Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to take a wait - and - see approach. Palm oil should be treated as range - bound with a downward bias, soybean oil's basis is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and rapeseed oil's basis is supported by the near - term tight supply situation [5] Report's Core View - Supply: Palm oil is bearish in the near - term, soybean oil is neutral, and rapeseed oil is bearish overall but bullish in the near - term. Reasons include high palm oil inventories in Malaysia, expected increase in China's palm oil imports in Q4, limited positive impact from the USDA report, and short - term raw material shortages for rapeseed oil [5] - Demand: A wait - and - see approach is recommended. Factors include the active promotion of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the undetermined US biodiesel RVO, stable domestic consumption and export support for soybean oil, and the upcoming peak consumption season for rapeseed oil in winter [5] - Inventory: A wait - and - see approach is advised. China's total oil inventory remains high, rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking due to raw material shortages, palm oil has inventory replenishment expectations, and the destination of imported US soybeans for soybean oil needs attention [5] - Macro and Policy: Bearish. The USDA report's export data was lower than expected, Indonesia's B50 implementation has uncertainties, the US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain, and Canada plans to increase biodiesel production capacity [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Impact Factors: Analyzes supply, demand, inventory, and macro - policy factors, and provides corresponding investment views and trading strategies [5] - Trading Strategies: Suggests shorting the palm oil 01 contract, buying call options for protection, and conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on Y01 and shorting P01 [5] PART TWO: Market Review - Presents the closing prices of major oil contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5 [7][11][12] PART THREE: Oil Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia [21][23][25] - Indonesia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Displays data on Indonesia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [34][39] - Malaysia's Monthly Supply and Demand: Presents data on Malaysia's palm oil production, domestic consumption, exports, and ending inventory [40][45] - India's Monthly Imports and International Bean - Palm Price Difference: Shows India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [46][50] - China's Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Displays data on China's palm oil imports, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit [52][54][56] - Weather and US Soybean Production: Shows the temperature and precipitation distribution in soybean - producing areas in the US, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the US soybean's good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress [63][66][72] - US and Brazil Export Situation: Presents data on US soybean exports and Brazil's soybean exports [76][80] - China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Displays data on China's soybean arrivals, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory [90] - Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation: Shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Canadian and European rapeseed - producing areas, as well as Canada's soil moisture [91][100] - Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival: Presents data on rapeseed exports from producing areas and China's rapeseed arrivals [102][104] - China's Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Displays data on China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货量, and inventory [109][113]

Report Information - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The oil and fat sector rebounded from a low level, and the strategy is mainly to go long in bands [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders quoted prices with Dongguan factories' third - grade rapeseed oil at 01 + 620 and first - grade rapeseed oil at 01 + 720. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil was 01 + 270 in November and 01 + 280 from December to January. Guangdong traders' palm oil quotes were stable [7] - **Market Analysis**: Rapeseed oil continuously increased positions and rose, showing the strongest trend. Due to the interruption of imported rapeseed supply, domestic coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing has not recovered, and rapeseed oil inventory has been continuously depleted. The domestic spot basis is stable with a slight upward trend. Soybean oil has limited downward price space based on import cost calculations and has buying value but is currently suppressed by high inventory. Palm oil is expected to see a decrease in production and inventory starting from November after the high - production reality in October was confirmed by the MPOB report [7] 2. Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Driven by favorable weather, improved labor supply, and high - yield new plantations, Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2025 is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, which may lead to higher - than - expected inventory and put pressure on the benchmark futures price [8] - **Export Data**: From November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 190,533 tons, a 49.5% decrease compared to the same period in October. Exports to China were 0.57 million tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons compared to the previous month [8] - **Price Spread**: On November 12, 2025, the price of Indonesian crude palm oil was $1,070, and that of Malaysian crude palm oil was equivalent to $987, with a price spread of $83, up $11 from the previous day and down from $102 in the same period last week [8] 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs of spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [12][13][20]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of palm oil is limited, and there is a risk of a second decline [1]. - With the stabilization of US soybeans, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil should continue to widen [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,744 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.30% change and 8,664 yuan/ton at night with a -0.91% change; soybean oil futures closed at 8,288 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.61% change; rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,840 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.66% change. The trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures decreased by 109,457, 37,411, and 52,411 lots respectively [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong is 8,610 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 10,210 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan. The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions is - 124 yuan/ton, 322 yuan/ton, and 370 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures is 1,096 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures is - 456 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil is - 90 yuan/ton, 224 yuan/ton, and 450 yuan/ton respectively [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time, a 3.4% increase from last year. Production in November may decline by 9% month - on - month to 1.86 million tons, and then by 11% in December to 1.66 million tons. The export volume from November 1 - 10 is expected to be 190,533 tons, a 49.53% decrease from the same period last month [2][3]. - **Soybeans in the US**: Analysts expect that as of the week ending November 6, US soybean export sales will increase by 4.5 - 16 million tons, soybean meal export sales will increase by 0.5 - 4 million tons, and soybean oil export sales will increase by 0 - 0.25 million tons [3]. - **Soybeans in Brazil**: The 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to be 178.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous forecast [4]. - **Soybeans in Argentina**: As of the week ending November 5, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans reached 38.8346 million tons, and the cumulative sales of 2025/26 soybeans reached 4.1747 million tons [5]. - **Rapeseed in Ukraine**: The 2026/27 rapeseed production in Ukraine is expected to be 3.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 3.2 - 3.6 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [5]. - **Rapeseed in Australia**: The 2025/26 rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons, remaining the same as the previous forecast [6]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook; the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures' Daily Report on Oils and Fats [1][2] - Report Date: November 12, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 8288, up 50. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8548, 8598, and 8458 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 310, 260, and 170 respectively, with no change in the basis [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 8744, down 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8694, 8764, and 8854 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -50, 20, and 110 respectively, with no change in the basis [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 9840, up 65. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10190, 10340, and 10340 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 350, 500, and 500 respectively, with no change in the basis [2]. Month - to - Month Spreads - **Soybean Oil**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 224, up 12 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was -90, down 6 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 450, up 24 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was -456, up 76; the OI - Y spread was 1552, up 15; the OI - P spread was 1096, up 91; the oil - meal ratio was 2.71, up 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - The 24 - degree palm oil (from Malaysia & Indonesia) had a negative profit of -277, with a CNF price of 1057 in December. The Rotterdam rapeseed oil had a negative profit of -913, with a FOB price of 1080 in December [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventories (Week 45, 2025) - **Soybean Oil**: 115.7 tons this week, down from 121.6 tons last week and up from 107.8 tons last year [2]. - **Palm Oil**: 59.7 tons this week, up from 59.3 tons last week and up from 53.1 tons last year [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: 45.5 tons this week, down from 51.4 tons last week and up from 41.3 tons last year [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - As of the week ending November 5, Argentine farmers sold 28.67 tons of 24/25 - year soybeans, with 22.97 tons purchased by local oil mills and 5.7 tons by the export industry. They also sold 3.11 tons of 25/26 - year soybeans, with 2.62 tons purchased by local oil mills and 0.49 tons by the export industry. The total sales of all - year soybeans were 32.2 tons, and the cumulative sales reached 8398.43 tons. The cumulative export sales registration of 24/25 - year soybeans was 1226.4 tons, and that of 25/26 - year soybeans was 186.7 tons [4]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower. As of November 7, the national commercial inventory was 59.73 tons, up 0.45 tons from last week (0.76% increase). The import profit was around -200, and the basis was stable. It may have a limited upward movement due to lack of drivers and suggests short - term long positions at low prices or continued observation [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 180.57 tons, and the operating rate was 49.67%. As of November 7, the commercial inventory was 115.72 tons, down 5.86 tons from last week (4.82% decrease). The inventory may decline slightly, but supply is still sufficient. It is expected to fluctuate, and suggests waiting for a pull - back to enter long positions [5][6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Futures prices fluctuated and closed slightly higher. Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of November 7, the coastal inventory was 45.5 tons, down 5.9 tons from last week. The import profit was around -1100, and the basis was strong. It is recommended to go long on OI03 or 05 contracts on pull - backs [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral**: After a sharp decline, oils and fats have stabilized and rebounded technically. Palm oil may have limited upward movement, suggesting short - term long positions at low prices or continued observation [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Observation [8]. - **Options**: Observation [8]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts on the basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, Y 1 - 5 month - to - month spread, P 1 - 5 month - to - month spread, OI 1 - 5 month - to - month spread, Y - P 01 spread, and OI - Y 01 spread [10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly with favorable weather in the producing areas, and Argentina has also started sowing, with over 4% progress. The USDA is expected to release a monthly supply and demand report this week, which will revise the September US soybean yield data and have a significant impact on the market [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,770 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan or +0.92% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,238 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,775 yuan/ton, a change of +188 yuan or +1.96% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,740 yuan/ton, a change of +140 yuan or +1.63%, and the spot basis was P01 - 30 yuan, a change of +60 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,430 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan/ton or +0.48%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 192 yuan, a change of +30 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,130 yuan/ton, a change of +190 yuan or +1.91%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 355 yuan, a change of +2 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Aggregation - Domestic soybean crushing: Last week, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills continued to decline significantly, falling short of market expectations and reaching a six - month low. The average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 52.94%, a decrease of 8.66% from the previous week's 61.60%. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 1.9862 million tons, a decrease of 324,900 tons from the previous week's 2.3111 million tons. Among them, the crushing volume of domestic soybeans was 53,200 tons, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans was 1.933 million tons. This week, the expected soybean processing volume is expected to rise again to 2.3302 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.11% [2] - Imported grain and oil prices: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 501 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (December shipment) was 496 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 495 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: 238 cents/bushel for the Gulf of Mexico (December shipment), a decrease of 5 cents/bushel; 225 cents/bushel for the US West Coast (December shipment), a decrease of 20 cents/bushel; 220 cents/bushel for Brazilian ports (December shipment), an increase of 3 cents/bushel. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 528 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 536 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,144 US dollars/ton, an increase of 17 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,138 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotes for imported rapeseed oil: 1,085 US dollars/ton for Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment), unchanged; 1,065 US dollars/ton for Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment), unchanged. The shipping freight from Southeast Asian palm oil (December shipment) to central China was 27 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the shipping freight from Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) to central China was 110 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the shipping freight from Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) to central China was 65 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - International production and export forecasts: As of November 10, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 12.25 million kiloliters, made from palm - oil - based fatty acid methyl esters (FAME). The Indonesian government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters of FAME for biodiesel consumption in 2025. From November 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.14% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4%, and the output decreased by 2.16%. It is predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 4.26 million tons, higher than the previous week's 3.77 million tons; the expected export of soybean meal is 2.47 million tons, higher than the previous week's 2.23 million tons; the expected export of corn is 6.04 million tons, higher than the previous week's 5.57 million tons [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - Palm oil is expected to stabilize in the short - term, but the rebound height is limited [1] - With the stabilization of US soybeans, soybean oil is likely to fluctuate with an upward bias [1] 3) Summary by Directory a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,690 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,708 yuan/ton with a 0.21% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,228 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,232 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase. Rapeseed oil's daily - session closing price was 9,587 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,642 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. Malaysian palm oil's daily - session closing price was 4,111 ringgit/ton with a 0.02% increase, and night - session closing price was 4,124 ringgit/ton with a 0.29% increase. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 50.53 cents/pound with a 1.71% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 530,809 lots, an increase of 29,032 lots compared to the previous day, and open interest was 424,116 lots, an increase of 8,067 lots. Soybean oil's trading volume was 251,903 lots, a decrease of 62,806 lots, and open interest was 462,461 lots, a decrease of 9,082 lots. Rapeseed oil's trading volume was 158,000 lots, a decrease of 6,344 lots, and open interest was 208,976 lots, a decrease of 1,514 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,560 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,930 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 dollars/ton with no change [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 130 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 322 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 343 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 897 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 462 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was - 102 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil was 230 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 413 yuan/ton [1] b. Macro and Industry News - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October increased by 4.4% to 2.46 million tons compared to the previous month. The production of crude palm oil in October increased by 11.02% to 2.04 million tons, and the export volume increased by 18.58% to 1.69 million tons [2] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 448,328 tons, a 9.5% decrease compared to the same period last month [3] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 were 459,320 tons, a 12.28% decrease compared to the same period last month [5] - Ind - Ra predicted that India's soybean oil imports in 2025 might jump by about 40% to 4.7 - 4.9 million tons. India's total edible oil imports were expected to slightly decrease to 15.5 million tons, and the import dependence would remain at about 55%. Palm oil imports in 2025 were expected to drop to about 8 million tons, lower than last year's 9 million tons [5] - Analysts' surveys showed that as of Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate was 96% and the corn harvest rate was 92%. Farmers were harvesting the highest - yielding corn in history, and soybeans were also expected to have a good harvest [5] - CONAB reported that as of November 8, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week, 66.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57.0% [6] - AgRural reported that as of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean sowing rate for the 2025/26 season had reached 61% [7] c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1, indicating a neutral trend strength [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report on Agricultural Products dated November 9, 2025, covering various agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Palm oil may temporarily show a situation of all negative factors being priced in after the release of next week's MPOB report, and the upward movement of palm oil prices depends on successful production cuts in the fourth quarter. Soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation but lacks an independent upward driver. Soybean meal and soybeans are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the USDA report and paying attention to trade sentiment. Corn futures are expected to be strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the listing of new grains. Sugar should focus on policy changes. Cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Live pig contradictions are accumulating, waiting for spot market confirmation [2][5][8][17][21][29][54][84][103] Group 4: Summary by Product Palm Oil - **Last Week's View and Logic**: The market was worried about high production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter, and palm oil 01 contract fell 1.59% last week. It may stabilize in the short - term, with support at 8400 - 8600, and there may be a second dip by the end of the year [4] - **This Week's View and Logic**: Malaysia's production may be above last year's level in the fourth quarter, and the inventory will slowly decline to around 2.3 million tons by the end of the year. Indonesia has large export pressure in November. International palm oil prices are suppressed, and there is no strong upward driver on the origin side. It may temporarily show a situation of all negative factors being priced in after the release of next week's MPOB report, and the upward movement depends on successful production cuts in the fourth quarter [5] Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View and Logic**: With good production conditions in Brazil, soybean oil followed the oil and fat sector to fluctuate weakly, but strong export demand and de - stocking made it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties. Soybean oil 01 contract rose 0.39% last week [4] - **This Week's View and Logic**: The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector has declined rapidly, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure by the end of the year. In China, soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation but lacks an independent upward driver [8] Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Last Week's Situation**: US soybean futures prices fluctuated, and domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices were strongly oscillating due to trade concerns. International soybean market fundamentals included the suspension of the US export sales report, an increase in Brazilian soybean import costs, and a slowdown in Brazilian soybean planting progress [17] - **Next Week's Outlook**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybeans will oscillate. Pay attention to trade sentiment and wait for the 11 - month USDA supply - demand report [21] Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices fell last week. In the futures market, prices rose, driven by the increase in the northern port price and low inventory [29][30] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices rose, corn starch inventory increased, and attention should be paid to the listing of new grains. The short - term futures market is expected to be strong [31][32][33][34] Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the US dollar index rose, WTI crude oil and New York raw sugar prices fell. Domestically, the spot price of Guangxi sugar increased, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased [54][55] - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Domestically, it shows a weak reality, and attention should be paid to import policy changes [56] Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. New cotton costs are basically confirmed, and the market focus returns to supply - demand. There is no new upward driver currently, and it is expected to oscillate [84] Live Pigs - **This Week's Market Review**: In the spot market, pig prices weakly oscillated. In the futures market, prices oscillated and adjusted [103][104] - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to run weakly, and futures prices may face inventory pressure before the Spring Festival. The support level of the LH2601 contract is 11,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12,300 yuan/ton [105][106]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, fats and oils are expected to fluctuate widely before the palm oil production in the producing areas decreases and the US biodiesel policy is postponed for release [3] - The report suggests that for single - sided trading, the support level for palm oil 01 is 8400 - 8500, and for soybean oil 01 is 8000 - 8100. For options, the put option buyers of palm oil should take profit and exit. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: The rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean sowing. The import tariff of US soybeans is 13%, still higher than the 3% tariff of South American soybeans [3] - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 31, 2025 increased by 12.31% month - on - month. ITS and Amspec data indicate that the expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 31 increased by 5.19% and 4.31% respectively compared with the same period last month. The large increase in Malaysian palm oil production makes the probability of inventory accumulation in October relatively high. Attention should be paid to the October MPOB report [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: With the import of Australian and Russian rapeseed into China later, the domestic supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to China's import of Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other regions, as well as the progress of Indonesia's B50 and US biodiesel policies [3] Strategy View and Outlook - **Single - sided trading**: Suggest that the support level for palm oil 01 is 8400 - 8500, and for soybean oil 01 is 8000 - 8100. For options, the put option buyers of palm oil should take profit and exit [5] - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to wait and see [5] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices. Overall, fats and oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5] Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, fats and oils fluctuated widely. The soybean - palm oil spread, rapeseed - palm oil spread, and rapeseed - soybean oil spread all fluctuated widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][17] Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: According to the September MPOB report, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in September increased significantly to 2.361 million tons, much higher than expected. The production decreased slightly, but the decline was less than market expectations. The export increased month - on - month to 1.4276 million tons, in line with market expectations. The apparent consumption was 333,400 tons, a significant decrease compared with the previous month. This report is bearish [30] - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: Data on import volume, crushing volume, and inventory are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [31] - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: Data on import volume, crushing volume, and inventory are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [41] - **Domestic palm oil**: Data on import volume are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [51] Demand Side - Data on the trading volume of fats and oils are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [54] Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons (2.76%) from the previous week and an increase of 83,300 tons (7.36%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons (2.36%) from the previous week and an increase of 87,400 tons (17.29%) compared with 505,400 tons last year [63] - As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in coastal areas was 0 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 38,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week [66] Disk Import Profit - As of November 7, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the December shipment was - 215 yuan/ton [70]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The demand for palm oil in India is weak, and the price of the three major oils is oscillating. The decline in India's palm oil imports and the increase in Malaysia's palm oil production put pressure on the overall palm oil market [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan or 0.30% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,138 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.37% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,407 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan or 0.38% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.24%, and the spot basis was P01 + -70 yuan, an increase of 46 yuan [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first-grade soybean oil was 8,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 172 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil was 9,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.31%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 353 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market News India's Palm Oil Imports - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five-year low of 750,000 tons, down from 980,000 tons in September, due to increased domestic inventory, weak food industry demand, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds [2] Malaysia's Palm Oil Production - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31 is estimated to have increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, the highest level in eight years [2] EU's Climate Policy - The EU Council reached an agreement on amending the European Climate Law, maintaining the target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels [2] India's Rapeseed Planting - India's rapeseed planting area is expected to reach a new high this year due to strong Chinese demand and favorable soil moisture, with an expected increase of 7 - 8% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of rapeseed oil fluctuates due to the ongoing China - Canada trade friction, and the future trend depends on the changes in China - Canada tariff policies [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8664.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 100 yuan and a decline of - 1.14% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8110.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 18.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.22% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9470.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 48.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.51% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 70.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.81%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 114.00, with a change of + 30.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8260.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 30.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 0.36%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 150.00, with a change of - 12.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9840.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 50.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 370.00, with a change of + 2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary India's Edible Oil Imports - India's total edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 16 million tons [2] - India's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 16% year - on - year to 7.56 million tons, the lowest level in five years [2] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year increased by 61.6% year - on - year to a record 5.56 million tons [2] Brazil's Crop Planting - As of October 30, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 47% of the expected sown area, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular rainfall [2] - In the Brazilian Central - South region, the planting rate of the first - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 60%, basically the same as 59% in the same period last year [2] US Government Shutdown - Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips pointed out that the current US government shutdown may have an unprecedented economic impact, with a longer duration and a wider scope of affected government departments [2] - If the US government shutdown lasts for six weeks, it may reduce the US economic growth in the fourth quarter by 1.15 percentage points, and a rebound is expected by early 2026 [2]