金价续创新高，黄金股投资机会怎么看 20251009 摘要 美联储年内或有两次降息，2026 年或继续降息，历史数据表明降息初 期金价表现强势，实际利率下行构成支撑，为黄金价格上涨提供动力。 美国就业数据显现问题，促使美联储关注就业而非通胀，财政部发债需 求及特朗普政府对宽松货币政策的支持，均增加市场对持续降息的预期， 利好黄金。 尽管通胀有所抬头，但美联储更关注美国宏观经济和就业市场，预计年 底前仍有降息，为黄金提供交易窗口，即使 2026 年通胀反弹，金价大 幅下跌的可能性较低。 全球央行购金需求持续高企，从 2022 年的四五百吨增加到接近 1,000 吨，预计 2025 年仍将接近 1,000 吨，对金价形成支撑，同时降息周期 开启吸引 ETF 资金大幅进场。 美国政府停摆及国际政坛变动引发避险情绪，推动美元和金价齐涨，美 国国会停摆挑战美元信用，加剧市场不确定性，进一步推高黄金价格。 金价上涨显著影响相关股票业绩，2025 年黄金均价较 2024 年上涨约 40%-50%，企业成本增速难以赶上金价上涨速度，业绩或超预期，推 动股票估值提升。 黄金股估值已非问题，EPS 上调后估值大幅消化，龙头企业估 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver is currently undervalued, with expectations for a continued rally driven by strong industrial demand, supply constraints, and safe-haven buying amid economic uncertainty [1][3][21]. Market Data - COMEX silver futures are trading at approximately $49.74 per ounce, with a daily high near $49.96 and a low of about $47.85. Silver spot prices are close to $49.67 per ounce [2][23]. - In India, silver futures on the MCX market are trading around Rs 1,46,850 per kilogram, closely tracking global price movements [2][23]. Demand Drivers - Industrial demand is a significant factor, with silver being essential for solar panels, electric vehicles, and semiconductors [11][12][21]. - The demand from solar energy has increased as countries invest in clean energy, while the rise of electric vehicles has heightened the need for silver in batteries and electronics [12][21]. - The technology and semiconductor sectors are also contributing to growth, as silver's properties make it vital for modern electronics [12][13]. Supply Constraints - Global mining output is struggling to meet annual demand, leading to a structural supply deficit where consumption exceeds production [14][15]. - Low warehouse inventories and high deliveries to major exchanges are tightening supply, putting upward pressure on prices [15][21]. Investor Sentiment - Investor interest in silver has surged due to economic uncertainty and currency concerns, with many treating it as a safe-haven asset similar to gold [17][18]. - The tightening silver-to-gold ratio reflects silver's stronger performance relative to gold, enhancing investor enthusiasm [18][21]. Investment Options - Silver ETFs are popular for gaining exposure, with options like iShares Silver Trust (SLV), abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR), and Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) [6][19][20]. - These ETFs provide flexibility for different risk levels, allowing investors to participate in silver's price movements without holding the physical metal [19][20]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe the current rally is supported by industrial demand, investor interest, and supply shortages, with potential for silver prices to reach $100 or more per ounce [3][21][24]. - Small fluctuations in supply or demand could significantly impact prices, indicating a critical moment for investors [21][24].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market showed signs of acceleration with a strong closing the previous day, and the price surpassed the 4000 mark, reaching a high of 4050 [1][2] - The trend remains strong, but caution is advised for potential profit-taking after the holiday, with a need to confirm support levels before further bullish actions [2][4] - The hourly analysis indicates a strong upward movement, with the first sign of a pullback not sufficient to indicate a reversal, and support levels are identified at 4030 and 4000 [4] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market was weaker compared to gold, but it showed a recovery influenced by gold's performance, remaining within a defined trading channel [5] - Key resistance and support levels for silver are identified at 49.15 (upper), 48.2 (middle), and 47.65 (lower) [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market experienced a rebound after filling a gap from earlier in the week, with a critical resistance level identified at around 63 [7]

国际黄金，早上视频我们说黄金马上要突破4000美元了，这个目标我们喊了好几天了。截止目前，黄金已经突破4000美元大关，如期抵达4000美元！ 黄金冲上4000美元之后，到时候有没有风险？风险是有的，但是，整体上趋势上继续看涨黄金。可以用我们最简单的方法，屏幕法或者数K线的方法，不会 这两个方法的朋友继续参考我们置顶的视频，里面有详细的解读。 白银，距离历史新高50美元双顶位置一步之遥，继续看涨白银，后市必将突破50美元；作为前期历史双顶的50美元，突破前，一样小心空头反攻。 从当前盘面来看，黄金在国庆节期间是一路震荡上扬，虽然说中间有剧烈的洗盘，但是最终多头都占据优势，有的是当天回销当天拉起来，有的是当天回调 之后第二天拉起来，总之都是多头强势的碾压空头！ 白银牛市浩浩荡荡，即将突破50美元！ 上述个人观点，仅供参考 黄金突破4000美元后，需要关注哪些位置？第一关注4005~4010这个区域，然后就是4020区域，再往上4036区域。大家可以注意一个现象，每次新高之后， 10个美金或20个美金都会有不同程度的调整。调整个三四十美元，五六十美元都很正常的。对于操作上，继续逢低做多不追涨，同时提防调整风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns about the country's growing debt, which is seen as a new driver for gold prices to rise by the end of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices have recently surpassed $3,870, with Comex gold futures reaching above $3,900 [1]. - BMO Capital Markets has significantly raised its price forecasts for gold and silver, predicting an average gold price of around $3,900 per ounce in Q4 2025, an 8% increase from previous estimates [3]. - Analysts expect gold prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce next year and project an average price of $4,400 per ounce by 2026, a 26% increase from earlier forecasts [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Analysts note that geopolitical and financial system changes over the past 2-3 years have led to lasting shifts in gold demand [4]. - Concerns about U.S. debt levels are becoming more prominent, with analysts identifying these worries as a key driver of gold's price increase [4]. - The growing interest in gold as a hedge against long-term currency devaluation is evidenced by strong inflows into gold ETFs [4]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - BMO expects silver to outperform gold in the near term, forecasting an average price of $45 per ounce in Q4, a 41% increase from previous estimates [5]. - The silver price is projected to reach $50 per ounce by Q2 next year, with an average price of $49.50 per ounce in 2026, a 57% increase from earlier predictions [5]. - Strong industrial demand is expected to support silver prices, with analysts highlighting its potential for greater elasticity compared to gold due to its industrial applications [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market has shown strong bullish momentum, with a potential target of 4384 USD if the current trend continues, based on historical price levels [2] - Recent trading activity indicates a significant upward movement, with a target of 3826 USD being achievable in the near term, as the market remains above key support levels [1][2] - The daily and hourly charts suggest that gold is maintaining a strong position above the 5-day moving average, indicating continued bullish sentiment [2][4] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver has also experienced a strong upward trend, breaking through the 46 USD mark and aiming for higher resistance levels, with a target of 48 USD [1][5] - The market remains above the 10-day moving average, suggesting a sustained bullish outlook for silver [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is currently in a consolidation phase, with prices fluctuating between 61 and 66 USD, indicating a lack of a clear trend [7] - The focus remains on gold and silver trading opportunities, as the oil market does not present a strong directional bias at this time [7]

白银走势分析： 现货白银周二上涨至44.4后出现了调整，目前低点在44附近，白银看涨不追涨，等待回落做多，那么，经过这波的调 整，近期可能有做多的机会。白银下方的支撑在43.5附近，今天关注此点位做多的机会，上方阻力则在44.8/45区间， 如果做了高位多单的朋友也不要过分看上方空间，尽量在本周做高位的短线交易。沪银支撑在10200附近，同样是等待 回落修正后多。当然，还是要注意一点，在国庆节前沪银也有可能会走出较大调整空间，跌破10200后再看9900之下 对于今日行情而言，黄金继续保持看涨不追涨，回落做多，不猜顶原则即可。金价在周二出现极限上涨至3791后，午 夜走出了较大力度的调整，最低在3752，这40美金的下跌并没有改变暂时黄金的多头趋势，目前顶多说明黄金可能会 是一个高位震荡，所以，周三保持低多原则不变，看3800关口是否破位。技术面来看，目前k线收在布林上轨之下，有 可能会在周三，周四出现连续调整后收口，所以，目前看涨明显，但不要过分看涨，可能会在调整中出现中期的调整 力度，大家注意这有点即可。下方的强势支撑在3715，只要不破这一点，黄金难以出现强弱转换。 4小时图K线出现了高位三连阴的表现， ...

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has reached a basic framework consensus with the U.S. to address the TikTok issue, reduce investment barriers, and promote economic and trade cooperation [1] - A U.S. appeals court has denied President Trump's request to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time a president has attempted such an action since the Fed's establishment in 1913 [2] - The New York Fed's manufacturing index for September recorded -8.7, indicating a contraction in industry activity, which is significantly below expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming meeting, with market focus on future interest rate paths and economic expectations [2] - Gold prices have surged, reaching a historical high of $3,674 per ounce, driven by poor manufacturing data and increased rate cut expectations [4][6] - The domestic gold futures in China have also hit a record high, with the main contract peaking above 8,420 yuan per kilogram [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has shown significant volatility, driven by multiple factors including industrial demand and monetary policy expectations, with current prices reflecting a deeper integration of global silver markets [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the New York silver futures price is at $39.62 per ounce, a slight decrease of 0.21% from the previous day, with a daily trading range of $39.57 to $39.725 per ounce [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai silver main contract price reached 9,405 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.4% increase since the beginning of the month, achieving the second-highest record of the year [1]. - The Shanghai silver price experienced a "volatile ascent" in August, with a maximum monthly increase of 1.98%, particularly highlighted by a single-day increase of 183 yuan per kilogram on August 25 [3]. Demand Drivers - The explosive growth of China's solar energy industry has significantly supported silver demand, with a reported 93 gigawatts of new solar capacity added in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 300%, requiring approximately 20 tons of silver per gigawatt for conductive paste [4]. - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is identified as a core factor driving silver prices upward, with an 88% probability currently assigned to this outcome [3][4]. Investment Trends - The silver market is showing a divergence between strong ETF demand and weak physical sales, with global silver ETF holdings reaching 791 million ounces by mid-August, a 10% increase since the beginning of the year, and a 20 million ounce increase in just the past four weeks [4]. - In contrast, sales of physical silver coins have significantly declined, with U.S. Mint silver coin sales dropping 48% year-on-year in July [4]. Trading Platforms - Selecting a "regulated spot silver trading platform" is crucial for risk management in a volatile market, with Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange Company being highlighted for its compliance and regulatory backing [5]. - The platform offers transaction transparency, allowing investors to track trades in real-time, and implements a zero-commission policy with a $100 per lot spread discount, which is beneficial for new investors [5]. Investment Guidelines - New investors are advised to verify platform credentials and familiarize themselves with trading rules, such as the contract size for London silver being 5,000 ounces [6]. - Risk management strategies, including using stop-loss tools to limit individual trade risk to 5% of capital, are recommended, along with avoiding impulsive trading behaviors [6]. - The emphasis is placed on a long-term investment strategy rather than short-term speculation, encouraging a rational approach to price fluctuations [6].

Group 1 - The historical context of silver prices indicates that silver was once more valuable than gold in ancient Egypt, but trade expansion led to silver being overshadowed by gold [1] - Silver is often viewed as a substitute for gold, referred to as "poor man's gold," and typically follows gold price trends due to their interconnected relationship rather than fundamental factors [1] - The current gold-silver price ratio is around 90, which is higher than the 68-year average, suggesting that silver is relatively cheaper despite recent price increases [1] Group 2 - Silver has shown strong performance this year, with predictions from Citigroup indicating prices may exceed $40 per ounce due to tightening supply and increasing demand [3] - The industrial demand for silver is rising, driven by applications in solar panels, electric vehicles, and electronics, with solar energy accounting for 17% of total silver demand last year, a significant increase from 5.6% a decade ago [3] - Since 2016, global mine supply of silver has decreased by 7%, contributing to a long-term structural shortage in the silver market [3] Group 3 - HSBC's supply-demand model indicates a supply shortfall of 167 million ounces last year, potentially increasing to 206 million ounces this year, which is favorable for silver prices [4] - While industrial demand for silver remains strong, the sensitivity of consumer demand to price increases may lead to reduced demand for silver jewelry and silverware [4] - In the context of ongoing global economic and geopolitical tensions, silver's status as a "safe haven" asset is gaining importance, positioning it as a more affordable and potentially higher-growth alternative to gold [4]