Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is recommended to wait and see, but in the medium - term, the idea of buying on dips is maintained. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - **Soybean Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 8234, up 40. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8454, 8534, and 8394 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300 (unchanged), 220 (unchanged), and 160 (down 10) [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 9100, down 22. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9000, 9050, and 9200 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 100 (unchanged), - 50 (unchanged), and 100 (unchanged) [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 9748, down 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10118, 10128. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong were 370 (unchanged) and 380 (down 20) [2]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 166, down 12; for palm oil, it was 20, up 2; for rapeseed oil, it was 383, down 1 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 866 (down 53), OI - Y was 1514, and OI - P was 648 (up 9). The oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a disk profit of - 245, with a CNF price of 1096 in November. The disk profit of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 885, with an FOB price of 1075 in November [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories (2025 Week 42, in 10,000 tons)**: - Soybean oil inventory was 54.8 this week, compared with 122.4 last week and 126.5 last year; palm oil inventory was 57.6 this week, compared with 49.0 last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 54.9 this week, compared with 57.1 last week and 40.3 last year [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit increased by 1.63% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.78% month - on - month [4]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 60.71 tons, up 3.14 tons (5.45%) week - on - week. The import profit was about - 250. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, then consider lightly buying the 05 - contract after a pullback [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 236.74 tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 125.03 tons, up 2.63 tons (2.15%) week - on - week. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, then consider lightly buying after a pullback [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 1.1 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. As of October 17, 2025, the coastal inventory was 54.9 tons, down 2.2 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price increased to around 1100 dollars, and the import profit was about - 900. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, wait and see; medium - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those for spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral strategy for the oil and fat industry [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oil and fat futures and spot prices showed a downward trend, with palm oil leading the decline. The market lacks obvious driving forces, and each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics. Palm oil may face inventory build - up pressure, but will maintain high - level fluctuations; soybean oil has sufficient supply but export relieves pressure; and rapeseed oil supply is expected to tighten [1][6][7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of palm oil 2601 contract was 9,122 yuan/ton, down 186 yuan or 2.0% from the previous week; soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,194 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan or 0.75%; rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,761 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 1.01%. - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,050 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 1.52%; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 1.18%; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,100 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.69% [1] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased. Domestically, 4 new purchase ships and 1 cancelled ship were added from October 17 - 23, all with November shipment dates. - Demand: Terminal replenished goods intensively this week, with the national key oil mills' palm oil trading volume increasing by 84.18% compared to last week. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 tons, up 5.13% from last week and 11.59% from last year [2] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 13.17%. From January - September, the cumulative import was 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 43rd week was 2.3674 million tons, and the expected crushing volume in the 44th week was 2.3392 million tons. - Demand: The average daily trading volume of domestic key oil mills' bulk soybean oil decreased by 28.98% compared to last week. - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' soybean oil commercial inventory was 122.4 tons, down 3.25% from last week but up 8.32% from last year [3] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume was 12,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The rapeseed inventory was low, and only a few enterprises were operating. The import of rapeseed is expected to be limited from October - December, and the production of rapeseed oil is expected to shrink sharply. - Demand: As of October 17, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed oil pick - up volume was 12,900 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from the previous period, and it is expected to decline slightly next week. - Inventory: As of this week, the national imported rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week; the coastal oil mills' rapeseed oil inventory was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week [4][5] Market Analysis - This week, the three major oil and fat futures showed a weak and volatile trend. Palm oil was the weakest due to over - expected production growth, slow export growth, and the possible delay of Indonesia's B50 policy; rapeseed oil had no obvious driving force in the short - term; soybean oil was relatively firm due to its low price and export orders. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil slightly recovered [6] Future Outlook - Soybean oil: The U.S. soybean harvest rate is 73%, but the sales progress is slow. Brazil's soybean planting rate is lower than the five - year average, but the expected output is high. China's soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase. Exports relieve some supply pressure, and the future depends on Sino - U.S. negotiations. - Palm oil: Indonesia's B50 policy may be delayed. Malaysia's palm oil production increased significantly in October, and India's future import speed may slow down. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the inventory is expected to increase. However, due to the approaching production - reduction season and the promotion of Indonesia's biodiesel, palm oil will maintain high - level fluctuations. - Rapeseed oil: Canada's rapeseed harvest is almost over, but its exports are sluggish. China's import of rapeseed is expected to be limited from October - December. Rapeseed oil will fluctuate between tight supply of raw materials and slow inventory reduction [7][8][9][10]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] Group 2: Researcher Information - Researcher Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Researcher Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Researcher Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Researcher Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Researcher Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: East China's third - grade rapeseed oil prices from October - November are OI2601 + 330, December - January are OI2601 + 270; first - grade rapeseed oil from October - November are OI2601 + 430, December - January are OI2601 + 370. East China's first - grade soybean oil basis prices: for first - grade soybean oil, October is Y2501 + 210, October - November is Y2501 + 220, December - January is Y2601 + 280, February - May is Y2501 + 150, March - May is Y2501 + 130, May - July is Y2501 + 10; for third - grade soybean oil, it's 01 + 170; for raw soybean oil, it's 01 + 50. Dongguan traders' palm oil quotes are stable, with 24 - degree palm oil at 01 - 70 [7] - Industry comments: China's three major oils continued to adjust. In the palm oil market, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month. Strong production and expected slowdown in Indian palm oil demand after Diwali dragged down the market. The domestic spot market was weak, with sufficient supply and little change in basis quotes. In the short term, there is a lack of drivers, and low crude oil prices also put pressure on the oil sector. Futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend with further downward potential. Attention should be paid to the lower technical support levels [7] Group 4: Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month, with Peninsular Malaysia up 4.54%, Sabah up 21.99%, Sarawak up 16.69%, and East Malaysia up 20.45% [8] - UOB KayHian estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10% - 14% month - on - month, with Sabah up 20% - 24%, Sarawak up 18% - 22%, and Peninsular Malaysia up 3% - 7% [8] - Shipping surveyor SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were 793,571 tons, a 41.8% increase from 559,829 tons in the same period of September. Exports to China were 84,400 tons, higher than the 46,300 tons in the previous month [8] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil; basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads; and exchange rates of US dollar to RMB and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][12][15][23][28][29]

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China market, the basis price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from October to November was OI2601+330, and from December to January was OI2601+270. The basis price of Grade 1 rapeseed oil from October to November was OI2601+430, and from December to January was OI2601+370. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in October was Y2501+210, from October to November was Y2501+220, from December to January was Y2601+280, from February to May was Y2501+150, from March to May was Y2501+130, and from May to July was Y2501+10. The basis price of Grade 3 soybean oil was 01+170, and the basis price of crude soybean oil was 01+50. The quotation of palm oil by Dongguan traders remained stable, with the price of 24-degree palm oil at 01-70. [7] - Market Analysis: The Malaysian market was closed due to holidays. The three major domestic oils continued to adjust, mainly dragged down by the recent decline in the international crude oil market. The upcoming restart of Sino-US trade negotiations and the visit of the Canadian Foreign Minister to China affected market sentiment in the short term. The strong performance of CBOT soybeans boosted the domestic soybean oil market. The rapeseed oil market gave back its previous gains, and the spread between January and May contracts weakened again, but the spot basis continued to rise. The news about palm oil was mixed, and Indonesia's B50 policy was positive for the distant contracts. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the medium- and long-term strategy is to buy on dips and roll over long positions. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Domestic Palm Oil Inventory: As of the end of the 42nd week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 549,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week. The contract volume was 40,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of 24-degree and below palm oil was 530,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of high-grade palm oil was 19,000 tons, the same as the previous week. [8] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: According to data from the Southern Peninsular Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from October 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.86% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area increasing by 5.76% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.21% month-on-month. [8] - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: According to data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 to 15 was 606,292 tons, an increase of 49.8% compared with the export volume of 404,688 tons from September 1 to 15. The export volume to China was 55,300 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the same period last month. [8] - Indian Palm Oil Imports: The Indian Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) said that India's palm oil imports in September dropped to the lowest level since May as refineries switched to cheaper soybean oil, and the import volume of soybean oil reached a three-year high. India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest level since May. [8][9] Group 4: Data Overview - Crop Planting Progress: Brazilian farmers have planted soybeans on 23.27% of the expected area in 2025, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year. [14] - US Soybean Crushing: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released monthly crushing data on Wednesday, showing that the soybean crushing volume in September increased significantly, reaching the fourth highest monthly level on record and the highest level in the same period in history. This was because the US soybean processing industry had recovered from the seasonal equipment maintenance shutdown before the autumn soybean harvest, and the production pace had accelerated significantly. [14]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2025-10-21 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - Tel: 0575-85226759 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 3: Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are oscillating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 4: Market Analysis of Different Oils and Fats Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it will enter the production cut season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8502, with a basis of 204, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. - **Main Position**: The short position of the main contract of soybean oil has decreased. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 will oscillate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but subsequently it will enter the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9334, with a basis of 16, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main contract of palm oil has decreased. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 will oscillate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10228, with a basis of 310, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main contract of rapeseed oil has decreased. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Group 5: Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多**: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Group 6: Supply and Demand Data Supply - Imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats are presented in the form of charts, showing the inventory changes from 2015 to 2025 [6][7][9][17][19][21][23] Demand - The apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal is presented in the form of charts, showing the consumption changes from 2015 to 2025 [13][15]

Report Information - Report Date: October 20, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号: F0283029 [1] - Investment Advisory Number: Z0010442 [1] - TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global oil and fat fundamentals are generally loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Domestic fundamentals are also loose, with stable oil and fat supplies. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - reduction season, reducing the supply pressure of palm oil [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8452, with a basis of 196, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, export data is increasing, and it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9300, with a basis of - 8, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above, and it will enter the production - increase season, increasing palm oil supply [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10146, with a basis of 285, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空**: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The analysis centers around the generally loose global oil and fat fundamentals [5] Supply - Related Information - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Mentioned but no specific data analysis provided [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: August 22 inventory was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% year - on - year [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: August 22 port inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and down 34.1% year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: August 22 commercial inventory was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% year - on - year [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [23][24] - **Oil Mill Soybean Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [7][8] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [11][12] Demand - Related Information - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [15][16]

Report Title - "Palm Oil: Slow De-stocking in Origin Regions, Focus on Downside Support for Palm Oil" and "Soybean Oil: Favorable Production Situation in South America, Focus on China-US Economic and Trade Relations" [1][2] Report Core View - The report focuses on the fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including price, trading volume, position, spot price, basis, and spread data, as well as macro and industry news [3][4] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - Palm oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day session was 9,308 yuan/ton, down 0.04%, and 9,354 yuan/ton at night, up 0.49%. The trading volume was 484,295 lots, an increase of 100,467 lots, and the position was 337,826 lots, a decrease of 10,220 lots [3] - Soybean oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day session was 8,256 yuan/ton, unchanged, and 8,298 yuan/ton at night, up 0.51%. The trading volume was 295,513 lots, an increase of 88,765 lots, and the position was 499,960 lots, an increase of 1,780 lots [3] - Rapeseed oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day session was 9,861 yuan/ton, down 0.74%, and 9,874 yuan/ton at night, up 0.13%. The trading volume was 226,809 lots, an increase of 67,299 lots, and the position was 281,371 lots, a decrease of 6,590 lots [3] Spot Data - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 9,250 yuan/ton, with no price change [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,660 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 10,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [3] Basis Data - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis: - 58 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis: 404 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis: 259 yuan/ton [3] Spread Data - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 553 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 623 yuan/ton) [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 1,052 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was - 1,056 yuan/ton) [3] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: 44 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 54 yuan/ton) [3] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: 214 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 194 yuan/ton) [3] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: 386 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 441 yuan/ton) [3] Macro and Industry News - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15, 2025, were 606,292 tons, a 49.8% increase from 404,688 tons in the same period last month [4] - As of the week of October 14, 2025, about 39% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [5] - Brazilian farmers had planted soybeans on 23.27% of the expected area in 2025, compared with 9.33% in the same period last year, and higher than the 2023 record of 17.35% and the past 5 - year average of 16.20% [6] - As of October 17, 2025, the soybean - planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season had reached 43.57% of the estimated total area, up from 21.22% the previous week and 25.08% in the same period last year [6] - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean - planting area was expected to be 18 million hectares, unchanged from the previous month's estimate and an 8.4% increase from 16.6 million hectares in the previous year. The 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 51.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous month's estimate and a 6% increase from 48.2 million tons in the 2023/24 season. The first planting intention estimate for the 2025/26 season showed an expected area of 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [6] - As of October 8, 2025, Argentine farmers had sold 37.54 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 1.28 million tons more than a week ago, compared with 29.85 million tons in the same period last year. They had pre - sold 3.11 million tons of 2025/26 soybeans, 190,000 tons more than a week ago, compared with 1.11 million tons in the same period last year [7] - As of the week of October 12, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports increased 97.8% to 159,200 tons from the previous week. From August 1 to October 12, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 955,300 tons, a 59.1% decrease from the same period last year. As of October 12, 2025, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.4668 million tons [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [3] Report's Core View - Strong export data of Malaysian palm oil provides short - term support to the oil market despite high inventory and Sino - US trade tensions [2] Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of palm oil 2601 contract was 9322.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 8 yuan (- 0.09%); soybean oil 2601 contract was 8252.00 yuan/ton, + 12.00 yuan (+ 0.15%); rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9932.00 yuan/ton, - 27.00 yuan (- 0.27%) [1] Spot - In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9210.00 yuan/ton, - 60.00 yuan (- 0.65%), with a spot basis of P01 + - 112.00, - 52.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8430.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.12%), with a spot basis of Y01 + 178.00, - 22.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10240.00 yuan/ton, - 20.00 yuan (- 0.19%), with a spot basis of OI01 + 308.00, + 7.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information Brazil's Soybean - IBGE's October monthly report shows that Brazil's expected soybean planting area this year is 47.7 million hectares, up 0.1% from last month's forecast and 3.6% from last year; expected output is 165.866 million tons, down 0.0% from last month's forecast and up 14.4% from last year; expected yield is 3478 kg/hectare, down 0.1% from last month's forecast and up 10.4% from last year [2] Malaysia's Palm Oil - AmSpec data shows Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 781,006 tons, up 12.3% from the same period last month; ITS data shows exports were 862,724 tons, up 16.2% from the same period last month [2]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8252 | 12 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8462 | | | | 8552 | 8432 | | 300 | -10 | 210 | -10 | 180 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9322 | (8) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9242 | | | | 9322 | 9422 | | -80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 ...

2025 年 10 月 15 日 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑 豆油：区间运行，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,330 | -0.36% | 9,320 | -0.11% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,240 | -0.34% | 8,244 | 0.05% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,959 | -0.63% | 9,918 | -0.41% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,460 | -0.80% | 4,467 | 0.13% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.57 | -0.06% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 526,687 | 25422 | 350,778 | 1,573 | | | ...