21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 广州报道 "柬埔寨和中国之间的政治互信得到了进一步巩固和深化，这向世界表明，像柬埔寨这样的小国和像中 国这样的大国、经济强国可以携手合作，促进区域共同发展，共享繁荣。"4月18日，柬埔寨亚洲愿景研 究院院长成金珑在接受21世纪经济报道记者专访时表示，在美"对等关税"的挑战下，中国周边外交的意 义和重要性越发凸显。 美国"对等关税"重棒打击东南亚多国，东南亚国家正积极寻求对策缓解关税压力。与此同时，中国正与 东南亚国家积极开展全方位的合作。成金珑表示，从长远来看，美国政府这种不公平的保护性关税制 度，将重塑全球供应链格局，在许多区域可能会出现贸易转移。这还将导致国家之间的贸易网络结构发 生变化并远离美国。 在外部风险加剧的情况下，柬埔寨应该加强与中国之间的关系，东盟也要作为一个整体，加强与中国之 间的经贸、投资以及文化交流，以促进货物和服务贸易的自由流通，通过购买彼此的货物和服务，抵御 美国的"不公平关税"，以应对全球经济、贸易和投资供应链面临中断带来的风险和挑战。 因此，他认为，不仅是柬埔寨，东盟要作为一个整体来加强与中国之间的经贸和投资关系，促进货物和 服务贸易的自由流通，通过购 ...

Core Points - The meeting held on April 18 in Jinan emphasized the collaborative development of the Jinan and Qingdao urban agglomerations, focusing on infrastructure connectivity, modern industrial system construction, and high-level openness [1][5] - The integration of the Jinan and Qingdao urban circles is seen as a crucial strategy to enhance regional economic competitiveness, especially as Shandong approaches a GDP of 10 trillion yuan [2][4] - The two urban circles account for over 25% of Shandong's land area and more than 50% of its GDP, indicating their significant role in the province's development [4] Group 1 - The meeting proposed a framework for "inner circle," "dual circle," and "three-circle" development, aiming for coordinated growth among Jinan, Qingdao, and Zhengzhou urban areas [6] - The strategy includes establishing mechanisms for collaborative promotion, shared innovation resources, joint industrial systems, and interconnected infrastructure [5][6] - Experts suggest that this shift from individual to collective action will optimize resource allocation and enhance the efficient flow of factors within the Shandong Peninsula urban cluster [6] Group 2 - The Shandong provincial government has accelerated the dual-circle development layout, as highlighted in the 2025 government work report [5] - The emphasis on regional integration aligns with national trends of urban agglomeration and collaborative development seen in other major economic regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [2][3] - The successful collaboration between urban circles is expected to create a more influential cultural and tourism brand while promoting equal access to public services [1][4]

Core Insights - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" has positioned China's petrochemical industry for high-quality development, with petrochemical trade's share of total foreign trade rising from 13.6% in 2020 to 16% in 2023, despite a slight decline to 15.4% in 2024, indicating strong growth resilience [1][2] Trade Dynamics - From 2022 to 2024, RCEP has activated regional trade, with China's petrochemical imports from RCEP countries reaching $168.7 billion in 2022, a 5.7% increase, while exports surged by 30.7% to $124.1 billion, resulting in a total trade volume of $292.8 billion, a 15% growth [2] - In 2023, due to weak global demand and falling energy prices, imports decreased to $160.1 billion and exports to $113.7 billion, leading to a total trade volume of $273.8 billion. By 2024, exports further declined to $106.4 billion, while imports slightly rebounded, resulting in a total trade volume of $268.7 billion [3] Regional Trade Structure - RCEP's influence on China's petrochemical trade is evident, with trade volume within the region reaching $292.8 billion in 2022, accounting for 27.8% of China's total petrochemical foreign trade, and increasing to 28.3% in 2024 [4] - The trade contraction in the RCEP region was only 1.9%, significantly lower than the 6.1% decline in the Middle East and 4.3% in the EU, highlighting RCEP's role in regional economic stability [4] Challenges and Opportunities - The trade deficit in petrochemicals has been expanding, with a deficit of $55.9 billion in 2024, a 20.5% increase year-on-year, primarily due to high imports of energy resources and high-end chemicals, which constitute over 80% of total imports [5][6] - China's reliance on RCEP countries for high-end chemicals is notable, with imports reaching $23.95 billion in 2024, a 6.19% increase, while exports were only $1.139 billion, resulting in a significant deficit of $12.56 billion [6] Strategic Recommendations - To address these challenges, the industry should optimize energy layouts and export structures, enhance regional technological cooperation, and promote green transformation [7][8] - Long-term strategies include accelerating domestic substitution and establishing a carbon footprint accounting system for petrochemical products, while enhancing international certification standards to integrate domestic high-end materials into global supply chains [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes that regional integration is a key trend in optimizing urban spatial structures and is a driving force for regional economic development in China. It highlights the importance of accelerating regional integration as part of the new urbanization strategy [21][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Integration Enters a New Stage - The report notes that the collaborative development of large, medium, and small cities has made progress, but there is still a gap in achieving deep integration. The urban development is characterized by a dual challenge of rapid expansion of large cities and insufficient development momentum in small cities [22][31]. - The focus is on modern urban agglomeration construction as a critical breakthrough for advancing regional integration [23][29]. 2. Progress and Trends in Major Urban Agglomerations - **Infrastructure**: The report states that infrastructure integration is a primary task, with significant improvements in transportation, energy, and communication networks. The average road network density in cities reached 19.7 square meters per person in 2023 [46][47]. - **Industrial Development**: Urban agglomerations are experiencing a layer-based diffusion of industries, with a clear trend of industrial gradient transfer from central cities to surrounding areas. The report highlights the strong momentum for building modern industrial clusters [60][63]. - **Ecological Environment**: The report indicates that ecological governance has improved, with urban agglomerations achieving a 100% waste treatment rate and a 98.84% sewage treatment rate by 2023 [71][74]. - **Market Elements**: The integration of market elements is still in the exploratory stage, with a focus on optimizing the flow of capital, technology, and labor within urban agglomerations [83][89]. - **Public Services**: The report notes that while public service capabilities are improving, there are still structural mismatches that need to be addressed, particularly in education, healthcare, and elderly care services [38][45]. 3. Key Driving Paths and Opportunities - The report identifies that the next five years will likely see breakthroughs in regional integration, driven by major projects, mechanisms, and platforms [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of accelerating regional integration as a key component of China's new urbanization strategy, highlighting the need for collaborative development among large, medium, and small cities to achieve deeper integration [1][3]. Group 1: Regional Integration Progress - Regional integration in China has entered a new stage, with significant achievements in collaborative development among cities, yet still facing challenges in achieving deep integration [1][5]. - The focus is on modern urban agglomeration construction as a breakthrough point, emphasizing the transformation of large cities and the acceleration of small cities [5][9]. - The article outlines five dimensions for promoting integration: infrastructure, industrial development, ecological protection, market factors, and public services, driven by both "hard connectivity" and "soft connectivity" [1][13][14]. Group 2: Urban Agglomeration Development - Different urban agglomerations show varying progress in integration, with strong efforts in infrastructure and industrial collaboration, while market factors and public services lag behind [2][15]. - Infrastructure integration has made early progress, with transportation and livelihood systems improving, but there is still significant room for enhancement, particularly in new infrastructure [2][16]. - Industrial development is characterized by a layer-circular diffusion pattern, with a clear trend of industrial gradient transfer from core cities to surrounding areas [2][25]. Group 3: Ecological and Environmental Protection - Urban agglomerations are actively implementing green development concepts, achieving significant improvements in ecological governance, with waste treatment rates reaching 100% and sewage treatment rates at 98.84% [2][32]. - However, challenges remain, particularly in air quality, with many cities exceeding the WHO's PM2.5 guidelines [2][33]. - Collaborative environmental governance across administrative regions is becoming a primary focus, with initiatives in key areas like the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei [2][36]. Group 4: Market Factors and Public Services - The integration of market factors is still in its early exploratory stage, with barriers to the flow of resources and uneven distribution of public services across urban agglomerations [2][38][49]. - Public service integration is improving, with increased capacity in healthcare and education, but structural mismatches remain, particularly in densely populated areas [2][42][49]. - The article highlights the need for further focus on urgent public service demands, particularly in education, healthcare, and elderly care, to address existing gaps [2][50]. Group 5: Future Opportunities - The next five years are expected to see breakthroughs in regional integration, driven by major projects, mechanisms, and platforms [2][51]. - Major projects will continue to be a key focus, with significant investments in municipal infrastructure expected to exceed 8.1 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2023 [2][52]. - The establishment of smart governance systems and cross-regional collaboration mechanisms will be crucial for enhancing urban agglomeration integration [2][53].

Core Viewpoint - Africa is poised for significant growth opportunities driven by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to enhance regional integration and boost demand for consumer goods, industrial products, and infrastructure [4][6]. Economic Overview - Africa's GDP growth from 2018 to 2023 has been stagnant at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4%, matching global growth rates [5]. - The economic structure remains largely unchanged, with agriculture, industry, and services contributing 15%, 39%, and 46% to GDP respectively in 2023 [5]. - Africa's integration into the global value chain is low, with merchandise trade accounting for only 2.8% of global trade in 2022, down from 3.5% in 2012 [5]. Trade and Industry - AfCFTA has led to a CAGR of 11.8% in intra-African trade from 2021 to 2023, but intra-African trade still only accounts for 15% of total trade, significantly lower than Europe and Asia [6]. - The internal trade of Africa is characterized by a high proportion of intermediate and manufactured goods, which could foster industrial development and regional capacity integration [6]. - Africa's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in 2023 was only 4.0% of global FDI, indicating a need for improvement in attracting investment [20]. Resource Potential - Africa possesses vast mineral resources, holding approximately 8% of the world's oil reserves and over 90% of platinum group metals [7][41]. - The reliance on resource extraction can lead to economic vulnerabilities, as seen in countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has become overly dependent on mining [49][50]. - Botswana serves as a positive example, successfully utilizing diamond revenues to diversify its economy and improve social welfare [52]. Infrastructure Challenges - Africa faces significant infrastructure deficits, with an estimated investment gap of $1.7 trillion by 2040, representing 1.2% of cumulative GDP [8][59]. - Transportation costs in Africa are high, accounting for about 40% of final goods prices, due to inadequate road networks and high logistics costs [8][63]. - The energy infrastructure is also lacking, with nearly half of the population lacking access to electricity, despite Africa having 60% of the world's solar resources [8][60]. China-Africa Relations - China's direct investment in Africa reached approximately $4 billion in 2023, accounting for 2.2% of China's total outbound investment and 7.6% of Africa's FDI [9][10]. - China is Africa's largest trading partner, with trade volume expected to reach about $295.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a growing economic relationship [10][37]. - The trade pattern continues to be characterized by Africa exporting primary products in exchange for manufactured goods from China [39].