IMF官员：贸易战对新兴市场的影响更甚于疫情期间 金十数据6月5日讯，国际货币基金组织（IMF）第一副总裁戈皮纳特警告称，特朗普发起的贸易战给新 兴市场政策制定者带来的挑战，甚至比五年前的新冠疫情危机更为严峻。她表示，在疫情初期，全球各 地的央行都在朝着同一方向行动，迅速放松货币政策。但这一次，冲击的影响各不相同。这次的挑战将 比疫情期间更加严峻。戈皮纳特还指出，新兴经济体的韧性也受到非银金融渠道依赖加深以及加密货币 作为一种资产类别日益重要的影响。她说，这还处于早期阶段，但我们已经看到一些新兴市场对加密资 产的接受速度非常快。特别是稳定币的发展，可能会导致金融中介功能被削弱，甚至引发货币替代的风 险，这对新兴市场来说是一个日益增长的威胁。 ...

Core Insights - The global economy in 2025 faces multiple challenges, including geopolitical conflicts, trade barriers, and supply chain fluctuations, yet the Chinese motorcycle industry has shown remarkable export growth due to its flexible supply chain and deep market penetration in emerging markets [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In Q1 2025, China's motorcycle export value experienced double-digit growth, with 31% of companies reporting export increases exceeding 30% [2] - South America (77%) and Africa (69%) emerged as the primary export destinations, with a significant number of companies reporting growth in these regions [2] - In contrast, the U.S. market remains sluggish, with 46% of companies experiencing a decline or stagnation in exports, and over half expecting further contraction in the first half of the year [2] Group 2: Challenges and Pressures - Despite strong export performance, the industry faces challenges, with 62% of companies reporting critical component shortages and high international logistics costs [3] - 38% of companies are hindered by international trade barriers and chaotic industry competition, with 54% indicating they may abandon the U.S. market due to tariff costs [3] - The trend towards focusing on alternative markets like the EU and Latin America is evident, with 62% of clients at trade fairs coming from these regions [3] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - To address challenges, companies are enhancing supply chain resilience and exploring local alternatives for components [3] - There is a push for government support, with 62% of companies seeking export credit insurance and 54% desiring tax reductions [3] - Companies are increasingly participating in emerging market trade fairs, with 38% focusing on Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite conservative expectations for the U.S. and EU markets, 62% of companies anticipate growth in Africa and South America [4] - Most companies expect continued export growth in the second half of the year, although the rate of increase may slow [4] - The Chinese motorcycle industry is poised to navigate the complexities of the international environment by deepening its focus on emerging markets and enhancing technological innovation and brand development [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The EdTech sector has experienced a significant decline in investment, with a year-on-year drop of 35% this quarter, indicating a cooling market overall [1][2] - Despite the overall decrease, investor interest remains strong in specific areas such as AI-driven solutions, international student mobility, and scalable models in emerging markets [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends - The average investment amount has increased to $7.8 million, as investors concentrate funds on fewer, stronger projects, with three companies receiving nearly half of the total funding [2][5] - The trend of "fewer deals but larger investments" suggests a shift towards quality over quantity in the EdTech investment landscape, indicating a more mature and consolidated market [5][6] Group 3: Regional Insights - North America leads in EdTech VC funding, followed by Europe and Central Asia, while regions like the Middle East and Latin America receive comparatively less investment [10][11] - China and the U.S. remain the largest investment regions, with cumulative investments of $29.7 billion and $28.2 billion respectively from 2010 to Q1 2025 [4][5] Group 4: M&A Activity - M&A activity in the EdTech sector has decreased by 32% year-on-year, reflecting the tightening investment environment, yet workforce learning institutions remain active, accounting for nearly one-third of all transactions [12][13] - Notable acquisitions include TLG Learning and Clover Learning, highlighting the ongoing demand for employee skill enhancement and retraining [12][13] Group 5: Focus Areas - Key focus areas for investment and M&A include scalable technology-driven solutions, AI infrastructure for educational institutions, and innovations in STEM education content [12][13]

Core Insights - Emerging market equity funds have outperformed global markets this year, driven by low valuations, years of underweight positioning, and easing economic pressures [1] - Latin America and emerging Europe equity funds have seen a year-to-date increase of 24%, while broad emerging market equity funds rose by 9.3% [1] - Single-country equity funds in Morocco, Colombia, Greece, Brazil, and Portugal have all exceeded 30% returns, contrasting with a mere 0.17% increase in U.S. equity funds and a 6.8% rise in global equity funds [1] Fund Flows and Valuation - In the first five months of this year, emerging market equity funds experienced a net inflow of $10.6 billion, a 43% year-on-year increase [1] - U.S. investors currently allocate only 3%-5% to emerging markets, significantly lower than the MSCI global index weight of 10.5% and the actual global market capitalization of approximately 25% for emerging markets [1] Fundamental Improvements - Analysts highlight improvements in fundamentals, with Latin American countries less affected by U.S. trade deficits due to tariffs, and Asian economies shifting towards domestic demand [2] - JPMorgan upgraded its rating on emerging market equities from "neutral" to "overweight," anticipating that all developing economy central banks, except Brazil, will enter a monetary easing cycle, boosting economic vitality and market attractiveness [2] Sector-Specific Insights - The rebound in tech stocks has revitalized the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets, with foreign investors returning to favor AI and low-cost tech companies [2] - The consumer theme in China is currently seen as highly attractive, with good prospects, while Indian markets may be overbought, though opportunities remain in power companies and non-bank financial institutions [2] Valuation Comparisons - As of the end of last month, the forward P/E ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was 11.96, slightly below the ten-year average of 12.1; in contrast, the MSCI U.S. and global indices stood at 20.5 and 18.1, respectively, significantly above their historical averages [2]

美国银行：新兴市场债券连续第五周实现资金流入，创2023年1月以来最大周度资金流入。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of global asset allocation, particularly highlighting the potential of emerging markets as a counterbalance to the high valuations and risks associated with major tech stocks in developed markets [1][3]. - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its rating on emerging market stocks to "overweight," indicating a bullish stance and suggesting that these markets could provide significant investment opportunities, especially as they have underperformed developed markets by 40% over the past four years [1][2]. - Emerging market stocks have shown a notable recovery this year, with Indonesia's index rising by 10% and India's SENSEX30 increasing by 7%, outperforming the A500 index [1][2]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the forward P/E ratio for emerging market stocks is 12.4 times, significantly lower than the 19.1 times for developed markets, suggesting a potential for capital inflow as global investors currently have low exposure to these markets [1][2]. - The article points out that trade volumes within emerging markets have reached historical highs, with China exporting more to Southeast Asia than to the U.S., indicating a shift in trade dynamics [5]. - Specific opportunities are identified in markets like India, which has a large untapped mobile data user base, and Indonesia, where the digital economy is poised for significant growth due to its geographical characteristics [5].

Core Insights - The foreign trade performance of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces in the first four months of this year has outperformed the national average, indicating strong growth in exports and imports driven by emerging markets [3][5]. Group 1: Trade Performance - Jiangsu Province's total import and export value reached 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, accounting for 13.1% of China's total trade during the same period [5][6]. - Zhejiang Province's foreign trade import and export value was 1.75 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, actively exploring emerging markets [5][6]. - Anhui Province's trade with the EU reached 38.39 billion yuan, growing by 17.4%, while trade with ASEAN increased by 31.3% to 37.92 billion yuan [6]. Group 2: Emerging Markets - Zhejiang's exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and the Middle East were 180.28 billion yuan, 145.06 billion yuan, and 123.01 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 21.5%, and 10.4% [5][6]. - The development of new markets has provided significant support for foreign trade growth in the Yangtze River Delta region [3][5]. Group 3: Export Trends - The first quarter saw Suzhou Port's Taicang Port area export 147,600 vehicles, marking an 18.35% increase year-on-year, with the largest single export batch of BYD electric vehicles heading to Brazil [5][6]. - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs in April, many companies shifted focus from the U.S. market to other countries, indicating a strategic pivot in export strategies [5][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent tariff adjustments have led to a surge in shipping demand, with container bookings from China to the U.S. increasing by 277% within a week [7]. - Experts suggest that the integration of domestic and foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta has significant potential for growth, emphasizing the need for enhanced cooperation with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [7].

华尔街新兴市场的投资者在多年错失美国股市飙升后，终于看到了机会。摩根士丹利投资管理公司、 AQR Capital Management、美国银行和富兰克林邓普顿等公司都押注，形势最终可能会转向有利于发展 中市场股票。 美国银行的Michael Hartnett将其称为"下一个牛市"。AQR预测，未来5到10年，这些股市以本币计算的 年回报率将接近6%，超过以美元计算的美国股市4%的涨幅。 尽管标普500指数近几周出现反弹，但截至上周五收盘，该指数年内持平，而新兴市场指数则上涨了 10%。这一涨势点燃了人们的希望：新兴市场过去15年的黯淡表现可能会结束。在这15年里，美国基准 股指飙升了400%以上，而发展中国家股市只上涨了7%。 富兰克林邓普顿投资策略师Christy Tan表示："美元的贬值风险给投资者敲响了警钟。"她将发展中国家 债券视为美国国债的替代品。"我们认为，美国例外论暂时结束了。" 过去14年，标普500指数的涨幅几乎是新兴市场指数的10倍 摩根士丹利投资管理公司副首席投资官Jitania Kandhari表示："现在我们终于有了催化剂。"两年前，她 从美国转向新兴市场股票，宣布新兴市场时代已经 ...

Group 1 - Southeast Asian countries have experienced four consecutive weeks of gains, with India leading the way [1] - The Indian stock market, represented by the SENSEX, has shown strong mid-term trends, defying initial expectations of a downturn [1] - The Emerging Asia ETF (SH520580) has seen significant trading activity, with a trading volume of 700 million and a turnover rate of 142% [3] Group 2 - The Emerging Asia ETF has a weight distribution of 53% in India, 19% in Indonesia, 15% in Malaysia, and 13% in Thailand, benefiting from low correlation with A-shares and U.S. stocks [4] - Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on emerging market currencies from "underweight" to "neutral," indicating a potential shift in the dollar cycle and optimistic investor sentiment [5] - The ETF has recorded an 18% cumulative increase since April 8, with recent financing purchases of 0.08 billion, 0.06 billion, and 0.15 billion [7] Group 3 - The Emerging Asia ETF (520580) includes 50 leading companies from emerging markets, focusing on sectors such as finance, energy, technology, and consumer goods, with nearly half of its exposure in the Indian market [6] - The ETF's characteristics of "high growth and low correlation" may provide alpha opportunities in the context of a changing dollar cycle and enhanced regional economic resilience [7]

最新数据显示，1至4月，浙江外贸进出口1.75万亿元，同比增长6.6%。其中，出口1.31万亿元，增长 9.7%；进口4362.5亿元，下降1.6%。进出口、出口和进口增速分别高出全国4.2个、2.2个和2.6个百分 点；占全国份额分别为12.4%、15.6%和7.6%，较2024年同期提升0.5个、0.3个和0.2个百分点。 在业内人士看来，在国际贸易承压的情况下，浙江外贸展现韧性，民营企业功不可没。数据显示，1至4 月，浙江民营企业进出口1.42万亿元，增长7.8%，占全省进出口总值的81.1%。其中，出口1.12万亿 元，增长9.5%，占比85.4%。 位于绍兴市柯桥区钱清纺织服装产业集聚区的浙江金蝉布艺股份有限公司，已在部分国家注册商标，并 拥有多项自主知识产权的产品设计专利。"2024年，公司跨境销售额达8000万美元，同比增长25%。"金 蝉布艺总经理杨卫干劲十足，"今年我们要开拓更广阔的发展空间"。 新兴市场已成为浙江出口不容忽视的增长引擎。数据显示，1至4月，浙江对欧盟、东盟、拉美等主要市 场分别进出口2627.8亿元、2594.8亿元和1814.7亿元，增长10.3%、10.9%和4.8%。 ...