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2026年资本市场有哪些机会?专家解读来了
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2026-01-01 14:34
近期,多场重要会议对2026年经济政策作出前瞻,政策新信号将给资本市场带来哪些影响?带着这一核心问题,中国证券 报记者采访了7位业内专家。 中央经济工作会议传递了哪些重要信号? 左:钱学宁中:罗煜右:方悦肖汶昊、刘宗跃/摄 中央经济工作会议提出,坚持投资于物与投资于人紧密结合。"投资于人"带来哪些产业机会?如何通过资本市场建设推 进"投资于人"? 中国人民大学财政金融学院教授罗煜:人工智能等新技术持续推进,不仅推动传统行业催生新的需求,还会孕育全新的产 业和职业,目前人工智能、金融科技等领域,以及养老、医疗照看等情感互动类服务均存在供给缺口,其中蕴含着产业投 资机会。 此外,应完善健康、养老、终身学习等民生领域保障,关注银发经济领域的需求,养老金管理、养老保险等养老金融有望 深化发展,加大养老院、康复医院等基础设施投融资。2026年的产业政策聚焦新质生产力和提振内需,对资本市场而言, 人工智能、低空经济等新质生产力相关板块和内需消费领域值得关注。 中国首席经济学家论坛秘书长钱学宁:从产业角度来看,新兴产业往往是资本和技术密集型产业,需要合适的人力资源进 行匹配,发展上述产业也是促进就业的重要抓手。活跃的资本市 ...
十大顶级经济学家展望2026
21世纪经济报道· 2026-01-01 10:36
21世纪经济报道2025年终特刊专访10位经济领域顶级专家学者,把脉当下,寻路2026的方向与机会。 专访刘世锦 : 打造强大的货币与资本市场,为创新和消费架桥 下一步中国需要推进以全链条技术和产业布局为特征的制造强国、消费强国、金融强国建设,驱动国民经济进入高质量发展的新循环体系。 【点击查看详情】 专访刘元春: 2026年继续强化创新驱动布局,消费有望实现逆转 未来,随着房地产市场的止跌回稳、随着"反内卷"工作的持续推进,中国多支柱支撑的新增长模式会全面发力。 【点击查看详情】 专访邢自强: 从投资于物到投资于人,持续撬动消费市场 中国经济的未来在于实现"星辰大海"式创新与"柴米油盐"民生改善的"双向奔赴"。 【点击查看详情】 独家专访诺奖得主托马斯·萨金特: 全球经济难测,中国发展显韧性 中国的五年规划不仅提供了思考与行动的框架,更在政策执行中体现了清晰的连续性。这种耐心与系统性决策,使得中国经济能够在全球不 确定性增加的背景下保持稳健和韧性。 【点击查看详情】 专访诺奖得主罗伯特·恩格尔: 在不确定性时代解构风险 事实上,互联网泡沫并非纯粹的投机泡沫,只不过有一些公司最终是失败了,但它实际上反映了科技 ...
抓住关键突破 实干开创新局
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-31 21:06
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of transforming macro strategies into concrete actions, focusing on key projects and reforms to drive economic growth in Qinghai [1][4] Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The provincial economic work conference has outlined eight key tasks, including "dual carbon" initiatives, expanding effective demand, and improving people's livelihoods, reflecting a comprehensive approach to development and safety [1] - The focus on ecological priorities aims to establish Qinghai as a national park demonstration province and a clean energy industry hub, contributing to the national energy strategy [1] Group 2: Investment and Consumption - Expanding effective demand is crucial for stabilizing economic growth, necessitating a synergy between investment and consumption while integrating into the national market [2] - The strategy includes enhancing international eco-tourism and developing year-round tourism through initiatives like the "Ice and Snow+" economy [2] Group 3: Industrial Development - Building a modern industrial system is fundamental, with a focus on creating a "China Solar Thermal Capital" and a "China Green Valley" through various energy and material innovation tracks [2] - The development of green electricity and aluminum, as well as the establishment of a national-level green computing base, are highlighted as key areas for industrial growth [2] Group 4: Reform and Opening Up - The article stresses the need for deeper reforms and higher levels of openness to stimulate economic vitality, including market-oriented reforms and optimizing the business environment [3] - The promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the establishment of logistics hubs are part of the strategy to enhance regional connectivity and trade [3] Group 5: Regional Coordination - Coordinated regional development is essential, with an emphasis on urban-rural integration and supporting core areas to lead growth while encouraging potential regions to seize opportunities [3] - The construction of urban clusters and new-type urbanization is aimed at improving public service equality [3] Group 6: Safety and Stability - The article highlights the importance of maintaining safety as a prerequisite for development, advocating for risk prevention and social stability measures [3] - Emphasis is placed on fostering national unity and creating a model province for community awareness [3] Group 7: Implementation and Progress - The article concludes with a call for focused efforts and practical actions to achieve significant progress in building a modernized Qinghai, aiming for high-quality development outcomes [4]
年度报告 | 于613篇推文,见动能之变
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-31 12:40
Group 1: Economic Trends and Developments - The year 2025 is characterized as "extraordinary" by the Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting significant economic transformations and developments [1] - China’s exports have shown resilience despite a complex external environment, with ASEAN, EU, and Belt and Road countries becoming key growth engines for foreign trade [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is nearing completion, with new development strategies focusing on expanding domestic demand, high-level openness, and innovation-driven growth [2] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence and Innovation - The term "Hangzhou Six Dragons" has emerged as a key phrase in the artificial intelligence sector, marking a significant development in AI applications across various industries [3][4] - The introduction of local regulations for the embodied intelligent robot industry in Hangzhou signifies a growing focus on AI, with predictions indicating that the AI industry will grow from 486.2 billion yuan in 2026 to 1 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.8% [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the establishment of international technology innovation centers in major regions, aiming to integrate innovation resources across broader areas [5] Group 3: Investment in Human Capital - The government has explicitly stated the importance of "investing in people," with initiatives such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education reflecting a shift towards prioritizing human development [6][7] - This focus on human capital is seen as a strategic adjustment to stimulate domestic demand and enhance economic growth, especially as the country transitions from a "demographic dividend" to a "talent dividend" [7] Group 4: Trade Connectivity and Foreign Trade - Trade is identified as a crucial mechanism for connecting domestic and international economic cycles, with traditional foreign trade provinces continuing to play a significant role [9] - The central government has initiated measures to enhance the integration of domestic and foreign trade, with a focus on diversifying markets and fostering new competitive advantages [10] Group 5: Infrastructure and Logistics - The revival of inland river shipping is highlighted as a strategic focus, with plans to increase the share of inland cargo transport in the overall transportation system by 2030 [11][12] - The development of inland shipping is seen as a means to lower logistics costs and enhance the efficiency of resource allocation across the country [12] Group 6: Economic Powerhouses - Economic powerhouses such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are expected to contribute significantly to national GDP, with the central government reiterating the importance of these provinces in driving economic growth [13][14] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for these provinces to lead development efforts, with specific targets set for GDP growth and modernization [14] Group 7: Hainan Free Trade Port - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is marked as a significant step in China's openness, with the port being the largest and most diverse in the world [15] - The operationalization of the free trade port is seen as a systemic experiment in opening up various sectors, including trade, finance, and talent [15][16]
燕梳研究院2026年新年献词 | 以初心铸底气 以创新赴新程
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-31 12:02
Core Insights - The insurance industry is transitioning from a focus on scale to prioritizing quality, emphasizing the importance of serving the real economy and navigating regulatory changes [2] - Regulatory measures have strengthened the industry's foundation, with dynamic adjustments to preset interest rates and a focus on risk protection, leading to a more resilient sector [2] - The industry has seen significant growth in profitability and innovation, with major insurance companies reporting a 33.5% increase in net profits and the emergence of new insurance products supporting green initiatives and pension plans [3][4] Regulatory Developments - The introduction of a dynamic interest rate adjustment mechanism and three rounds of scientific standardization have helped the industry return to its core risk protection focus, moving away from reliance on interest spreads [2] - The non-auto insurance sector has seen a shift towards compliance and efficiency, with 47.4% of the property insurance market moving away from high costs and low rates [2] - Regulatory innovations have activated new growth drivers, ensuring a safer and more vibrant industry environment [2] Market Performance - The top five listed insurance companies reported a 33.5% increase in net profits for the first three quarters, indicating a significant improvement in industry profitability [3] - Green insurance premiums have surpassed 300 billion, supporting the dual carbon goals, with new energy vehicle insurance and green building insurance leading the growth [3] - The number of personal pension insurance products has expanded to 463, with a doubling in the number of commercial pension accounts, enhancing the pension financial ecosystem [3] Innovation and Expansion - The commercial space insurance consortium has launched, with 20 institutions collaborating to support space exploration [4] - The introduction of smart driving insurance has broken traditional car insurance limitations, with a single policy offering coverage of 60 billion [4] - Technology insurance premiums have increased by 30% year-on-year, providing support for thousands of tech enterprises [4] Industry Outlook - The year 2026 is seen as a critical year for the insurance industry, focusing on deepening transformation and enhancing quality and efficiency [5] - Continued policy benefits and technological integration are expected to empower sectors like pension finance, green insurance, and technology insurance, with new opportunities in cross-border and smart driving insurance [5] - The industry aims to position itself as a stabilizer for livelihoods, a booster for development, and a safe harbor for risk prevention [5]
专访上海财经大学校长刘元春:2026年继续强化创新驱动布局,消费有望实现逆转
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-31 00:48
2025年前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%,尽管四季度经济面临下行压力,但是全年有望实现5%左右的增长目标。 刘元春。资料图 2026年增长目标建议定在5%左右 《21世纪》:2025年前三季度经济增长5.2%,预计四季度经济增速如何?如何看待2025年经济表现? 具体来看,尽管面临国际经贸斗争,2025年1~11月份我国货物出口同比增长6.2%,实现较高增长,出口表现韧性十足。1~11月份社会消费品 零售总额同比增长4%,服务零售额同比增长5.4%,消费仍在持续恢复,尤其是升级类服务消费增长较快。1~11月份,固定资产投资同比下降 2.6%,高技术产业投资维持较高增长。 中央经济工作会议指出,2026年要更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争,实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,持续扩大内需、优化供给,因地制 宜发展新质生产力,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,持续防范化解重点领域风险,着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,推动经济实现质的 有效提升和量的合理增长。 如何看待2025年经济表现?2026年应追求怎样的经济增速?如何展望2026年经济形势?如何更好地提振消费?如何继续实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策?要重点推进哪些结 ...
拿出“闯”的勇气“拼”的干劲 不断开创高质量发展新局面
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 20:11
转自:成都日报锦观 拿出"闯"的勇气"拼"的干劲 不断开创高质量发展新局面 12月30日,市委经济工作会议举行。会议总结2025年全市经济工作,分析当前经济形势,从扩大有效需求、深化科产融合、扩大开放合作、 推进协调发展、推进城市更新、优化发展环境、惠民生保安全七个方面部署2026年经济工作。 与会代表表示,2026年是"十五五"开局之年,做好经济工作意义重大,将抢抓机遇、乘势而进,全力以赴拼经济搞建设,努力打开经济增长新 空间、开创高质量发展新局面。 "十四五" 成绩来之不易 为明年良好开局打牢基础 走出会场,不少与会代表提及一组城市发展的"成绩单":今年前三季度,成都经济增长5.8%,分别高于全国、全省0.6和0.3个百分点。同时, 成都连续7年获评"最佳引才城市"、连续17年获评"最具幸福感城市"…… "这份成绩来之不易。"与会代表说,即将过去的2025年是城市发展历程中很不平凡的一年,面对严峻复杂形势和多重困难挑战,成都全力以赴 拼经济搞建设,把"拼搏""奋进"贯穿始终。 来之不易的成绩带来更强信心,也为下一步工作奠定坚实基础。 "2025年,市委深入贯彻党中央和省委各项决策部署,深入实施'立园满园' ...
中国经济圆桌会丨坚持创新驱动,加紧培育壮大新动能
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-12-30 12:09
Core Viewpoint - The director of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, Yang Zhiyong, emphasized the importance of adhering to innovation-driven strategies and accelerating the cultivation and expansion of new growth drivers [1] Group 1 - The focus on innovation is crucial for sustaining economic growth in China [1] - There is a need to foster and strengthen new economic drivers to adapt to changing market conditions [1]
中国旭阳集团(01907):创新赋能厚植成长韧性综合用力扩张发展空间
智通财经网· 2025-12-30 10:07
智通财经APP获悉,2025年,面临不确定的客观环境,中国旭阳集团(01907)以创新驱动、服务引领,在 业务拓展、技术提升、市场深耕及内部管理等方面协同发力,从焦化核心主业龙头地位稳固,到化工新 材料氨基醇投产落地,再到高纯氢销量再创历史新高以及持续扩大海外业务布局,冲破层层关隘,战胜 多重挑战,获得新的进步与成长。1995年创立至今,旭阳从河北走向全国,从国内走向海外,建立全国 布局,加速全球开拓,努力由焦化、化工向新能源、新材料领域拓展,已在全球布局了9大生产园区, 拥有8家国家高新技术企业、6个国家级绿色工厂、1个省级绿色工厂、2个市级绿色工厂、407项专利技 术、542项专有技术、405名博硕人才,稳扎稳打实现了高质量发展。 打造全球供销网络,构建全球竞争力 随着旭阳印尼伟山320万吨/年焦化项目于2023年7月投产,先后与东南亚、南美、印度、欧洲等国际大 型钢企建立长期战略合作关系,发挥了旭阳事业海外发展"桥头堡"的显著作用,并于2025年5月旭阳伟 山新能源(印尼)有限公司成功获得涵盖化学、农业、食品、医药和工业制造等多个领域商品类别 的"RISUN"商标证书,为旭阳在印尼市场的多元化业务发展和 ...
环球新材国际斩获ESG双项荣誉 投资价值与领袖影响力获认可
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-12-30 08:49
Core Viewpoint - Global New Materials International Holdings Limited has been recognized for its outstanding performance in globalization, sustainable development, and value creation, winning the "ESG Excellence Investment Value Listed Company Award" and its chairman receiving the "ESG Excellence Influence Business Leader Award" [1] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - The award ceremony for the 2025 Annual Listed Company Excellence ESG Value List was held in Hong Kong, co-hosted by the Global Business Alliance, Hong Kong Business Daily, and Hong Kong Economic Times [1] - The evaluation criteria for the ESG value list include six dimensions: strategic governance, environmental friendliness, social responsibility, value co-creation, innovation leadership, and sustainable development [1] - The dual awards received by Global New Materials International reflect the company's strength and high recognition in the capital market, highlighting its benchmark position in the sustainable development of the new materials industry [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Global New Materials International has maintained a high-quality growth trajectory, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.58% in revenue from 2017 to 2024, and gross margin increasing from approximately 44% to 53.34% by 2024 [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 912 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, while the non-net profit reached 260 million yuan, a significant increase of 54.4% year-on-year [2] - The company's financial performance is attributed to improved governance efficiency and a solid global supply chain, which creates a dual moat for raw material supply and product channel expansion [2] Group 3: Innovation and Product Development - The company is committed to driving industrial upgrades through innovation and aims to provide more sustainable high-performance material solutions [3] - Global New Materials International has established a brand matrix consisting of SUSONITY, CHESIR, and CQV, covering various applications such as cosmetics, automotive coatings, new energy, and high-end industrial manufacturing [3] Group 4: Global Strategy and Operational Efficiency - The ongoing effects of mergers and acquisitions are laying a solid foundation for the long-term development of ESG, with initial establishment of cross-regional collaboration mechanisms and global R&D team technical sharing [4] - The company is enhancing its global production network, with projects like the second phase of the Seven Color Pearl project gradually coming online and the Tonglu synthetic mica project entering the equipment installation phase [4] - A differentiated pricing strategy is being implemented across the three major business platforms, with adjustments ranging from 3% to 30%, optimizing product value and market demand [4] Group 5: Market Position and Future Outlook - The pearl pigment industry is characterized by high growth potential, low price sensitivity, and strong brand moat, making it a rare "strong consumer attribute" sector [5] - Global New Materials International has become an industry leader through strategic vision and cross-border mergers, entering the high-end market and unlocking growth potential [6] - The chairman emphasizes that mergers are not the end but the starting point for collaborative creation, aiming to integrate Asian speed with European precision in various fields [7] - The company aims to deepen ESG practices through technological innovation, capacity upgrades, and global layout, striving for breakthroughs in green materials, beauty technology, automotive coatings, and high-end industrial applications [7]