开年以来跨年行情愈演愈烈，资金踊跃进场，商业航天、AI应用等板块持续暴涨引发局部交易过热， 本周主动降温后热点出现调整，部分投资者担忧这会不会逆转跨年行情的格局。整体来看，本次主动降 温不影响跨年行情的整体格局，但是此前局部过热的情况可能会得到缓解，资金交易的方向或将出现一 些变化。从行业配置来看，AI算力、有色金属、创新药和汽车有较为明显的景气催化，前期市场热点 商业航天和AI应用可能阶段性调整，可以关注其他主题线索如特高压、脑机接口、可控核聚变等。 国盛证券：市场短期调整或已基本到位 上周五市场高开低走，三大指数集体收跌。沪深两市成交额3.03万亿，较上一个交易日放量1208亿。全 市场超2900只个股下跌。从板块来看，半导体产业链集体走强，长电科技涨停创5年多新高，存储芯片 概念午后持续拉升，佰维存储、江波龙均创历史新高。人形机器人概念走高，电网设备概念表现活跃。 下跌方面，油气、AI应用等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指跌0.26%，深成指跌0.18%，创业板指跌 0.2%。 在今日券商晨会上，中信建投认为，关注主动降温下跨年行情的变化；国盛证券认为，市场短期调整或 已基本到位；银河证券认为，内外扰动交织 ...

重点关注板块包括：半导体、AI、有色、汽车、人形机器人、核电、创新药、非银金融、商业航天、特高压等。 一、主动降温对跨年行情的影响 开年以来跨年行情愈演愈烈，资金踊跃进场，商业航天、AI应用等板块持续暴涨引发局部交易过热，上周主动降温后热点出现调整，部分投资者担忧这 会不会逆转跨年行情的格局。但是复盘以往案例，此举的目的是抑制疯牛可能产生的短期严重后果，长期大基调仍然较为积极，并且此次政策的实施更加 具有成熟度和前瞻性。整体来看，本次主动降温不影响跨年行情的整体格局，但是此前局部过热的情况可能会得到缓解，资金交易的方向或将出现一些变 化。 过往牛市中每次出现交易过热都会有降温政策，否则一旦市场形成疯牛后续容易引发更严重的后果。调控的节奏上，往往前期的调控只会引发市场短期下 跌，后续更多政策入场后累积影响越来越大才会引发市场大级别的调整，甚至逆转牛市格局。 中信建投证券发布研究报告称，开年以来A股跨年行情愈演愈烈，在上周主动降温后热点出现调整。复盘以往案例，此举的目的是抑制疯牛可能产生的短 期严重后果，长期大基调仍然较为积极，并且此次政策的实施更加具有成熟度和前瞻性。整体来看，本次主动降温不影响跨年行情的整体格 ...

热点情报 珂玛科技股价飙涨159% 1月16日，珂玛科技强势上涨3.05%，收盘价为139.07元，成交额为24.82亿元，总市值攀升至606.35亿 元。据统计，自2025年12月10日以来的26个交易日内，珂玛科技股价累计涨幅超过159%，表现非常不 公开资料显示，珂玛科技是先进陶瓷材料及零部件领域的领先企业，专注于半导体设备用先进陶瓷的研 发与制造。公司产品包括陶瓷加热器等高难度"功能-结构"一体模块化产品，多项关键技术指标达到国 内领先、国际主流水平。 内存条价格翻倍暴涨 2025年下半年以来，存储芯片价格涨幅惊人，内存、闪存的价格翻了1倍以上，"内存条"价格涨幅远 超"金条"。数据显示，2025年9月以来，DDR5内存条价格上涨超300%，DDR4内存条涨幅也超150%。 有业内人士表示，此轮内存条涨价源于AI引爆的存储需求浪潮。 中信建投证券电子首席分析师刘双锋认为，在数据中心需求爆发、存储芯片供应持续趋紧，价格大幅上 涨的背景下，美光交出一份明显强于预期的FY26Q1财报，并给出强劲的第二财季指引。预计存储芯片 供应短缺将在2026年持续并维持更久，美光为代表的存储IDM厂商将大为受益。 近一周 ...

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced slight declines last Friday, with the Dow Jones down 0.17%, Nasdaq down 0.06%, and S&P 500 down 0.06% [1] - Semiconductor stocks saw gains, with Micron Technology rising over 8%, reaching a market value of over $400 billion for the first time [1] Company Developments - AST SpaceMobile, a US satellite communication company, surged over 14%, reaching a historical high [2] - OpenAI plans to test targeted advertising in ChatGPT as part of its revenue growth strategy, responding to significant commercial pressures [5][15] - Neuralink's first trial subject revealed that brain-machine interface upgrades can be done without surgery, similar to Tesla's OTA updates [6] Regulatory and Policy Updates - US Commerce Secretary threatened that companies must either build storage chip capacity in the US or face a 100% tariff [4] - The Chinese government emphasizes a stable approach to the stock market, focusing on preventing large fluctuations and ensuring steady growth [10] Industry Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data center electricity consumption will grow from approximately 4,150 billion kWh in 2024 to about 9,450 billion kWh by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of around 15% [18] - The Chinese aviation engine group successfully passed evaluations for its heavy gas turbine innovation projects, marking a significant advancement in the gas turbine industry [16] Financial Performance Forecasts - Companies like Jianzhong Technology and Lishang Guochao expect significant profit increases in 2025, with projected net profits growing by 51.19% to 66.79% and 92.96% to 134.31%, respectively [23] - Chengqi Technology anticipates a net profit of 3.2 billion to 3.7 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 344.01% to 413.39% due to rising demand in cloud computing and AI [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Committee has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on six key areas for future development, including manufacturing, information technology, materials, energy, space, and health [1] Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The plan emphasizes the importance of advancing quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, controllable nuclear fusion, biomanufacturing, and sixth-generation mobile communication [1] - There is a call for agile layout and accelerated cultivation in these emerging fields to enhance competitiveness [1] Group 2: Development Zone Reforms - The recommendations propose deepening the reform of development zone management systems to clarify responsibilities and operational models [1] - It highlights the need for integration and efficient use of land in development zones and parks, aiming to create a more innovative and industrial ecosystem [1] - The plan encourages the transformation of development entities into integrated operators to foster specialized industrial clusters [1]

Group 1 - The core investment theme of public funds is shifting from traditional lithium batteries to advanced technologies such as smart driving, artificial intelligence (AI), and controllable nuclear fusion, indicating strong confidence in the structural market for the new energy sector in 2026 [1][6] - Recent performance data shows that leading new energy theme funds have focused on high-growth sectors like energy storage, lithium batteries, solid-state batteries, and new energy vehicles, with significant returns reported [2][3] - The first batch of new energy theme funds that disclosed their Q4 2025 reports achieved impressive performance, with returns significantly surpassing mainstream market indices [2][3] Group 2 - New energy theme funds are diversifying their portfolios by extending investments into emerging areas such as AI computing power and controllable nuclear fusion while maintaining high allocations in established sectors like power batteries and solar energy [3][6] - Fund managers are optimistic about the structural opportunities arising from the new energy industry, particularly in power equipment exports and energy storage, with some funds reporting excess returns exceeding 22% [4][6] - The investment strategies of fund managers reflect a focus on long-term fundamental trends, including the growth of large-scale energy storage, leading lithium battery companies, and the increasing demand for electric vehicles [6][7]

明日主题前瞻 1、半导体 | 全球光刻机龙头阿斯麦16日收盘上涨2.03%，股价再创历史新高，市值高达5263亿美元(约合人民币3.69万亿元)，成为历史上第三只市值突破 5000亿美元的欧洲股票。摩根士丹利半导体团队在最新研报中表示，在最乐观情形下，随着芯片制造商为满足激增的 AI需求而加大支出，阿斯麦股价有望 进一步上涨70%。 点评：中信证券认为，在AI浪潮和国产替代的双重驱动下，国产设备厂商的需求变得更加内生和持续，其成长性摆脱了全球半导体周期的束缚，呈现出穿 越周期的能力，为国产设备厂商带来长达5~10年的黄金发展期。中信证券建议重点关注在刻蚀，薄膜沉积，清洗， CMP等核心设备领域已实现技术突破， 获得头部客户验证，并具备平台化布局能力的龙头企业，以及在光刻，涂胶显影，量检测，测试等具备国产化率弹性的设备公司。 2、核聚变 | 2026核聚变能科技与产业大会16日在合肥举行，10个核聚变能重大采购项目和4个聚变联合实验室项目现场签约。根据2026年度聚变产业联合会 采购计划，2026年，围绕EAST升级，CRAFT,BEST等任务的计划采购项目超120项，总经费近百亿元。 点评：根据国泰海通研报统 ...

浙富控股称，作为鲜少的核反应堆堆内构件供应商，浙富核电熟知反应堆内部构件性能要求和质保要 求，对包层屏蔽块及后续增殖包层屏蔽块，前期试制的包层屏蔽块见证件通过了"中国科学院等离子体 物理研究所"的验收，为后续开展设备供货提供了基础。 另据了解，作为致力于推动聚变能源商业化的行业枢纽，安徽省聚变产业联盟自成立以来，已汇聚200 余家会员单位，形成覆盖聚变材料、技术研发、设备制造、科技推广等全链条的产业集群，通过深化产 学研用合作、搭建资源对接平台，加速推动我国聚变关键核心技术攻关与成果转化。 此次加入聚变产业联盟，是浙富核电深耕聚变能源赛道的重要战略举措。根据联盟章程，公司将积极参 加行业交流培训、对接产业资源等，与全体会员单位携手共建有韧性、有活力的聚变产业链。 浙富控股表示，依托联盟生态平台，浙富核电将进一步深化与产业链上下游的协同合作，聚焦聚变堆核 心装备国产化突破与产业化应用，为我国聚变能源从实验室走向工程实践、商业应用贡献核心力量。 近日，浙富控股（002266）子公司杭州浙富核电设备有限公司(下称"浙富核电")受邀参加2026核聚变能 科技与产业大会，公司凭借在包层屏蔽块、锂铅泵等可控聚变堆核心装备 ...

Major Developments - Four Seasons Pharmaceutical (00460) has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for a new specification of its "Youthful Needle" product [1] - Jixing New Energy (03395) has obtained regulatory approval for a 9.6 MW natural gas power generation project and board approval for a new 75,000 tons/year liquefied natural gas project [1] - Tiangong International (00826) has signed an agreement for a joint laboratory focused on the research and development of high-end fusion metal materials, aiming to explore downstream applications of controllable nuclear fusion [1] - Huashang Energy (00206) has announced a strategic plan for the next five years (2026-2030), aiming to become a leading green energy and equipment service provider in China [1] - Tianyu Semiconductor (02658) has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Qinghe Crystal to jointly develop bonding materials and technology iterations [1] - China Ruyi (00136) plans to invest approximately $14.2 million in AIsphere to explore innovative applications of artificial intelligence technology in film, streaming, and gaming content production and operations [1] Operating Performance - Shimao Group (00813) reported a cumulative contract sales total of approximately 23.953 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - China Shenhua (01088) expects coal sales volume to reach 431 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [1] - New China Life Insurance (01336) reported a cumulative original insurance premium income of 195.899 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - Ronshine China (03301) anticipates a total contract sales amount of approximately 3.777 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 50.96% [1] - Hu Shang Ayi (02589) has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit for 2025 to be between 495 million and 525 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% to 60% [1] - TCL Electronics (01070) has issued a profit warning, expecting adjusted net profit for 2025 to be between 2.33 billion and 2.57 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of approximately 45% to 60% [1]

产业链多点受益迎机遇，资本协同助力聚变产业化 可控核聚变行业的爆发式增长，正为全产业链上下游企业带来广阔发展空间，从核心材料到设备制造， 再到工程建设，一批具备技术壁垒与订单储备的企业已率先抢占赛道先机。 上游材料领域，西部超导（688122.SH）凭借高性能铌钛超导线材技术，成为ITER等国际重大项目的核 心供应商；安泰科技(000969.SZ)在聚变偏滤器等关键部件材料上形成技术优势，持续受益于装置建设 对高端材料的刚性需求。中游设备环节，上海电气(601727.SH)、东方电气(600875.SH)依托在能源装备 领域的深厚积淀，主导磁体系统、真空系统等核心设备的研发制造，订单规模随项目推进持续扩大；联 创光电(600363.SH)的高温超导磁体技术达到全球领先水平，成为装置性能提升的关键支撑。下游工程 端，中国核建(601611.SH)凭借丰富的核电工程经验，承担起CFETR等重大聚变装置的安装总包任务。 这些企业共同构成了推动行业产业化的核心力量。 资本层面的积极参与为产业链发展注入持续动力，中油资本(000617.SZ)通过旗下参股企业昆仑资本深 度布局该赛道，2024年直投29亿元支持聚变新能（ ...