登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：郝一凡 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾——美国关税政策再遇反复 1、当地时间5月28日，美国国际贸易法院阻止了美国总统特朗普依据《国际紧急经 济权力法案》而宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越权。 2、当地时间5月29日，美国联邦上诉法院批准了特朗普政府的请求，暂时中止此前 一家下级法院禁止执行美政府多个关税行政令的裁决。白宫高级贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦 罗周四在对记者发表讲话时承诺，总统将继续寻找实施关税政策的途径，无论法院 是否裁决总统援引的最初授权合法 报告正文共计2013字 链接报告 总体来看，美国关税政策遭遇阻力，但预计最终特朗普团队仍将继续实施关税政 策，后续关税相关谈判、博弈仍有反复的可能。 02 周度行情回顾 (5.26-6.1) 债市先抑后扬 月末资金利率回升，受美国国际贸易法院叫停特朗普关税影响，十年期国债收益率一度 回升至1.7%，但24小时内美国联邦上诉法院暂时恢复关税政策，收益率冲高回落。 A股弱势震荡 A股震荡调整，抱团风格延续。 ... 3、国家统计局5月31日发布数据：5月，制造业采购经理指数（ ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May is reported at 49.5%, indicating an improvement in economic activity compared to the previous month [1] - New export orders index increased to 47.5%, up by 2.8 percentage points from last month, reflecting a recovery in foreign trade orders [1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a faster pace of production activities in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 2 - The large enterprises PMI stands at 50.7%, up by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, signaling a positive trend in large-scale manufacturing [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, indicating a stable development trend [2] - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.5%, reflecting stable confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [2] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating ongoing economic recovery [3] - The service industry business activity index increased to 50.2%, up by 0.1 percentage points, driven by the effects of the May Day holiday [4] - Significant recovery in business activity indices for sectors such as railway transport, air transport, accommodation, and catering, all remaining in the expansion zone [4]

Group 1 - In May, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China rose to 49.5%, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment and economic stability [1] - Both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector showed recovery, with the production index exceeding 50%, signaling accelerated manufacturing activities [3] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI has remained in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, indicating a positive development trend [3] Group 2 - The production and new order indices for industries such as agricultural processing, specialized equipment, and aerospace have exceeded 54%, reflecting rapid growth in supply and demand [4] - The PMI for large enterprises has rebounded above 50%, showing a swift recovery, while small enterprises also experienced significant improvements, demonstrating the resilience of the Chinese economy [6] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for May was 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, with positive performances in investment, consumption, and export-related sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in May shows signs of recovery, indicating the effectiveness of proactive macro policies, while the non-manufacturing sector continues to expand, laying a solid foundation for economic recovery [1][3][9]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.4%, up by 0.2 percentage points [1]. - Key sub-indices such as production, new orders, and procurement have shown improvement, with increases ranging from 0.2 to 3.7 percentage points [3]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 50.9%, marking four consecutive months of growth [2][3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.3%, maintaining above the expansion threshold for five consecutive months [9]. - Significant growth in new orders and export orders in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors, with new export orders rising over 5 and 3 percentage points respectively [4][10]. Price Indices - The purchasing price index for manufacturing is at 46.9%, and the factory price index is at 44.7%, both showing a slight decrease but with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [6]. - The overall market price decline has slowed, indicating a potential stabilization in demand and production [6]. Employment and Investment - Production investment is showing signs of recovery, contributing to an improving employment situation [7]. - The focus is on activating the domestic market and achieving the goal of expanding domestic demand to support economic circulation [7]. Economic Outlook - The overall economic operation shows a foundation for continued recovery, supported by stable non-manufacturing activities and positive performance in investment, consumption, and exports [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in May shows signs of recovery, indicating an overall expansion in China's economy, while the non-manufacturing sector remains stable but slightly declines [1][6][8]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][3]. - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activities [5]. - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, with production and new order indices at 51.5% and 52.5%, respectively [5]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while energy-intensive industries show lower activity with a PMI of 47.0% [5][6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [8][11]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday [10]. - The construction industry remains in expansion with a business activity index of 51.0%, although it has slightly decreased from the previous month [10][11]. Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for May is at 52.5%, reflecting stable confidence among manufacturing enterprises [6]. - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.5%, indicating ongoing optimism among service providers [10].

国家统计局数据显示，5月份非制造业商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出 指数为50.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In May, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][2] - The production index reached 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity, while the new orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points [2] - Large enterprises saw their PMI rise to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, with production and new orders indices at 51.5% and 52.5%, respectively [2] Group 2: High-Tech and Export Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stood at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also showed improvement [3] - New export orders and import indices increased to 47.5% and 47.1%, respectively, reflecting a recovery in foreign trade orders, particularly from companies engaged with the U.S. market [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion [4] - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday, with significant growth in transportation and hospitality sectors [4] - The construction sector maintained expansion with a business activity index of 51.0%, although it showed a slight decline from the previous month [4] Group 4: Composite PMI Overview - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in production and business activities across sectors [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.7% and 50.3%, respectively [6]

Group 1: Service Trade Performance - In Q1 2025, China's service trade totalled 19,741.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [3] - Service exports reached 8,351.5 billion yuan, growing by 12.2%, while imports were 11,390.3 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [3] - The service trade deficit was 3,038.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 244.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 7,524.9 billion yuan, up 2.6%, with significant contributions from business services and telecommunications [3] - Travel services saw the highest growth, with total imports and exports reaching 5,849 billion yuan, a 21.8% increase, and exports surged by 97.5% [3] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [5] - The production index was at 49.8%, reflecting a slight slowdown in manufacturing production [6] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decrease in market demand for manufactured goods [7] - The raw materials inventory index dropped to 47.0%, indicating a reduction in the inventory levels of key raw materials [8] - The employment index was at 47.9%, showing a decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector [9] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% in April 2025, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion [10] - The construction sector's business activity index was 51.9%, while the services sector's index was 50.1%, both showing a decline from the previous month [10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 44.9%, indicating a drop in market demand [10] - The input prices index was at 47.8%, suggesting a decrease in the overall price level of inputs used in non-manufacturing activities [11] - The business activity expectations index remained optimistic at 56.0%, despite a slight decline [11] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2% in April 2025, down 1.2 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in production activities [13]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in April dropped to 49%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, reflecting a stable economic foundation despite external uncertainties [1][5]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points in April, attributed to external environmental changes and seasonal factors, as March is typically a peak season for manufacturing [1][2]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was significantly higher than the new export orders index, indicating stable domestic demand despite a decline in export orders [2]. - High-tech manufacturing sectors continued to expand, showing resilience in production activities [5]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating stable expansion [3]. - The construction sector showed robust activity, particularly in infrastructure, with the civil engineering business activity index rising over 5 percentage points to above 60% [3]. - Consumer sectors, including travel and leisure, experienced increased activity, with indices for air transport and entertainment rising above 55% and 51% respectively [3]. Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index was at 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating overall production expansion [5]. - Experts suggest that despite short-term disruptions from global uncertainties, the economic foundation remains solid, supported by a large domestic market and effective policy measures [2][4]. - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing remained high at over 56%, reflecting optimism among enterprises regarding future market conditions [4][6].

4月30日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，4月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个 百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 另外，受市场需求不足和近期部分大宗商品价格持续下行等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂 价格指数分别为47.0%和44.8%，均比上月下降，制造业市场价格总体水平有所下降。文韬表示，4月份 供需整体的偏弱运行带动了原材料和产成品价格加快下行。 不可否认，外贸环境变化给我国制造业带来一定扰动，市场需求和企业生产短期有所放缓，原材料采 购、市场价格等方面也有所波动，但也要看到我国经济底座依然稳固，超大规模市场、完备产业链供应 链体系等优势持续发挥作用，前期出台以及增量可期的一系列有力有效的宏观经济政策能够护航经济行 稳致远。赵庆河也谈到，虽然4月份制造业PMI有所回落，但高技术制造业等相关行业继续保持扩张， 以内销为主的制造业企业生产经营总体稳定。 从重点行业看，高技术制造业持续向好。高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平，其生 产指数和新订单指数均位于52.0%及以上。生产经营活动预期指数 ...