大金融配置机会展望 20250616 摘要 房地产市场数据走弱，房价低于去年 9 月水平，止跌回稳政策面临压力， 政策边际宽松必要性提高，国常会或将更大力度推动市场稳定。 短期内房地产政策放松力度预计有限，宏观层面压力不显著，5 月销售 面积同比小幅下降，新房备案基本持平，7 月或有宽松措施，但预期不 宜过高。 地产股跌至较低位置，可逢低配置，关注库存压力低、减值充分、区域 布局好且产品端有优势的公司，如滨江、建发和绿城，以及稳定现金流 或潜在高股息标的，如华润置地。 商业地产公司如华润置地 PB 为 0.6 倍左右，本质是高股息逻辑，开发 业务拖累小，周转效率高，值得战略性配置。物业公司如贝壳及龙头央 国企物管公司受益于二手市场成交量稳定，具长线配置价值。 市场对公司自由现金流和账面现金估值不足，未来资产交易扩散将受重 视。政策有必要进一步宽松以维持市场稳定，但短期政策宽松的紧迫性 和力度保持中性判断。 Q&A 如何看待当前房地产市场的基本面情况及政策边际宽松的必要性？ 当前房地产市场的基本面情况显示出明显的恶化迹象。统计数据显示，房价环 比跌幅在显著扩大，尤其是从 4 月份开始，预计 6 月份单月跌幅可能 ...

今日早盘，受中东风险持续升温影响，A股主要股指全线下跌，在市场震荡调整之际，基本面相对稳健 且拥有良好防御属性的红利类资产关注度持续提升。同时，叠加当前恒生AH股溢价已来到2021年以来 的相对低位水平，A股红利类资产有望逐渐从阶段性防御资产转变为避险资金长期配置的底仓选项。 （数据来源：Wind，数据区间2021/1/1-2025/6/12） 其中，市场首只红利低波主题ETF——红利低波ETF（512890）6月以来获市场资金密集加仓。Wind数 据显示，6月1日至6月12日，红利低波ETF（512890）资金净流入显著放量，8个交易日累计吸引7.05亿 元资金净申购，已超5月全月4.16亿元的净流入额，同时也是全市场仅有的同期净流入超7亿元的红利主 题ETF。 资金涌入之下，红利低波ETF（512890）从5月19日以来已连续四周（2025/5/19-2025/6/12）实现基金份 额与规模的周度净增长，截至6月12日，最新基金规模达179.53亿元，再度刷新2018年12月18日成立以 来新高。（数据来源：交易所） 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石 ...

Core Insights - The insurance capital market has accelerated its investment pace this year due to policy support, with a target fund size of 20 billion yuan launched by a leading insurance company [1] - The total scale of long-term investment pilot programs is set to increase to 222 billion yuan following the approval of an additional 60 billion yuan [1] - The demand for dividend assets with stable yields and low volatility has surged, leading to significant inflows into related ETFs [1] Fund Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has seen a net inflow of 934 million yuan over seven consecutive trading days, reaching new highs in both share and fund size [1] - As of June 6, the ETF's total shares and size reached 15.227 billion shares and 17.778 billion yuan, respectively, marking record highs since its inception in December 2018 [1][2] Index Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility Index reached a new high on June 4, with an annualized return of 13.82% and a volatility of only 25% [2] - The index's dividend yield over the past year is 6.33%, surpassing 90.7% of the time over the last decade, making it an attractive option for long-term investors in a declining interest rate environment [2] Investor Interest - The connected funds of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF have gained popularity among retail investors, with a total of 829,800 account holders as of the end of 2024 [2] - The Y share class of the connected fund has become the first index fund eligible for personal pension investments, achieving a scale of over 100 million yuan by March 31, 2025 [2] Management Expertise - The ETF is managed by Huatai-PB Fund, which has over 18 years of experience in dividend index investment and has developed a diverse range of dividend-themed ETFs [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **China-U.S. relations** and its impact on various **industries**, particularly the **automotive** and **technology sectors**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Reduction and Market Impact** The U.S. has reduced some tariffs on China from 100% to approximately 50%, easing market tensions and laying the groundwork for future negotiations [2][1][4] 2. **Structural Issues Remain** Despite tariff reductions, structural issues such as fentanyl, TikTok, and trade surpluses were not addressed, indicating significant ongoing disagreements [3][1] 3. **Potential Threat to U.S. Automotive Industry** China's restrictions on rare earth elements pose a potential threat to the U.S. automotive industry, which could lead to production halts, pressuring the Trump administration to negotiate compromises [5][1] 4. **Negotiation Styles** Trump prefers top-down negotiations, seeking quick agreements with leaders, while China favors gradual discussions through lower-level officials. This difference may affect the pace and nature of future negotiations [6][1] 5. **Symbolic Outcomes of the Call** The call resulted in some positive signals, such as a willingness to welcome Chinese students to the U.S., but overall, it was more symbolic, creating conditions for further talks [7][1] 6. **Short-term Relationship Outlook** The announcement of Trump's potential visit to China suggests a lower probability of immediate escalation in tensions, although the complexity of high-level visits remains a concern [8][1] 7. **Beneficial Sectors from Improved Relations** The Hang Seng Technology sector and domestic rare earth sectors are likely to benefit from improved China-U.S. relations. If rare earth export policies are relaxed, it could enhance the performance of related companies [9][1] 8. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** Investors are advised to be cautious and avoid chasing high valuations, as the overall trend in China-U.S. relations remains upward. Diversification across sectors is recommended to mitigate risks [10][4][12] 9. **Market Dynamics** The current market environment is characterized by rapid rotation among sectors rather than sustained trends, with a focus on high-performing sectors like real estate, AI, and new consumer trends [11][1][14] 10. **Focus Areas for Investors** Key areas of interest include dividend assets, AI-related sectors, resource-related industries, and new consumer markets. Investors should be mindful of risks associated with high valuations in these areas [14][1][15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment and Risk Management** Investors should manage risks by avoiding concentrated bets on single sectors, especially in a volatile market environment where retail investor sentiment may not be favorable [12][1][13] 2. **Long-term Trends for Dividend Assets** Despite recent adjustments, the long-term outlook for dividend assets remains positive, and investors should not overly worry about short-term fluctuations [16][1][18] 3. **Investment Strategy Adjustments** A focus on safety and technology assets is recommended, with strategies emphasizing high selling and low buying to capitalize on market fluctuations [18][1][17]

Core Insights - The shift in market style has led to increased attention on dividend assets, particularly the low volatility dividend ETF, which has attracted significant capital inflow recently [1][2] - The first billion-level low volatility dividend ETF, the Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890), has seen continuous net inflows for six trading days since May 28, with a peak single-day net inflow of 598 million yuan on June 5, marking a year-to-date high [1] - As of June 5, the fund's shares and scale have reached historical highs, with 15.213 billion shares and 17.722 billion yuan, and a year-to-date share growth of 2.951 billion, making it the only dividend-themed ETF in the market with such growth [1][2] Fund Performance - The Dividend Low Volatility Index has a one-year dividend yield of 6.32%, outperforming 90.2% of the past decade, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 7.81, providing a competitive edge over other mainstream dividend indices in A-shares [2] - The associated funds of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF have also gained popularity among off-exchange investors, with the total number of holders reaching 829,800 by the end of 2024, making it the only dividend-themed index fund with over 800,000 holders during that period [2] Management Expertise - Huatai-PB, one of the first ETF managers in China, has over 18 years of experience in dividend index investment, having developed a diverse range of five "dividend family" strategies, including the first dividend-themed ETF and the first QDII mode high-dividend ETF [2]

Group 1 - The overall market is continuing its recovery process due to the easing of external disturbances and the introduction of favorable domestic policies, although investor sentiment remains cautious, leading to increased inflows into high-certainty dividend assets [1] - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) has seen continuous weekly net growth in fund size and shares since May 19, reaching a historical high of 17.26 billion yuan as of June 4 [1][2] - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) attracted 0.823 billion yuan in inflows over the two weeks from May 21 to June 4, making it the only dividend-themed ETF to exceed 0.8 billion yuan in inflows during that period [1] Group 2 - As deposit rates approach zero and long-term government bond yields decline, the gap between the dividend yield of dividend assets and their yield is widening, with the one-year dividend yield of the Dividend Low Volatility Index nearing 6.3% as of June 4 [2] - The linked funds of the Dividend Low Volatility ETF, including A class (007466), C class (007467), I class (022678), and Y class (022951), are popular among retail investors, with the Y share being the first index fund to exceed 0.1 billion yuan in size as of March 31, 2025 [2] - Huatai-PineBridge, one of the first ETF managers in China, has over 18 years of experience in dividend index investment, managing a total of over 40 billion yuan in dividend-themed ETFs as of June 4 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the search for investment direction amid market volatility and performance uncertainty as June begins [2] - Calendar effects are highlighted as a strategy for identifying opportunities in June, with reports indicating that technology growth sectors tend to outperform during this period [2][6] - Reports from Northeast Securities show that growth stocks have historically outperformed value stocks, with TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sectors leading in both win rates and returns over the past 20 years [2][6] Group 2 - Some reports focus on "cost-effectiveness" to find opportunities, with East Wu Securities noting that the technology growth sector has become more attractive after adjustments in May [3] - The trading structure as of May 29 indicates that TMT's trading volume has decreased to 27.3%, suggesting a rebound in the cost-effectiveness of the technology growth sector [3] - Huatai Securities recommends dividend-paying assets, citing strong signals from high dividend trends and the current market's risk-averse sentiment [4] Group 3 - Reports also address potential risks, with Tianfeng Securities warning about the high concentration of small-cap stocks, which could lead to increased volatility and risk in the market [6] - The report from China Merchants Securities highlights the challenges facing small-cap stocks as the market approaches the half-year reporting period, suggesting a shift towards larger, quality stocks [6] - The overall market sentiment indicates a lack of clear direction, with various strategies suggesting different approaches to investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The article notes that industry rotation is a common occurrence in May and June, with expectations for a new structural mainline to emerge as June progresses [7]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a volatile trend with rapid style rotation, leading to cautious investor sentiment [1] - Defensive dividend assets are attracting significant capital, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF (513530) seeing seven consecutive weeks of net inflows since April 3, 2025, reaching new highs in both shares and scale [1] - The latest data shows that the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF has a 12-month dividend yield of 7.92% and a price-to-book ratio of 0.62, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1] Group 2 - The low interest rate environment and ample liquidity in the Hong Kong market are expected to reshape the valuation space for high dividend assets [2] - Huatai-PB Fund has over 18 years of experience in index investment and has strategically developed a comprehensive range of dividend-themed ETFs since 2006 [2] - The two largest dividend-themed ETFs in the A-share market, with scales exceeding 15 billion, are the Dividend ETF (510880) and the Low Volatility Dividend ETF (512890) [2]

Group 1 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) decreased by 0.64% as of May 16, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Leading gainers included Kailuan Energy Chemical (600997) up 3.04%, Shenneng (600810) up 2.47%, and Fu'ao (000030) up 2.45%, while China Petroleum & Chemical (600028) led the declines down 2.08% [1] - The State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) fell by 0.55%, with the latest price at 1.09 yuan, and saw a significant increase in shares by 6.6 million over the past three months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index is composed of 100 listed companies selected for high cash dividend yields, stable dividends, and certain scale and liquidity [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index included COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937), collectively accounting for 15.18% of the index [2] Group 3 - Guohai Securities noted that recent joint statements indicate a positive shift in the economic and trade relations between the parties, marking a new phase of "offensive and defensive shifts" since the trade frictions began in 2018 [1] - The recommendation is to maintain dividend assets as a core allocation to mitigate potential volatility, while also considering segments of the export industry that have been overly pessimistic and undervalued [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that institutional investors are optimistic about dividend assets, particularly in the context of the Hong Kong stock market [1] - Domestic macroeconomic growth momentum is showing signs, but the foundation still needs to be solidified, with external demand under pressure and resilient internal demand [1] - Key economic indicators in March showed a general year-on-year recovery, with notable performance in consumption, production, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment, although industrial product prices remain under pressure and real estate investment is still weak [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI saw a significant month-on-month decline in April, indicating external demand shocks [1] - The Politburo meeting emphasized responding to external uncertainties with high-quality development and proposed new structural monetary policy tools to support stable foreign trade and expand consumption, suggesting targeted policy measures to mitigate risks [1] - In this context of stability, the capital market's tone is expected to align, making the search for defensive assets an important allocation strategy [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (code: 930914), which selects listed companies with high dividend yields available for trading through the Stock Connect [1] - The index primarily covers sectors such as transportation, resources, and consumer industries, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend Hong Kong stocks [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider related funds such as the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [1]