Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 947.37 tons of gold as of July 9, 2025, reflecting an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors including the strength of the US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of July 9, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 947.37 tons of gold, an increase of 0.86 tons from the previous day [6]. - The report indicates a significant change in gold ETF holdings, which is crucial for understanding market trends [1][3]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On July 9, gold prices experienced a drop to a low of $3282.91 per ounce before rebounding to close at $3313.5 per ounce, marking an increase of $11.94 or 0.36% [6]. - The price fluctuations were primarily driven by a strong US dollar and rising Treasury yields, alongside optimistic investor sentiment regarding trade agreements [6]. Group 3: Market Influences - The recent strength in employment data has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, leading to a significant unwinding of long positions in Treasury futures [6]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding the timing and necessity of future rate cuts, with most expecting a potential cut later in the year [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold has weakened, with the price breaking the upward channel formed since mid-February [6]. - Key support levels are identified at $3297 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and $3200, while resistance is noted at $3345 (21-day moving average) and $3375 (23.6% Fibonacci level) [6].

Group 1 - The economic uncertainty is decreasing as policy outlook becomes clearer, particularly with the potential for a trade agreement between the US and India, and the effective communication between China and the US [2] - The overall effective tariff rate in the US is expected to decline to 11.7%, which could lead to reduced uncertainty in trade relations [2] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" has passed in the Senate, outlining the future direction of the Trump administration, suggesting a decrease in economic uncertainty in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's officials have softened their stance on interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating that the economic impact of tariffs may be less severe than previously thought [3] - There is a strong expectation for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a significant chance of a cut in September [3] - The current macroeconomic conditions suggest a cautiously optimistic stance from the Federal Reserve, which could support a bullish trend in the US stock market [3] Group 3 - Despite potential monetary policy benefits for the US stock market, the current valuations of major indices are high, limiting the upside potential [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is nearing its peak, indicating a high valuation environment [4] Group 4 - The S&P 500 has shown a strong upward trend, breaking through previous resistance levels, with the potential to challenge the 6500 mark in the future [6]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year [11] - China's economic increment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan [11] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve and Trade Relations - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes revealed a division among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with three main viewpoints: cut rates this year but exclude July, maintain current rates, or act immediately in the next meeting [9] - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, stating that rates are at least 3 percentage points too high [11] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed positive performance with the Dow Jones up by 0.49%, S&P 500 up by 0.61%, and Nasdaq up by 0.94% [3] - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.06%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.76% [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Spot gold closed at $3,313.73 per ounce, up by 0.37%, while spot silver fell by 1% to $36.37 per ounce [6] - WTI crude oil closed at $67.19 per barrel, up by 0.03%, and Brent crude oil closed at $69.47 per barrel, up by 0.08% [6] Group 5: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin reached a new historical high of nearly $112,000 per coin, increasing by almost 3% [5] - Ethereum surged over 5%, approaching the $2,800 mark [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's tariffs have lost their market impact, and the delay in tariff deadlines is seen as a negotiation tactic rather than a genuine policy change [1][2][3] - Analysts suggest that the market is becoming numb to the erratic policies of the Trump administration, leading to a potential oversight of the risks associated with industry tariffs [1][3] - The extension of the tariff deadline until August 1 has led traders to believe that the likelihood of sudden tariff imposition is decreasing, reinforcing the view that Trump is committed to reaching a trade agreement [1][3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has paralyzed decision-making for companies trying to adapt to the changing tariff landscape, as executives are working to adjust supply chains and cost structures to avoid price increases [3] - Market sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing uncertainty, with analysts indicating that the market may become more volatile leading up to August 1 due to increased trade-related headlines [3]

欧盟委员会：目标是在8月1日前与美国达成贸易协议，甚至可能在未来几天内达成协议。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩周三在欧洲议会发表讲话时表示，欧盟正在与特朗普政府密切合作，以达成一项贸易协议，但同时正在为各种情况做好准备。 ...

Trade Negotiations - The EU is closely collaborating with the Trump administration to reach a trade agreement, while also preparing for various scenarios [1] - The EU may face less favorable treatment than the UK in a potential trade agreement with the US [1] Market Access - The EU is unlikely to secure the same level of US market access for its steel, automotive, and other products as the UK [1]

Core Insights - Domestic gold prices have slightly decreased, with Chow Sang Sang experiencing the highest drop of 8 CNY per gram, now priced at 999 CNY per gram, while Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram [1][2] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold stores has narrowed to 30 CNY per gram [1] - The international gold market is influenced by U.S. tariffs on imports, with spot gold prices showing a decline following the announcement [5] Domestic Gold Prices - Chow Sang Sang gold price: 999 CNY/gram, down 8 CNY [2] - Other notable prices include: - Lao Miao: 995 CNY/gram, down 5 CNY - Liufu: 998 CNY/gram, down 7 CNY - Zhou Dafu: 998 CNY/gram, down 7 CNY - Zhou Liufu: 978 CNY/gram, down 7 CNY - Jin Zun: 998 CNY/gram, down 7 CNY - Lao Fengxiang: 998 CNY/gram, down 6 CNY - Chao Hong Ji: 998 CNY/gram, down 7 CNY - Cai Bai: 978 CNY/gram, unchanged - Shanghai China Gold: 969 CNY/gram, unchanged - Zhou Da Sheng: 998 CNY/gram, down 7 CNY [2] Domestic Gold Recycling Prices - Today's gold recycling price has decreased by 7.8 CNY per gram, with the following notable prices: - Overall gold recycling price: 754.20 CNY/gram - Cai Bai: 759.60 CNY/gram - Chow Sang Sang: 758.30 CNY/gram - Zhou Dafu: 761.70 CNY/gram - Lao Fengxiang: 767.20 CNY/gram [3] International Gold Market - Following the announcement of tariffs by U.S. President Trump, spot gold prices fell to 3287.89 USD/ounce, down 0.41% [5] - Market optimism regarding trade agreements has reduced the upward momentum for gold [5] - Upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes may further influence gold price trends [5]

【行情回顾】 周三（7月9日），周二，美元指数先跌后涨，日内一度升至97.82的日内高点，但随后回吐日内所有涨 幅并转跌，最终收跌0.06%，报97.46。因市场预计美国及其贸易伙伴之间将达成贸易协议，这提振了风 险情绪，且美元走强和美债收益率上升进一步对金价增加压力。现货黄金日内大跌1%，盘中一度失守 3300美元大关，最终收跌1.05%，收报3301.63美元/盎司；现货白银微跌0.04%，报36.72美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 根据贝森特上周的说法，政府正在考虑的一个方案是，特朗普将在明年1月31日美联储理事库格勒离任 后提名一位新成员填补该14年任期的空缺，并计划由该新理事成为明年5月鲍威尔卸任后的新主席。 "或者我们也可以等到5月直接任命新主席。只不过那样的话，主席任期只有两年，"贝森特补充说。 【交易思路】 国际黄金：下方关注3295美元或3273美元附近支撑；上方关注3320美元或3333美元附近阻力； 现货白银：下方关注36.40美元或36.15美元支撑；上方关注36.80美元或37.00美元阻力。 周二，美国总统特朗普宣称，金砖国家若试图挑战美元作为全球储备货币的地位，将面临额外10%的关 ...

Group 1 - The EU is nearing a trade agreement with the US, which may involve higher tariffs than those negotiated by the UK, causing concern among some European nations [2][3] - A temporary "framework" agreement is being prepared, setting US tariffs at 10%, aligning with the baseline tariffs imposed on the UK by Trump [2][3] - The EU does not expect to achieve the same market access in the US for steel, automobiles, and other products as the UK has [2][3] Group 2 - The UK has secured better terms on sector-specific tariffs, including a 10% tariff on a quota of 100,000 cars, compared to the 25% faced by other exporters [4] - The UK also received zero tariffs on steel and aluminum, although implementation is still pending [4] - In return, the UK agreed to meet US demands regarding supply chain roles and provided tariff-free quotas for beef and bioethanol [4] Group 3 - The EU is preparing to reduce its trade surplus with the US by committing to purchase more American weapons and liquefied natural gas [5] - The EU has paused its retaliatory actions during negotiations but plans to implement counter-tariffs on $210 billion worth of US goods starting July 14 [5] - A proposal for additional tariffs on $95 billion worth of US goods, including aircraft and alcohol, is being prepared, requiring approval from member states [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.423%, while the real yield also rose by 4 basis points to 2.073% [1] - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.20% to 97.70, making gold priced in dollars more expensive for overseas buyers [2] - Japan and South Korea are accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S. to soften President Trump's stance on new tariffs effective August 1 [3] Group 2 - Despite the announcement of new tariffs, interest in gold as a safe-haven asset has decreased, leading to a drop in gold prices by over 1% during North American trading [5] - Optimism regarding trade agreements has increased market risk appetite, which has suppressed gold prices [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has triggered a "sell signal," indicating that sellers have outnumbered buyers, with gold needing to break below $3,246 per ounce for further declines [6] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold are at $3,311, $3,324, and $3,340, while support levels are at $3,277, $3,253, and $3,249 [7] - The momentum for gold remains strong, with a quantitative cycle greater than three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [7] Group 4 - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. wholesale sales for May and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 4 [9]