Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided text. The report mainly presents a series of data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, positions, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Position Data**: On July 2, the closing price of the main contract was 11,260, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 35. The position of the main contract was 27,889, a daily increase of 478. The trading volume was 89,875, a daily decrease of 2,622 and a weekly increase of 52,061. The warehouse receipt quantity was 7,700, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,070 [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene - styrene basis was 640 on July 2, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 35. The 7 - 8 spread was 150, with no daily or weekly change. The 8 - 9 spread was 82, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 5 [4]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,500 on July 2, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50. The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,350, and the Qilu ex - factory price remained at 11,700 [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was 248 on July 2, a daily increase of 282 and a weekly increase of 486. The futures processing profit was 8, a daily increase of 332 and a weekly increase of 571. The import profit was - 83,741, a daily decrease of 66 and a weekly increase of 103. The export profit was - 267, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 207 [4]. b. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price on July 2 was 8,875, a daily decrease of 325 and a weekly decrease of 525. The Jiangsu market price was 8,950, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 400. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,200, with a weekly decrease of 400 [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export Profits**: The carbon - four extraction profit decreased from 2,790 to 2,116. The butene oxidation - dehydrogenation profit was - 284 on July 2, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly decrease of 50. The import profit was - 121, a daily decrease of 121 and a weekly decrease of 224. The export profit was - 267, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 207 [4]. c. Downstream Profits - The butadiene - styrene production profit remained at 613 on July 2, with a weekly increase of 350. The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 840, with a weekly increase of 340 [4]. d. Inter - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 13,764 on July 2, a daily decrease of 448 and a weekly decrease of 19,911. The NR - BR spread was - 15,614, a daily decrease of 513 and a weekly decrease of 19,801. The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,450, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. e. Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,100 on July 2, a daily decrease of 50 and no weekly change [4].

jis 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/2 | | | 指标 | 5/30 | 6/24 | 6/27 | 6/30 | 7/1 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11145 | 11230 | 11275 | 11250 | 11260 | 10 | 30 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 28417 | 10659 | 33472 | 28291 | 27411 | -880 | 16752 | | | : 11 | 主力合约成交量 | 151323 | 110263 | 96846 | 96678 | 92497 | -4181 | -17766 | | | | 仓单数量 | 12270 | 6630 | 7700 | 7700 | 7700 | 0 | 1070 | | | | 虚实比 | 11.58 | 8.04 | 21.74 | 18.37 | 17.80 | -1 | 10 | | | | 顺丁基差 | ર્કર | 32 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for RU: Neutral [5] - Investment rating for NR: Neutral [5] - Investment rating for BR: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For natural rubber, although the upstream fire made the market strong, its impact on supply was limited. The increase in downstream all - steel tire operating rate increased raw material consumption, but the increase in arrivals and domestic production led to a slight increase in port and social inventories, putting pressure on prices [5] - For butadiene rubber, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply is in a loss situation with expected declining output, but supply has increased this week. The tire factory's operating rate has increased, but terminal orders haven't improved, and the procurement intention has declined. It follows the price of upstream raw materials [5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: RU main contract closed at 14,040 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; NR main contract at 12,145 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market at 14,000 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber at 13,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,710 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber at 1,650 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars/ton; BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical at 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua at 11,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Semi - steel tire enterprises' shipments haven't improved, with high domestic purchase pressure and support from the export market. Many enterprises continue to control production. All - steel tire enterprises are relatively stable, and some factories may adjust price policies [2] - In May 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. From January to May, the output was 4.88962 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [2] - In May 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [2] - In May 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume was 1.932 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail volume was 8.811 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [2] - In May 2025, China's truck and bus tire exports were 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative exports were 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85%. The export average price was 2,095.8 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.56% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 26, 2025, RU basis was - 40 yuan/ton (- 20); RU main - mixed rubber spread was 90 yuan/ton (+ 20); smoked sheet rubber import profit was - 6,329 yuan/ton (+ 177.29); NR basis was 102 yuan/ton (- 164); whole latex at 14,000 yuan/ton (+ 250); mixed rubber at 13,950 yuan/ton (+ 250); 3L spot at 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 100); STR20 at 1,710 US dollars/ton (+ 25); whole latex - 3L spread was - 650 yuan/ton (+ 150); mixed rubber - styrene - butadiene spread was 2,050 yuan/ton (+ 250) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet at 65.79 baht/kg (+ 0.10); Thai latex at 57.25 baht/kg (- 0.25); Thai cup lump at 46.95 baht/kg (- 0.25); Thai latex - cup lump at 10.30 baht/kg (unchanged) [4] - Operating rate: All - steel tire operating rate was 62.23% (+ 0.84%); semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.40% (- 1.14%) [4] - Inventory: Natural rubber social inventory was 1,286,145 tons (+ 7,842); Qingdao Port natural rubber inventory was 617,288 tons (+ 10,313); RU futures inventory was 192,840 tons (- 230); NR futures inventory was 32,256 tons (- 2,620) [4] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 26, 2025, BR basis was 105 yuan/ton (+ 30); butadiene Sinopec ex - factory price at 9,600 yuan/ton (unchanged); BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical at 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged); BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua at 11,350 yuan/ton (unchanged); Shandong private butadiene rubber at 11,300 yuan/ton (unchanged); Northeast Asian import profit of butadiene rubber at - 1,043 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] - Operating rate: High - cis butadiene rubber operating rate was 68.54% (+ 2.22%) [5] - Inventory: Butadiene rubber trader inventory was 6,370 tons (- 450); butadiene rubber enterprise inventory was 27,650 tons (+ 700) [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: June 27, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On June 26, the closing price of the main contract was 11,195, down 30 from the previous day and 575 from the previous week; the position was 36,383, up 28,760 from the previous day and 21,249 from the previous week; the trading volume was 108,330, up 70,516 from the previous day and 27,228 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 6,530, down 100 from the previous day and the previous week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 30 higher than the previous day and 275 higher than the previous week; the 7 - 8 month spread was 120, down 30 from the previous day and 20 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 month spread was 90, up 10 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; the Chuanhua market price was 11,350, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The spot processing profit was - 85, up 153 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week; the on - disk processing profit was - 440, up 123 from the previous day and down 269 from the previous week; the import profit was - 83,843, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,291 from the previous week; the export profit was - 474, unchanged from the previous day and up 245 from the previous week [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,250, down 150 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,250, down 100 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 from the previous week [4]. - **Processing and Import - Export**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 54, up 180 from the previous day and down 210 from the previous week; the import profit was 179, down 100 from the previous day and 579 from the previous week; the export profit was - 1,021, up 87 from the previous day and down 390 from the previous week [4]. Downstream Products - **Production Profit**: The butadiene - styrene rubber production profit was 263, unchanged from the previous day and down 325 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was 204, down 45 from the previous day and up 206 from the previous week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 960 (data incomplete), unchanged from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week [4]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spread**: RU - BR was - 22,343, down 28,490 from the previous day and 21,239 from the previous week; NR - BR was - 24,238, down 28,425 from the previous day and 21,384 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 2,400, up 250 from the previous day and 370 from the previous week; the 3L - butadiene - styrene rubber spread was 2,750, up 100 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week [4]. - **Intra - Variety Spread**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 250, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week; the butadiene - styrene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,150, up 50 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week [4].

华联期货分析称，前产区物候正常，尽管价格下跌，但割胶积极性仍然偏强而且有惯性。今年天然橡胶 进口数据增长幅度较大，前五月同比增超20%，但青岛干胶库存近月总体横盘为主，最新一期累库 1.7%。国内方面，国内房地产依然拖累橡胶需求，1至5月房地产开发投资同比跌幅加深；重卡销量在 以旧换新政策刺激下边际改善，5月同比涨6%左右，2025年1-5月，重卡累计销量同比增约1%。全钢胎 开工率反弹超越去年同期水平，半钢胎开工率保持高位，工厂和渠道轮胎成品库存均偏高。操作上，多 单持有，ru09支撑位13500附近。 6月26日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，天然橡胶期货主力合约开盘报13750.00元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，天然橡胶主力最高触及13995.00元，下方探低13700.00元，涨幅达1.56%附 近。 西南期货表示，海外进口货源或呈现季节性减少，产区原料未来有增量预期，本周期轮胎样本企业产能 利用率表现基本稳定，胶价或继续呈现宽幅震荡。 申银万国期货指出，周三天胶止跌反弹，天然橡胶产胶区新胶供应受到降雨等气候影响，原料胶价格受 到一定支撑。青岛地区总库存近期波动，关注后续是否能够持续去库 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased by over 2%, currently priced at 14,025 yuan per ton [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, rubber prices rebounded mainly due to rainfall interference in major production areas at home and abroad, a slight recovery in raw material prices, and the support of the rubber cost - end, as well as the drive of the rebound of surrounding butadiene rubber. The supply side continued a slight upward trend, and the demand side had no obvious highlights. However, due to the good production profit of tire factories, there was rigid procurement of raw materials, and the operating rate also showed a slight upward trend this week. The expected increase in future supply pressure will limit the upward space [5] - This week, there were no maintenance or restart devices for butadiene rubber, and the supply side was expected to remain stable. The recent production losses have been repaired but are still near the break - even point, and it is expected that there will be no substantial increase in future output for the time being. With the restart of the previous maintenance devices of downstream tire factories, the operating rate of semi - steel tires rebounded month - on - month. Given the current acceptable production profit of tire factories, it is expected that the factories will have a strong willingness to maintain the current operating rate. However, semi - steel tire factories still face the pressure of increasing finished product inventory. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber itself is not prominent. From the perspective of surrounding price differences, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the downstream tire replacement demand still exists. Future prices may fluctuate with the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,880 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,655 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, China's output of rubber tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [1] - **Passenger Car Market Data**: In May this year, the retail volume of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May this year, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Price Differences**: On June 19, 2025, the RU basis was - 30 yuan/ton (- 20), the price difference between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 150 yuan/ton (- 10), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,922 yuan/ton (- 91.16), the NR basis was 22.00 yuan/ton (- 27.00); the whole latex was 14,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the mixed rubber was 13,880 yuan/ton (+ 30), the 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,715 US dollars/ton (- 10), the price difference between the whole latex and the 3L was - 900 yuan/ton (+ 50); the price difference between the mixed rubber and the styrene - butadiene rubber was 1,680 yuan/ton (+ 30) [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 68.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.95), the price of Thai glue was 57.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.65), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 9.45 Thai baht/kg (- 0.40) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.39% (+ 2.69%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.54% (+ 1.56%) [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,278,303 tons (+ 3,253.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 606,975 tons (+ 1,410), the RU futures inventory was 193,070 tons (- 460), and the NR futures inventory was 34,876 tons (+ 13,003) [3] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Price Differences**: On June 19, 2025, the BR basis was - 170 yuan/ton (- 30), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 745 yuan/ton (+ 0) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.32% (+ 1.30%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,820 tons (+ 610), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,950 tons (- 700) [3] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. For BR, also maintain a neutral stance [4][5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Japanese rubber futures have seen a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 2% to 303 yen per kilogram [1]

化工日报 | 2025-06-13 轮胎厂开工率环比回升 我国乘联分会发布的最新数据显示，今年5月，全国乘用车市场零售量达到193.2万辆，同比增长13.3%，环比增长 10.1%。今年1-5月，乘用车市场累计零售量达到881.1万辆，同比增长9.1%。 市场分析 天然橡胶： 现货及价差：2025-06-12，RU基差15元/吨（+5），RU主力与混合胶价差-15元/吨（-75），烟片胶进口利润-7639元/ 吨（-411.41），NR基差169.00元/吨（+68.00）；全乳胶13600元/吨（-300），混合胶13600元/吨（-230），3L现货14850 元/吨（-200）。STR20#报价1685美元/吨（-30），全乳胶与3L价差-1250元/吨（-100）；混合胶与丁苯价差1800元/吨 （-230）； 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13585元/吨，较前一日变动-305元/吨。NR主力合约11930元/吨，较前一日变动-285 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13600元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13600元/吨， 较前一日变动-230元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical factors, and proposes corresponding trading strategies for natural rubber (RU), 20 - number rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR). It takes into account various factors such as tire production line operating rates, inventory levels, international trade data, and global economic indicators to assess the market trends of different rubber varieties and provides investment suggestions accordingly. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **RU Natural Rubber**: The price of the RU main 09 contract fluctuated during the period from May 20 to June 13, 2025, with the price range from 13405 to 14945 points. The prices of related products such as WF, Vietnam 3L blend, Thai smoked sheets, and local standard - two also showed corresponding fluctuations [1][11][15]. - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: The NR main 07/08 contract price also fluctuated, and the prices of related products such as smoked sheet rubber cargoes, Thai standard near - port cargoes, and Thai blend near - port cargoes had different changes [1][11][15]. - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The price of the BR main 07/08 contract fluctuated, and the prices of related products such as Shandong - area Daqing Petrochemical cis - butadiene, Shandong private cis - butadiene, and East China market Yangzi Petrochemical cis - butadiene also changed accordingly [2][7][12]. Important News - **Automobile Market**: In May 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume reached 1.932 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. In May 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]. - **Rubber Trade**: From January to April 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and compound rubber were 1.573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the total exports to China were 1.005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38%. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and compound rubber were 586,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%, and the total exports to China were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 282% [24][49]. Logical Analysis - **Tire Production**: The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tire production lines showed different trends, with changes in inventory levels. For example, in June 2025, the operating rate of the domestic all - steel tire production line was 61.2%, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%, and the operating rate of the semi - steel tire production line was 78.0%, a year - on - year increase of 3.0% [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory levels of domestic bonded areas and production enterprises had different trends. For example, in April 2025, the inventory of domestic large - scale enterprises' finished products increased by 3.9% year - on - year, and the inventory of Qingdao Bonded Area had both increases and decreases [3][16]. - **Climate and Other Factors**: The El Niño index and other climate - related factors had an impact on the rubber market. For example, in April 2025, the El Niño index was - 0.1°C, and its 5 - month average decreased by 1.8°C year - on - year, which was negative for the RU single - side [8]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: For the RU main 09 contract, there were suggestions of holding long positions, holding short positions, and waiting and seeing at different times. For the NR main 07/08 contract, there were also corresponding strategies such as holding long positions, holding short positions, and waiting and seeing [3][8][13]. - **Arbitrage**: For combinations such as RU2509 - NR2509 and 2*RU2509 - 5*SP2509, there were suggestions of holding positions and setting stop - losses [3][8][13]. - **Options**: Generally, the suggestion was to wait and see [3][8][13].