Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down due to the large amount of low - price purchases by enterprises in the early stage. The domestic social inventory has rebounded, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - side is strong at the high position of positions. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [3][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 21,905 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 135 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,660 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 280,455 lots, down 13,538 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 791 lots, up 1,952 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 9,788 tons, down 178 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,466 tons, down 1,546 tons; the LME inventory is 130,225 tons, down 775 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,010 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,690 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 24.57 dollars/ton, down 1.62 dollars; the factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 57,100 tons, up 800 tons; the monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the housing completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters; the automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 18.43%, up 2.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 18.43%, up 2.38 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.22%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.16%, down 0.3 percentage points [3] Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; the housing construction area was 6.2502 trillion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; the new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 353.15 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 340.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%; at the end of May, the unsold commercial housing area was 774.27 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.15 million square meters. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. In the first five months, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year. Iran hopes to dialogue with the US and Israel to end the hostility, weakening the market risk - aversion sentiment [3]

Economic Indicators - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the growth for January to May was 6.3% [1] - Fixed asset investment nationwide grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, with a growth of 5.0% for January to May [1] Real Estate Market - In May, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the year-on-year decline continuing to narrow [2] Stock Market Updates - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced an adjustment to the list of Hong Kong Stock Connect eligible securities, with CATL being added effective June 16, 2025 [3] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.37%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.12%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.15% [4]

第一财经研究院发布的最新一期"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.50，回归50荣枯线以上。经济 学家们认为，中美贸易谈判出现积极信号，短期内国内经济景气度回暖。接下来应进一步提振信心、扩 大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转型升级的动力。以政策工具箱的灵活性来对冲不 确定性，以产业链供应链的韧性来抵御外部的冲击。 工业生产景气度保持平稳 经济学家们认为，接下来应进一步提振信心、扩大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转 型升级的动力。 尽管面临外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，但随着稳经济、稳就业政策措施加快落地 见效，中国主要经济指标有望保持平稳运行。 国家统计局将于6月16日发布5月份宏观经济数据。机构分析，工业、消费、投资等多项经济指标亮点频 现，国民经济应变克难稳定运行，发展质量持续提升。 中信证券分析，2024年同期基数走高，或对5月社会消费品零售总额同比增速构成一定拖累。分商品 看，在"国补"和"618"大促的带动下，家电、通讯器材类商品消费或延续较好表现。预计5月社零同比或 增长4.4%左右。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，5月份，节日需求释放带动相关服务业表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of various sectors in May, indicating a gradual recovery in certain areas while others continue to face challenges, particularly in real estate and industrial production. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of May 22, marking the first positive reading of the year [1][7] - Industrial sector operating rates showed mixed results, with steel and coking industries underperforming compared to April, while the textile and apparel sectors improved significantly [8][9] - As of the fourth week of May, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a 1.6 percentage point increase [8][9] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction funding availability rate remained stable compared to the end of April, with a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points to 58.9% as of May 27 [10][11] - The cement shipment rate recorded 40.5%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decline year-on-year [10][11] - The oil asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7% by May 28, down from 34.4% and 30.8% in the previous weeks [10][11] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in ten major cities increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 61.51 million, although it showed a decline from the previous month [12] - Real estate sales in May showed a reduced decline compared to April, with a 4.1% year-on-year drop in the average daily transaction area across 30 major cities [14][15] - Retail sales of passenger cars maintained a relatively strong state, with a year-on-year increase of 16% from May 1 to 25 [15] Group 4: Appliance Sales and Export Activity - Retail sales of major home appliances remained high, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing significant year-on-year growth rates of 66.1%, 75.2%, and 85.2% respectively during the week of May 19-25 [16][17] - Container throughput showed a slight slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% from May 5 to 25, down from 7.3% in April [18] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 17.2% as of May 31, indicating a potential shift in export dynamics [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a forecast for various macroeconomic indicators in May, indicating a mixed outlook for industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, trade, and monetary conditions, reflecting ongoing economic adjustments and external influences. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5, indicating a recovery in production and demand [1] - Key indicators show a decline in the operating rates of automotive tires, while the chemical industry shows varied performance [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing and real estate investments declining, while infrastructure investment remains stable [2] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in steel prices and an increase in asphalt operating rates, supporting stable infrastructure investment [2] Group 3: Retail Sales - Social retail sales are expected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in May, down from 5.1% in April, with service retail showing stronger growth [3] - The automotive market is experiencing cautious sentiment due to international uncertainties, impacting retail sales growth [3] Group 4: Trade - Exports are forecasted to grow by 5% year-on-year in May, while imports are expected to remain flat at 0% [4] - Factors such as increased port activity in Southeast Asia and tariff reductions are influencing export dynamics [4] Group 5: Monetary Conditions - New credit is expected to reach 800 billion yuan in May, with total social financing at 2 trillion yuan and M2 growth at 7.7% [5] - The article notes a shift in loan dynamics, with government bonds contributing significantly to social financing [5] Group 6: Inflation - CPI is projected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while PPI is expected to drop to -3% [5] - Price movements in fresh produce and energy are influencing inflation metrics [5] Group 7: Economic Forecasts - A summary table outlines various economic indicators for May 2025, including GDP growth, industrial added value, retail sales, fixed asset investment, exports, imports, trade surplus, CPI, PPI, and M2 growth [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - China's economic growth in April showed resilience overall, with industrial production and exports better than market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations [72]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks led to a "rush to export" to the US in mid - May, but the long - term uncertainty remains [33][72]. - The domestic real estate market is still in the bottom - grinding process, with the decline in real estate development investment widening, which continues to drag down economic growth [72]. - The second - quarter economic growth faces challenges compared to the first quarter, but the "rush to export" factor is beneficial for the stable growth of the second - quarter economy [72]. Summary by Related Content Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to April, national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year, down from 4.2% in January - March and lower than the market expectation of 4.26% [4][6]. - From January to April, broad infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.85% year - on - year, down from 11.5% in January - March but higher than the market expectation of 10.0% [6]. - From January to April, manufacturing investment increased by 8.8% year - on - year, down from 9.1% in January - March and lower than the market expectation of 9.1% [6]. - From January to April, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, with the decline expanding from 9.9% in January - March [6]. - In high - tech industries, the investment in information services, computer and office equipment manufacturing, aerospace and spacecraft equipment manufacturing, and professional technical services increased by 40.6%, 28.9%, 23.9%, and 17.6% respectively year - on - year [6]. - From January to April, equipment purchase investment increased by 18.2%, with a growth contribution rate of 64.5% [6]. Real Estate Market - From January to April, the sales area of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 28,262 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, narrowing from a 3.0% decline in January - March [7][9]. - From January to April, the sales volume of newly built commercial housing nationwide was 2.7035 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, with the decline expanding from 2.1% in January - March [9]. - In the first 28 days of May, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 240,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%, with the decline in April being larger and narrowing in May [10][12]. - The national second - hand housing price is still in the bottom - grinding stage, with the decline rate slowing down this year compared to last year [13][15]. Consumption - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.7174 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%, lower than the market expectation of 5.5% and down from 5.9% in March [16][18]. - From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 16.1845 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% (3.5% for the whole of last year); excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods were 14.7005 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% (3.8% for the whole of last year) [18]. - In April, the categories with relatively large year - on - year increases in the retail sales of goods by units above the designated size included household appliances and audio - visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, gold and silver jewelry, sports and entertainment products, and communication equipment, with increases of 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, 25.3%, 23.3%, and 19.9% respectively [21]. Service Industry - In April, the national service industry production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year, down from 6.3% in March [22][24]. - In April, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, wholesale and retail, and the financial industry increased by 10.4%, 8.9%, 6.8%, and 6.1% respectively year - on - year, faster than the service industry production index [24]. Foreign Trade - In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year, higher than the market forecast of 2.0%, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, better than the market forecast of a 6.0% decrease [25][27]. - In April, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%, exports to the EU increased by 8.27%, and exports to the US decreased by 21.03% [28][30]. - After the release of the joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks on May 12, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. The CCFI index of the US - West route on May 23 was significantly higher than that on May 9 [31][33]. Industry - In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year in real terms, higher than the market expectation of 5.2% [34][36]. - In April, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 97.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 percentage points [37][39]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the national capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 74.1%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [40][42]. - From January to April, the operating income of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 43.44 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, and the total profit was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [45]. - In April, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 3.0% year - on - year [43][45]. Finance - In April, the scale of social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the market expectation of 1.26 trillion yuan [46][48]. - In April, RMB loans in the credit statistics increased by 280 billion yuan, lower than the market expectation of 760 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 450 billion yuan [49][51]. - At the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%, higher than the market expectation of 7.5%; the balance of narrow - money (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, lower than the market expectation of 3.0% [52][54]. - From January to April, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises were 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 780 billion yuan [55][57]. Employment and Prices - In April, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [58][60]. - In April, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, in line with the market expectation [61][63]. - In April, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly better than the market expectation of a 2.8% decrease [66][68]. - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices continued to decline in May, slightly lower than the same period last year [64][65]. - The bulk commodity index fluctuated horizontally and declined slightly in May, and the PPI in May is expected to remain at a relatively low level [69][71].

Core Insights - Chengdu's industrial added value for the first four months of 2025 increased by 8.1% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Chengdu grew by 7.9% year-on-year, with private investment rising by 10.6% [1] - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 275.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [1] - Exports totaled 161.08 billion yuan, marking an increase of 11.9%, while imports amounted to 114.9 billion yuan, up by 10.1% [1]

Group 1 - In April, China's national economy showed stable growth in production and demand, with a generally stable employment situation and the emergence of new growth drivers, indicating a resilient economic performance under pressure [1][2] - The industrial production saw a rapid increase, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises growing by 6.1% year-on-year in April. Notably, the equipment manufacturing sector and high-tech manufacturing sector grew by 9.8% and 10.0% respectively [1] - The production of specific products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.7%, 51.5%, and 38.9% respectively [1] Group 2 - Market sales experienced stable growth, with the total retail sales of consumer goods reaching 37,174 billion yuan in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones has shown positive effects [1] - The retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.8%, 33.5%, and 26.9% respectively [1] - Fixed asset investment continued to expand, with a total of 147,024 billion yuan in investment (excluding rural households) in the first four months, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. Excluding real estate development investment, the growth rate was 8.0% [1] Group 3 - The total value of goods import and export reached 38,391 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Exports alone amounted to 22,645 billion yuan, growing by 9.3% [1] - In the first four months, the total value of goods import and export was 141,389 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [1]

提醒：北京时间10:00将公布中国1-4月工业增加值、社会消费品零售、城镇固定资产投资、房地产投资 等月度经济数据。 ...

工业增速或高位放缓 参与第一财经首席调研的经济学家对4月工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.62%，低于上月7.7%的公布 数据。 从先行指标来看，4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，在连续2个 月运行在扩张区间后落入50%以下。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群分析认为，4月份PMI出现回落，且回到荣枯线之下，表明经 济底部回升态势仍有不稳定性。新订单指数、新出口订单指数出现明显回落，表明外部环境复杂变化引 起的需求收缩倾向有所显现，必须高度重视。 华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘预计，4月工业增加值将同比增长6.5%左右。高频数据显示，4月高 炉、焦化开工率同比提高2.7个、15.1个百分点，但水泥开工率同比下行0.2个百分点。此外，关税影响 下，当月出口亦有所放缓。 本周中美经贸会谈取得阶段性重大成果，随着外部冲击减缓，以及稳增长、促消费政策发力，政策效应 进一步释放，国内有效需求不足状况有望改善。 二季度以来，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，中国经济表现如何，备受市场关注。国家统计局将于5月19日发 布4月宏观经济数据。机构预计，对等关税对中国经济的影响将逐渐显现。 面对外部 ...