经济数据方面，美国人口调查局上周五公布7月零售销售月率增长0.5%，符合预期；6月数据从0.6%上修至0.9%。但密 歇根大学初步数据显示，美国消费者信心指数意外从7月的61.7降至58.6，预期指数也从57.7降至57.2。更值得关注的 是，一年期通胀预期从4.5%升至4.9%，五年期通胀预期从3.4%升至3.9%，叠加上周四强劲的生产者价格指数，显示价 格压力有所回升。 这进一步削弱了市场对美联储激进宽松政策的预期，尤其是对9月大幅降息的押注，从而为美元提供支撑。但缺乏实质 性买盘的情况下，多头仍需保持谨慎。交易者或避免激进布局，转而等待周三公布的美联储会议纪要。此外，美联储 主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话预计将提供降息线索和重要指引。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 美国总统特朗普与俄罗斯领导人普京在阿拉斯加的会晤虽未取得明确突破，但投资者仍期待此次对话能增加结束俄乌 冲突的可能性。特朗普周一早间表示，乌克兰总统泽连斯基若愿意"几乎可以立即"结束与俄罗斯的战争。特朗普将于 今日欧洲领导人加入扩大会议前，先行与泽连斯基举行双边会谈。这一进展缓解地缘政治风险，持续支撑当前的市场 风险偏好。 市场预计美联储9月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - US consumer - end inflation rebound reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts, and the EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. Due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price pullbacks to lay out long positions [1] Summary by Related Data Shanghai Gold - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 775.86 yuan/g, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day, and the trading volume was 23,234. The position volume decreased by 730. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 2.34, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 2.71 [1] Shanghai Silver - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 9,173 yuan/ten - gram, up 15 yuan from the previous day, and the trading volume was 452,542. The position volume decreased by 63,142. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 23, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 12 [1] COMEX Gold Futures - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week, and the trading volume was 115,486. The position volume decreased by 3,192. The inventory was 38,668,707.68 troy ounces [1] COMEX Silver Futures - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day, and the trading volume was 86,225. The position volume decreased by 34,959. The inventory was 507,014,610.35 troy ounces [1] London Gold Spot - Price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 3,383.75 dollars/ounce, down 8.35 dollars from the previous day [1] London Silver Spot - Price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 37.73 dollars/ounce, down 0.59 dollars from the previous day [1] Summary by Macroeconomic Information US Economy - In July, retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations climbed. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in short - term Treasury bonds in Q3. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in PPI and core CPI in July. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations in August were 4.9% and 3.9%, higher than expected and previous values, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1] European Economy - The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1] UK Economy - The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and previous values. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), so the Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1] Japanese Economy - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The core CPI annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), flat compared to expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in Q2 was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise rates, there is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait for price pullbacks to lay out long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/g and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/g; for London silver, focus on the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - gram [1]

美国财长贝森特近日公开批评日本央行"政策滞后"，敦促其通过加息遏制通胀压力。然而，市场分析指 出，日本消费复苏疲软及潜在的美对日汽车关税风险，可能迫使日央行维持审慎立场。当前美元/日元 交投于关键技术水平附近，市场正评估日本货币政策正常化步伐与美联储政策转向的博弈关系。 美元兑日元支撑位见于147.10水平（38.2%斐波那契回撤位）、145.80-146.00区间（50日、100日移动平 均线）。阻力位在147.90（21日移动平均线）、149.40-149.50区间（200日移动平均线、2025年高低点 的50%斐波那契回撤位）。 周一（8月18日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元上涨，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间10:55分，美元兑日 元报价147.50，上涨0.22%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.18。日本央行7月政策会议释放鹰派信 号，上调通胀预期并保留年内加息选项，叠加CME FedWatch显示美联储9月降息概率高达93.8%，推动 避险日元持续走强。 ...

来源：市场资讯 8月18日，美国商务部周五公布的数据显示，7月零售额在汽车销售和大型在线促销活动的推动下普遍增 长，这表明消费者在近几个月的支出有所增加。不过就业市场放缓和商品价格上涨可能抑制第三季消费 者支出增长。未经通胀调整的7月份零售销售额环比增长0.5%，符合预期，前值由0.60%修正为0.9%。 若剔除汽车销售，零售额则增长了0.3%。上个月零售额增长的部分原因可能是关税推动价格上涨，而 不是销量。摩根大通分析师说，在9月30日联邦政府税收抵免到期之前，人们争相购买电池驱动的电动 汽车，这在一定程度上推动了7月份的汽车销售。 另外，周五公布的密歇根大学8月份的初步报告显示，美国消费者信心指数自4月以来首次下滑、从五个 月高点滑落，长短期通胀预期均上升，反映出人们对关税影响的持续担忧。无论是信心指数还是通胀预 期指标，都逊于媒体调查的经济学家的预期。美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值58.6，不及预期 的62，前值为61.7。分项指数方面，现况指数初值60.9，创三个月低点，预期67.3，前值68；预期指数 初值57.2，预期58.1，前值57.7。密歇根大学调查负责人Joanne Hsu在一份声明 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic and financial data weakness does not change the high - low switching trend between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The continuous net -回笼 of funds by the central bank from Monday to Thursday last week did not change the loose liquidity, and the central bank switched to net - injection on Friday. The loose funds support short - end interest rates, while long - end interest rates are rising due to the strong performance of the equity market [2][92]. - The Q2 2025 monetary policy report shows an attitude of liquidity care and emphasizes "preventing capital idling". The central bank may focus more on micro - level changes, improve the transmission efficiency of policy interest rates to market interest rates, and prevent capital idling in the next stage [2][11][93]. - Given the loose funds and strong stock market, the yield curve may become steeper. In the short term, short - term bonds perform well due to loose funds, while long - term bonds are at a disadvantage. In the long term, the interest rate center will decline, and the rigid demand of institutional investors will support bonds. The investment strategy is to "shorten portfolio duration + prioritize old bonds" [2][95]. Summary by Directory 1. Important Matters - On August 15, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan 6 - month买断式逆回购 operation, resulting in a net injection of 3000 billion yuan after the operation, as the August maturity scale is 9000 billion yuan [5]. - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued a personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026, with detailed subsidy rules and a list of first - batch loan - handling institutions [7]. - The credit data in July 2025 was relatively weak. The cumulative social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan, with specific changes in various components compared to the previous year [8]. - The Q2 2025 monetary policy report was released on August 15, with changes in the next - stage monetary policy direction compared to the Q1 report, mainly focusing on implementing policies more precisely, improving interest rate transmission, and preventing capital idling [11]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From August 11 to 15, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day open - market operations had a net -回笼 of 4149 billion yuan. It is expected that 9318 billion yuan of base currency will be matured and withdrawn from August 18 to 22 [15][16]. - The funds were relatively loose last week, and the policy interest rate of the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of August 15, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 had specific changes compared to August 8, and their interest rate centers also changed [21]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial bank certificates of deposit were in a net - financing - out state last week, with a net financing scale of - 1311.1 billion yuan. The state - owned banks had the largest issuance scale, and the 1 - year CD issuance rate of national and joint - stock banks dropped to around 1.62% - 1.63% [27][30]. - In the secondary market, due to the overall market weakness, the yields of CDs of all maturities were on the rise, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened [34]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, on August 14, the marginal interest rate of the 3 - year treasury bond (250015) was 1.4600%, and the net - financing rhythm of local government bonds from January to August was faster than that of treasury bonds. The supply of local bonds from August to September may have a relatively long average maturity. Last week, the issuance and net - financing scale of interest - rate bonds decreased [38][45]. - As of August 15, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 reached 1.89 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities, with certain regional differences in issuance [47]. - In the secondary market, the strong performance of the equity market last week led to a weak bond market. The short - end interest rates were supported by low - level running funds, and the curve steepened further. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year treasury and CDB active bonds increased, and the term spread and the spread between national and local bonds had specific changes [50][54][57]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - In July, the institutional leverage ratio decreased seasonally and was at a relatively low level compared to the same period due to the upward - fluctuating bond market. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was relatively high last week [66][71]. - In the cash - bond market, state - owned banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities within 5 years, rural commercial banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities over 5 years and CDB bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years, while securities firms and funds were net sellers, and funds mainly reduced their holdings of long - term bonds [66][76]. - The current average cost of major trading desks for adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds is above 1.70%, with rural commercial banks' cost decreasing due to large - scale position - adding [79]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar futures decreased by 1.47% week - on - week, wire rod futures remained flat, cathode copper futures increased by 1.01%, the cement price index decreased by 1.05%, and the Nanhua Glass Index decreased by 1.58%. The CCFI index decreased by 0.62%, and the BDI index increased by 2.26%. The wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.00%, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 3.94%. Brent crude oil futures increased by 8.88%, and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.61%. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [90]. 6. Market Outlook - The high - low switching trend between stocks and bonds will continue. The central bank's liquidity operations maintain loose funds, supporting short - end interest rates and causing long - end interest rates to rise due to the strong equity market [2][92]. - The central bank may focus on micro - level changes and improve the transmission efficiency of interest rates in the next - stage monetary policy, while preventing capital idling [2][93]. - The yield curve may become steeper in the short term. In the long term, the interest rate center will decline, and the investment strategy is to "shorten portfolio duration + prioritize old bonds" [2][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Rebar is for range trading; Iron ore is expected to be oscillating upwards; Coking coal and coke are to trade sideways [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is for range trading or staying on the sidelines; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel is suggested to stay on the sidelines or sell on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for shorting 09 and going long on 05 for arbitrage; Caustic soda is expected to oscillate; Styrene is expected to oscillate; Rubber is expected to oscillate; Urea is expected to trade sideways; Methanol is expected to trade sideways; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations [1][20][29] - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be oscillating upwards; Apples are expected to be oscillating upwards; Jujubes are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][34][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies; Eggs are recommended to sell on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is expected to have range oscillations; Oils are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][36][44] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and political situation, such as the "Trump - Putin meeting", US economic data, and China's monetary policy, has an impact on the financial and commodity markets [6] - The supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy factors of various commodities determine their price trends and investment strategies [8][20][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: After a short - term high, the market may oscillate and wash out positions, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6] - **Treasury bonds**: In the context of the continuous increase in trading volume in the equity market, there are potential risks in the bond market, such as the transfer of funds from funds and wealth management to the equity market and increased frictions in the inter - bank market. Short - term adjustments should be avoided [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost is at a neutral level, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and attention should be paid to inventory increases, coking coal production resumption, and indirect steel exports [8] - **Iron ore**: The supply is slightly decreasing, and demand remains strong. With the National Day parade expectation, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [8][9] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the price has limited downside space but may have short - term adjustments. Coke is in a tight supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to production restrictions during the parade, iron - water production trends, and raw material price fluctuations [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro environment is favorable, but short - term upward driving forces are insufficient. Low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to be oscillating upwards. The short - term operating range is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level. Although there are short - term negative factors, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to have support, and range trading is recommended, with the reference range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [17] - **Silver and gold**: After the decline in precious metal prices due to factors such as the 7 - month PPI data in the US, there is support below. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price pullback [17][18] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports have uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 4900 - 5100 range [20][21] - **Caustic soda**: The supply is abundant, demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is expected to be oscillating upwards, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 2500 - yuan support level [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. Supply has the potential to increase, demand has risks of weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate, temporarily focusing on the 7100 - 7400 range [24] - **Rubber**: The new - rubber release is affected by rain, and there is cost support. However, the inventory - removal speed may slow down in late August. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, focusing on the 15,200 - 15,600 range [26] - **Urea**: Supply is slightly decreasing, agricultural demand is scattered, and compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price has support below and pressure above, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is slightly decreasing, demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [29] - **Polyolefins**: The cost has uncertainties, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition. The price is expected to be oscillating weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2509 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [29][30] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to increase, and the industry is over - capacitated. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [32] 3.5 Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, the macro environment is favorable, and with the approaching peak season, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34] - **Apples**: The inventory market is stable and dull, and the early - maturing market has quality differences. Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The枣树 is in the fruit - swelling stage, and the market has certain trading volumes. The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the near term [35] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is oscillating at the bottom. The 09 contract has a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 11 and 01 contracts have supply pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [36][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, which restricts price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies. If the elimination process accelerates, there are opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts. Overall, it is recommended to short the near - term and go long on the far - term contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is oscillating in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40][42] - **Soybean meal**: The US soybean supply - demand situation is tightening, but the price increase is limited. The domestic supply is abundant in August and September. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2511 and M2601 contracts and roll them, and spot enterprises should build long positions [43] - **Oils**: Although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections, the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage of rapeseed oil [44][50]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国零售销售继续大幅增长，金价震荡；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一， 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨3.11个基 点报4.318%；美元指数跌0.36%报97.8509，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1891； COMEX黄金期货跌0.04%报3381.70美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国钢铝关税扩大清淡、美乌欧会面、美国8月NAHB房产市场指 数。美国零售销售继续大幅增长，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心意外回落，长短期 通胀预期攀升，俄乌首脑会晤顺利，金价小 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The reduction of LME lead inventory supports lead prices [1] - China announced economic data for July, with year-on-year figures for monthly social consumer goods retail, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and real - estate sales all lower than the previous values. The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales have grown for ten consecutive months. US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan unexpectedly declined in August, with both short - and long - term inflation expectations rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,850 yuan/ton, up 0.48%, while the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,981 dollars/ton, down 0.45%. The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 32,601 lots, a decrease of 13,015 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 3,833 lots, a decrease of 1,426 lots [1] - **Position and Premium**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 51,207 lots, a decrease of 163 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 159,636 lots, an increase of 5,106 lots. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 43.24 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.37 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory and Profit**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,784 tons, unchanged, and the LME lead inventory was 261,100 tons, a decrease of 575 tons. The profit and loss of lead ingot spot imports was - 529.04 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.28 yuan/ton, and the profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three imports was - 524.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.02 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - China's economic data in July showed a slowdown in multiple indicators, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In the US, retail sales increased in July, but consumer confidence declined in August with rising inflation expectations [2] 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economic data shows resilience, but inflation expectations are rising, and the future inflation pressure still faces upward risks. The short - term gold price is in a weak shock, and the US dollar index is in a high - level shock. The Chinese stock market may continue to rise in the short - term, but there are risks of high - level fluctuations. The prices of various commodities have different trends, with some expected to be in a shock pattern, some to rise, and some to fall [14][18][21] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US in August was 58.6, lower than expected. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations increased. The retail sales in July rebounded as expected, and the previous value was revised upward. The short - term gold price is in a weak shock, and investors should pay attention to the callback risk [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump and Putin met, and EU and NATO leaders will go to Washington. The US - Russia talks did not reach an agreement. The US may put pressure on Ukraine for "territory for peace". The US dollar index is expected to be in a high - level shock [16][18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's economic data in July declined. The stock market's upward trend deviated from the economic fundamentals slightly. It may continue to rise in the short - term, but there are risks of high - level fluctuations. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][21][22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US consumer confidence declined, inflation expectations rose, and the economy showed a slight stagflation trend. The Fed's future interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain. The market risk preference is supported, but the risk of inflation rebound may increase market volatility [24][25][26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's economic data in July declined comprehensively. The demand is weak, and the bond market environment is not optimistic. If the stock market rises rapidly, the interest - rate center may rise. It is recommended to pay attention to short - hedging strategies [27][28][29] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in Beigang was stable on August 15. The coal price is expected to enter the seasonal off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward space and its impact on market sentiment [30][31][32] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The production of India's NMDC in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased significantly. The iron ore price is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term, and the iron water may decline slightly [33][34][36] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia confiscated 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm oil plantations, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 increased by 16.5%. The palm oil price is expected to continue to rise, and it is recommended to go long. The international soybean oil price is affected by policies, and the domestic soybean oil price is expected to rise [37][38] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in July reached a six - month high. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations and US soybean production areas' weather [39][41] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton inventory and demand in the 2024/25 season increased. Brazil's cotton production was slightly adjusted down. The new - year US cotton export signing was okay, but the overall progress was slow. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock, and the Zhengzhou cotton price may be in a strong shock in the short - term but not optimistic in the fourth quarter [42][43][46] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's port sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions decreased slightly, but the sugar - making ratio reached a new high. The international sugar price is expected to be in a weak shock in the short - term, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be in a shock pattern, with the 1 - month contract suitable for buying on dips [47][50][52] 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korean steel mills applied for an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese steel products. China's steel production in July decreased year - on - year, and real estate investment declined. The steel price is expected to be in a weak shock, and attention should be paid to the actual demand [53][54][57] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory is high and difficult to reduce. The starch supply - demand is weak. The CS09 - C09 spread is affected by different factors at different times [58][59] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased slightly. The corn inventory is not loose. The 11 and 01 contracts may have a downward space, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 3 reverse spread [60] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two batches of alumina in Western Australia were traded. The alumina industry profit is good, and the supply is slowly increasing, with the futures price under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [61][62] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Shanghai nickel futures inventory increased. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the nickel market supply and demand have different characteristics. Different strategies can be considered for different time horizons [63][64][65] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Antofagasta expects its medium - term copper production to increase by more than 30%. The LME promotes market structure reform. The macro - factors support the copper price in stages, but there are risks of repetition. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread [66][67][68] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium's lithium production increased in the second quarter, and the cost decreased. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to buying on dips [69][70] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors of a shortage and price increase of photovoltaic components. The polysilicon inventory increased, and the production is expected to rise. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock pattern, and different strategies can be considered for long and short positions [71][73][74] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang increased slightly. The overall supply and demand are in a state of de - stocking, but there are uncertainties. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The lead supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [77][78] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is at a discount. The external market has structural risks, and the domestic market is in a state of inventory accumulation. Different strategies can be considered for different trading angles [79] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price decreased slightly. The carbon price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short - term [80][81] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs increased. Trump said not to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil for the time being. The short - term oil price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [82][83][84] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The caustic soda market is expected to be in a shock pattern [85][86] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp market is mostly stable, and the short - term pulp price is expected to be in a shock pattern [87][88] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is in a weak adjustment. The PVC price is expected to be in a shock pattern [89] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX market is in a light trading atmosphere. The PX price is expected to be in a shock adjustment in the short - term [90][91][92] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis is stable. The PTA price is expected to be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand change from the off - season to the peak season [92][93][94] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price is stable with a slight increase. The bottle chip price follows the polyester raw materials' price, and the industry's production reduction effect is gradually emerging [95][96][98] 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in South China is weak and stable. The soda ash price is expected to have large fluctuations, and investors should manage their positions well [99] 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in Hubei decreased. The glass price is expected to be in a shock pattern, and it is recommended to focus on arbitrage operations [100] 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US container imports in July increased sharply. The container freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the previous 10 - month short positions can be held,，and attention should be paid to the National Day empty - flight situation [101][103][104]

·概 要 · 关税向美国通胀传导速度偏缓，加剧降息预期，但后续服务业通胀和商品通胀上行趋势或延续，降息幅度将受掣肘，美联储政策操作进入剧烈博弈期，分 歧进一步加大，短期关注杰克逊·霍尔全球央行年会鲍威尔发言定调。 国泰海通宏观研究团队 本报告作者：汪 浩、梁中华 经济：美国方面：经济边际下行，但整体韧性仍强，通胀预期上升。2025年7月美国工业总产值同比明显上升，工业和制造业产能利用率均略有下降；7月 美国零售和食品销售额同比有所下降，美国密歇根大学消费者信心指数有所下降。8月8日当周，美国炼油厂开工率略有下降，粗钢产量当周同比略有下 降，但整体维持高位；美国红皮书商业零售销售周同比略有下降；美国当周初请失业金人数略有下降；当周美国WEI指数略有下降。8月美国密歇根大学 消费者1年通胀预期和5年通胀预期均上升。欧洲方面：经济持续放缓，通胀预期下行。2025年二季度欧元区GDP同比、环比均有放缓。6月欧元区19国工 业生产指数有所下降。6月德国工业生产指数同比、环比明显下降。8月欧元区ZEW经济景气指数下降，ZEW通胀指数下行。 政策：美国方面：美国通胀数据反映关税传导较慢，降息预期进一步强化，但是未来通胀预期 ...