行 华福证券 家用电器 2025 年 12 月 28 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 家用电器 多地部署 2026 年国补，关注政策落地进展—— 25W52 周观点 投资要点： 多地部署 2026 年国补，关注政策落地进展 2025 年国补政策效果显著，最后一轮补贴加速收尾。2025 年国家 通过超长期特别国债累计安排 3000 亿元专项资金，分四批次精准投放 消费品以旧换新市场。根据京九晚报，截至 12 月 24 日，补贴全国平 均消耗率超 90%，热门品类额度消耗速度持续加快。 多品类全面发力，带动消费规模超 2.5 万亿元。据商务部数据， 2025 年 1 月-11 月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超 2.5 万亿元， 惠及超 3.6 亿人次，政策对消费的拉动作用充分释放。 中央统筹部署，优化政策实施，锚定内需与绿色发展。2025 年 12 月召开的中央经济工作会议明确要求，2026 年要优化大规模设备更新 和消费品以旧换新政策实施，核心目标包括扩大内需、促进消费升级 和绿色发展，清理消费领域不合理限制措施、释放服务消费潜力。 多地陆续部署 2026 年国补政策。截至 2025 年 12 月 ...

Group 1 - The "Two New" policy has effectively expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [1] - The trade-in policy for consumer goods has significantly boosted sales in home appliances and communication products, leading to accelerated growth in consumer demand [1] - From January to November, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and communication equipment increased by 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2 - The large-scale equipment update policy is showing significant effects, with companies increasingly willing to invest in equipment upgrades and renovations [3] - Equipment investment has grown rapidly, contributing to an overall increase in investments and enhancing corporate competitiveness [3] - From January to November, investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 12.2% year-on-year, driving total investment growth by 1.8 percentage points [1]

发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人介绍，今年11月份，服务业平稳增长，现代服务业发展向好。 付凌晖介绍，11月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长4.2%。1—11月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长5.6%。1—10月份，规模以上服务 业企业营业收入同比增长7.6%。11月份，服务业商务活动指数为49.5%，服务业业务活动预期指数为55.9%。 付凌晖介绍，1—11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也快于上年全年。1—11月份，服务零售额同比增 长5.4%，增速比上月加快0.1个百分点，连续3个月回升，而且快于商品零售额增速，文体休闲服务类零售额保持两位数增长。1—11月份，实 物商品网上零售额同比增长5.7%，增速快于社会消费品零售总额1.7个百分点，占社会消费零售总额的比重达到25.9%。数字消费、绿色消费、 健康消费日益成为消费新热点，对消费的引领和支撑作用日益显现。 央视网消息：12月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，国家统计局相关负责人介绍，今年11月份，工业生产稳定增长，装备制造业 和高技术制造业增长较快。 国家统计局：前11个月社会消费品零售总额同比增长4% 国家统计局新闻发 ...

每经AI快讯，据中国网直播，12月15日，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，今年以来，提振消费专 项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费结构升级、消费动能焕 新，带动了消费潜能释放。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也 快于上年全年。近期社会消费品零售总额增速有所回落，主要是因为去年同期基数较高。从累计增速来 看，今年的社会消费品零售总额增长好于去年。从11月份情况来看，市场销售继续扩大，服务消费增长 较快，新型消费继续壮大。 每经AI快讯，据中国网直播，12月15日，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，今年以来，提振消费专 项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费结构升级、消费动能焕 新，带动了消费潜能释放。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也 快于上年全年。近期社会消费品零售总额增速有所回落，主要是因为去年同期基数较高。从累计增速来 看，今年的社会消费品零售总额增长好于去年。从11月份情况来看，市场销售继续扩大，服务消费增长 较快，新型消费继续壮大。 ...

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在发布会上表示，今年以来，提振消费专项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换 新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费结构升级、消费动能焕新，带动了消费潜能释放。1-11月 份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也快于上年全年。近期社会消费品零 售总额增速有所回落，主要是因为去年同期基数较高。从累计增速来看，今年的社会消费品零售总额增 长好于去年。从11月份情况来看，市场销售继续扩大，服务消费增长较快，新型消费继续壮大。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Insights - The light industry in China has shown resilience with a revenue of 19 trillion yuan and a profit of 1.14 trillion yuan for the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9% and 1.6% respectively [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The added value of large-scale light industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year from January to October [1] - The automotive, battery, and plastic furniture manufacturing sectors experienced double-digit growth in added value, while the home appliance manufacturing sector grew by 5.5%, with washing machine and air conditioner production increasing by 6.4% and 3% respectively [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand - Retail sales of 11 categories of light industry products reached 710.19 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - The consumption potential of related products has been continuously released due to the expansion of the consumption upgrade policy, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment growing by 20.1% [1] - High-efficiency home appliances have maintained rapid growth within the scope of the consumption upgrade policy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the stable economic performance of China's light industry, with significant revenue and profit growth supported by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [1] Group 2 - From January to October, revenue of large-scale light industry enterprises reached 19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while profits amounted to 1.14 trillion yuan, growing by 1.6% [1] - The added value of large-scale light industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year during the same period, driven by the "old-for-new" consumption policy, particularly in the manufacturing sectors of automobiles, batteries, and plastic furniture, which saw double-digit growth [1] - Retail sales of 11 categories of light industry goods reached 710.19 billion yuan from January to October, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment sales increasing by 20.1% [1] - High-efficiency home appliances continued to experience rapid growth within the "old-for-new" consumption policy framework, indicating a strong consumer demand [1]

Core Insights - The light industry in China has shown resilience with a revenue of 19 trillion yuan and a profit of 1.14 trillion yuan for the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.9% and 1.6% respectively [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The added value of large-scale light industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year from January to October [1] - The automotive, battery, and plastic furniture manufacturing sectors experienced double-digit growth due to the consumption upgrade policy [1] - The home appliance manufacturing sector's added value grew by 5.5%, with washing machine and air conditioner production increasing by 6.4% and 3% respectively [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand - Retail sales of 11 categories of light industry products reached 710.19 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - The consumption upgrade policy has been expanded, releasing potential in related product consumption [1] - Retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment grew by 20.1%, maintaining double-digit growth since September of the previous year [1]

Group 1 - The "old-for-new" policy has shown positive and significant effects, with 330 million people applying for subsidies and over 10 million applications for automobile subsidies. Retail sales related to these products have maintained double-digit growth in the first three quarters [1] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds for the "old-for-new" subsidies, which have all been distributed [1] - The increase in service consumption is attributed to the rising living standards of residents, leading to a shift from goods consumption to a balance between goods and services [3] Group 2 - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy has prompted companies to expand production and invest in research and development to meet market demand, enhancing their competitiveness and profit levels [4] - Regulatory measures are being enhanced to prevent unfair competition, including the use of big data for comprehensive monitoring of businesses [2] - There is a suggestion for post-purchase tracking to ensure full-chain regulation of consumer purchases [2]

Group 1 - The "old-for-new" policy has shown significant positive effects, with 330 million people applying for subsidies and over 10 million applications for automobile subsidies [1] - In the first three quarters, retail sales of consumer goods related to the "old-for-new" policy, including home appliances and audio equipment, maintained double-digit growth [1] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds for the "old-for-new" subsidies, which have all been distributed [1] Group 2 - The government is enhancing regulatory measures to prevent unfair competition, including price manipulation and substandard products, using "Internet + big data" for comprehensive oversight [2] - There is a recommendation for post-purchase tracking to ensure full-chain regulation of consumer purchases [2] Group 3 - As residents' living standards improve, there is a shift in consumption patterns from primarily goods to a balance of goods and services, leading to rapid growth in service consumption [3] - The demand for services is increasing alongside the upgrading of physical goods, indicating a need for policies to adapt to diverse consumer demands [3] Group 4 - The "old-for-new" policy encourages companies to expand production and invest in research and development to meet changing market demands, enhancing competitiveness and profit levels [4]