欧洲央行管委帕内塔：贸易谈判的结果尚不确定，但对欧洲经济的影响必将十分重大。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the non - ferrous metals market is complex, affected by factors such as trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory changes. Each metal has its own unique price trends and influencing factors [1][3][4][5][6][8][10][12][14]. - For copper, although there is support from supply tightness, attention should be paid to the risk of economic slowdown in the medium - term. For aluminum, low inventory supports prices, but the market atmosphere is not optimistic. For lead, the cost support may weaken if scrap prices fall further. For zinc, there is a risk of price decline as inventory accumulates. For tin, the supply is expected to turn looser, and demand is dragging down prices. For nickel, macro uncertainty is high, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short. For lithium carbonate, prices may continue to decline without supply disruptions. For alumina, it is recommended to short at high prices. For stainless steel, the market may continue to decline weakly [1][3][4][5][6][8][10][12][14]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose slightly by 0.01% to $9567/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 77850 yuan/ton. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 77200 - 78400 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9450 - 9650 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1925 to 152375 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 3.2 million tons. The social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly [1]. - Market situation: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the short - term supply disruptions support copper prices. However, pay attention to the risk of economic slowdown in the medium - term [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.59% to $2450/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20110 yuan/ton. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2430 - 2480 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 1.2 million hands to 52.6 million hands, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 5.2 million tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased [3]. - Market situation: Low inventory supports aluminum prices, but the market atmosphere is not optimistic, and the trade situation is volatile [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 0.26% to 16745 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1987.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased to 4.57 million tons [4]. - Market situation: The production of recycled lead enterprises is decreasing, and the cost support may weaken if scrap prices fall further [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 1.11% to 22407 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2716.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 7.50 million tons, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium - term [5]. - Market situation: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and there is a risk of price decline as inventory accumulates [5]. Tin - Price: Tin prices continued to fall due to the expectation of mine restart. The reference range for domestic main contract is 240000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is 29000 - 32000 dollars/ton [6][7]. - Inventory: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14 to 7984 tons, and LME inventory increased by 20 to 2680 tons [7]. - Market situation: The supply is expected to turn looser, and demand is weak, dragging down prices [6][7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices rebounded significantly. The reference range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. - Market situation: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak. Macro uncertainty is high, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index fell 1.62% to 60737 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed 2.52% lower at 58860 yuan. The reference range for GC lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 58000 - 59800 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 0.2% to 131571 tons [10]. - Market situation: The supply clearance is slow, and prices may continue to decline without supply disruptions [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 1% to 2945 yuan/ton. The reference range for domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.33 to 14.02 million tons [12]. - Market situation: The alumina production capacity is in excess, and it is recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to changes in bauxite prices [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12680 yuan/ton, down 1.36%. The 304 stainless - steel market may continue to decline weakly in the short - term [14]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased by 0.85% to 111.77 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14]. - Market situation: The spot price is under pressure, and the market is in a difficult situation of "the lower the price, the harder to sell" [14].

日度报告——综合晨报 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-30 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上诉法院批准暂缓执行贸易法院命令 美国上诉法院暂缓了执行贸易法院命令，特朗普关税政策继续 执行，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数走低。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国至 5 月 24 日当周初请失业金人数 24 万人 综 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，主要受到特朗普对等关税被贸易法院 阻止后又被最高法院恢复的事件扰动，市场避险情绪先降后升。 美国政府目前仍在与不同国家进行贸易谈判。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 2660 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 美关税政策被叫停对于债市的影响主要集中在情绪层面。国债 期货估值基本合理，短线存在做多机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 首批收购存量商品房专项债落地 本周五大品种去库表现尚可，螺纹产量下降带动降库加快。卷 板需求维持韧性，环比有所回升，钢价也有所反弹。但需求走 弱预期仍难证伪，双焦表现弱势，预计钢价反弹空间有限。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 马来西亚计划在 2030 年前将 B30 生物燃料用于运输行业 扫描二维 ...

白宫新闻秘书Leavitt：美国将继续推进贸易谈判。 ...

白宫新闻秘书莱维特：美国将继续推进贸易谈判。 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔、张云杰 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 关云杰 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 特朗普正在为前期的"一意孤行"付出代价。 百日新政之后，贸易谈判不顺利，俄乌和谈频繁打脸，美债压力居高不下，今天美国国际 贸易法院再来"背刺"一刀，要求撤销滥用《国际紧急经济权力法案》（IEEPA）而落地的关税。对此，我们回答几个问题： 效力如何？ 法律判决的规格不低。 美国国际贸易法院属于美国联邦法院，法官需要总统任命、国会通过。该法院依据美国宪法第三条设立，位于纽约 市，具有全国范围的管辖权。主要审理关税、进口税、贸易壁垒等纠纷，并审查与贸易法规相关的行政决定。 上升到宪法和分权的高度。 用MAGA擅长的宏观叙事和"国本"问题反制特朗普，确实稳准狠：税收权力归国会，这是西方民主国家的重要 制度基础之一；总统在贸易关税上"独断"的权力过大，威胁到美国分权的传统。 其实今年美国国会已经有所动作。4月参议院提出两党法案《2025贸易审查法案》，旨在限制总统单方面征收关税的权力，但由于共和党 ...

该说法指的是特朗普一贯采取的策略：先宣布重磅加征关税，令市场剧烈震荡，随后又延迟或放宽关税 措施，使市场反弹。这种"雷声大雨点小"的做法引发了外界对其政策连贯性和执行力的质疑。 在接受采访时，特朗普否认自己曾"退缩"，并强调这正是其谈判策略的一部分。他以欧盟为例指出，在 他宣布对欧盟征收50%的进口关税后，两天之内便宣布延迟实施，而欧盟方面也立刻表现出愿意展开磋 商。 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普周三在白宫回应了外界对其关税政策"反复无常"的批评，特别是针 对金融时报专栏作家所提出的"TACO"一词，即"Trump Always Chickens Out(特朗普总是退缩)"。 在美联储今日发布的最新会议纪要中，官员警告称，特朗普发动的全球贸易战导致美国失去避险地位可 能对美国经济产生"长期"影响。纪要显示，一些利率制定者关注到，在特朗普宣布对贸易伙伴全面征收 关税后的几周内，美国国债、股票和美元价格的下跌。会议纪要表示："这些与会者指出，这种相关性 的持续转变，或者美国资产被视为避风港地位的减弱，可能对经济产生长期影响。"5月初的FOMC会议 是特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布加征关税后出现的动荡之后的首 ...

Group 1 - The CEO of the National Bank of Canada highlighted that global trade tensions and ongoing trade negotiations continue to create uncertainty, impacting the economy [1] - There is an increase in geopolitical and geoeconomic instability as a result of these trade issues [1]

Group 1 - India seeks to maintain high tariffs on sensitive agricultural products such as food grains and dairy, despite proposing to reduce tariffs on items like almonds in negotiations with the US [1][5][6] - The US has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on non-US manufactured smartphones, with President Trump indicating he does not want Apple to establish manufacturing in India [3][4] - India's response to US tariffs includes plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on US products valued at $7.6 billion, with a potential tariff amounting to $1.91 billion [5][6] Group 2 - India currently imposes tariffs of 70%-80% on US rice and 30%-60% on US dairy products, while maintaining a firm stance on high tariffs for core agricultural products [6][7] - Recent trade agreements, such as with the UK, show India's willingness to reduce tariffs on certain products, but it remains protective of its sensitive agricultural sectors [7][8] - The Indian government aims to double bilateral trade with the US to $500 billion by 2030, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing trade relations while protecting domestic industries [7][8]

本周初黄金涨势受阻，进入震荡调整阶段。此前支撑金价上行的关键因素——特朗普拟于6月1日对欧盟加征 50%关税的威胁出现转机，市场对此前贸易不确定性的担忧显著缓解。具体而言，上周末特朗普宣布将关税实 施日期延后至7月9日，而周一欧盟首席贸易代表表态称将努力在截止日前达成协议。受此影响，市场风险偏好 明显回升，推动美股于周二大幅上涨，黄金的避险需求随之减弱。后续需持续关注贸易谈判进程，同时地缘政 治局势及美联储货币政策调整亦可能对金价产生影响。翁老师提醒日内重点关注美联储会议纪要披露的相关信 息。 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强大 的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投资有 风险，盈亏自负。 操作策略： 1.黄金建议反弹3335-3340区域做空，止损在3348，目标看3320-3290，破位持有 4小时级别图显示，目前黄金上涨动能较弱，在上探关键阻力位后遇阻回落，当前价格运行于布林带中轨与下轨 区间，布林带整体形态保持平稳，尚未出现明显开口迹象；小时图显示，黄金在回调后进入震荡整理阶段，布 林 ...