天风证券指出，2025年以来，铜价受海外政策驱动和供需错配等因素影响，涨幅显著，但从历史经验来 看，白电由于其良好的竞争格局，叠加家电龙头通过涨价、推新等方式实现成本压力传导，盈利能力得 以快速修复。我们认为短期保持观察，材料替代并非一蹴而就，长期建议关注"铝代铜"在政策和成本催 化下的实际落地情况。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

今年下半年以来，全球铜矿供应扰动不断，矿山供应紧张的压力已逐步传导至冶炼环节。11月底，中国 铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）宣布，鉴于铜精矿加工费持续走低，2026年度成员企业将降低矿铜产能 负荷10%以上。这直接加剧了市场对精炼铜供应的担忧。 伦敦金属交易所电子显示屏上的报价不断跳动，最终定格在11448.50美元／吨——今年12月3日，伦铜 突破了自2021年5月以来的盘整区间，再度刷新历史新高。前一天，伦敦金属期货交易所约三分之一的 仓单被注销，加剧了市场对于铜市场供应紧张的担忧，并将"铜博士"推向历史峰值。 根据多位知情人士透露，大宗商品贸易巨头摩科瑞（Mercuria）已于12月2日取消了相应仓单，计划提 取价值约4.6亿美元的铜金属。有分析指出，这批从交易所体系流出的铜，很大一部分正被运往美国。 而同时，为规避市场预期中美国可能对铜加征的关税，贸易商正提前行动，将金属运往美国。尽管相关 政策细节存在不确定性，但美国此前已将铜列为《国防生产法案》下的关键矿产，试图保障自身资源供 应。这导致了一个独特的现象：全球铜的过剩库存几乎全部集中在美国，而世界其他地区的供应则在快 速收紧。 据ICSG数据，20 ...

金吾财讯 | 有色板块延续升势，中国铝业(02600)升7.25%，中国大冶有色金属(00661)升5%，洛阳钼业 (03993)升3.68%，天齐锂业(09696)升3.53%，紫金矿业(02899)升3.17%。 华龙证券指出，当前，矿端紧缺、资源民族主义构成铜供给端基本图景，供应链撕裂与重建加剧紧缺， 全球铜库存分布极不均衡。随着主要经济体经济逐步企稳复苏，供需错配或将逐渐从预期转为现实。以 上背景下，市场短期做多意愿强烈，推动铜等金属价格上涨。该机构表示，美国经济表现较好、预期乐 观，国内2026年铜需求有韧性，铜的供需错配正在从预期转向现实，市场交易热度高、做多意愿强烈。 但随着美铜大涨、沪铜突破10万元大关续创历史新高，应注意铜价短期波动的风险。 联储证券指出，当前阶段，铝商品属性已发生深刻转变：已从传统意义上的大宗原材料，演进为能源价 值在商品层面的核心载体与映射。这一本质变化，构成了我们对铝价长期维持强势、中枢趋势性上移的 核心逻辑基础。而当前铝价上涨仍部分受铜价带动，但后续有望凭借铜铝比值的均值回归动力与"铝代 铜"需求增长的双重红利，获得独立的二次上行动能；2026 年锂市将呈现"供需双增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Huabao ETF (159876) indicates strong investor confidence in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant net subscriptions and positive price movements, suggesting a bullish outlook for the industry [1][5]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Huabao ETF saw an intraday increase of 2.27%, currently up by 1.55%, with a real-time net subscription of 28.2 million units and an additional 15.36 million yuan attracted yesterday, reflecting strong market interest [1]. - Key constituent stocks such as Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum reached new highs, while Hai Liang, China Aluminum, and Huayou Cobalt rose over 4% [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Yun Aluminum: +5.67%, market cap of 108.6 billion yuan, trading volume of 1.625 billion yuan [2]. - Tianshan Aluminum: +4.86%, market cap of 75.3 billion yuan, trading volume of 1.023 billion yuan [2]. - Hai Liang: +4.85%, market cap of 30.2 billion yuan, trading volume of 393 million yuan [2]. - China Aluminum: +4.54%, market cap of 201.7 billion yuan, trading volume of 4.406 billion yuan [2]. - Huayou Cobalt: +4.42%, market cap of 129 billion yuan, trading volume of 4.911 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need for large-scale mergers and restructuring in the aluminum and copper industries to enhance competitiveness and scale [2]. - The aluminum market is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a traditional commodity to a core energy value carrier, with potential for independent price increases driven by the copper-aluminum ratio and rising demand for aluminum [3]. - The current phase of the industry is characterized by a reversal in fundamentals, a "de-involution" policy, and opportunities arising from AI developments, which are expected to lead to more stable returns and a focus on investment efficiency [4].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention any investment ratings for the industry. Core Views - **Copper**: Macro factors continue to drive up copper prices, but caution is needed for a potential high - level pullback before the New Year's Day holiday. Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts. The market liquidity recovered after the yen interest rate hike in late December, pushing up copper prices. However, the pressure on the mid - and downstream industries has been increasing, with the basis and calendar spreads weakening and the social inventory of electrolytic copper rising significantly. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton, much lower than in 2025, which may lead to production cuts and intensify supply shortage expectations. The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. Also, with the approaching New Year's Day holiday, there may be an increasing willingness to close positions, so a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are positive, while industrial factors are negative, leading to high - level oscillations in aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike. On the industrial side, as aluminum prices rose, downstream hesitation increased, and the spot discount remained weak. The expectation of aluminum replacing copper in the home appliance sector provides support for long - term demand. The short - term rise in aluminum prices is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the yen interest rate hike, market liquidity recovered, the US dollar index showed a weak performance, and copper prices trended upward [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark, and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts, indicating high short - term capital attention and a significant increase in volatility [5][16]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to recover from a low level and was approaching the same - period level of previous years. On December 26, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 670,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, which lays a price support foundation for 2026 from the industrial perspective [25]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 202,200 tons, a weekly increase of 27,700 tons. On December 26, the combined inventory of COMEX and LME was 640,000 tons, a weekly increase of 17,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - SMM expects the total output of the copper rod industry in December to decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of operating rates, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the volatility increased. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On December 26, the port inventory of bauxite was 2.60207 billion tons, a decrease of 5.93 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 821.07 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina prices rebounded significantly, driven by the macro improvement, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants shrank in the short term as the electrolytic aluminum price oscillated at a high level [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 612,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The overseas inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 527,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous week. The high - level operation of aluminum prices has suppressed downstream consumption, and the domestic inventory has increased significantly [50]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly, reflecting the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices. On December 25, the inventory of aluminum rods was 96,000 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week, indicating a decrease in downstream operating rates and the start of inventory consumption [55][57]. 4. Conclusion - **Copper**: The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. With the approaching New Year's Day holiday, a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term rise is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60].

01 广西、山东、河北等多地 陶企宣布涨价 临近年关，陶瓷行业迎来一轮集中调价。近期，山东、河北、四川、广西、重庆等多个产区陆续有陶企发布涨价通知，瓷砖及西瓦产品均出现不同幅度上 调。 | 产品类别 | 第级 | 上调单价 | | --- | --- | --- | | 800*800 薄款 | 优等 | 0.5 元/片 | | 800*800 厚款 | 优等 | 0.5 元/片 | | 800*800 超白款 | 优等 | 0.5 元/片 | 从企业公告及业内反馈来看，涨价原因主要集中在两方面：一是进入采暖季后，天然气等能源价格季节性上涨，叠加原材料成本上行，企业生产压力加大； 二是部分经营承压企业提前停产或减产，导致订单向仍在生产的企业集中，短期内供需结构发生变化。 | 产品类别 | 等级 | 上调单价 | | --- | --- | --- | | 400*800 轻奢中板 | 优等 | 0.2 元/片 | | 600*600 通体大理石 | 优等 | 0.2 元/片 | | 800*800 超耐磨大理石 | 优等 | 0.3 元/片 | | 600*1200 中型兴板 | 优等 | 0.5 元/片 | ...

作者丨铁手 编辑丨坚果 封面来源丨Unsplash 年末的中国制造业，正因为一场"铝铜之争"而变得气氛微妙。 在近期的2025年中国家电科技年会上，中国制冷学会团体标准《房间空调器用铝管翅式热交换器生产线建设规范》正式发布，当天，海尔、美的、海信、 TCL、奥克斯、小米、美博等19家空调企业更是共同宣布加入空调铝强化应用研究工作组自律公约。 " " 根据公约约定，企业间"禁止恶意攻击行为，科学地宣传铝换热器空调的特点，不得夸大或进行虚假承诺，切实提升消费者对行业产品与技术的信任度。" 而作为参与《房间空气调节器用热交换器》国家标准修订的企业之一，另一家空调行业巨头格力却缺席了这场倡议发布会。 12月23日，格力电器在互动平台表示，铜是空调的核心原材料，占空调成本的20%左右，尽管同等情况下，铝材成本约为铜材的1/12（价格约为1/4，密度 约为1/3），但其在熔点、热传导系数、电阻率、耐腐蚀等参数以及长期可靠性等方面与铜存在较大差距，在其性能、质量和可靠性不能完全保证的情况 下，公司暂时没有铝代铜计划。 | 间:请问目前外面热议空调吕换铜,以小米为代表的生产的空调将用铝代替铜从而节省成本,公司的 | 空调是否 ...

金田股份 20251225 摘要 铝代铜趋势确立：铜铝价差扩大至接近 1:5，技术问题逐步解决，铝代 铜不再是概念，而是实际落地，尤其在空调行业，国内外企业积极探索 应用。 空调行业应用进展：海外企业如大金在微通道扁管和平行流板式换热器 技术上领先，国内主流方向是内螺纹圆形铝管替代铜管，但耐腐蚀、换 热及排水问题仍需解决。 铝代铜面临挑战：下游厂商需承担设备改造成本，消费者对铝材质认知 存在偏差，可能被误解为偷工减料，美的、小米等联合声明旨在推动变 革。 内螺纹铝管替代前景：预计未来几年内逐步替代，各方协同推进有望在 两三年内完成，国家政策支持减少对进口资源依赖，加速替代进程。 铜铝价格比影响：国内铜铝价格比达历史最高 4.3，显著影响成本控制， 每台空调用铝替代铜可降低成本约 400 元，在中低端空调市场更具吸引 力。 Q&A 请介绍一下铝代铜的背景和现状。 铝代铜并不是一个新概念。铜具有导电、导热和导信号的特性，而在所有金属 中，铝的这些特性相对接近铜。尽管铝是一种下位替代材料，其成本较低，但 其耐腐蚀性和焊接性能不如铜，且导热性能也稍逊一筹。因此，尽管过去有很 多替代方案，如铝包铜、钢包铜等，但这些方案 ...

长虹美菱（000521.SZ）12月25日在投资者互动平台表示，公司空调产业以下属子公司四川长虹空调有 限公司及中山长虹电器有限公司为平台开展相关业务。经过多年发展，公司始终坚持以用户为中心，以 技术创新为驱动，通过持续优化产品品质和服务来提升用户体验。敬请广大投资者注意投资风险，理性 投资。 （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：最近空调行业热议铝代铜，请问长虹美菱在这方面有 没有技术储备，有没有领先的技术优势？ ...

摘要 铜价高企推动铝代铜趋势，铝材成本优势显著，1.5 匹空调单台可节省 300 元以上，但耐腐蚀性、焊接性和能效比是技术瓶颈。 金田股份计划建设国际先进水平的全自动化内螺纹铝管生产线，并改造 现有铜管产线，以应对市场对铝管的需求增长。 空调厂商对铝代铜持积极态度，但消费者接受度是关键，需行业共同推 动以避免品牌损失。预计中低端空调将率先采用铝材。 目前空调行业铝管使用量极低，2025 年占比不足 5%，铝管渗透率取决 于下游产线改造速度，美的、海尔等厂商的切换将加速渗透。 铜管生产线切换至铝管需 12-16 个月，产能将减少 40%-50%，与单台 空调用铝量减少比例相符，产线切换成本较高且不可逆。 内螺纹圆形铝合金替代内螺纹圆形纯铜是主流技术路线，对现有结构设 计影响小。微通道技术虽成熟，但在家用空调领域应用受限。 商用和海外市场铝材应用推进速度快于国内家用市场，日韩主流厂商虽 仍以铜为主，但已进行样品验证。预计未来 3-5 年，1/3 至 1/2 铜管将 被铝管替代。 Q&A 金田股份 20251224 未来几年内，您如何看待空调用料趋势的发展？ 空调行业目前面临哪些主要挑战，如何利用高效管理实现轻量化 ...