1月17日，中央广播电视总台《2026年春节联欢晚会》顺利完成首次彩排。各类型节目与创新技术应用、舞美视觉设计等要素完成融合， 各环节流程衔接顺畅，晚会整体效果初显。总台马年春晚坚持"欢乐吉祥、喜气洋洋"的主基调，以"骐骥驰骋 势不可挡"为主题，在文化滋 养与科技赋能下，呈现活力满满、蒸蒸日上的新时代奋进气象。 总台马年春晚是"科技+艺术"的再升级，将"科技智造"融入舞美呈现、内容创作等，丰富人们对年味的缤纷想象。 继蛇年春晚扭秧歌的智 能机器人跻身"顶流"后，机器人将再度登上春晚舞台，用科技范和新鲜感的创意火花彰显我国科技进步的新气象。 距离马年春晚还有30天。导演组将精心打磨每一个节目、完善每一处细节，在除夕夜为全球观众呈现一台喜庆热烈、情真意切的春晚，陪 伴家家户户过个热气腾腾的新春佳节。 总台马年春晚从中华优秀传统文化中汲取智慧和力量，将寓意自强不息、锐意进取的生肖马元素巧妙融入创作，坚持"思想+艺术+技术"融 合传播，不断拓宽艺术表达边界。 舞美设计中，灵活运用AI、AR、XR等科技手段，在虚实之间营造出"人在景中、景随人动"的沉浸立体 式视觉效果。 以"马"的纹样造型演绎的艺术装置，构成万马奔腾、 ...

1月9日，复旦大学"南土国际金融政策圆桌会第10期"暨"如何看待当前宏观金融形势系列"第3期在复旦 大学经济学院成功举办。 活动中，上海对外经贸大学世界经济研究所所长张晓莉教授表示，当前全球处于增长乏力、地缘竞争加 剧的复杂时期，跨境资本流动逻辑已从传统的增长与利差驱动，转向安全、政策、技术及观念差异共同 主导的复杂模式。全球FDI（外国直接投资）进入"低增长、高分化"新阶段，发达经济体呈现"冰火两重 天"——欧洲受地缘政治影响FDI下降25%，北美则凭借美国内需复苏和产业政策刺激逆势增长5%；新 兴经济体中，亚洲因制造业与数字产业扩张增长7%，非洲却因基础设施融资停滞下滑42%。同时，资 本流动呈现高波动性，新兴市场非居民证券投资在流入与流出间频繁切换，反映出投资者情绪受利率预 期、地缘事件等因素的快速影响，"避险"与"逐新"成为资本再配置的核心特征。 人民币国际化仍面临多重风险挑战。张晓莉教授表示，全球经济金融"碎片化"加剧，美元排他条款、欧 洲外资审查收紧形成"区域孤岛"；美国试图限制 CIPS在能源贸易中的应用，导致人民币区域渗透节奏 放缓；各国数字货币（CBDC） 监管框架差异也制约了跨境场景落地。 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 还有人担心，随着美台半导体联盟通过此次谈判进一步巩固，韩国半导体企业在晶圆代工领域正努力 追赶台积电，但从长远来看，韩国半导体企业在从美国大型科技公司获得订单方面可能会处于劣势。 半导体是韩国对美国的第二大出口商品，仅次于汽车（出口额达133.7亿美元）。韩国产业通商资源 部前一天召开了两次由部长金正宽主持的紧急会议，会上表示将与美国商务部和业界保持密切沟通， 为谈判做好准备。 也有人认为，现在评估韩国企业在美国投资的利弊还为时尚早，因为需要考虑诸多因素，包括美国高 昂的劳动力成本和物流供应链费用。在当前半导体行业蓬勃发展、存储器短缺导致产品滞销的情况 下，一些人认为美国政府很难要求韩国企业承担额外的关税。一位半导体行业人士表示："虽然计算 很复杂，但很明显，美国正在发出信号，施压韩国加大对半导体行业的投资。" 参考链接 随着中国台湾通过台积电在美国投资建设大型半导体工厂，结束了与美国的关税谈判，韩国政府和半 导体行业的紧张局势日益加剧。韩国政府还面临着与美国政府的另一场博弈，美国政府正试图利用半 导体关税吸引更多投资。三星电子和SK海力士等半导体公司担心，特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML, the global leader in lithography machines, has seen its stock price surge, reaching an all-time high, driven by strong demand from its largest customer, TSMC, and significant capital expenditure increases in the semiconductor industry [2][3][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - ASML's stock price increased by over 6% this week, with a market capitalization surpassing $520 billion [2]. - On January 16, ASML's stock rose by 2.03%, bringing its market value to approximately $526.3 billion, making it the third European stock to exceed this threshold [4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a potential further increase of 70% in ASML's stock price under optimistic scenarios [2]. Group 2: TSMC's Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is set between $52 billion and $56 billion, representing a 32% year-over-year increase from $40.9 billion in 2025 [5]. - This significant increase in capital spending is identified as a key catalyst for ASML's stock price surge [5]. Group 3: Future Projections and Demand - Morgan Stanley forecasts that ASML's EUV lithography machine shipments could reach 80 units by 2027, driven by demand from TSMC, Intel, and Samsung [6]. - The firm anticipates ASML's sales for the fiscal year 2027 to be approximately €46.8 billion, with EBIT reaching €19.7 billion and a gross margin of 56.2% [6]. - The expected earnings per share for 2027 is projected at €45.74, a 57% increase compared to the 2026 forecast [6]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - ASML is set to release its Q4 2025 earnings report on January 28, 2026, which is highly anticipated in the tech sector [8]. - Morgan Stanley estimates Q4 2025 orders to be €7.27 billion, significantly higher than the previous quarter's €5.4 billion, including 19 EUV low-NA tools [8]. - The firm expects ASML's Q4 sales to reach €9.675 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 4% [8]. Group 5: DRAM Market Dynamics - The DRAM market is experiencing unprecedented price increases due to capacity shortages, which is expected to drive significant demand for ASML's EUV and DUV tools [9]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that this trend will continue for at least 1-2 quarters, leading to large-scale capacity expansions in the DRAM manufacturing sector [9][10].

半导体记者蒂姆 · 库尔潘（Tim Culpan）于 1 月 15 日发布博文，报道称伴随着英伟达在 AI 领域的强势 崛起， 苹果在台积电的"头号客户"地位已岌岌可危。 报告指出台积电首席执行官魏哲家于 2025 年 8 月造访苹果总部时，给库克带来了两大冲击：一是必须 接受多年来最大幅度的涨价，二是苹果不再享有产能优先权。 随着 AI 芯片需求井喷，英伟达和 AMD 的 GPU 占据了大量晶圆面积，苹果芯片已无法确保存得一席之 地。 供应链消息指出，在台积电 2025 年的部分季度甚至全年营收贡献上，英伟达可能已经超过苹果；即便 在 2025 年没有超越，这一权力更迭在 2026 年几乎板上钉钉。 财报数据显示，台积电 2025 年营收 1220 亿美元，同比增长 36%，第四季度毛利率更是达到惊人的 62.3%。相比之下，英伟达营收预计飙升 62%，而苹果产品营收仅增长 3.6%。 智能手机增长停滞（仅 11%），而包含 AI 芯片的高性能计算（HPC）板块则激增 48%。台积电预测， 未来五年 AI 板块的平均年增长率将超过 55%，远超公司整体增速。 声明：本文仅为信息交流之用，不构成任何投资建议， ...

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock price has surged to a historical high, driven by positive news and strong guidance from its major client, TSMC, regarding AI-related spending, indicating the start of a robust profit cycle for the company [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - ASML's stock price increased by over 6% this week, with a market capitalization surpassing $520 billion [1]. - On January 16, ASML's stock rose by 2.03%, reaching a market cap of $526.3 billion, making it the third European stock to exceed this threshold [2]. Group 2: TSMC's Capital Expenditure and Its Impact - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a 32% increase from 2025's $40.9 billion [3]. - This significant increase in capital spending is a key catalyst for ASML's stock price surge, with expectations of further growth in the coming years [3]. Group 3: Future Projections and Earnings Estimates - Morgan Stanley forecasts ASML's sales to reach approximately €46.8 billion in fiscal year 2027, with EBIT of €19.7 billion and a gross margin of 56.2% [4]. - The expected earnings per share for 2027 is €45.74, a 57% increase compared to the 2026 estimate of €29.12 [4]. Group 4: Short-Term Outlook and Orders - ASML is expected to report strong order activity in the upcoming quarters, with Q4 2025 orders projected at €7.27 billion, significantly higher than Q3's €5.4 billion [7]. - The anticipated sales for Q4 2025 are €9.675 billion, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth [7]. Group 5: Market Trends and Demand Drivers - The high demand for memory chips is expected to drive capacity expansion among manufacturers, further increasing the demand for ASML's equipment [5]. - The DRAM market's strong performance is likely to lead to a significant capacity expansion wave, boosting demand for ASML's EUV and DUV tools [7].

Core Viewpoint - ASML, the global leader in lithography machines, has reached a historic high in stock price, driven by strong demand from its major client TSMC and the expansion of memory chip production [2][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - ASML's stock price has increased by over 6% this week, with a market capitalization surpassing $520 billion [2]. - The stock reached a market value of $526.3 billion, making it the third European stock to exceed $520 billion [3]. Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - TSMC's significant increase in capital expenditure is a key catalyst for ASML's stock surge, with a projected capital expenditure of $52-56 billion for 2026, representing a 32% year-over-year increase [4]. - Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast for TSMC's EUV lithography machine purchases from approximately 20 units to 29 units for 2026, and from 28 units to 40 units for 2027 [4]. Group 3: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts that ASML's sales will reach approximately €46.8 billion in fiscal year 2027, with EBIT of €19.7 billion and a gross margin of 56.2% [5]. - The expected earnings per share for 2027 is €45.74, a 57% increase compared to the 2026 forecast [5]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - ASML is set to release its Q4 2025 earnings report on January 28, 2026, which is anticipated to be a focal point for the tech industry [8]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts Q4 2025 orders to be €7.27 billion, significantly higher than the previous quarter's €5.4 billion [8]. Group 5: Market Trends - The high prices in the DRAM market are expected to lead to a significant expansion in production capacity, which will drive demand for ASML's EUV and DUV tools [9]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that most capacity investments will materialize between 2026 and 2027, preparing for demand in 2027-2028 [9].

AI的正确打开方式是建立思维领域的"缓冲带"。我们应对自己的心智、认知掌握主动权，有意识地建立 一个"AI缓冲带"，即面对新问题，先从自己的角度给出答案，再寻求AI的深化和扩充。 未来，AI将深度融入人们的工作与生活，人机共生需要智慧共处。我们要做AI的真正"驾驭者"。学校应 将AI素养教育融入日常教学，开设AI工具合理使用、信息辨别、批判性思维培养等相关课程，同时优 化考核机制，鼓励学生自主思考问题，充分发挥思维主动性。对借助AI作弊的行为明确规范，营造"善 用AI而非依赖AI"的氛围。 在科技高速发展的背景下，青年要提升自主认知能力，遇到问题尝试先独立思考，再用AI辅助深化。 我们要主动学习AI相关知识，了解其工作原理与局限性，避免盲目信任AI。同时，我们还应培养自律 意识，合理规划使用AI的频率，在学习、创作等核心能力培养场景主动"脱离AI"，锻炼自己成为AI 的"驾驭者"，以"主导者"的姿态使用AI。 （作者分别为大连海事大学副教授、大连海事大学马克思主义学院硕士研究生） 来源：中国青年报客户端 近日，中国青年报社社会调查中心联合问卷网对1334名受访者进行的一项调查显示，56.7%的受访者每 天都会 ...

不少大型企业迎来了一位"特殊"的首席AI官——CEO亲自披挂上阵。波士顿咨询公司（BCG）2026 年"AI雷达"（AI Radar）系列调研发现，近四分之三的CEO表示自己是组织内AI战略的主要决策者，人 数占比是去年的两倍。 CEO逐渐认识到，AI是技术，但又不止于技术。AI打开了组织运作的崭新大门，涉及战略、运营、文 化、风险与人才等方方面面。而CEO是组织中同时具备决策权与大局观的领袖，通过与管理团队紧密协 同，打通组织和管理的关节，做到连点成线、连线成面。 随着众多CEO挑起AI重任并主导相关举措，2026年将成为AI战略的关键一年。事实上，CEO抱有"不成 功便成仁"的共识：半数CEO认为，若AI战略未能成功带来回报，其职业生涯可能会受到影响。 为更好地履行全新的AI相关职责，CEO今年计划加码投资AI领域。2026年预计企业AI投资额将翻一 番，从占总营收的0.8%增至约1.7%。 BCG连续三年发布"AI雷达"全球调研报告，把脉企业高管对AI的态度与思考。今年来自16个市场、近 2,400名高管参与调研，其中包括640名CEO。 AI投资持续加码 企业AI投资增长势头延续，这一趋势反映出AI正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. AI stock rally continues, driven by strong earnings from TSMC, but signs of caution are emerging as some investors rotate out of positions and precious metals show unusual strength, indicating potential hedging against risks [1][13]. Group 1: AI and Semiconductor Sector - TSMC's Q4 results confirmed ongoing AI infrastructure spending, beating estimates and raising its 2026 capex forecast, leading to bullish ratings from major banks [2]. - The semiconductor supply chain benefited from this momentum, with Jefferies raising Nvidia's price target to $275, while AMD's stock surged 11% due to strong performance in AI testing [3]. - AMD's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 60, indicating strong momentum without being overbought, suggesting a healthy rally [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Stock Movements - Stanley Druckenmiller sold his entire Nvidia stake, indicating a belief that easy gains for the stock may be over, with analysts divided on Nvidia's future prospects [5]. - Retail investors are increasingly engaging with high-beta stocks, as seen with AST SpaceMobile's significant price increase driven by social media sentiment [6]. - Micron Technology showed rational momentum with a 42% increase over the past month, supported by strong earnings growth and favorable valuation metrics [7]. Group 3: Tesla's Challenges - Tesla's stock has struggled, gaining only 0.6% this week and down 8% over the past month, with significant sales declines in key markets [8]. - The upcoming transition to a subscription model for Full Self-Driving (FSD) is tied to ambitious growth targets, but the product remains at Level 2, facing competition from other companies [9]. Group 4: Precious Metals and Economic Signals - Silver and gold prices have surged, with silver up 20% this week and 43% over the past month, indicating potential hedging against economic instability [11]. - Amazon's copper supply deal with Rio Tinto for AWS data centers highlights the importance of securing physical commodity supply chains amid AI infrastructure demands [12].