2% [3][4]. - The top-performing stocks in the index include BeiGene with a weight of 2.01% and a rise of 7.29%, followed by China Life (中国人寿) and China Resources Land (华润置地) with increases of 4.23% and 4.25% respectively [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The continuous inflow of southbound funds is expected to drive the capital market back to fundamentals and value-driven approaches, supporting a "slow bull" market for Hong Kong stocks [5]. - The investment strategy suggested includes a "barbell strategy," focusing on increasing positions in technology stocks while also emphasizing high-dividend and turnaround stocks [5].

Group 1 - The first Hong Kong ETF focused on "hard" technology, specifically semiconductor chips, electronics, and computer software, is set to launch on October 27 [1][2] - The Hong Kong Automotive 50 ETF, which focuses on leading car manufacturers, is expected to be launched soon [1][2] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF is designed to invest in major internet giants in the region [1][2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF is 100% focused on innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF combines technology and dividend strategies [1][3] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF offers high dividend yields with low volatility [1][3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Small Cap LOF targets small and mid-cap assets [1][3] - The Value Fund LOF focuses on A+H shares with dividend characteristics [1][3] - The new consumption wave driven by Generation Z is highlighted through the Huabao CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen New Consumption Index [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, making them a focal point for global capital allocation towards Chinese assets. As of September 12, 2025, the net inflow of southbound funds reached 1,072.886 billion HKD, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 31.55% in the Hang Seng Index and 28.46% in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [1][2] - The launch of the first Hong Kong large-cap 30 ETF by Huabao Fund aims to provide investors with an innovative tool to capture investment opportunities in "core Chinese assets" within the Hong Kong market. This ETF tracks the Hang Seng China (Hong Kong-listed) 30 Index, which consists of the 30 largest companies listed in Hong Kong [1][2] - The investment logic for Hong Kong stocks has shifted from "offshore marketization" to "onshore marketization," with a more diversified investment style and an expansion of profit models, which supports the sustainability of the Hong Kong stock market [2] Group 2 - The Hang Seng China (Hong Kong-listed) 30 Index exhibits higher concentration and lower volatility compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Index. The top ten constituent stocks account for 74% of the index, significantly higher than the 56% for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [3][4] - The index has shown significant excess returns since its base date of January 3, 2000, with a cumulative increase of 368.50% by August 31, 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Index by 14.90% and 320.66%, respectively [5] - As of the end of August 2025, the Hang Seng China (Hong Kong-listed) 30 Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8, which is more favorable compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index's 10.2, indicating a better valuation advantage [7] Group 3 - Huabao Fund has established itself as a leading player in the ETF market, with a total asset management scale of 121.98 billion CNY as of September 11, 2025, and five ETFs exceeding 10 billion CNY in size, making it one of the companies with the most large-scale industry-themed ETFs [9][10] - The fund has developed a diverse range of ETFs focusing on high-tech strategic emerging industries, including medical, financial technology, and internet sectors, contributing to a robust "hard technology" ETF product matrix [10][11] - Huabao Fund has also focused on creating a "high dividend ETF family," which includes various high-dividend ETFs, catering to long-term capital allocation strategies [10]

Core Insights - Allianz Fund's first equity product, Allianz China Select Mixed Fund, was established in early September 2024 and has achieved a return rate exceeding 75% since its inception [1] - The Chinese stock market is entering a significant value re-evaluation cycle, with a notable increase in the value of equity asset allocation [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Three core drivers are identified for the current market cycle: improvement in corporate competitiveness and profitability, alleviation of risks including those in real estate, and strong supportive policy measures [2] - Market confidence is recovering, creating a positive feedback loop, with funds entering the market in a sequential manner [2] - Foreign investors view Chinese assets as a standalone asset class, with potential for new capital inflows if the market continues to show profitability [2][3] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Potential - The recent volatility in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to pressure on key sectors like the internet, which significantly impact major indices [4] - Despite the volatility, the Hong Kong market is still seen as having strong profit potential, with shared core drivers with the A-share market [4] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong is experiencing significant breakthroughs, with increasing global patent licensing and a shift towards sustainable business models [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The Allianz China Select Mixed Fund was established during a period of market pessimism, with a strategic focus on systematic investment frameworks indicating an impending earnings inflection point [4] - The fund maintains a high asset allocation to equities, as stock attractiveness is significantly higher than bonds [4] - Future investment strategies will focus on a "rule-based active management" approach, dynamically adjusting the allocation between dividend assets and quality tech assets [4][5]

Core Insights - Allianz Fund's first equity product, Allianz China Select Mixed Fund, was established in early September 2024 and has achieved a return rate exceeding 75% since its inception [1] - The fund's management emphasizes a "technology + dividend" dual strategy, particularly favoring high-quality technology assets for growth [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market is entering a significant value re-evaluation cycle driven by three core factors: improvement in corporate competitiveness and profitability, alleviation of risks including those in real estate, and strong supportive policy measures [2] - Market confidence is recovering, creating a positive feedback loop where main funds stabilize the market, followed by risk-sensitive funds responding quickly [2] - Foreign investors view Chinese assets as a standalone asset class, with potential for new capital inflows if the market continues to show profitability and fundamental improvements [2][3] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Potential - Recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market are attributed to pressures on key sectors like the internet, which significantly impact major indices [4] - Despite the volatility, the Hong Kong market is seen as having strong earning potential, with shared core drivers with the A-share market [4] - The innovative drug sector in Hong Kong is experiencing a "milestone breakthrough," with increasing global patent licensing and a shift towards sustainable business models [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Allianz China Select Mixed Fund was established during a period of market pessimism, with a strategic decision to build positions based on systematic investment frameworks indicating an impending earnings inflection point [4] - The fund maintains a high allocation to equities, as models indicate that stocks are significantly more attractive than bonds [4] - Future investment direction will focus on a "rule-based active management" approach, dynamically adjusting the allocation between dividend and high-quality technology assets [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Fund's first equity product, Allianz China Select Mixed Fund, has achieved a return rate exceeding 75% since its inception in early September 2024, indicating a favorable market environment for equity investments in China [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market is entering a significant value re-evaluation cycle driven by three core factors: improvement in corporate competitiveness and profitability, alleviation of risks including those in the real estate sector, and strong supportive policy measures [1] - Market confidence is recovering, creating a positive feedback loop where main funds stabilize the market, followed by risk-sensitive funds responding quickly as bank deposit attractiveness declines [1][2] Group 2: Foreign Investment Perspective - Foreign institutions view Chinese assets as a standalone asset class, with potential for new capital inflows if the market continues to show profitability and fundamental improvements [2] - Factors contributing to the shift in foreign investment attitudes include global recognition of China's technological competitiveness, the emergence of engineer dividends replacing demographic dividends, and the ongoing resolution of systemic risks in real estate [2] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Insights - The recent volatility in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to pressure on key sectors like the internet, which significantly impact indices such as the Hang Seng Index [2] - Despite the volatility, the Hong Kong market shows potential, sharing the same core drivers as the A-share market, with a greater potential for declining risk-free rates compared to Chinese government bonds [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Allianz China Select Mixed Fund maintains a high allocation, supported by a systematic investment framework that indicated an impending earnings inflection point and extremely low valuations at the time of establishment [2] - Future investment direction will focus on a "rule-based active management" approach, utilizing an enhanced GARP strategy to dynamically adjust the allocation between dividend assets and quality tech assets [2] - The technology sector is expected to see significant excess returns in the third quarter as its fundamentals improve [2][3]