Australia's central bank has today left its cash rate steady as expected at 3.6%, saying it was cautious about easing further given higher inflation, firmer consumer demand and a revival in the housing market.Wrapping up a two-day policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia said recent data suggested inflationary pressures could remain in the economy, adding that it would update its view as data evolves.Markets had seen little chance of a rate cut this week following an uncomfortably hot reading on third- ...

澳洲联储在声明中表示，近期数据显示（包括更强劲的经济增长、顽固的通胀以及依然紧张的劳动力市 场）表明经济的潜在产能比此前预期更有限。这些指标呈现出金融环境的复杂图景，与政策目前接近中 性估值的判断一致。委员会的判断是，9月季度核心通胀率的上升部分归因于临时性因素。 新华财经北京11月4日电澳洲联储周二如预期维持现金利率在3.60%不变，该行今年已在2月、5月和8月 三次降息。澳洲联储预计，核心通胀将持续高于目标区间至2026年年中，原因是消费需求和房价增长速 度快于预期，限制了进一步降息的空间。 汇丰银行澳大利亚分部首席经济学家Paul Bloxham表示，澳大利亚第三季度的通胀数据出人意料地大幅 上升，从根本上改变了官方利率的前景。人们原本希望核心通胀率正朝着央行2%-3%目标区间的中点前 进，但事实却相反，核心通胀率正在上升。他补充称，通缩动能已完全停滞，澳洲联储没有进一步削减 现金利率的空间，下次利率调整很可能在2027年初迎来加息。 澳洲联储称，今天的利率决议是一致通过的。委员会一致认为保持谨慎是恰当的，并将根据数据变化更 新对前景的看法。澳洲联储预测现金利率到2025年底为3.6%，2026年6月为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy direction remains unclear, with differing forecasts among officials regarding interest rate cuts and economic risks [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed Governor Lisa Cook supports the recent rate cut but emphasizes that downside risks to employment outweigh inflation risks, while maintaining that the current restrictive policy is necessary due to inflation exceeding the 2% target [2]. - San Francisco President Mary Daly highlights the need to reduce inflation while supporting the job market, advocating for a modestly restrictive policy that does not harm employment [3]. - Chicago Fed President Austin Gulby indicates that the criteria for a rate cut in December are more stringent compared to October, reflecting a cautious approach among Fed officials [4].

In her first public comments since President Trump tried to fire her, Cook largely reinforced views outlined last week by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on October 29 suggest that a December interest rate cut is not guaranteed, impacting risk assets [1] Group 1 - Risk assets experienced pressure following Powell's remarks [1]

Core Insights - The recent economic narrative has been significantly influenced by the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut, which is further complicated by the ongoing government shutdown and the absence of new economic data [1] - There has been a third consecutive decline in consumer confidence, indicating a potential weakening in consumer sentiment [1] - U.S. home prices are experiencing a continued slowdown, reflecting broader trends in the housing market [1]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,013.70 per ounce on Tuesday, up 0.3% from Monday’s close of $4,000.30. The price of gold was down in early trading. A stronger dollar and an uncertain interest-rate outlook are factors in the decline. The U.S. Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) moved above 100 after dipping as low as 96.22 on Sept. 17. Year-to-date, the greenback is still down 7.7%. On the interest-rate front, CME FedWatch calculates a 71.1% probability the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-point in December. One we ...

Inflation in Switzerland fell unexpectedly in October, government data showed on Monday, although not enough to make the central bank consider interest rate cuts, analysts said. ...

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The People's Bank of China is advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi and researching foreign exchange futures, aiming to develop the Renminbi derivatives market and promote its trading with neighboring and Belt and Road countries [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut following September's meeting [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, indicating no urgent need for policy adjustments as inflation has reached its target [2] - The Bank of Japan has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with expectations of gradual inflation increases [2] - The Bank of Canada has also reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, continuing its trend of rate cuts [2] Market Observations - Nomura Securities has canceled its expectations for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, following the Fed's recent rate decision and Powell's press conference [4] - The market currently estimates a 72% probability of another rate cut by the end of the year, down from approximately 91% prior to the Fed's decision [5] - Analysts from Barclays and other institutions warn that traders may be underestimating the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England [5] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde has signaled that there will be no rate cuts in the coming months, reinforcing the rationale for maintaining current rates [6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing internal dissent regarding its decision to cut interest rates, with some officials arguing that it is too early to ease measures against inflation [2][5][6] - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining low inflation and high employment is creating conflicting pressures, complicating its decision-making process [3][5][6] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Decision - Three Federal Reserve officials expressed disagreement with the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point [2][6] - Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates steady but was outvoted [2][3] Inflation and Employment Dynamics - Inflation has been above the Fed's target of 2% for over four years, with tariffs exacerbating the situation, which would typically prompt rate hikes [4][6] - Conversely, trade wars initiated by President Trump have created uncertainty, hindering job growth and prompting the Fed to lower rates to support employment [4][6] Implications for Economic Policy - The divisions within the FOMC are making interest rate movements less predictable, as members disagree on which issue—inflation or employment—should take precedence [5][6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the "strongly differing views" among FOMC participants during the recent policy meeting [5]