NO.3中信证券：商业航天景气高企石墨纤维迎来机遇 12月30日，中信证券研报称，受益政策、技术和市场三维驱动，商业航天迎来景气高企。在太空算力需 求拉动下，火箭、卫星结构轻量化以及特殊应用环境对于碳纤维材料提出更高要求，石墨纤维凭借耐高 温、高强高模以及低热膨胀系数等优势，渗透率有望进一步提升。该机构预计伴随着下游需求放量，在 国产化驱动下，布局石墨纤维的相关企业有望充分受益。 NO.2开源证券：BEST订单持续释放，看好板块长期发展前景 12月30日，开源证券指出，可控核聚变装置研发建设稳步推进，BEST、星火一号、先觉聚能、环流四 号项目有望陆续开工，核心部件订单有望持续释放；TMTG并购TAE打造全球首家商业聚变上市公司， 有望提振FRC板块情绪；Helion曾官宣将于2025年内实现发电验证，若FRC技术路线工程可行性得到验 证，国内相关初创公司项目有望加速推进；"十五五"规划建议前瞻布局核聚变能领域；该机构看好板块 长期发展前景，建议关注磁体、主机和电源等核心部件。 ｜2025年12月30日星期二｜ NO.1中信证券：磷酸铁锂行业盈利有望迎来周期性的拐点 12月30日，中信证券研报表示，铁锂行业盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of the BEST research plan by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, aimed at developing controlled nuclear fusion technology, often referred to as the "artificial sun," which promises to provide nearly limitless clean energy and could potentially enable interstellar travel in the future [4][12]. Group 1: Advantages of Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Abundant Fuel: The primary fuels for controlled nuclear fusion, deuterium and tritium, are plentiful on Earth. One liter of seawater can yield deuterium that releases energy equivalent to burning 300 liters of gasoline during complete fusion [4]. - Clean and Environmentally Friendly: The byproducts of controlled nuclear fusion are helium and neutrons, which do not emit harmful gases and have minimal radioactive pollution, making it an environmentally friendly energy source [4]. - High Safety: The plasma of deuterium and tritium is contained within a vacuum chamber by magnetic fields, significantly reducing the risk of explosions or leakage incidents due to low density and low fuel content [5]. Group 2: Development of Fusion Energy in China - China has designed and constructed several controlled nuclear fusion devices, including EAST, BEST, and CRAFT, which are considered key national assets in the field of nuclear fusion [9]. - The BEST project is set to be completed by the end of 2027 and aims to demonstrate fusion energy generation, potentially leading to the first operational nuclear fusion power source [12]. - The advancements in fusion technology reflect China's strong capabilities in independent innovation within high-tech fields, showcasing the progress from conceptualization to realization of the "artificial sun" [14].

Group 1 - The international scientific program in the field of nuclear fusion was launched in Hefei, China, on November 24, with the signing of the "Hefei Fusion Declaration" by scientists from over 10 countries including France, the UK, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Austria, and Belgium [1][3] - The BEST (Burning Plasma Experimental System) project aims to further integrate international cooperation resources in the fusion field and promote collaborative research on frontier issues in fusion physics [3] - The successful installation of the heaviest component of the BEST system, the vacuum component known as the Dewar base, marks a significant milestone in China's domestic fusion research [3] Group 2 - Nuclear fusion, which simulates the fusion reactions of the sun to release energy, is regarded as humanity's "ultimate energy" [3] - The international fusion community has made significant breakthroughs over decades but still faces major challenges, necessitating closer and more open international collaboration [3] - The initiative includes establishing an open research fund, organizing international academic conferences, and building joint experimental platforms to facilitate cooperation [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the general equipment industry, marking its first rating change [2]. Core Insights - The nuclear power sector is at a turning point, with a sustained high level of activity expected due to continuous approvals exceeding expectations. The number of approved nuclear power units from 2021 to 2025 is projected to be 5, 10, 10, 11, and 10 respectively, totaling 46 units during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [6][18]. - The investment in nuclear power construction is expected to reach a historical high, with 146.9 billion yuan completed in 2024, an increase of 52 billion yuan from the previous year, reflecting a growth rate of 54.79% [6][25]. - The domestic nuclear power industry is shifting towards self-sufficiency, with significant progress in the localization of key equipment, particularly in the midstream sector, where core equipment is increasingly being replaced by domestic alternatives [6][44]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Nuclear Power Growth Potential - The nuclear power sector is entering a rapid development phase, with the government emphasizing the need for safe and orderly growth. The target for operational nuclear capacity is set to reach 70 million kW by 2025 [11][14]. - The long-term outlook suggests that by 2060, nuclear power capacity could reach 400 million kW, necessitating an average annual addition of approximately 9.4 million kW over the next 36 years [14][15]. Section 2: Sustained Nuclear Power Demand - The demand for nuclear power is expected to remain robust, driven by the need for stable and clean energy sources amid increasing reliance on renewable energy [11][12]. - The "Hualong One" technology has matured, and the domestic nuclear equipment manufacturing process is accelerating, with a significant portion of the supply chain now localized [32][44]. Section 3: Key Companies in the Sector - Jiangsu Shentong is highlighted as a key player focusing on nuclear valves, with a strong outlook for growth supported by recent capital increases [6][7]. - Other notable companies include Zhongke Technology, which specializes in nuclear fuel transportation containers, and Jingye Intelligent, which focuses on nuclear industrial robots, both benefiting from the domestic demand for nuclear fuel processing [6][7][8]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with established delivery capabilities in the nuclear sector, such as Jiangsu Shentong, Zhongke Technology, and Jingye Intelligent, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing domestic market [6][7][8].

Core Viewpoint - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and its subsidiaries are increasing their investment in Kunlun Capital to support controlled nuclear fusion projects, indicating a strategic shift towards emerging industries and energy transformation opportunities [1] Group 1: Investment and Financials - Kunlun Capital's three major shareholders will invest a total of 3.275 billion yuan (approximately 0.47 billion USD) in the company, with CNPC contributing 1.6705 billion yuan, China Petroleum contributing 949.5 million yuan, and China Oil Capital contributing 655 million yuan [1] - The investment aims to enhance Kunlun Capital's competitive advantage and potential profitability in the energy and chemical sectors [1] Group 2: Technological Developments - Controlled nuclear fusion is recognized as a long-term energy solution, offering abundant energy, zero emissions, and high safety, with 1 gram of deuterium-tritium fusion releasing energy equivalent to 11.2 tons of standard coal [2] - China has achieved international leadership in controlled nuclear fusion, with significant advancements in the "Chinese Circulation No. 3" device, which has set multiple operational records since its completion in December 2020 [2][5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Trends - The global nuclear fusion market is expected to reach 2.26 trillion yuan (approximately 0.33 trillion USD) by 2030-2035, driven by ongoing research and development efforts [7] - Investment in controlled nuclear fusion is increasing, with the U.S. private market alone raising over 12 billion USD since 2024, accounting for 62% of global funding [3][4] Group 4: Industry Structure - The nuclear fusion industry in China is characterized by a dual structure, with state-led initiatives and rapidly emerging commercial companies complementing each other [4][6] - Major state-owned enterprises like China National Nuclear Corporation and the Chinese Academy of Sciences are leading the charge, while private companies are innovating with smaller, modular fusion reactors [6][7]

Core Insights - The nuclear fusion research is transitioning from the "forever 50 years" phase to a "10-20 years" window, with increasing competition among the US, China, and Europe [2][29][34] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence is driving the demand for green energy, making nuclear fusion a critical area for future technological competition [2] - Significant investments are flowing into fusion technologies, particularly in the US and China, with a notable increase in private capital involvement [4][7][30] Investment Trends - In 2025, US startup Helion Energy completed a Series F funding round of $425 million, bringing its total funding to over $1 billion and a valuation exceeding $5.4 billion [4] - As of October 2024, US fusion companies attracted over $5.6 billion in equity financing, while Chinese fusion companies secured nearly $2.5 billion, significantly outpacing other countries [4][6] - The fusion investment landscape saw a peak in 2024, with total financing nearing $3 billion, marking a resurgence since 2021 [4] Technological Advancements - China has made significant progress in fusion research, with key advancements from institutions like the Chinese Academy of Sciences and China National Nuclear Corporation [3][8][13] - The EAST device achieved a milestone of maintaining a temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius for 1,000 seconds, simulating conditions necessary for future fusion reactors [13] - New breakthroughs in plasma current and temperature have been reported from various Chinese fusion projects, indicating a rapid advancement towards practical fusion energy [14][15][16] Competitive Landscape - The global fusion research landscape includes 166 facilities, with the US leading with 48 operational devices, followed by Japan and China [6][7] - Private capital is increasingly funding fusion projects, with 51 out of 166 facilities receiving private investments [7] - Notable startups like Helion Energy and TAE are pursuing innovative fusion technologies, including hydrogen-boron fusion, which presents unique challenges and potential advantages [12][23][29] Future Outlook - The timeline for achieving commercial fusion energy is projected to be within the next 10-20 years, driven by technological advancements and increased investment [29][30] - The competition in fusion technology is primarily between China and developed countries like the US and Europe, with each aiming to establish leadership in this critical energy sector [34]