Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury market is facing significant pressure, with rising yields and a deteriorating fiscal situation, leading to concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [1][3][16] Group 1: Market Reactions - Since October of the previous year, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has increased from 3.8% to 4.1%, despite the Federal Reserve's signals of potential rate cuts, causing investors to retreat [3][5] - PIMCO's decision to reduce its holdings in long-term U.S. Treasuries in favor of UK and Australian bonds has raised alarms in the market, leading to increased volatility in bond prices [5][7] - The auction for 20-year Treasuries in November saw a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.46, significantly below the historical average, indicating a lack of demand for U.S. debt [5][11] Group 2: Fiscal and Economic Indicators - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with projected fiscal deficits for the 2024 fiscal year starting at $1.7 trillion, raising concerns about the long-term viability of U.S. debt [3][7] - The Federal Reserve's data indicates that new debt issuance in 2024 will amount to $1.6 trillion, with 40% expected to be absorbed by domestic institutions, while foreign central banks are reducing their holdings [7][9] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, with core PCE inflation at 2.8%, prompting the Fed to adjust the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5% [9][11] Group 3: International Dynamics - Foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries has waned, with China reducing its holdings to $800 billion and Japan selling $10 billion in Treasuries to realize profits [5][7][13] - The strong dollar in 2022 led to a 15% depreciation of the Chinese yuan, but as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, the yuan has begun to appreciate, affecting international demand for dollar-denominated debt [13][16] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve has revised its asset redemption rules, reducing the monthly cap on Treasury redemptions to $200 billion starting in April 2025, aiming to stabilize liquidity in the market [11][16] - Despite recent rate cuts leading to a decrease in the 10-year yield to 4.06%, underlying issues such as reduced foreign holdings, expanding fiscal deficits, and ongoing political tensions remain unresolved [16][17]

（文章来源：新华财经） 数据显示，香港特区政府本财政年度前七个月的整体开支及收入分别为4389亿港元及2924亿港元。计入 发行政府债券所得1166亿港元及偿还政府债券269亿港元的本金后，本财政年度前七个月赤字568亿港 元。 特区政府发言人表示，截至10月的赤字主要是由于薪俸税及利得税等主要收入均大多在财政年度的后期 收取。 此外，财政储备在2025年10月31日为5975亿港元。 新华财经香港11月28日电（记者林迎楠）香港特区政府28日公布本财政年度前七个月（即截至2025年10 月31日）的财务状况显示，本财政年度前七个月财政赤字568亿港元。 ...

在全球各国疯狂购金的大牛市中，突然出现了一件极其反常的事。 11月20日，俄罗斯中央银行向俄罗斯国际文传电讯社确认，该行已开始出售储备的实物黄金，以弥补国家预算所需资金。 这是俄罗斯历史上首次公开将黄金储备用于财政支出。 据俄罗斯财政部的数据：从2022年战争前-2025年11月1日，国家财富基金的黄金储备从405.7吨骤减至173.1吨，累计抛售232.6吨，抛售比例高达57%。 这与俄罗斯过去的黄金操作有本质区别：以前主要是政府与央行之间的账面调整，黄金仍留在国家金库，属于是"账面调整"；而这次是实物交易，是"实 质性减持"。 这是货真价实的"搬金条出库"，标志着俄罗斯财政政策的重大转向。 至于原因，显而易见：补贴战争支出。 但这必然不是全部。 百万之师，日费浩繁 从数据上看，俄罗斯的财政压力已经爆表：2025年上半年财政赤字高达3.69万亿卢布，是 2024年同期的5倍以上。 最大负担是军费。 卖了多少？ 2025年俄罗斯联邦政府的财政支出规划为41.469万亿卢布，其中13.5万亿卢布为国防开支预算，占比高达32.55%，比2024年还要增长25%。 而这还不是全部。 2024年，4.1万亿卢布的经济 ...

Core Points - Trump's proposal aims to distribute $2,000 stimulus checks to American families funded by tariff revenues, intending to alleviate economic pressure on ordinary households [1][5] - The Senate opposes the plan, citing concerns over the already high national debt of $38 trillion and the lack of sufficient funds to support such large-scale spending [1][3][12] Group 1: Economic Implications - The plan is seen as a way to stimulate consumption and provide direct economic assistance, particularly for low- and middle-income families, while excluding high-income households [5][10] - There are concerns that distributing $2,000 checks could exacerbate inflation, potentially worsening the already strained economic situation [10][12] - Current tariff revenues are insufficient to fund the proposed $2,000 checks for 150 million Americans, raising questions about the feasibility of the plan [16] Group 2: Political Dynamics - The stimulus check proposal has become a focal point of political maneuvering between Democrats and Republicans, with Democrats potentially using it to gain electoral support [14] - The White House is exploring options to bypass Congress to implement the plan directly, indicating a willingness to navigate around legislative hurdles [15] - The political landscape surrounding the proposal is complex, with potential repercussions for the Republican Party if the plan fails to materialize [14]

广发期货： 美国经济运行和就业市场持续受到政府"关门"和贸易摩擦的冲击，然而随着美联储内部分歧较大并释放 鹰派信号使短期政策不确定性增加。地缘政治、金融机构"爆雷"等风险事件频发，更多央行增持黄金， 投资者重塑资产定价体系对金融属性强的商品货币的配置比例仍将上升，中长期有望驱动贵金属有望重 现类似 1970 年代的牛市行情。但从前几轮金价上涨经验看，价格在创新高后可能面临2-3 个月的盘整 或要到 12 月酝酿新的上涨动能。由于市场流动性受到美国政府结束"关门"的时点和美联储官员表态扰 动美元偏强加剧价格回调压力但目前看下方买盘力量仍存，短期国际金呈现宽幅波动若跌破3900 美元 （900元）可以择机逢低买入，后期仍以震荡整理走势为主。 期货公司观点 美债收益率再次下跌，下跌原因在于，一是政策预期博弈，美债定价隐含 "经济走弱→美联储 12 月降 息" 预期，但 9 月零售销售控制组数据不及预期，假日消费计划收缩，经济前景存疑，投资者等待失业 金申请、核心 PCE 等数据验证，提前抛售美债避险。 二是财政赤字承压，当日美国财政部公布 2026 财年首月赤字达 2840 亿美元，日均新增债务超 90 亿， 财政 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. federal government collected $31 billion in tariff revenues in October, marking the highest monthly collection since the implementation of steep import taxes during the Trump administration [2][7] - The steady collection of tariff revenues is being considered as a potential funding source for proposed $2,000 stimulus checks for low- and middle-income Americans [4][5] - The government reported a $284 billion deficit in October, highlighting ongoing concerns about national debt despite rising tariff revenues [9][10] Tariff Revenue Collection - October's tariff revenue of $31 billion follows collections of $30 billion in the previous two months, indicating a consistent revenue stream since the introduction of reciprocal tariffs in August [3][7] - The total tariff collections for the fiscal year ending September 2024 reached $195 billion, significantly higher than the $77 billion collected in the prior fiscal year [3][7] Economic Implications - Economists estimate that the proposed $2,000 checks could cost around $300 billion if distributed to adults earning less than $100,000 annually, while ongoing tariff collections could potentially exceed this cost at a rate of approximately $360 billion per year [8][9] - If tariff collections maintain their current pace, they could cover the costs of the proposed checks by June 2026 [9] Legislative Considerations - There is pushback from some legislators regarding the use of tariff revenues for stimulus checks, with suggestions that these funds should first be directed towards reducing the national debt [10] - The proposal for stimulus checks is still under discussion, with some members of Congress open to examining the idea while others express skepticism [10] Future Expectations - President Trump anticipates an increase in tariff collections in the coming months as importers deplete stockpiles accumulated before tariffs were enacted [11] - The administration is exploring legislative pathways to implement the proposed stimulus checks, despite the challenges posed by the current budget deficit [10][11]

新华财经华盛顿11月26日电美国财政部25日发布的数据显示，受近期联邦政府"停摆"影响，10月美国政 府财政赤字升至2840亿美元，较去年同期增长10%。 美国媒体援引美国财政部官员的话报道，2026财年（2025年10月至2026年9月）首月预算结果因多个联 邦机构"停摆"而延迟公布，此次"停摆"导致政府雇员薪资等多项款项支付延期。 数据显示，10月美国政府财政赤字较去年同期增加270亿美元，增幅达10%。当月财政支出达6890亿美 元，同比增长18%。 彭博社评论，美国10月财政赤字数据凸显特朗普政府在试图大幅削减联邦借贷需求方面面临的挑战。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

新华社华盛顿11月26日电 美国财政部25日发布的数据显示，受近期联邦政府"停摆"影响，10月美国政 府财政赤字升至2840亿美元，较去年同期增长10%。 美国媒体援引美国财政部官员的话报道，2026财年（2025年10月至2026年9月）首月预算结果因多个联 邦机构"停摆"而延迟公布，此次"停摆"导致政府雇员薪资等多项款项支付延期。 数据显示，10月美国政府财政赤字较去年同期增加270亿美元，增幅达10%。当月财政支出达6890亿美 元，同比增长18%。 彭博社评论，美国10月财政赤字数据凸显特朗普政府在试图大幅削减联邦借贷需求方面面临的挑战。 （完） ...

Core Points - The European Commission announced that Germany's defense spending increase has led to an excessive deficit, but no procedures have been initiated against Germany for this issue [1] - The Commission highlighted several strategic vulnerabilities and structural challenges facing the EU, including low productivity, demographic pressures, and rising public spending demands related to defense, decarbonization, and digital economy transformation [1] - The Commission called for EU member states to maintain sound public finances and enhance competitiveness [1] Summary by Category Fiscal Outlook - The European Commission projected that the budget deficit in the Eurozone will slightly increase from 3.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, further rising to 3.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 [2] - Finland's budget deficit is expected to be 4.4% of GDP in 2024, rising to 4.5% in 2025 and decreasing to 4.0% in 2026, prompting the need for excessive deficit procedures against Finland [1] Member States' Performance - Germany's projected budget deficit is expected to reach 3.1% of GDP in 2025, 4.0% in 2026, and 3.8% in 2027 [1] - The European Commission emphasized that under the Stability and Growth Pact, member states' annual budget deficits should not exceed 3% of GDP, and public debt should not exceed 60% of GDP [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has begun selling its physical gold reserves to address the national budget deficit amid ongoing war conditions, marking a shift from gold as a safety asset to a liquidity tool [1][5]. Group 1: Changes in Gold Reserves - Approximately 57% of the national wealth fund's gold, equating to 232.6 tons, has been sold, leaving 173.1 tons as of November 1 [1]. - The transition from bookkeeping adjustments to actual physical delivery of gold signifies a change in approach, moving from internal transfers to tangible gold bars exchanged for cash [3]. Group 2: Economic Pressures and Policy Adjustments - External financing pressures have increased due to sanctions freezing foreign reserves and declining oil and gas revenues, leading to an expanding budget deficit [3]. - The Russian government has eliminated VAT on retail gold purchases to stimulate domestic demand, indicating a shift in policy to open gold access to the general public [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical precedents show that countries like Iceland, Greece, and Venezuela have resorted to selling gold during financial crises when external financing was blocked and internal liquidity was constrained [5]. - The current situation in Russia reflects a similar pattern where gold is being utilized not just as a store of wealth but as a means to sustain economic operations [5]. Group 4: Domestic Market Strategy - Russia is primarily selling gold bars in the domestic market to avoid price volatility associated with international sales and to manage price expectations [7]. - The sale of gold is seen as a necessary measure to maintain economic stability, with the potential for further sales depending on the ongoing war and its financial implications [7]. Group 5: Future Implications - The continuation of the war will require significant funding, and post-war recovery will also necessitate cash flow for industrial revival and infrastructure repair [9]. - The choice to sell gold rather than print more currency aims to inject liquidity into the market while controlling inflationary pressures [9].