Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain ends. Current supply pressure is small, but domestic supply is expected to increase at the end of August. Tire开工率 is divided, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the overall supply is expected to increase next week. Tire开工率 is divided, and the weakening of semi - steel tire开工率 has a more obvious impact on BR, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,530 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import and Export - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires from January to July was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] Sales - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, an approximately 42% increase compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Production and Sales - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery driven by factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old commercial vehicles, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] US Tire Imports - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 1，320,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 925 yuan/ton (+50), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,145 yuan/ton (-80), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,098 yuan/ton (+124.98), the NR basis was 288 yuan/ton (+62). The price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (-150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton (-120), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,795 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (-100), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,230 yuan/ton (-120) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.60 Thai baht/kg (-1.25), the price of Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.35 Thai baht/kg (-0.45), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.45) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+2.56%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (-0.60%) [4] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (-3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 265 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton (-250), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (-150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,201 yuan/ton (-203) [5] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis BR was 64.52% (-3.65%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (-250) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate due to the typhoon affecting the rubber tapping process in some producing areas, while synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate as the upstream raw material price support is insufficient but the automobile production and sales data is stronger than expected. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 15,905, the trading volume was 404,764 lots, the open interest was 186,459 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 179,930. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 270, the trading volume increased by 22,582 lots, the open interest increased by 4,607 lots, and the registered warrant volume increased by 860 [2]. - The natural rubber basis was -1,180, a decrease of 395 compared with the previous day. The Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, a decrease of 25 compared with the previous day; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, unchanged from the previous day; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 75, an increase of 50 compared with the previous day [2]. - The natural rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was -145, a decrease of 360 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -15, an increase of 15 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was -40, a decrease of 35 compared with the previous day [2]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 11,815, the trading volume was 63,265 lots, the open interest was 20,356 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 10,470. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 170, the trading volume decreased by 4,888 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,317 lots, and the registered warrant volume remained unchanged [2]. - The synthetic rubber basis was -248.33, a decrease of 170 compared with the previous day. The North China - East China butadiene rubber spread was 0, unchanged from the previous day; the South China - East China butadiene rubber spread was -50, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The synthetic rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was 65, a decrease of 190 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -5, a decrease of 5 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 5, an increase of 5 compared with the previous day [2]. Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In domestic producing areas, affected by the typhoon, there will be heavy precipitation in Hainan, Guangxi, and other places, and also precipitation in Yunnan and other places. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.91%, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the previous week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.71%, an increase of 1.39% compared with the previous week [2]. Inventory Side - As of August 15, 2025, the weekly warrant total inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 213,190 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 401,500 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons compared with the previous week; the bonded area inventory was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 11,531 tons, a decrease of 1,135 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, and major producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of August 15, 2025, the purchase price of rubber latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 61.2 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 1,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 15, 2025, the daily average price of butadiene (99.6%) in China was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 13, 2025, the weekly import inventory of butadiene in China was 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Demand Side - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, an increase of 2.09% compared with the previous week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 72.25%, a decrease of 2.28% compared with the previous week. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.593 million vehicles, a decrease of 311,500 vehicles compared with the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in July was 2.287 million vehicles, a decrease of 248,500 vehicles compared with the previous month; the sales volume of trucks in July was 264,000 vehicles, a decrease of 52,200 vehicles compared with the previous month. The automobile market has entered the traditional off - season. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12% respectively [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Natural rubber may fluctuate due to typhoon - affected production areas and weak downstream demand [2]. - Synthetic rubber may show a weak - fluctuating trend because of insufficient upstream raw material price support and weak demand [2]. - Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber (14900 - 15100 and 16200 - 16500) and butadiene rubber (11200 - 11400 and 12200 - 12400) [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Natural Rubber - **Market Data**: On August 14, 2025, the closing price was 15635, down 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 382182 lots, an increase of 66725 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 181852 lots, a decrease of 582 lots; the registered warrant volume was 179070, a decrease of 1130; the basis was - 785, up 165 [2]. - **Supply**: Future precipitation is expected in major overseas production areas, and domestic production areas are affected by typhoon "Yang", with large precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, and some precipitation in Hainan and Yunnan [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the weekly inventory of SHFE natural rubber warehouses was 200.33 thousand tons, an increase of 1.9 thousand tons; the weekly social inventory of Qingdao natural rubber was 40.15 million tons, an increase of 21.2 million tons; the bonded area inventory was 38.57 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons [2]. - **Cost**: As of August 11, 2025, the glue purchase price in Songkhla, Thailand was 51.2 baht/gram, unchanged; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in Hainan was 15400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Demand**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly operating rate of Shandong all - steel tires was 63.07%, up 2.09% from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of Chinese semi - steel tires was 72.25%, down 2.28% from the previous week [2]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: On August 13, 2025, the closing price was 11645, down 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 68153 lots, a decrease of 12028 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 23673 lots, a decrease of 2884 lots; the registered warrant volume was 10470, unchanged; the basis was - 78.33, up 105 [2]. - **Supply**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.91%, down 1.8% from the previous week; the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.71%, up 1.39% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 11531 tons, a decrease of 1135 tons [2]. - **Cost**: The international oil price declined, the butadiene production capacity increased, and the overall balance in the Northeast region was achieved. As of August 11, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.6%) was 9375 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Demand**: The demand is weak, and the car market has entered the traditional off - season. In July 2025, the sales volume of trucks was 264 thousand, a decrease of 52.2 thousand from the previous month; from January to July 2025, the cumulative production and sales volume of Chinese automobiles were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with increased rainfall in major production areas, raw material output is expected to be limited, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and tire factory operating rates are unlikely to rise. Rubber prices are expected to have support at the lower end [5] - For BR, supply may increase slightly, and downstream demand has no highlights. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The downward space depends on the price fluctuation of upstream butadiene. BR may follow the raw material price down, but the strong natural rubber price and continuous tire replacement demand provide some support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,610 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,755 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import data: In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from the same period in 2024 [2] - Global natural rubber: In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to drop 1.5% to 119,100 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month; consumption was expected to increase 0.7% to 127,100 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of the year, cumulative production was expected to drop 1.1% to 607,600 tons, and cumulative consumption increased 1% to 771,500 tons [2] - Cote d'Ivoire: In the first 7 months of 2025, rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period in 2024. In July, exports increased 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - Heavy - truck market: In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an increase of about 42% from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - US tire imports: In the first half of 2025, the US imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% increase year - on - year. Passenger car tire imports increased 3% to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased 10% to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased 13% to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased 22% to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased 5% to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On August 14, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,000 yuan/ton (+60); the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,200 yuan/ton (-40); the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,892 yuan/ton (-71.95); the NR basis was 269.00 yuan/ton (+7.00); whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (unchanged); mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (-20); 3L spot was 14,800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 62.50 Thai baht/kg (-0.20); Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20); Thai cup lump was 49.80 Thai baht/kg (+0.50); the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (-0.30) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.06% (+0.80%); the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.71% (-0.27%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (-10,990.00); the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 619,852 tons (-11,918); the RU futures inventory was 176,280 tons (-1,350); the NR futures inventory was 42,235 tons (+2,519) [4] BR - Spot and spreads: On August 14, 2025, the BR basis was - 150 yuan/ton (+75); the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged); the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton (unchanged); the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,750 yuan/ton (+50); the price of private BR in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (unchanged); the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,103 yuan/ton (+9) [4] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 64.52% (-3.65%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 6,990 tons (-300); the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,450 tons (-700) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows an oscillating performance. There is no clear logic for rubber as a whole, and it may continue to follow a relatively strong oscillating trend. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on RU2509 and short on RU2601 [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU main contract price is 15,800, down 60 from the previous value; NR main contract price is 12,610, down 55; BR main contract price is 11,750, down 75 [3] - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 is 324.4 yen/kg, up 2.4; Sicom TF is 172.4 cents/kg, unchanged [3] - **Futures Spreads**: Various spreads such as inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and cross - market spreads have different changes, e.g., RU2601 - RU2509 is 1010, down 15; RU - NR is 3190, down 5 [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - In Thailand, the price of glue is 54.20 baht/kg, up 0.20; the price of cup rubber is 49.80 baht/kg, up 0.50. In Hainan and Yunnan, the prices of glue for concentrated latex and whole milk also have corresponding changes, e.g., Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 14,400 yuan/ton, up 100 [3][5] 3.3 Factory Costs and Profits - The production profits of concentrated latex in Thailand and Hainan remain unchanged at 814 and 670 respectively. The gross profits of Thai smoked sheet rubber and 20 - grade rubber have decreased, e.g., Thai smoked sheet rubber is 2615, down 140 [3] 3.4 Domestic Spot - The prices of light - colored rubber, dark - colored rubber, latex, synthetic rubber, and mixed rubber have different changes, e.g., Vietnam 3L is 14,800, down 50; Styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 12,300, up 50 [3] 3.5 Overseas Spot - The CIF prices of various rubbers such as Thai mixed rubber, Malaysian mixed rubber, and Thai standard rubber have decreased, e.g., Thai mixed rubber CIF is 1805, down 10 [3] 3.6 Futures - Spot Spreads - The spreads between futures and spot prices, including RU spreads, NR spreads, and spot spreads, have different changes, e.g., RU - Thai mixed rubber is 190, down 25; NR - Thai standard delivery profit is - 500, up 26 [3] 3.7 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index remains unchanged at 98.0707. The US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate is 7.1350, down 0.007. SHIBOR - overnight remains unchanged at 1.315, while SHIBOR - seven - day is 1.434, up 0.001 [3] 3.8 Supply, Inventory, and Demand - On the supply side, raw material prices in Thailand and China have changes. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 127.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons with a decline of 0.85%. On the demand side, as of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, up 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, down 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for RU and NR is cautiously bullish, while the rating for BR is neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The rainfall in major rubber - producing areas at home and abroad is expected to increase, which may limit raw material output and strengthen the cost - side support for rubber. The arrival volume at Qingdao Port has decreased, but the import volume of alternative indicators in Yunnan has rebounded. With stable imports and lackluster downstream demand, rubber prices are expected to remain strong. For BR, the supply may increase slightly, and the downstream demand remains lackluster. It may follow the raw material price trend, but it is also affected by the strong price of surrounding natural rubber and continuous tire replacement demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. The NR main contract was 12,610 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from the same period in 2024. - ANRPC predicted that in June 2025, the global natural rubber production would decrease by 1.5% to 1,191,000 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month, and the consumption would increase by 0.7% to 1,271,000 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of the year, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.1% to 6,076,000 tons, while the cumulative consumption increased by 1% to 7,715,000 tons. - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month. - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, an approximately 42% increase from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% to 84.89 million, truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% to 32.32 million, aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% to 132,000, motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% to 1.88 million, and bicycle tire imports increased by 5% to 3.15 million [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On August 13, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,000 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+65), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,861 yuan/ton (- 41.18), the NR basis was 262 yuan/ton (- 7). The price of whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+40), and the price of 3L spot was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,805 US dollars/ton (- 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 0 yuan/ton (+50), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,520 yuan/ton (+40). - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 62.50 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20), the price of Thai latex was 54.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.80 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.30). -开工率: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.06% (+0.80%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.71% (- 0.27%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (- 10,990), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 619,852 tons (- 11,918), the RU futures inventory was 176,280 tons (- 1,350), and the NR futures inventory was 42,235 tons (+2,519) [4] 顺丁橡胶 - Spot and Spread: On August 13, 2025, the BR basis was 50 yuan/ton (+275), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton (+150), the price of private - owned cis - polybutadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (+150), and the import profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,112 yuan/ton (+42). -开工率: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 68.17% (- 4.30%). - Inventory: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 7,290 tons (- 230), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 24,150 tons (+350) [4][5] Strategy - For RU and NR, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish. With expected increased rainfall in major producing areas, raw material output may be limited, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. With lackluster downstream demand, focus on the raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories. - For BR, it is rated neutral. The supply may increase slightly, and downstream demand remains lackluster. It may follow the raw material price trend, but is also affected by strong natural rubber prices and continuous tire replacement demand [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for RU and NR is cautiously bullish; the rating for BR is neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views - Market sentiment is positive, and rubber prices are expected to remain strong. For RU and NR, with expected increased rainfall in major production areas, raw material output is likely to be limited, strengthening cost - side support. Domestic imports are expected to remain stable. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and attention should be paid to raw material procurement willingness of downstream factories. For BR, supply may increase slightly, demand remains stable, and it may follow raw materials to weaken but is affected by strong natural rubber prices and continuous tire replacement demand [5] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton. In the spot market, Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,760 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 market price was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Import and Export Data - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from 613,000 tons in the same period of 2024. In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from 794,831 tons in the same period of 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] Consumption and Production Data - The ANRPC's June 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in June would decrease by 1.5% to 119,100 tons, a 14.5% increase from the previous month; consumption would increase by 0.7% to 127,100 tons, a 0.1% increase from the previous month. In the first half of 2025, global natural rubber cumulative production was expected to decrease by 1.1% to 6.076 million tons, while cumulative consumption would increase by 1% to 7.715 million tons [2] Sales Data - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, an approximately 42% increase from 58,300 vehicles in the same period of last year [2] US Tire Import Data - In the first half of 2025, the US imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% to 132,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% to 3.15 million [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On August 12, 2025, the RU basis was - 1,060 yuan/ton (- 55), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+ 65), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,784 yuan/ton (- 105.10), the NR basis was 262 yuan/ton (- 7). Whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton (+ 40), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 50 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,520 yuan/ton (+ 40) [4] - **Raw Materials**: Thai smoked sheet was 62.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.74), Thai latex was 54.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 49.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.65), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.70 Thai baht/kg (- 0.65) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.06% (+ 0.80%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.71% (- 0.27%) [4] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,288,849 tons (- 4,853), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 619,852 tons (- 11,918), the RU futures inventory was 176,280 tons (- 1,350), and the NR futures inventory was 42,235 tons (+ 2,519) [4] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On August 12, 2025, the BR basis was - 75 yuan/ton (+ 110), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was quoted at 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was quoted at 11,750 yuan/ton (+ 50), Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 1,012 yuan/ton (+ 142) [4] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 68.17% (- 4.30%) [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,290 tons (- 230), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,150 tons (+ 350) [5]

ANRPC最新发布的2025年6月报告预测，6月全球天胶产量料降1.5%至119.1万吨，较上月增加14.5%；天胶消费量 料增0.7%至127.1万吨，较上月增加0.1%。上半年，全球天胶累计产量料降1.1%至607.6万吨，累计消费量则增1% 至771.5万吨。 化工日报 | 2025-08-12 青岛港口库存降幅增加 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15755元/吨，较前一日变动+205元/吨。NR主力合约12620元/吨，较前一日变动+215 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14750元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14580元/吨， 较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1805美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1755美元/吨，较前一日变动+25美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11700元/吨，较前一日变动+250元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署8月7日公布的数据显示，2025年7月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计63.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to increased precipitation in production areas affecting the tapping process and a de - stocking trend in inventory. Synthetic rubber prices may fluctuate as the bearish market sentiment is digested. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of natural rubber at 14,800 - 15,000 and 15,700 - 16,000 respectively, and those of butadiene rubber at 10,800 - 11,000 and 11,800 - 12,000 respectively [1] Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - **Natural Rubber**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price was 15,495, up 950 from the previous day; the trading volume was 261,478 lots; the open interest of the active futures contract was 183,004 lots, down 2.24%; the registered warrant volume was 176,470, down 40; the basis was - 1,020, down 950; the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was - 125, up 25; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was - 150, unchanged; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 175, unchanged; the near - month to continuous - first month spread was - 75, up 5; the continuous - first to continuous - second month spread was - 30, down 20; the continuous - first to continuous - third month spread was - 25, unchanged [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price was 11,505, down 10; the trading volume was 51,579 lots, down 2,366; the open interest of the active futures contract was 28,087 lots, down 2,345; the registered warrant volume was 10,310, down 230; the basis was - 138.33, up 10; the North - East China butadiene rubber spread was unchanged; the South - East China butadiene rubber spread was - 50, unchanged; the near - month to continuous - first month spread was 55, up 85; the continuous - first to continuous - second month spread was - 5, up 10; the continuous - first to continuous - third month spread was - 20, down 5 [1] Supply Side - **Natural Rubber**: In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major production areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with Thailand issuing a heavy rain warning. In domestic production areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, etc., while Hainan has less precipitation [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week. As of August 6, the daily post - tax profit margin of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion paint method was - 300.88 yuan/ton, down 154.86 yuan/ton from the previous day; that of China's S8S solution paint method was 522.12 yuan/ton, down 141.6 yuan/ton from the previous day; the post - tax profit margin of butadiene rubber solution polymerization process was - 1,141.58 yuan/ton, down 176.99 yuan/ton from the previous day. Synthetic rubber - related product devices are relatively stable [1] Inventory Side - **Natural Rubber**: As of August 1, 2025, the weekly total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, down 2,380 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 413,600 tons, down 6,100 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 87,700 tons, down 1,200 tons from last week [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, up 142 tons from last week [1] Cost Side - **Natural Rubber**: The global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, and major domestic and foreign production areas have fully started tapping. As of August 6, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 54 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in September. Coupled with the decline in US employment data, crude oil prices are expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw material butadiene has decreased. As of August 6, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 342.5 yuan/ton, up 62.5 yuan/ton from the previous day. As of August 6, 2025, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 14,700 tons, up 4,300 tons from last week [1] Demand Side - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, down 3.94% from last week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 74.63%, down 0.87% from last week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail volume of the national automobile market was 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in June was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales volume of trucks in China in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. Tire supporting demand has increased [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recently, the support from cost and supply side has loosened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of cis - butadiene rubber have both risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. Production enterprise inventories are generally decreasing, while trade enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. With short - term shutdown and maintenance expected for some plants and a possible restart of others, supply is expected to decrease slightly. However, due to weak demand expectations, production enterprise inventories may still increase. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, with limited upward space. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2509 contract is expected to be between 11,400 - 11,700 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract's open interest is 28,087, a decrease of 2,345. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 现货市场 - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions have increased, with increases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 820 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.12 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 67.64 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.63 US dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 65.16 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.13 US dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,375 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.97%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.2%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 72.46%, an increase of 4.83 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons. The weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.262 million pieces, an increase of 80,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.523 million pieces, an increase of 108,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, a decrease of 1.5 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, a decrease of 0.91 days. As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber export volume is 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%. From January to June 2025, the total export volume is 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber import volume is 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%. From January to June 2025, the total import volume is 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2].