华安证券主要观点如下： 总量 全球AI技术正从训练主导转向推理主导，驱动硬件产业链迎来新一轮成长机遇多模态大模型如谷歌 Gemini 3 Pro、OpenAISora 2的迭代，以及AIAgent的规模化落地，显著提升了推理算力需求。在这一趋 势推动下，云服务提供商持续上调资本开支，预计2025年全球八大CSP资本开支将达4310亿美元，同比 增长65%，2026年有望进一步增至6020亿美元。与此同时，各国主权AI计划纷纷启动，例如美国"星际 之门"计划投资约5000亿美元，欧盟拟投入215亿美元建设AI超级工厂，这些举措共同推动全球AI基础 设施步入高景气建设周期。据预测，到2030年，全球AI数据中心容量将达156GW，占数据中心总需求 的71%。 云侧 PCB：AI服务器带来明确的价值量提升，例如英伟达DGXH100单GPU对应PCB价值量达211美元，较前 代提升21%；GB200 NVL72更是将单GPU价值量推高至346美元。随着Rubin架构采用无缆化设计，以及 交换机向800G/1.6T演进，PCB正朝着高层数、使用如M9等低介电材料的更高性能方向升级。与此同 时，2026年国内高端PCB产 ...

OpenAI发言人证实了这一调整，称基于用户反馈，免费及Go用户更偏好默认的流畅聊天体验。尽管 OpenAI仍计划在技术完善后重新推出该功能，且付费用户仍可使用，但此次回撤表明，科技巨头在将 高成本、高延迟的尖端模型整合进大规模消费级产品时，正面临"性能与速度"博弈的严峻挑战。 OpenAI悄然逆转了其针对大众用户的核心产品策略，撤回了旨在提升回答精度的自动"模型路由器"系 统，转而通过更快的响应速度来挽留用户。这一举措突显了在竞争激烈的AI聊天机器人市场中，先进 的"推理"能力与即时响应的消费者需求之间存在着难以调和的矛盾。 据WIRED报道，OpenAI已在免费版及每月5美元的订阅层级中取消了"模型路由器"功能，用户将默认使 用响应速度更快、服务成本更低的GPT-5.2 Instant模型。此前，该系统旨在自动分析用户提问，并将复 杂问题分流至更强大但处理较慢的"推理"模型，而现在普通用户必须手动切换才能使用这些高级功能。 知情人士透露，这一逆转主要源于其对业务指标的冲击：路由系统的延迟对日活跃用户产生了负面影 响。尽管推理模型代表了AI性能的前沿，但其处理复杂问题时可能耗时数分钟，导致不愿等待的大众 用 ...

Core Insights - Apple is deepening its "vertical integration" strategy by developing its first self-designed AI server chip, codenamed "Baltra," in collaboration with Broadcom, aiming to reduce reliance on Nvidia chips [1][2] - The "Baltra" chip is specifically designed for "AI inference," focusing on executing tasks rather than training large-scale AI models, with Apple opting to rent Google's custom Gemini model for $1 billion annually [1] - The architecture of "Baltra" will differ significantly from traditional training chips, emphasizing low latency and high concurrent throughput, with a focus on optimizing low-precision mathematical operations to reduce energy consumption and enhance user response speed [2] Company and Industry Summary - The collaboration with Broadcom is crucial for overcoming core network transmission technology challenges, with the chip expected to be operational by 2027 [1] - The chip is likely to utilize TSMC's advanced 3nm "N3E" process, with design work anticipated to be completed within the next 12 months [2] - The strategic focus on inference rather than training aligns with industry trends towards optimizing AI performance for user-facing applications [2]

摩根大通预计存储芯片迎史上最长景气周期：头部厂商市值今年逼近万亿美元，2027年将飙至1.5万亿，涨幅超50%。 HBM需求持续挤占传统DRAM产能，AI推理对内存消耗是训练3倍，供需缺口将延续至2027年。预测2026财年DRAM价 格暴涨53%，企业级市场强劲将完全抵消消费端压力。 摩根大通在最新研报中指出，当前头部存储芯片制造商的总市值已接近1万亿美元。基于历史估值中枢推算，到2027年这 一数字将飙升至1.5万亿美元，意味着头部厂商仍有超过50%的上涨空间。 市场正在经历"双轨制"定价。B2B（企业级/AI）需求强劲支撑价格高位，而B2C（消费级）则面临周期性压力。但整体而 言，服务器端的需求上行将完全抵消消费端的下行风险。 估值重塑：向1.5万亿美元进军 摩根大通在报告中直击投资者痛点： 在存储股过去三个月大幅上涨并逼近1万亿美元市值大关后，下一步怎么走？ 摩根大通给出的答案非常明确： 继续做多。 基于"市值/市场规模（TAM）"的估值框架，摩根大通预测2027年存储市场规模将达到约4200亿美元。取2018年和2021 年周期的市销率（P/S）中值3.5倍计算，头部存储及内存制造商的合计市值有望 ...

软件ETF（515230）跟踪的是软件指数（H30202），该指数从市场中选取涉及软件开发、销售和服务等 业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖操作系统、应用软件、网络安全等领域的代表性企业，以反映 软件行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数具有显著的成长性和技术导向性，能够较好地体现软件 行业的市场趋势和发展动态。 东吴证券表示，AI推理要求小数据块、高并发和大存储容量，现有以CPU为中心的传统架构难以满足需 求。因此，提出将控制和数据路径移至GPU，通过GPU直接连接SSD来提高存储量和传输速率，并利用 SCADA软件架构控制存储I/O。这促使底层硬件变革带动软件重构，形成以GPU为中心的新架构。预计 2027年初将推出首款搭载HBF技术的AI推理系统，同时Hammerspace和CloudianHyperStore已开始优化软 件性能。数据库产业有望因GPU直连SSD架构的创新迎来新的发展机遇。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the total market capitalization of leading storage chip manufacturers is approaching $1 trillion, with projections suggesting it could rise to $1.5 trillion by 2027, indicating over 50% upside potential for these companies [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The current cycle is expected to be the longest and strongest storage upcycle in history, with concerns about oversupply in DRAM due to new capacities in 2027 deemed unnecessary by Morgan Stanley's data models [2][5]. - The market is experiencing a "dual-track" pricing system, where strong B2B (enterprise/AI) demand supports high prices, while B2C (consumer) faces cyclical pressures [2][9]. Valuation Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that the storage market size will reach approximately $420 billion by 2027, with a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 3.5x based on historical cycles, leading to a potential market capitalization of $1.5 trillion for leading storage manufacturers [3][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Despite concerns about new wafer fabs leading to oversupply, Morgan Stanley's analysis suggests that DRAM supply growth will lag behind demand growth due to structural demand from AI and HBM [5][6]. - The supply-demand gap is expected to remain, with a projected shortfall of 3% to 5% in 2027, despite new capacities coming online [9]. Pricing Trends - Strong CSP (Cloud Service Provider) demand is expected to lead to a significant allocation of capacity to HBM, increasing its share of total DRAM capacity from 19% in 2025 to 28% in 2027 [9]. - DRAM average selling prices (ASP) are projected to surge by 53% in FY26, with NAND ASP increasing by approximately 30% [18]. AI and Technology Drivers - The rise of AI is driving demand for HBM and enterprise SSDs (eSSD), with AI servers requiring three times the SSD capacity of regular servers [17]. - HBM supply is expected to remain constrained, with a projected shortfall of 8% to 12% continuing through 2027 and possibly into 2028 [19]. Capital Expenditure Trends - While storage manufacturers are announcing capacity expansion plans, actual bit supply growth is expected to be challenged by physical migration issues [24]. - Equipment spending for storage wafer fabs is anticipated to grow significantly, outpacing overall capital expenditure growth [24].

截至2025年12月15日 09:48，中证数字经济主题指数下跌0.71%。成分股中微公司领涨，北方华创、华润微跟涨；纳思达领跌，澜起科技、拓荆科技跟跌。 数字经济ETF(560800)下修调整。（文中所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的 投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化，投资需谨慎） 消息方面，随着Token调用量持续攀升，在全球AI推理需求快速增长的驱动下，海外CSP进一步加大算力基础设施投入，AI推理相关资本开支持续上行。 25Q3海外四大CSP的资本开支合计979亿美元，qoq+10%，延续了季度间上升的趋势。相较之下，国内整体算力资本开支仍处于追赶阶段。尽管国内CSP与 海外巨头在投入总量上仍存在一定差距，但从Token调用量与业务规模来看，字节等头部厂商已接近谷歌体量。 东海证券指出，国产GPU企业在技术积累和生态构建方面与国际领先企业仍有差距，但已实现单芯片支持AI计算、图形渲染等技术突破。当前电子行业需 求持续复苏，供给有效出清，国产化力度超预期，半导体设备、关键零部件和存储涨价等环节存在结构性机会。（文中所列示的行业 ...

12月12日下午，A股三大指数集体上涨，上证指数盘中上涨0.17%，电子、通信、国防军工等板块涨幅 靠前，综合、商贸零售跌幅居前。芯片科技股走强，截至13点04分，芯片ETF（159995.SZ）上涨 1.72%，其成分股拓荆科技上涨9.37%，龙芯中科上涨6.42%，北京君正上涨5.63%，豪威集团上涨 4.48%，中微公司上涨4.02%。 消息方面，随着Token调用量持续攀升，在全球AI推理需求快速增长的驱动下，海外CSP进一步加大算 力基础设施投入，AI推理相关资本开支持续上行。25Q3海外四大CSP的资本开支合计979亿美元， qoq+10%，延续了季度间上升的趋势。相较之下，国内整体算力资本开支仍处于追赶阶段。尽管国内 CSP与海外巨头在投入总量上仍存在一定差距，但从Token调用量与业务规模来看，字节等头部厂商已 接近谷歌体量。 东吴证券表示，整体来看，国产先进制程扩产稳步推进叠加产业链自主可控进展加速，将显著增强国内 算力产业的供给保障能力。在AI推理和训练需求持续提升的背景下，国产算力厂商有望充分受益，业 绩释放可期。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the electronic industry, indicating an expected relative performance that exceeds the benchmark index by over 10% [2][32][34]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that AI inference is driving innovation, with a focus on demand-driven Opex-related sectors, particularly in storage, power, ASIC, and ultra-node technologies [2][26][27]. - The electronic industry has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Electronic Index rising by 1.09% this week and 42.15% year-to-date, ranking 3rd among 31 sectors [10][11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The overall market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.26%. The Shenwan Electronic Index's performance was ranked 13th among 31 sectors this week [10][11]. Weekly Insights - The report highlights the semiconductor equipment market, noting that China remains the top region for semiconductor equipment sales, with a total of $145.6 billion in Q3 2025 [21][22]. - It also discusses the anticipated growth in storage capacity, particularly with new products from Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies, which are expected to drive expansion in the domestic storage industry [26]. Focus Areas - **Storage**: The report suggests a significant opportunity in the domestic storage industry, driven by increased demand for SSDs and HBM products [26]. - **Power**: It highlights the importance of new technologies in both the generation and consumption sides of the power industry, recommending specific companies for investment [27]. - **ASIC**: The report anticipates an increase in ASIC market share, focusing on key domestic and international CSP manufacturers [27]. - **Ultra-node**: It predicts growth in high-speed interconnects, cabinet manufacturing, liquid cooling, and PCB demand, with specific companies identified for potential investment [27][28]. Related Research - The report references several related studies that support the ongoing trends in AI computing and storage capabilities, indicating a strong outlook for the semiconductor and electronic sectors [4][21].

选自A.I News Hub 机器之心编译 英伟达的「护城河」正在崩塌？谷歌TPU凭什么让巨头们疯狂倒戈？ 摩根士丹利直接把预测往上猛调， 2027 年 TPU 产量将达到 500 万块，2028 年更是要冲到 700 万块 。要知 道，之前的预测可是 300 万块和 320 万块，这波上调幅度分别高达 67% 和 120%。换句话说，未来两年谷歌 要生产 1200 万块 TPU，而过去四年加起来才生产了 790 万块。 这笔生意有多赚？摩根士丹利给出一个测算， 谷歌每卖出 50 万块 TPU 芯片，2027 年就能进账约 130 亿美 元，每股收益增加 0.40 美元 。 战略层面看，谷歌的打法也很明确，直接向第三方数据中心销售 TPU，作为谷歌云平台 (GCP) 业务的重要 补充。虽然大部分 TPU 仍会用在谷歌自家的 AI 训练和云服务上，但如此大的产能储备，显然是在为更广 泛的商业化做准备。 摩根士丹利认为，这些迹象都是谷歌 TPU 销售战略的早期信号。眼下全行业对先进 AI 算力需求爆棚，谷 歌显然不想错过这波红利。 受 AI 芯片需求强劲的影响，摩根士丹利顺手把联发科评级上调至「增持」，理由是整个 ...