Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value over the next two years [1] Group 1 - The plan emphasizes "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition" as its core focus, guiding the structural adjustment and high-quality development of the Chinese steel industry [1] - It proposes precise control of capacity and output, promotes graded and classified management of steel enterprises, prohibits new capacity additions, and encourages resource allocation towards advantageous enterprises [1] - The plan aims to achieve dynamic balance between supply and demand through output regulation, facilitating the survival of the fittest [1] Group 2 - Experts indicate that "equipment upgrading" and "low-carbon transformation" will be the two core competitive issues in the future [1] - The plan mandates that steel enterprises must accelerate the elimination of outdated equipment, particularly old blast furnaces and converters that restrict production [1] - By the end of 2025, the plan requires that over 80% of steel production capacity must complete ultra-low emission transformation [1]

Group 1 - Steel stocks experienced a broad increase, with Chongqing Steel rising by 2.92% to HKD 1.41, Maanshan Steel up by 1.61% to HKD 2.52, and China Hanking increasing by 1.1% to HKD 3.67 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" on September 22, setting an annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value over the next two years [1] - The plan emphasizes "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," guiding structural adjustments and high-quality development in China's steel industry [1] Group 2 - The work plan proposes precise control of capacity and output, prohibits new capacity additions, and encourages resource allocation towards leading enterprises to achieve dynamic balance between supply and demand [1] - Experts highlight that "equipment upgrading" and "low-carbon transformation" will be the two core competitive issues for the future, with a requirement for steel enterprises to accelerate the elimination of outdated equipment [1] - By the end of 2025, over 80% of steel production capacity is expected to complete ultra-low emission transformations [1] Group 3 - CICC anticipates that in the second half of 2025, production control is likely to be implemented against the backdrop of preventing internal competition, with an expected recovery in market sentiment and improvement in industry supply and demand [2] - The steel industry is currently at the left side of a major cycle bottom reversal, with the bottom of the cycle becoming increasingly clear, indicating a potential upward trend in the industry cycle [2] - The deteriorating raw material landscape is expected to enhance the certainty and elasticity of profit cycle recovery [2]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", setting an average annual growth target of around 4% for the steel industry's added value over the next two years [1] - The plan emphasizes "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition" as its core focus, providing a clear implementation path for structural adjustments and high-quality development in China's steel industry [1] Summary by Sections - **Production Control and Management** - The plan proposes precise control of production capacity and output, promotes graded and classified management of steel enterprises, prohibits the addition of new production capacity, and guides resource allocation towards competitive enterprises [1] - It aims to achieve dynamic balance between supply and demand through output regulation, facilitating the survival of the fittest [1] - **Core Competitive Issues** - Experts indicate that "equipment upgrading" and "low-carbon transformation" will be the two main competitive issues in the future [1] - Steel enterprises are required to accelerate the elimination of outdated equipment, particularly old blast furnaces and converters, which are considered restrictive production equipment [1] - **Environmental Standards** - The plan specifies that by the end of 2025, over 80% of steel production capacity must complete ultra-low emission transformations [1]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发明货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所袁达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或狗价，投资者撰此 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期始特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货节面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 回發落:1回 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 町自 | 张庆 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3220 | 20 | 104 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Both steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. For steel, although the terminal demand in August was under pressure, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious in mid - to late September, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies may also support the demand. For iron ore, despite the long - term pressure on demand due to the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support [1][2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Production, Sales, and Inventory Changes Lead to Differentiated Performance of Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - Last week, affected by fundamental production, sales, and inventory changes, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts showed differentiation. The futures price of the rebar main contract fluctuated weakly, down 0.51% for the week, while the futures prices of hot - rolled coil and iron ore main contracts fluctuated strongly, up 0.72% and 1.27% respectively for the week. The decline of rebar was due to weak consumption and inventory accumulation, while the rise of hot - rolled coil was due to increased consumption and inventory destocking. The rise of iron ore was supported by tight supply caused by a sharp drop in overseas ore shipments and increased demand from the resumption of production of steel mills in North China [4]. 2. The Pressure of Inventory Accumulation of Steel and Iron Ore May Be Limited Due to the Improvement of Supply - Demand, Peak Season Characteristics, and Policy Support (1) Steel: The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - **Terminal demand may be supported**: Although the terminal demand for steel in August was under pressure, in mid - to late September, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics may become more obvious, and the replenishment demand before the National Day holiday may be released. The strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment policies, such as the possible restart of Fed rate cuts, the adequacy of fiscal policy space, and the implementation of relevant policies, may support the demand for steel [10][11]. - **Steel production may be under pressure**: Although the profitability of steel mills is in doubt and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, the improvement of steel mill profits still faces challenges due to the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials. The upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may also put pressure on steel production, especially for building materials [22][23]. - **The pressure of inventory accumulation of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited**: Although the terminal demand in August was under pressure and the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline last week, the peak season characteristics and policy support may lead to marginal improvement in demand, and the overall inventory accumulation pressure of rebar and hot - rolled coil may be limited [37]. (2) Iron Ore: Steel Mill Profits Are Still Supported, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Futures Prices - **Iron ore demand may be resilient in the short term but under pressure in the long term**: Although the upcoming steel industry stability - growth plan may suppress iron ore demand in the long term, in the short term, the peak season characteristics, the release of replenishment demand before the National Day holiday, and policy support may keep the iron ore demand resilient. However, the uncertain terminal demand and supply disturbances of raw materials may still pose challenges to steel mill profits and iron ore demand [40][42]. - **The pressure of tight supply of iron ore may be limited**: Overseas ore shipments are entering the peak season, and the new production capacity of overseas mines and domestic "Cornerstone Plan" may increase the supply of iron ore, so the pressure of tight supply may be limited [48]. - **The short - term inventory accumulation of iron ore ports may be limited**: Although there is long - term pressure on iron ore demand and inventory accumulation, the short - term demand may remain resilient due to the peak season and policy support, so the short - term inventory accumulation amplitude of iron ore ports may be limited [53]. 3. The Peak Season and Holiday Characteristics Become More Obvious, and the Strengthening of Stability - Growth Policies May Lead to a Bullish Bias in Steel and Iron Ore Futures Prices - **Steel**: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel producers and traders with high inventory levels are advised to speed up the sales rhythm, while traders with low inventory levels and downstream and terminal procurement enterprises can slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market. Investors are advised to take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [55][56]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price may fluctuate with a bullish bias. Steel mills or traders with low inventory levels are advised to slow down the procurement rhythm or establish short - term buying hedging positions on the futures market, while traders with high inventory levels can speed up the sales rhythm. Investors are advised to use a range - trading strategy of high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [57].

| 铁矿石产业期现日报 | | | | 1 12 12 AM | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 822.0 | 830.8 | -8.8 | -1.1% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 838.1 | 848.0 | -9.9 | -1.2% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 834.1 | 842.7 | -8.6 | -1.0% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 845.6 | 851.0 | -5.4 | -0.6% | | | 01合约基差:卡粉 | 26.5 | -16.7 | 43.2 | 258.8% | | | 01合约基差:PB粉 | 42.6 | 0.5 | 42.1 | 8067.4% | 元/肥 | | 01合约基差:巴混粉 | 38.6 | -4.8 | 43.4 | 908.0% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel price is in a weak downward trend, with the decline already factoring in the decrease in apparent demand. Further decline is subject to policy interference on the raw material supply side. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is currently in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The 2601 contract showed an oscillating downward trend. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the market anticipates 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. It is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, the price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high prices and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of most steel products declined slightly. For example, the spot price of threaded steel in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price dropped by 11 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace threaded steel increased by 3 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter threaded steel decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, and the profit of South China threaded steel increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decrease of 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types declined. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder dropped by 9.9 to 838.1, a decrease of 1.2%. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore types increased significantly [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decrease of 22.5%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 67.3 to 6636.8, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the Coke 01 contract increased by 27 to 1630, a rise of 1.7%. The Coking Coal 01 contract increased by 25 to 1142, a rise of 2.2% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average pig iron output increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, an increase of 1.2%. The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly. For example, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory decreased by 36.5 to 883.5, a decrease of 4.0% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: Steel apparent demand remains at a low level in the off - season without signs of recovery. There is an expected increase in apparent demand during the peak season from August to September, and inventory accumulation will slow down. Steel supply - demand has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Steel prices will follow the expected changes in the coking coal supply side. For the January contract, pay attention to the support level of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1] - **Iron Ore Industry**: The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined. The subsequent arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease. Steel mill profit margins have slightly declined, but after major events, iron ore production will increase this week, and steel mills' replenishment demand will rise. It is expected that supply and demand will increase simultaneously this week. Port inventory has slightly increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventory has decreased. Due to high steel mill profitability, iron ore production in September will remain at a relatively high level, and low port inventory provides support for iron ore. Pay attention to steel mill production control in the fourth quarter. Iron ore is currently in a balanced and tight pattern, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke Industry**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile decline, with intense price fluctuations. Spot auction prices were stable to weak, and Mongolian coal quotes were weak. Domestic coking coal auctions have weakened, and downstream procurement willingness has decreased. After the lifting of production restrictions, coal mines in major producing areas are resuming production, and market supply - demand has eased. Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and after the first round of price cuts in coke spot, it remained stable. The supply of coke will gradually become more abundant, with an expected 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. For both coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take profit on short positions, treat the market with a volatile view, and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and most futures contract prices also declined [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel product costs and profits changed, such as the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increasing by 1 yuan, and North China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 20 yuan [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 11.1 to 229.0 (a 4.6% decline), and the production of five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7 (a 2.7% decline) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7 (a 2.2% increase), and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.8 (an 8.3% decline), and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8 (a 3.5% decline) [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract for some types increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 (a 3.6% increase), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 (a 5.6% decrease) [3] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0 (a 3.1% decline), and the global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2 (a 22.5% decline) [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the national crude steel monthly output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 (a 4.2% decline) [3] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 24.3 to 13849.65 (a 0.2% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 6686.8 (a 0.7% decline) [3] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Coking Coal and Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures showed a volatile rebound, and coking coal futures showed a volatile decline. The first - round price cut of coke spot has been implemented, and coking coal spot auction prices are stable to weak [5] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline), and the raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 43.1 to 817.3 (a 5.0% decline) [5] Demand - The weekly iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8 (a 4.7% decline), and the weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3 (a 0.34% decline) [5] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, and port inventory decreased. Coking coal inventory in coal mines, coal - washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills decreased, while port and border - crossing inventory increased slightly [5]

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明, 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可你的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发明货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供�考，报告中的信息或所靠达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或狗价，投资者撰此 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期始特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货节面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月11日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai government has optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents, which boosts the sentiment of the black industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy, thus boosting the sentiment of the black industry [3][6]. - Last week, the production, apparent demand, and inventory of the five major steel products all increased month - on - month. The apparent demand for rebar was still weak despite a low - level recovery, and the inventory increased but the absolute value was not large. The hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern production restrictions. The spot market was weak, and the futures price maintained a weak and volatile trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3160 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan, a rise rate of 0.70%, a total trading volume of 17,417,436 lots, and a total open interest of 2,897,345 lots [4]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3346 yuan/ton, a fall of 43 yuan, a fall rate of - 1.27%, a total trading volume of 5,457,540 lots, and a total open interest of 1,454,760 lots [4]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 787.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.5 yuan, a rise rate of 0.06%, a total trading volume of 1,844,920 lots, and a total open interest of 410,009 lots [4]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1151.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 64.5 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.31%, a total trading volume of 17,695,850 lots, and a total open interest of 764,344 lots [4]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1643.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 93.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.36%, a total trading volume of 344,282 lots, and a total open interest of 51,526 lots [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend. Stimulated by policy benefits such as the relaxation of the Shanghai property market, the market first rose and then fell. Due to the weak fundamentals, steel prices were slightly weak. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3000 (- 20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3380 (- 20) yuan/ton [6]. - In terms of macro - aspects, Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" [6]. - In terms of industry, last week, rebar production was 2210000 tons, an increase of 60000 tons month - on - month; apparent demand was 2040000 tons, an increase of 90000 tons; factory inventory was 1700000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; social inventory was 4540000 tons, an increase of 210000 tons; and total inventory was 6230000 tons, an increase of 160000 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 3250000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; factory inventory was 800000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons; social inventory was 2860000 tons, an increase of 30000 tons; total inventory was 3650000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; and apparent demand was 3210000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [7]. 3. Industry News - Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents [8][9]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, including 53.83 billion yuan of general bonds and 277.76 billion yuan of special bonds [13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel products, including futures and monthly spread trends, basis trends, spot regional price difference trends, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [11][12][13] etc.