【基本面消息】 根据纽约联储的消费者预期调查，1月消费者对未来一年通胀率的预期降至3.09%，之前一个月为 3.42%。根据该报告：通胀不确定性的中值，在一年和三年期维度上走低，但在五年期维度上走高。受 访者对家庭当前财务状况的看法恶化，认为家庭状况较一年前变差的比例上升。对未来一年，消费者预 计汽油价格上涨2.8%，食品价格上涨5.74%；医疗成本上涨9.8%，大学教育费用上涨9.03%，租金价格 上涨6.82%。 据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，市场目前预计美联储在3月会议上维持利率不变的概率为82.3%， 较前次预测进一步上升；降息25个基点的概率为17.7%。对后续政策路径的预期亦有所调整：至4月， 累计降息25个基点的概率为32.4%，维持利率不变的概率为63.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为4.0%。 展望至6月，市场预计累计降息25个基点的概率为50.4%，表明多数观点认为首次降息时点或将在年中 前后。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货2月10日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计323368千克，今日仓单较上一 日上涨4822千克。 沪银主力走势继续震荡，今日白银期货开盘报20500元/千克，最高触及 ...

周二，该货币对在连续两个交易日上涨后回落，前一交易日印度卢比兑美元表现疲软。银行家表示，当前市场对冲活动及本地资金流动正常，近期汇率变化 是市场多重因素博弈的结果，非短期资金异动所致。 股权流入改善为印度卢比提供了支撑。周一，外国投资者净买入约2.5亿美元印度股票，使得当月外资净买入总额达约15亿美元。1月份外国投资者曾出现近 40亿美元资金外流，短短一个多月，外资流向从大幅外流转为稳步流入，这一初步转变缓解了卢比下行压力。 市场对美联储政策走向已有共识，普遍认为3月份将维持利率不变，首次降息大概率在6月份，9月份可能再次降息。这一预期与美国通胀预期缓解相关：1月 份美国中位未来通胀预期降至3.1%，为六个月最低，较12月份的3.4%明显回落。但食品价格预期仍维持在5.7%高位，三年期和五年期通胀预期稳定在3%， 通胀回落仍有不确定性。 美印近期达成的临时贸易框架，是限制印度卢比下行的关键。上周五，新德里与华盛顿公布这一框架，旨在降低双边关税、重塑能源合作、深化经济合作。 这是两国经长时间谈判取得突破后的成果，框架落地推动卢比创下三年多来最强劲周涨幅。 美联储官员近期表态凸显"数据依赖"的政策立场。旧金山联储 ...

美元兑瑞士法郎在连续两个交易日回落后，于亚洲时段徘徊在0.7670附近。 瑞士方面呈现出截然不同的宏观环境。市场等待瑞士1月通胀数据，分析师预计年度通胀率将维持在0.1%的低位。在主要经济体中，这一水平显得格外温 和。 瑞士国家银行董事长马丁·施莱格尔指出，持续低通胀与0%的政策利率构成现实挑战，传统政策工具空间受限。瑞士央行的目标仍是将通胀维持在0–2%的区 间内，这种区间管理框架强调价格稳定的优先地位。 美元的表现还与美国经济节奏和政策前景的再评估同步展开。本周美国数据发布密集，关键数据落地前，风险偏好有所回暖，但美元并未获得明显支撑，更 多呈现观望与重新定价的特征。市场对美联储利率路径的预期仍是核心变量。 当前定价显示，三月会议维持利率不变的预期占据主导，首次降息时间被放在六月，九月可能出现后续动作。这一时间线反映出市场在通胀放缓迹象与经济 韧性之间寻找平衡点。 通胀预期的变化提供了更具体的观察窗口。美国1月中位未来一年通胀预期降至3.1%，创下六个月低点，显示居民对价格压力的感知有所缓解。食品价格预 期仍维持在5.7%，说明结构性价格压力尚未完全消退。三年与五年的通胀预期稳定在3%，中长期预期的相对稳 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Aluminum: It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival. - Alumina: It shows a bottom - up rebound. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,540, up 225 from T - 1, 202 from T - 5, 975 from T - 22, and 2,375 from T - 66. The night - session closing price was 23,625. - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 3,130, up 20 from T - 1, 74 from T - 5, 144 from T - 22, and 265 from T - 66. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts showed different degrees of change compared with previous periods [1]. Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,868, up 44 from T - 1, 96 from T - 5, 117 from T - 22, and 30 from T - 66. The night - session closing price was 2,862. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,165, up 215 from T - 1 and 325 from T - 5. The night - session closing price was 22,225. - Trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts changed compared with previous periods, and the spot premium and other indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 875,000 tons, up 22,000 tons from T - 1, 46,000 tons from T - 5, and 237,000 tons from T - 22. - The warehouse receipts of aluminum ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 164,500 tons, up 9,000 tons from T - 1, 14,100 tons from T - 5, and 86,000 tons from T - 22. - The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, import and export profit and loss of aluminum, and other indicators changed compared with previous periods [1]. Alumina - The average domestic alumina price was 2646, with no change from T - 1. The CIF price at Lianyungang and other prices also had corresponding changes. - The profit and loss of alumina enterprises in Shanxi also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 591, up 272 from T - 1. The price difference between Baotai ADC12 - A00 and the total inventory of three places also changed compared with previous periods [1]. Other Raw Materials - The prices of imported bauxite from Indonesia, Australia, and Guinea, and the price of caustic soda in Shaanxi all had different degrees of change compared with previous periods [1]. 4. Comprehensive News and Trend Intensity - The Federal Reserve may reach an agreement with the US Treasury, which may affect the $30 - trillion Treasury market and cause concerns about the loss of central bank independence, rising inflation expectations, and a decline in the dollar's attractiveness. - Wall Street expects the US core CPI to rebound to about 0.3% in January, and inflation is expected to peak in spring and then gradually decline. - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher on February 9, with an opening price of $4983.69 per ounce, a peak of $5060.37, a low of $4965.16, and a closing price of $5058.90 [1]. Economic Indicators - A survey by the New York Federal Reserve indicated that U.S. consumer expectations regarding inflation and the job market improved slightly in January, with the median inflation expectation for the next year at 3.1%, down from 3.4% in December [3]. - The probability of finding a new job within three months increased to approximately 46%, while the perceived likelihood of job loss decreased [3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates was supported by signs of stability in the labor market, with policymakers indicating that recent rate cuts would support the labor market while keeping rates sufficiently high to exert downward pressure on inflation [3]. Geopolitical Developments - Following an incident in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. advised vessels flying the American flag to avoid Iranian waters, highlighting the risks associated with maritime navigation in the region [4]. - The U.S. Department of Defense reported the interception of an oil tanker linked to Venezuela, indicating an expansion of efforts to combat illegal oil transport globally [5]. - Mexico has suspended oil shipments to Cuba to avoid potential retaliation from Washington, as it had become the largest oil supplier to Cuba following U.S. sanctions on Venezuela [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by March is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a slight upward trend, with a daily close above key moving average support levels, although short-term indicators suggested potential for a pullback [9][10]. - The market is advised to maintain a cautious trading strategy, balancing between long and short positions [11].

客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 作者： 新能源有色金属组 相关品种：沪金、沪银 宏观面上看，美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最 差。去年12月职位空缺数量大幅下降至654万，为2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数则意外大增2.2 万至23.1万。美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得57.3，创六个月来最高水平。与此同时，1年 期通胀预期降至3.5%，为一年来的最低水平。弱势的就业数据或将强化美联储在货币政策上的偏鸽表 态，整体看利多贵金属的宏观环境未发生改变。 此外，2月7日，央行公布数据显示，1月末黄金储备为7419万盎司，较上月末增加4万盎司。这是自2024 年11月重启增持后，央行连续第15个月增加黄金储备。 近期贵金属价格波动率显著升高，与美股等风险资产的正向相关性凸显。近期多次出现价格大幅下挫的 情况，主要催化或集中在美股riskoff情绪下的恐慌性抛售，由于贵金属前期价格上涨斜率过于陡峭，流 动性恐慌背景下易出现价格大幅下挫。但整体看多贵金属的逻辑及宏观环境未发生变化，故目前对于操 作而言，贵金属仍然建 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rich Clarida, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, anticipates significant adjustments in the Federal Reserve's policy framework under Kevin Walsh's leadership, particularly in forward guidance, balance sheet management, and credit allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Clarida identifies three main areas for potential policy adjustments: forward guidance, balance sheet management, and credit allocation related to mortgages [2]. - Walsh has expressed concerns over the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and has criticized the reliance on forward guidance, suggesting it may create confusion regarding future monetary policy [2]. - Walsh's proposal for a new "Treasury-Fed Agreement" aims to facilitate collaboration between the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and mortgage agencies in reducing the balance sheet size [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations and Inflation Considerations - Clarida notes that Walsh is likely to support at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3%-3.25%, as the market has largely priced in these cuts [3]. - There is potential for a third rate cut, which could lower the target range to 2.75%-3%, depending on inflation expectations [3]. - Walsh's approach may become more cautious after the initial rate cuts, particularly if inflation expectations rise significantly above current levels [3]. Group 3: Communication Policy Changes - The most significant difference in the "Walsh Fed" compared to previous chairs will be in communication policy, with a likely reduction in detailed forward guidance on future interest rate paths [4][5]. - Clarida references historical precedents where the Fed successfully maintained price stability and supported growth without extensive forward guidance, suggesting a potential shift in communication strategy [5]. - Walsh will need to collaborate with the Federal Reserve's committee to implement these reforms, with Clarida highlighting positive economic indicators such as technology capital spending and tax policy benefits [5].

纽约联储调查显示，美国消费者对通胀和就业市场的预期在1月略有改善。家庭对未来一年通胀的预期 中值为3.1%，低于12月的3.4%。消费者认为失去工作的概率小幅下降，而在三个月内找到新工作的概 率上升至约46%。劳动力市场趋于稳定的迹象为美联储上月维持利率不变创造了条件，此前美联储在 2025年末连续三次降息。政策制定者表示，这些降息将支持劳动力市场，同时仍保持利率在足够高的水 平，以继续对通胀形成下行压力。家庭对未来一年自身财务状况的看法大致分化，一半受访者认为情况 将改善，另一半认为将恶化。对未来三年和五年的通胀预期均维持在3%不变。 ...

美联储：美国1月一年期通胀那个预期降至3.09%，前值3.42%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market has been in a high - volatility state in the past week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI has resurfaced, and the sharp correction of technology stocks, Bitcoin, and precious metals led by silver has impacted asset prices and raised investors' risk - aversion sentiment. In the domestic market, due to the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, futures exchanges have announced margin hikes, leading to a significant outflow of funds from the futures market [5][10]. - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in March, with a probability of 82.3%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The capital market was highly volatile last week, with a collective correction. Overseas, the AI divergence affected asset prices. In the domestic market, the approaching Spring Festival led to margin hikes and a large - scale outflow of futures market funds. The BDI index dropped sharply, and most commodities corrected. The domestic bond market rebounded, while the stock index and most commodity categories declined. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals with a - 5.07% drop. The energy - chemical sector was dragged down by the fall in crude oil prices, and coal - coking - steel and oilseeds also had notable declines. Agricultural products showed mixed performance [5][16]. - In terms of the futures market's capital flow, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors saw the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows. The volatility of the international CRB commodity index and domestic commodity indices increased. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [6]. - The market's focus in the next week will be on the US non - farm payrolls report and CPI data. The non - farm payrolls report may adjust up to 1 million employment data. The market expects non - farm employment growth in January to be in the range of 60,000 - 80,000. China's January inflation and money supply data are also expected to be released next week. The Middle East situation seems to be stabilizing, with indirect talks between the US and Iran [7]. Large - scale Assets - The capital market was highly volatile last week, shifting from divergence to a collective correction. Overseas, the divergence on AI affected asset prices and raised risk - aversion sentiment. The VIX index rose slightly, the US dollar rebounded, and the RMB remained stable. Both the US and Chinese stock markets were under pressure. In the domestic market, due to the Spring Festival, futures exchanges raised margins, leading to a large - scale outflow of funds from the futures market. The BDI index dropped, and most commodities corrected [10]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market rebounded, the stock index declined, and most commodity categories were weak. The growth - style stocks performed significantly worse than the value - style stocks. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 both fell by more than - 2%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by about - 1%. The Wind commodity index had a weekly change of - 21.16%, with 2 out of 10 commodity category indices rising and 8 falling. Precious metals led the decline, followed by non - ferrous metals, and the energy - chemical sector was affected by the fall in crude oil prices [16]. Capital Flow - Last week, there was an overall significant outflow of funds from the commodity futures market. The coal - coking - steel and soft commodity sectors had the most obvious capital inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors had significant outflows [18]. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures declined with large margins last week. The top - rising commodity futures were polysilicon, alumina, and glass, while the top - falling ones were Shanghai silver, platinum, and Shanghai tin [22]. Fluctuation Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB commodity index increased, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind commodity index and Nanhua commodity index both increased significantly. Most commodity futures categories saw higher volatility, except for the agricultural and grain sectors. The chemical and precious metals sectors had remarkable increases in volatility [25]. Macro Logic - The stock index was weak and declined across the board last week. Growth - style stocks had larger fluctuations and deeper declines. The valuation of the stock index was under pressure, and the equity risk premium (ERP) rebounded from a low level [32]. - The commodity price index fell from a high level, and the inflation expectation declined slightly under pressure [35]. - The US bond yield declined overall, the term structure was stable, the term spread fluctuated narrowly, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated sharply, first falling and then rising [52]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" fluctuated, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US bonds widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [57]. Data Tracking - Most international major commodities declined, the BDI index dropped sharply, the CRB index fell, soybeans and corn rose slightly, and gold, silver, copper, and oil all declined. The silver price plunged, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded sharply from a low level [28]. - The asphalt开工率 declined seasonally, real - estate sales remained weak, freight rates decreased, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [44]. - The US bond interest rate decreased, the China - US interest rate spread rebounded, the inflation expectation rose and then fell, the financial conditions showed signs of bottoming out, the US dollar index declined, and the RMB was strong [55]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectation - The Fed is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% in March, with a probability of 82.3% (slightly lower than last week's 87.3%). The probability of a 25 - bp interest rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% increased slightly to 17.7%. The market expects about two interest rate cuts in 2026 [65]. This Week's Focus - Monday (February 9): Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index. - Tuesday (February 10): US December retail sales data, US December import price index. - Wednesday (February 11): China's January CPI, US January non - farm payrolls report. - Thursday (February 12): UK Q4 GDP preliminary value. - Friday (February 13): US January CPI. - Other: The People's Bank of China is expected to announce January money supply data during the week [70].