Group 1 - The State Council meeting emphasized the importance of boosting consumer spending and fostering new growth points in service consumption, highlighting the positive outcomes from the ongoing special actions to stimulate consumption [2] - The meeting called for the implementation of a long-term mechanism to promote consumption, including the development of a "14th Five-Year" plan for expanding consumption and urban and rural residents' income increase plans [2] - The meeting also addressed the need to clear overdue payments to enterprises and ensure the payment of wages to migrant workers [2] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting to reinforce market stability and prevent excessive speculation and market manipulation, aiming to maintain a steady market environment [3] - The CSRC plans to deepen public fund reforms and broaden channels for long-term capital, promoting rational and value-based investments [3] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China announced a policy adjustment for commercial property loans, setting the minimum down payment ratio at no less than 30% to support the real estate market [4] - This adjustment reflects the central government's increased focus on reducing inventory in commercial properties [4] Group 4 - Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is under investigation by the CSRC for misleading statements related to a significant contract with CATL, which involves supplying 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials worth over 120 billion yuan [5] - The contract is noted to be substantial within the lithium battery industry and may positively impact Ronbay's future performance [5] Group 5 - The tax authorities are reminding taxpayers to self-check their overseas income from the past three years, as they may face penalties for non-compliance [7] Group 6 - The U.S. President announced a tariff increase on goods from eight European countries, citing geopolitical tensions over Greenland, which may impact trade relations [8] Group 7 - The People's Bank of China will lower the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, effective January 19, 2026, to support economic growth [9] - The minimum margin requirement for securities financing will be raised from 80% to 100% starting January 19, 2026, affecting new financing agreements [9] Group 8 - Micron Technology's stock rose over 7%, and the commercial aerospace sector saw significant gains, indicating a positive market trend for these industries [10] - The overall market showed mixed results, with major indices experiencing slight declines [10] Group 9 - The CSRC approved IPO registrations for three companies, indicating ongoing market activity and interest in new public offerings [11] - A total of three new stocks are set to be issued in the upcoming week, reflecting continued capital market engagement [12] Group 10 - Over 440 billion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked this week, with significant amounts from companies like Xingtum Control and Shanxi Coking Coal [13][14]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is "Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report", with the date of January 18, 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes three main parts: market review, fundamental analysis, and outlook for the future [4] Group 3: Market Review - The section focuses on the price trend of nickel's futures main contract, with data from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [6][7] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore ports from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [10][11] - **Midstream**: Covers the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, and the monthly import volume of ferronickel and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [13][15][17] - **Downstream**: Includes the price, futures positions, inventory of stainless steel, the production of power and energy - storage batteries, and the production of new - energy vehicles from 2020/12/31 to 2025/12/31 [19][21][24][26][29] Group 5: Outlook for the Future - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed cut interest rates for the third time in December 2025, lowering the target range of the federal funds rate to 3.50% - 3.75%. The US GDP in Q3 2025 grew 4.3% year - on - year, higher than Q2 and market expectations. The People's Bank of China will introduce 8 policy measures, including cutting the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and reducing the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30% [34] - **Market Outlook**: Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising and then falling this week. Nickel inventory is at a high level in the same period. The 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia may be 250 million tons, much lower than 2025. The production of ferronickel in Indonesia in December remained high, with a large supply pressure. The social inventory of downstream stainless steel is decreasing faster, but the pressure of high inventory is still prominent. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will operate in the range of approximately 130,000 to 160,000 yuan/ton, and the main contract of stainless steel will operate in the range of approximately 13,500 to 15,500 yuan/ton [34]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is fully prepared to decide on further adjustments to interest rates, as stated by Vice Chairman Jefferson [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's readiness indicates a proactive approach to monetary policy adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair by Trump is complicated by the ongoing criminal investigation of current chair Powell, which may delay the process and impact interest rate decisions. Group 1: Powell's Position and Investigation - Trump hopes to name a new Fed chair soon, but this may be delayed due to Powell's criminal investigation [1] - Several Republican senators, including those on the banking committee, are skeptical about Powell's alleged crimes related to a $2.5 billion renovation project [2] - Sen. Thom Tillis stated he would not support any Fed nominees until Powell's legal issues are resolved, potentially delaying the nomination process [3] Group 2: Implications of Powell Remaining or Leaving - If Powell remains until May 15 without a new chair confirmed, he could continue in his role, affecting the speed of interest rate cuts [3] - If Powell leaves, Trump could nominate a fourth board member, potentially gaining a majority and enabling significant changes to the Fed [6][7] - A majority on the board could allow Trump to influence the removal of regional bank presidents who oppose his desired rate cuts [7][8] Group 3: Historical Context of Fed Chairs - Historically, most Fed chairs have left the board before their terms ended, but there are precedents for staying on, such as Arthur Burns and Marriner Eccles [9] - Eccles' tenure is noted for establishing the Fed's independence, which contrasts with the expectations of presidential influence [10][11] - The experiences of past chairs, like William McChesney Martin, illustrate the potential for a Fed chair to act independently of presidential wishes [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Bank expects the Bank of Japan to maintain its current policy and forward guidance without making significant adjustments in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 1 - Barclays Bank highlights that the Bank of Japan should continue to express its willingness to raise interest rates further, depending on improvements in economic activity and prices, given that real interest rates remain at very low levels [1] - The depreciation of the yen is also noted as a factor influencing the central bank's decision-making [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.07 basis points to 3.564% [1] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.94 basis points to 3.768% [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed by 4.53 basis points to 4.171% [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1566.00, down 2.61% [4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23530.02, up 0.25% [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49442.44, up 0.60% [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6944.47, up 0.26% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26923.62, down 0.28% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.60, down 0.33% [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a reduction in the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points starting January 19 [3] - The total social financing scale for the year 2025 is projected to reach 35.6 trillion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) will not discuss any interest rate adjustments in the short term as long as the economy remains on its current trajectory, but potential shocks, such as deviations from the Federal Reserve's mission, could complicate the outlook [1][2] Group 1 - ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane expressed confidence in the Federal Reserve's policies, stating that the inflation rate in the Eurozone is likely to remain around 2% according to December forecasts [1][2] - Lane warned that if U.S. inflation does not return to target levels or if financial conditions in the U.S. lead to increased term premiums, it could create economic difficulties for the Eurozone [1][2] - A reassessment of the future role of the U.S. dollar could also pose financial shocks to the Euro, indicating that deviations from the Federal Reserve's mission could lead to problems [1][2] Group 2 - Lane emphasized that current interest rate levels set a benchmark for the coming years, indicating no immediate discussions around rate hikes [1][2]

Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold has surpassed $4620 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.09%; New York futures gold has fallen below $4610 per ounce, with a daily decrease of 0.28% [1][5] - New York futures silver has fallen below $91 per ounce, with a daily decrease of 0.42%; spot silver has also fallen below $91 per ounce, with a daily decrease of 0.41% [2][6] Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. natural gas futures have dropped over 3.00%, currently at $3.026 per million British thermal units [3][7] - Venezuela's acting president Rodriguez stated that the country's oil production in December will reach 1.2 million barrels per day; U.S. Energy Secretary Wright believes that Venezuela's oil production will lower oil prices, and the current price of U.S. sales of Venezuelan oil is 30% higher than three weeks ago [3][7] Macroeconomic and Market Impact - Federal Reserve official Paulson indicated a preference to maintain interest rates at the next meeting, with a possibility of a mild rate cut later this year; Schmidt believes that a rate cut may exacerbate inflation and provide little help for employment [4][8] - In November, the U.S. saw a net capital inflow of $212 billion, compared to a net outflow of $225 billion in October (previously a net outflow of $373 billion); China held $683 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in November, a decrease of $6 billion from October [4][8] - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive appropriations bill to provide funding support for the Department of Commerce, Department of Justice, and other departments, which is now submitted for Trump's signature, with a voting result of 82 in favor and 15 against [4][8]

International News - The international precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with New York futures gold falling below $4610 per ounce, down 0.28% for the day [1][10] - Spot silver and New York futures silver both fell below $91 per ounce, with daily declines of 0.41% and 0.42% respectively [2][11] - Earlier, spot gold had briefly surpassed $4620 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.09% [3][12] - In geopolitical developments, the U.S. military is mobilizing land, sea, and air forces to the Middle East, with troop deployment expected to take one week [4][13] - U.S. Energy Secretary stated that Venezuela's oil production is expected to reach 1.2 million barrels per day in December, which will likely lower oil prices; current U.S. sales of Venezuelan oil are priced 30% higher than three weeks ago [4][13] - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive appropriations bill to fund the Departments of Commerce, Justice, Interior, and Energy, with a vote of 82 in favor and 15 against, now awaiting Trump's signature [4][13] - Following the White House's push to cut federal research spending, the Senate passed a bill to increase related expenditures [4][13] - There are differing views among Federal Reserve officials, with one favoring maintaining interest rates at the next meeting and possibly a mild rate cut later this year, while another believes that a rate cut could exacerbate inflation with limited benefits for employment [4][13] - In market data, U.S. net capital inflow for November was $212 billion, compared to a net outflow of $22.5 billion in October (previously a net outflow of $37.3 billion) [4][14] - U.S. stock markets closed higher on Wednesday, with the Dow up 0.61%, Nasdaq up 0.21%, and S&P 500 up 0.27%; TSMC shares rose over 4%, reaching a historical high, with a recent increase of 5.2% [4][14] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.60%, with several Chinese concept stocks like Zhongjin Medical, Canaan Technology, and Tencent Music experiencing significant declines [6][15] - U.S. natural gas futures dropped over 3.00%, currently at $3.026 per million British thermal units [7][16] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, announced plans to remain in his position for "at least" another five years [8][17] Domestic News - In November, China held $683 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, a decrease from $689 billion in October [9][18] - Rongbai Technology announced that its stock will continue to be suspended for one day on January 16, 2026, due to inquiries from the Shanghai Stock Exchange that require further verification [9][18] - In the aerospace sector, China's Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center successfully launched the Gushenxing-1 sea-launched remote sensing rocket, carrying the Tianqi constellation's 06 group of satellites into the designated orbit; this mission marks the 23rd flight of the Gushenxing-1 rocket [9][18]

Group 1: Company Announcements - Rongbai Technology announced that its stock will be suspended for one day on January 16, 2026, due to receiving an inquiry letter from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its daily operational contract with CATL, which requires further verification [1][7]. Group 2: Market Performance - On Wednesday, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.61%, Nasdaq up 0.21%, and S&P 500 up 0.27%. Notably, Nvidia rose over 2%, TSMC increased over 4%, while Google fell over 1% and Eli Lilly dropped over 4% [2][8]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 0.60%, with significant drops in stocks such as Zhongjin Medical down 11.39%, Canaan down 6.25%, and Tencent Music down 4.95% [2][8]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, China held $683 billion in US Treasury bonds, a decrease of $6 billion from October's $689 billion [3][10]. - The US saw a net capital inflow of $212 billion in November, a significant turnaround from a net outflow of $22.5 billion in October [3][11]. - Federal Reserve officials indicated a preference to maintain interest rates in the next meeting, with potential for a mild rate cut later in the year, although some expressed concerns that rate cuts could exacerbate inflation [3][11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - In international precious metals, New York gold futures fell below $1,610 per ounce, down 0.28%, while spot gold rose slightly to above $1,620 per ounce, up 0.09% [4][12]. - Both spot silver and New York silver futures fell below $91 per ounce, with declines of 0.41% and 0.42%, respectively [5][12]. - US natural gas futures dropped over 3%, currently priced at $3.026 per million British thermal units [6][12].