Core Insights - AIA Group reported a 13% increase in new business value to USD 1.497 billion in Q1 2025, with annualized new premiums growing by 7% to USD 2.617 billion [1][2] - The new business value margin improved by 3.0 percentage points to 57.5%, and the service margin for new business contracts increased by 16% [1] - The shareholder capital ratio remains strong, exceeding 200%, indicating robust financial health [1] Group Performance - The CEO highlighted that the company is building on its strong performance in 2024, maintaining growth momentum in Q1 2025 with record new business value [2] - The "best agents" strategy is a key pillar for growth, contributing over 75% of the new business value in Q1 2025 [2] - Active agent numbers increased by 8%, supported by strong recruitment efforts and a focus on long-term customer relationships [2] Market Positioning - The company emphasizes a diversified and resilient product portfolio, driven by a leading digital platform that enhances agent productivity [2] - The experienced management team is committed to building a sustainable high-quality business, focusing on strategic priorities to navigate global market volatility [2] - AIA Group aims to leverage its competitive advantages to create long-term sustainable value for all stakeholders in the attractive Asian life and health insurance market [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) with a target price of HKD 60.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.6% from the current price of HKD 45.95 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights stable growth in operating profit attributable to the parent company, with new business value growth exceeding expectations. The operating profit after tax (OPAT) for Q1 2025 increased by 2.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by the life and health insurance segments [5]. - The new business value for Q1 2025 surged by 34.9% year-on-year, with significant contributions from various channels, particularly the bancassurance and community finance channels, which grew by 170.8% and 171.3% respectively [5]. - The comprehensive cost ratio for the property and casualty insurance segment improved significantly, with a year-on-year reduction of 3 percentage points to 96.6% [5]. - Investment income remained stable, with a year-to-date growth of 3.3% in investment assets and an annualized comprehensive investment return of 1.3% [5]. - The solvency ratio for the life insurance segment was robust at 163.7%, reflecting a 47.3 percentage point increase from the end of 2024 [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for China Ping An Insurance show a steady increase from RMB 913,789 million in 2023 to RMB 1,153,545 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.4% [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of RMB 120,657 million for 2025, down from RMB 126,607 million in 2024, but projected to rise to RMB 130,993 million by 2027 [4][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 6.63 in 2025, with a gradual increase to RMB 7.19 by 2027 [4][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 9.2 in 2023 to 6.0 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [4][11]. Business Segment Performance - The life and health insurance segment is expected to see a slight recovery in premium income growth, with a forecasted increase of 1.0% in 2025 [6]. - The property and casualty insurance segment is projected to maintain a growth rate of 6.5% in premium income for 2025 [6]. - The new business value rate is anticipated to stabilize around 25.6% for 2025, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [7]. Conclusion - The report maintains a positive outlook on China Ping An Insurance, emphasizing its strong market position, diversified business model, and potential for growth in new business value, supported by a solid financial foundation and attractive valuation metrics [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net operating profit of 37.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 27 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.4% year-on-year [2]. - The new business value (NBV) increased by 34.9% year-on-year to 12.9 billion yuan, driven by improvements in value rates [2]. - The combined ratio (COR) for property insurance improved to 96.6%, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a reduction in disasters and ongoing risk clearance in guarantee insurance [2]. - The investment portfolio of insurance funds reached over 5.92 trillion yuan, with non-annualized net and comprehensive investment returns of 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively, remaining stable year-on-year [2]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 7.6, 8.1, and 9.1 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 65.6 yuan based on a projected PEV of 0.8 times [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1,028,925 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 126,607 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.8% [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is forecasted to decrease from 7.8 in 2024 to 6.0 by 2027 [4]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 934.73 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 552.45 billion yuan [5].

在2024年取得史上最佳的盈利之后，上市险企今年一季度的经营业绩表现如何，市场倍加关注。 近日，中国人保（601319）发布业绩预喜公告称，承保业绩较快增长，投资业绩大幅提升。研究机构普 遍预计，头部财险公司承保业绩显著改善，不过寿险公司的经营业绩或有一定分化，新单保费增减不 一，权益投资收益将成利润的胜负手。 财险净利增长获双重驱动 中国人保在率先发布的业绩公告中称，预计集团一季度实现归母净利润为116.52亿~134.45亿元，同比 增长30%~50%。 根据公告，中国人保业绩增长主要得益于承保和投资两端。在保险端，该集团不断优化业务结构、提升 业务质量，承保业绩较快增长；在投资端，该集团落实中长期资金入市要求，不断优化行业配置结构， 进一步提升资产配置的稳定性、灵活性及前瞻性，投资业绩大幅提升。 中国人保财险子公司人保财险也在港股市场公告，预计一季度净利润将同比增加80%~100%。 人保财险解释称，公司优化费用投入，改善业务结构，推进风险减量服务，加之大灾损失同比减少，承 保利润同比增幅较大。同时，在保持流动性安全边际的基础上，公司适度增配具有长期价值的优质权益 类资产。受益于一季度资本市场整体回暖， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601319) [2][3] Core Views - The report anticipates significant improvement in the underwriting side of the property insurance business in Q1 2025, with positive growth in life insurance and investment performance, supporting both short-term earnings release and long-term growth momentum [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Property Insurance - It is expected that the underwriting profit will significantly increase in Q1 2025 due to fewer major disasters and ongoing cost reduction efforts by the company. The report highlights that in the first two months of 2025, natural disasters caused only 355,000 people to be affected with direct economic losses of approximately 9.33 billion, compared to 8.809 million affected and 20.69 billion in losses during the same period in 2024. The comprehensive cost ratio for China Pacific Insurance in Q1 2024 increased by 2.2 percentage points to 97.9% due to these disasters. The report predicts a notable decrease in major disaster losses in Q1 2025, benefiting the property insurance companies by reducing payout expenses [3] - The company has been optimizing its business structure and expanding its market share in personal non-vehicle insurance, which is expected to continue to yield positive results. The comprehensive cost ratio is projected to improve significantly in Q1 2025, with the company aiming for a combined cost ratio of 96% for auto insurance and 99% for non-auto insurance [3] - The average comprehensive cost ratio over the past three years has been 97.6%, indicating strong cost management capabilities and a leading position in underwriting profitability within the industry [3] Life Insurance - The report suggests that the improvement in value rates will be the main driver for new business value (NBV) growth, despite potential short-term pressure on new single premium growth. The company’s health insurance business is expected to maintain stable growth [3] Investment Performance - The report forecasts good performance in equity investments, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index showing slight declines of -1.2% and -0.5% respectively in Q1 2025, which is weaker than the same period in 2024. However, the structural market conditions favoring growth are expected to enhance the company's fund holdings returns. The Hang Seng Index's increase of 15.3% is also anticipated to positively impact investment returns [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains previous earnings forecasts, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 46.1 billion, 51.1 billion, and 57.4 billion respectively. The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.0x for 2025E. The report emphasizes the company's brand effect and cost control advantages, which are expected to continue optimizing the business structure and driving cost reductions [3][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - Despite natural disasters in the first and third quarters affecting underwriting performance, these short-term factors do not impact the company's solid fundamentals and profitability. The long-term concentration in the industry is expected to continue rising due to enhanced market competition regulation, leading to improvements in both asset and liability sides and upward valuation potential [2][12]. - The company achieved a net profit of 42.87 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 88.2%. The comprehensive cost ratio for property insurance was 98.5%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The new business value for life insurance grew by 114.2% year-on-year, while health insurance new business value increased by 143.6% [6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total investment income of 82.16 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 86.2% year-on-year, with a total investment return rate of 5.6%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The comprehensive cost ratio for auto insurance improved slightly to 96.8%, with original premium income of 297.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [12]. - Non-auto insurance premium growth slowed, with agricultural insurance premiums declining by 5.7% year-on-year due to selection rhythm impacts, and the cost ratio for non-auto insurance rising to 97.3%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Business Segments - The life insurance segment saw a significant increase in new business value, with a year-on-year growth of 114.2%. The first-year premium income for life and health insurance grew by 1.6% and 50.2% respectively [12]. - Adjustments in economic assumptions for the value system did not hinder the high growth in new business value, with the new business value rate for life and health insurance increasing by 3.5 and 9.8 percentage points year-on-year respectively [12]. Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about the future potential for asset and liability improvements, with expectations of continued upward valuation space in the context of increasing market concentration and regulatory enhancements [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in 2024 with total revenue of 1325.55 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 85.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 262.29 billion yuan, up 201.1% year-on-year [1]. - New business value (NBV) reached 62.53 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 106.8% [2]. - The company has prudently adjusted the investment return assumptions for non-linked insurance funds to 4.0% and the risk discount rate to 8.5%, resulting in an embedded value of 2584 billion yuan at the end of 2024, an increase of 3.17% from the beginning of the year [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company reported original premium income of 1705.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Long-term insurance new single premiums were 388.11 billion yuan, down 5.1% year-on-year, while long-term insurance new single regular premiums increased by 15.6% to 272.20 billion yuan [2]. - The new business value rate improved significantly from 6.7% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2024, an increase of 7.9 percentage points [2]. - The personal life insurance business showed a 13-month continuation rate of 95.7%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, and a 25-month continuation rate of 86.2%, up 7.8 percentage points [2]. Agent and Channel Performance - The number of individual insurance agents decreased slightly to 136,000, down by 19,000 year-on-year, but the average monthly performance of agents improved by 41% year-on-year to 0.81 million yuan [3]. - The bancassurance channel generated premium income of 516.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with first-year premiums for long-term insurance reaching a historical high of 138.73 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year [3]. Investment Performance - Total investment income surged by 251.6% year-on-year, with an overall investment return rate of 5.8%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, and a net investment return rate of 3.2%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The proportion of bond investments increased by 2.0 percentage points to 52.1%, while stock investments rose significantly by 70.2% to 1807.95 billion yuan, accounting for 18.8% of total investment assets, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 8.80 yuan, 11.47 yuan, and 11.72 yuan respectively, with a target price of 57.61 yuan based on a 0.65x P/EV for 2025 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Xinhua Insurance, with a significant increase in net profit and new business value, making it a recommended asset for investors seeking beta exposure [5][10]. - The company achieved a net profit of 26.23 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 201.1%, while new business value reached 6.25 billion yuan, up 106.8% year-on-year [5][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Xinhua Insurance reported a net profit of 26.23 billion yuan for 2024, a 201.1% increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The new business value for the company was 6.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 106.8% [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.53 yuan per share, which is a substantial increase of 197.6% year-on-year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 30.1% [10]. Business Quality and Growth - The company’s premium income reached 170.51 billion yuan, marking a 2.8% increase year-on-year, with a notable improvement in the structure of premium payments [10]. - The first-year premium for long-term insurance increased by 15.6% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in business quality [10]. Investment Strategy - Xinhua Insurance has increased its allocation to bonds and stocks, enhancing its investment flexibility, with total investment yield rising to 5.8% [10]. - The company’s asset allocation has shifted, with bond exposure increasing from 50.1% to 52.1% and stock exposure rising from 7.9% to 11.1% [10]. Market Position - The report emphasizes Xinhua Insurance's position as a pure life insurance company with the highest equity exposure, making it a leading choice for investors looking for quality beta assets [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The insurance industry is currently facing challenges on the asset side, but the company, as a pure life insurance provider, demonstrates strong sensitivity and elasticity, making it a recommended quality beta asset for allocation [2]. - The company's current stock price corresponds to a 2025 PEV of 0.70 times, which is at a historical low, leading to a continued recommendation for investment [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 106.94 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 108.9% [6]. - The value of new business grew by 24.3% year-on-year on a comparable basis [6]. Investment Returns - The company reported significant improvement in investment returns, with total and net investment yields of 5.5% and 3.47% respectively, showing notable improvement from the mid-year figures of 3.59% and 3.03% [11]. Embedded Value and Business Quality - The embedded value (EV) reached 1.4 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, which is relatively high within the industry [11]. - The company adjusted its economic assumptions for the value system cautiously, with the investment return rate lowered from 4.5% to 4.0% [11]. New Business Development - The new business value maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3% in 2024, despite a slight decline from 25.1% in the previous quarter [11]. - The first-year premium growth rate was 5.8%, with a notable 14.3% increase in new policies with a term of ten years or more [11]. Workforce and Marketing Strategy - The individual insurance workforce stood at 615,000 by the end of 2024, showing a slight decrease from previous quarters, but productivity per capita improved with a 15% year-on-year increase in new policy premiums [11]. - The company is implementing a "seed plan" to explore new marketing models, which has shown initial success in 24 cities [11].

2025 年 3 月 29 日 公司研究 投资提振业绩，NBV 同比高增 ——中国人保（601319.SH）、中国人民保险集团（1339.HK）2024 年年报点评 A 股：买入（维持） 当前价：6.83 元人民币 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com | 市场数据（A 股） | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 442.24 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 3020.50 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 5.03/8.18 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 18.1% | | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -0.3 | -8.5 | 27.3 | | 绝对 | -1.4 | -10.2 | 38.5 | 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：4.07 港 ...