证券研究报告·公司深度研究·风电设备 大金重工（002487） 管桩出海厚积薄发，未来成长性确定 2025 年 04 月 20 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4325 | 3780 | 5727 | 7522 | 8933 | | 同比（%） | (15.30) | (12.61) | 51.52 | 31.34 | 18.76 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 425.16 | 473.88 | 852.62 | 1,211.19 | 1,542.78 | | 同比（%） | (5.58) | 11.46 | 79.92 | 42.06 | 27.38 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.74 | 1.34 | 1.90 | 2.42 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 40.49 | 36.32 | 20.19 | 14.21 | 11.16 | [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company achieved strong profitability in 2024, with a sales gross margin reaching 29.83%, the highest level in nearly a decade, and a net profit margin of 12.54%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.59 percentage points and 2.71 percentage points respectively [1] - The European offshore wind auction capacity reached a historical high in 2024, with a total of 36.8GW, of which offshore wind accounted for over half, indicating a robust market for future orders [2] - The company is actively expanding its market presence beyond Europe into Japan, Southeast Asia, and Australia, with sufficient overseas orders supporting future growth [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 3.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, while overseas revenue accounted for nearly 50% of the wind power equipment segment [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.46% [1] - The company expects revenues of 5.92 billion, 7.80 billion, and 9.28 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 857 million, 1.19 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan [9][11] Market Opportunities - The company has successfully delivered various offshore wind projects in Europe, including significant contracts with major clients such as RWE and GE, enhancing its reputation and market share [2] - The company is also focusing on the floating foundation market, with several projects expected to be launched in the coming years, indicating a growing demand for innovative offshore solutions [7] Strategic Positioning - The company's strategy of integrating offshore monopiles, towers, and self-built marine vessels is expected to solidify its competitive edge in the offshore engineering sector [9] - The transition to a DAP delivery model is anticipated to enhance profitability and operational efficiency, supported by a robust logistics framework [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrated strong profitability in 2024, achieving a net profit of 4.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.46%, despite a 12.61% decline in revenue to 37.80 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 29.83%, an increase of 6.59 percentage points year-on-year, marking the highest level in nearly a decade [1]. - The net profit margin reached 12.54%, up by 2.71 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a net profit of 1.92 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 1018% [1]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Orders - In 2024, European offshore wind project auctions reached a historical high of 36.8 GW, with offshore wind accounting for over half of this total, a 46.3% increase from 2023 [2]. - The company has significantly increased its export volume of offshore projects to Europe, delivering nearly 110,000 tons of various offshore products to major clients such as RWE and GE [2]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging markets in Japan, Southeast Asia, and Australia, leveraging its strong performance in Europe to secure new orders [3]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness through a "three-in-one" strategy involving offshore monopiles, self-built marine vessels, and floating foundations [6]. - The company plans to deliver two specialized offshore wind equipment transport vessels by 2025, aiming to establish a fleet of 10-20 large transport vessels [3]. - The company is also focusing on the floating foundation market, with several projects expected to be launched in Europe by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The transition to a DAP delivery model is expected to strengthen the company's product profitability and overall supply capabilities [5]. - The company anticipates continued growth in overseas orders, supported by favorable market conditions and its competitive advantages [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 59.21 billion yuan, 78.05 billion yuan, and 92.79 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.57 billion yuan, 11.88 billion yuan, and 15.03 billion yuan [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][30]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in annual performance, with a revenue of 3.78 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 474 million yuan, an increase of 11.46% year-on-year. The gross profit margin for 2024 was 29.83%, up by 6.39 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 12.54%, up by 2.71 percentage points [1][7]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw remarkable performance, with revenue reaching 1.473 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 55.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 192 million yuan, a staggering year-on-year increase of 1017.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77.44% [1][18]. - The company has successfully delivered nearly 110,000 tons of offshore wind products in 2024, achieving its first DAP delivery. The overseas revenue reached 1.733 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 50% of the wind power equipment segment's revenue [2][23]. - The European offshore wind market is expected to see a recovery, with approximately 20GW of projects auctioned in 2024, the highest annual auction volume in recent years. The company has successfully passed the qualification supplier certification of most leading European owners, positioning it to benefit from this recovery [3][26]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 858 million yuan, 1.287 billion yuan, and 1.597 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19, 12, and 10 times [3][26]. - The financial forecast indicates a revenue increase to 4.904 billion yuan in 2025, a growth of 29.7% compared to 2024, and a net profit increase of 81% [4][28]. - The company's gross profit margin is projected to improve to 32% in 2025, with a net asset return (ROE) of 11.2% [4][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a robust order flow and has a strong performance in overseas markets, particularly in high-value offshore engineering products, which is expected to drive revenue growth [5][6]. - The company has strategically reduced low-margin domestic business, focusing on higher-margin exports, resulting in improved gross margins [5]. - The outlook for the offshore wind market is positive, with expectations of increased demand and the company's strong market position likely to lead to significant revenue growth [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3,780 million, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year [5]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 29.8%, up by 5.9 percentage points compared to the previous year [5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue increase of 48.5% year-on-year, driven by high-value product deliveries [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5,941 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 57% [6]. - Net profit is expected to reach 752 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 59% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.18 in 2025, increasing to 2.19 by 2027 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the offshore wind sector, with a strong order backlog and a focus on high-margin products [6]. - The company has successfully passed certification with major European clients, enhancing its competitive position in the market [5]. - The anticipated increase in offshore wind projects in Europe is expected to provide significant growth opportunities for the company [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the offshore wind tower and pile market, with significant growth potential driven by increasing European demand and a favorable pricing environment [2][3][4]. - The company has successfully established itself in the European market, being the first domestic enterprise to export offshore wind towers and large piles, with substantial orders in hand [1][4][17]. - The company's overseas revenue has significantly increased, contributing over 50% to total revenue in the first half of 2024, reflecting a strategic shift towards international markets [22][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in manufacturing wind power products, including towers, piles, and floating foundations, and has become a key player in the global offshore wind equipment manufacturing industry [14][17]. - The company has a clear shareholding structure and experienced management, with the chairman holding approximately 40.14% of the shares [23]. Market Demand and Growth - The European offshore wind market is expected to see a significant increase in demand, with projections of installed capacity reaching 111 GW by 2030 and 317 GW by 2050 [46][48]. - The company is benefiting from a tight supply of offshore piles in Europe, which is expected to drive both volume and price increases in the industry [2][46]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 4.325 billion yuan, with a net profit of 425 million yuan, showing a decline from 2022 due to market conditions, but expected to rebound significantly in the following years [5][4]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 460 million yuan, 773 million yuan, and 1.154 billion yuan, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4][5]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a competitive edge in Europe, where the unit profitability of towers and piles is significantly higher than in the domestic market, enhancing overall profitability [3][4]. - The company is developing its own specialized transportation fleet to improve logistics and reduce costs, further strengthening its competitive position in Europe [17][22]. Industry Context - The offshore wind industry is experiencing a favorable cycle, with increasing government support and investment in renewable energy, particularly in Europe [46][49]. - The report highlights the importance of the company's production base in China, which is strategically positioned to meet the growing demand in international markets [17][22].

查看完整报告 特别申明： 点击注册小程序 2024年公司持续推进海上风电项目海缆交付，海缆系统实现营业收入27.78亿元，同比增长0.41%，毛利率 为39.57%，同比减少9.57个pct，主要系个别项目毛利率水平较低以及23年毛利率基数较高所致；海洋工程 业务实现营业收入8.89亿元，同比增长25.29%，毛利率同比减少2.60个pct至21.93%；在国内海风建设较慢 的背景下，公司重点扩大陆缆市场份额，陆缆系统实现营业收入54.16亿元，同比增长41.52%，毛利率同 比减少0.37个pct至7.59%。 持续推进产能建设，布局海风重点区域 2024年公司持续推进（东部）未来工厂设备技术改造和产能提升，完成二期项目基础设施建设；加快南部 产业基地建设，完成（南部）未来工厂基地建设关键节点；有序推进北部产业基地建设。随着公司东部、 南部、北部产能布局持续推进，将进一步巩固行业竞争优势。 国内外市场持续突破，在手订单规模快速增长 自2024年起，公司持续获得多个海缆订单，充分展现其在海缆领域较强的竞争力，订单包括：Inch Cape Offshore公司海底电缆约18亿元、中能建广东院三峡阳江青洲五、七± ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power equipment and new energy industry, highlighting high growth potential and certainty in sectors like energy storage and lithium batteries [5][11]. Core Insights - Energy storage is expected to maintain high prosperity with a cumulative installed capacity CAGR of 37% from 2023 to 2030, emphasizing the importance of selecting leading companies in the sector [5]. - Lithium battery demand is supported by three main factors: policy-driven growth in new energy vehicle demand, the explosion of energy storage, and a recovery in material supply [5]. - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to rebound in the second half of 2025, driven by high-quality demand and industry collaboration [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From February 28 to March 7, 2025, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.39%, the ChiNext index by 1.61%, and the new energy index by 1.16%, ranking 16th among industries [11]. Valuation Analysis - As of March 7, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the power equipment and new energy industry is 26.64, which is at 29.69% of its 10-year historical valuation percentile, indicating it is at a historical low [15][17]. Industry Data Tracking - The photovoltaic industry is entering a downcycle in pricing, with significant price drops in silicon materials and components, leading to a pressure on profit margins [20][25]. - As of March 5, 2025, the price of high-grade dense silicon is 38.00 yuan/kg, with single-sided monocrystalline PERC components priced at 0.69 yuan/W [21]. Key News Tracking - The report highlights significant developments in the wind power sector, including a total of 4.12GW of wind power projects awarded in February 2025, with major players like Envision and Goldwind leading the bids [50]. - The report also notes the establishment of a new company by State Grid in Xiong'an, indicating ongoing investments in the energy sector [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and wind energy, indicating strong recovery potential in profitability and pricing dynamics [1][6][9]. Core Insights - The government work report emphasizes the development of the renewable energy industry, addressing issues such as "internal competition," the construction of "Shagora" renewable energy bases, and the development of offshore wind power for the first time [1][6][9]. - The solar industry is experiencing a significant recovery in both volume and price, with expectations for continued upward trends in glass and battery cell profitability [1][6][9]. - The wind energy sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing prices and enhancing project profitability, particularly in offshore wind projects [1][6][9]. - The electric grid sector is witnessing a surge in demand for high-voltage equipment, with significant increases in tender amounts for transmission and transformation equipment [1][6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Solar & Energy Storage - The government work report highlights the importance of the renewable energy sector, with new initiatives aimed at addressing structural issues and enhancing supply and demand dynamics [1][6]. - The solar industry is seeing a strong recovery in production and pricing, with expectations for increased output in March [1][6]. - Key components such as glass and battery cells are identified as having the best potential for profitability recovery [1][6]. Wind Energy - The government work report's focus on offshore wind development marks a significant policy shift, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1][6]. - The report anticipates a return to reasonable pricing levels for wind turbines, driven by policy guidance and market demand [1][6]. Electric Grid - The report notes a record high in tender amounts for grid equipment, with a total of 152 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [1][6]. - The demand for high-voltage products is surging, with specific tenders for 750kV equipment showing substantial growth [1][6]. New Energy Vehicles - The report indicates that the overall sales performance of new energy vehicles in February met expectations, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales [2][12][16]. - The introduction of new models, such as the Galaxy E8 and the Wanjie M8, is expected to enhance market competitiveness [12][13]. Lithium Batteries - The report highlights the impact of increased tariffs on lithium batteries, raising the effective tax rate to approximately 50%, which may affect trade dynamics [2][16]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The establishment of a significant venture capital fund for hydrogen energy is expected to attract substantial investment, enhancing the industry's long-term growth prospects [2][10]. - Policy proposals from the recent national congress indicate a shift towards cost reduction and demand expansion in the hydrogen sector [2][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - Domestic offshore wind projects are accelerating, and domestic companies are expanding overseas. The Shenneng Hainan CZ2 offshore wind power demonstration project has completed its main engineering work, with a planned capacity of 1,200 MW, and the first phase has a capacity of 603 MW. Additionally, the Cangnan No. 5 offshore wind project has been approved with a planned capacity of 800 MW [1][67] - The wind power installed capacity in China reached 79.34 GW in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.5%. The total installed capacity of wind power in China reached 520 million kW by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [2][26] - The approval of wind power projects in 2024 totaled 103.41 GW, a year-on-year increase of 63.24%, with onshore wind projects accounting for 87.55 GW and offshore wind projects for 14.62 GW [2][44] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The electric power equipment sector experienced a weekly change of 1.12%, ranking 18th among 31 first-level industries in terms of performance [2][11] - The wind power equipment sub-sector had a weekly change of 0.09%, indicating a middle-range performance [15] Wind Power Industry Chain Tracking - The total installed capacity of wind power in China reached 520 million kW by the end of 2024, with an increase of 79.34 GW in new installations for the year [26][31] - The average utilization rate of wind power in 2024 was 95.9%, with wind power generation accounting for 10.1% of the total electricity consumption [31][36] Investment Recommendations - Companies benefiting from the demand for offshore wind power and the development of deep-sea wind projects include Dongfang Cable, Haili Wind Power, Qifan Cable, and Yaxing Anchor Chain [3][68] - Companies with strong capabilities in expanding overseas markets include Dajin Heavy Industry, Taisen Wind Energy, and Zhenjiang Co., Ltd. [3][68] - Wind turbine manufacturers with recovering profitability include Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, Sany Heavy Energy, and Yunda Co., Ltd. [3][68]