Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Symposium this year highlighted the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Powell indicating a potential interest rate cut in September, amidst conflicting economic signals and political pressures [5][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Signals and Fed's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is grappling with inflation above the 2% target and signs of a weakening labor market, creating a complex environment for decision-making [5][6]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted the conflicting signals and the difficulty of timing policy changes during transitional periods [6]. - Powell's remarks suggested that tariffs are impacting prices, but the long-term effects on inflation remain uncertain [7]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Political pressure on the Fed is intensifying, particularly from President Trump, who is advocating for rate cuts and threatening to dismiss officials over controversies [6][7]. - The atmosphere at the symposium was notably tense, with increased security measures reflecting the heightened scrutiny of the Fed's actions [6]. Group 3: Fed's Policy Framework - Powell introduced a new framework aimed at guiding the Fed's approach to achieving inflation and employment targets, marking a shift from previous strategies [8]. - This new strategy emphasizes the importance of an independent Federal Reserve in addressing economic challenges effectively [9][10]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - Following Powell's speech, the euro strengthened against the dollar, raising concerns about potential downward risks to inflation in the Eurozone [11]. - The interconnectedness of the U.S. economy with global markets means that a slowdown in U.S. growth could have significant implications for other economies [11].

新华社北京8月26日电 美国总统特朗普25日说，他已解除美国联邦储备委员会理事莉萨·库克的职 务。美国消费者新闻与商业频道评论，美国总统直接罢免美联储理事史无前例，标志着特朗普因美联储 拒绝下调利率而对该机构"独立性"发起的攻击进一步升级。 美国金融服务机构雷蒙德—詹姆斯公司董事总经理爱德华·米尔斯说，特朗普解雇库克的举动对美 联储独立性而言"史无前例"，表明白宫正不断升级其对货币政策决策的压力。 米尔斯说："市场可能将此视为对美联储独立性的攻击，从而加剧未来政策走向的不确定性。" 受特朗普解雇库克的消息影响，现货黄金价格26日创两周来新高，美元指数一度回落。 她说："我不会辞职，将继续履行协助美国经济发展的职能，正如我自2022年以来所做的那样。" 库克是美联储首名非洲裔女性理事，由拜登提名上任。美国联邦住房金融署署长比尔·普尔特20日 公开指认库克曾同时将两处房产申报为其"主要住宅"以获取更优惠贷款利率，普尔特同时向司法部提交 一份刑事指控。特朗普当天晚些时候在社交媒体上转发相关报道并称"库克必须辞职"。21日，美司法部 表示将对库克展开调查。（卜晓明） 泽沃斯说，美联储主席鲍威尔在前总统约瑟夫·拜登任期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dismissal of Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board by former President Trump, highlighting the legal and political implications of this action, as well as the potential motivations behind it [1][4][7]. Group 1: Dismissal Details - Trump claims authority under the U.S. Constitution and the Federal Reserve Act to remove Cook from her position [1]. - Cook, the first African American woman on the Federal Reserve Board, intends to continue her duties in stabilizing the U.S. economy despite the dismissal [4]. - The Federal Reserve Act stipulates that a Federal Reserve Board member can only be dismissed for "cause," which has historically not been applied to any sitting member [6]. Group 2: Political Context - Cook's questioning of Trump's tariff policies, which she believes could harm U.S. productivity, is seen as a key reason for her dismissal [7]. - The potential reshaping of the Federal Reserve by Trump is discussed, with implications for monetary policy and the independence of the institution [11]. - The dismissal occurs amid ongoing debates between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions, with Cook voting to maintain the current rate, contrary to the administration's preferences [11]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, all nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, with Cook's term expected to last until January 31, 2038 [8]. - Trump's ability to reshape the Federal Reserve through such dismissals is questioned, as the current chair, Powell, was also nominated by Trump [10]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized, with legal procedures required for a presidential dismissal, indicating that Trump's actions may serve as a warning to other board members [12].

Group 1 - President Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the potential political influence on monetary policy [1] - Market reactions have been muted, with short-term Treasury yields slightly declining, while the 30-year Treasury yield increased by 4.7 basis points to 4.936% due to expectations of forced monetary easing leading to inflation [1] - Investors are cautious about shorting the dollar or U.S. assets, as significant investments from trade agreements with Europe, Japan, and South Korea could support the dollar and U.S. stock markets [1] Group 2 - Trump's actions have undermined confidence in U.S. sovereign debt as a safe investment and diminished the dollar's unique advantages, which have historically allowed the U.S. to finance its $36 trillion national debt [2] - There has been a steady outflow of foreign capital from U.S. markets, with global equity funds (excluding the U.S.) receiving substantial inflows since May, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] - The dollar index has declined by 9% this year, and while U.S. stock markets have reached record highs, their gains have lagged behind other markets driven by technology and AI [2]

Group 1 - European stocks experienced a significant decline, with the French CAC 40 index dropping over 2% following the announcement of a confidence vote by the French Prime Minister on September 8, leading to a 9 basis points increase in the yield of French 10-year government bonds [1][5] - The U.S. long-term Treasury bonds faced selling pressure, resulting in a steepening yield curve, as concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve intensified due to President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook [1][2][3] - Global market tensions are rising, with Wall Street's initial optimism regarding potential Fed rate cuts fading, as traders prepare for possibly unfavorable inflation data later in the week [4] Group 2 - The political crisis in France is impacting market sentiment, with the announcement of a confidence vote causing a drop in bond prices to their lowest since March [5] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, marking the fastest annual growth in five months, which could further influence market dynamics [5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.1%, while the euro rose by 0.2% to 1.1638 USD, indicating fluctuations in currency markets amid the ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [4]

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普试图罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克——此举受到法律质疑，并且库克 此后在一份声明中强调特朗普无权这么做，且她不会辞职。对于特朗普最新的这一威胁言论，华尔街分 析师们普遍认为，这与其说是针对库克本人，不如说是彻底针对美联储货币政策独立性。 如果库克离职，特朗普可能掌控四个美联储FOMC货币政策委员会席位，距离"彻底掌控美联储货币政 策"将更近一步。由于市场普遍预期特朗普将任命立场更为鸽派的人选接替库克，消息传出后，美元全 线走软，短期美债收益率下跌，在美联储独立性受到威胁之下，市场避险情绪以及对于高估值科技巨头 们的恐慌情绪大幅升温，推动避险资产黄金以及白银受到市场避险资金热切追捧，尤其是当前黄金现货 与期货价格距离创下历史新高可谓越来越近。。 黄金资产的市场结构层面，盛宝银行称，全球央行主导的官方部门买盘仍是市场的无声支柱，而各国储 备管理者们近期因"美国例外论"逐渐崩塌而倾向"多元化资产"与提升对制裁相关的韧性而增加了黄金与 白银配置。 独立溢价 "无论法律结果如何，信号都很明确：美联储所面临的来自特朗普政府的政治压力正在上升，随着时间 推移，它可能会在美国资产中引入一种所谓的" ...

【文/观察者网 陈思佳】当地时间8月25日，美国总统特朗普以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由，宣布解除 美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook）的职务。随后，库克发表声明，称特朗普无权解雇她，将继续履 职。 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）26日报道称，在美联储111年历史里，这是首次有美国总统试图解雇美联 储理事。特朗普"史无前例"的举动表明，他与美联储之间的矛盾正迅速升级。特朗普重返白宫后一直要 求美联储降息，但美联储还是连续八个月维持利率不变。 库克的律师已经表示："我们将采取一切必要措施，阻止他（特朗普）试图采取的非法行动"。 尚不清楚库克是否会离开美联储，特朗普的命令可能在法庭上遭到质疑，甚至可能上诉到美国最高法 院。但如果库克的职位被解除，特朗普可能有机会提名其他人填补库克的席位。 此前，拜登提名的另一名美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）意外提前辞职，为特朗普提 供了机会。特朗普已任命其重要经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）填补该空缺。库格勒任期原本 将于2026年1月31日结束，预计米兰将完成其剩下任期。 特朗普25日在社交媒体上发布了一封给库克的信，他写道："鉴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of former President Trump's actions against the Federal Reserve, suggesting that his attempts to undermine its independence could threaten the stability of the U.S. dollar and the broader financial system [1][5][10]. Group 1: Trump's Actions and Motivations - Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, to lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy and reduce debt costs ahead of the midterm elections [1][4][10]. - The urgency behind Trump's actions is linked to rising inflation and unemployment in the U.S., as well as the significant national debt of $36 trillion, which incurs over $1 trillion in interest annually [4][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to prevent financial crises, designed to be an independent entity that balances power between the government and private banks [7][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar and preventing inflation, as historical instances of political interference have led to severe economic consequences [9][11]. Group 3: Potential Consequences - Trump's actions could lead to a loss of confidence in the Federal Reserve, prompting global investors to sell off U.S. dollars and bonds, which could destabilize the financial system [10][12]. - The article warns that undermining the Federal Reserve's independence for personal political gain could have dire repercussions, as seen in past instances where political pressure led to rampant inflation [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining financial market stability and economic health, and any erosion of this independence could have profound and multifaceted impacts on both domestic and global financial markets [1][4]. Impact on US Financial Markets - Dollar depreciation and capital outflow may occur if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised, leading to a decline in the dollar's safe-haven status and potential capital flight to more stable regions [4]. - Bond market turmoil and rising yields are expected as market confidence in the Federal Reserve's decisions diminishes, potentially leading to a "stock-bond-currency triple whammy" scenario where simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds occur due to fears of inflation [2][4]. - The market's skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's independence could drive up U.S. Treasury yields as investors demand higher risk premiums amid increased policy uncertainty [4]. Spillover Effects on Global Financial Markets - Emerging markets may face significant pressure as capital flows reverse, leading to currency depreciation and increased asset price volatility [4]. - A restructuring of the global financial order could be prompted by the erosion of the dollar's dominance, accelerating the process of "de-dollarization" and increasing the international use of currencies like the euro and yuan [4]. Long-term Economic and Institutional Impacts - The risk of stagflation may rise if political interference leads to monetary policy that deviates from data-driven principles, undermining long-term growth potential [2][5]. - The credibility of central banks could be damaged, leading to regulatory challenges and a loss of effectiveness in oversight [3][5]. Market Reactions and Investor Strategies - Investors are beginning to adjust their strategies, such as shorting the dollar and betting on interest rate cuts, while closely monitoring personnel changes and policy signals from the Federal Reserve [8]. - Central bank reserve managers are reportedly reducing dollar investments due to the deteriorating political environment in the U.S., opting for diversified reserve assets instead [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the fundamentals remain unchanged, demand is at the end of the off - season, and there is no upward driving force. With short - term large - scale fluctuations being unlikely, it is advisable to focus on range trading [9] - For lithium carbonate, the market is close to the peak season, with demand providing support at the bottom and limited decline. However, it is easily affected by industry news, so cautious operation is recommended [11] - For crude oil, although the price has rebounded, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. It is recommended to sell on rallies [12] - For asphalt, with both supply and demand being weak and the cost - side support strengthening, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [14] - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread [15][16] - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17] - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward due to its own fundamental pressure [19] - For coking coal, the market sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals have no significant changes, with the price oscillating at a high level [20] - For urea, it is in a weak consolidation stage. It is advisable to short on rebounds in the short term, and there is support at the bottom [22] Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 26, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Peanut, log, and 20 - gauge rubber rose slightly. Alumina and coking coal dropped by over 3%, while industrial silicon, container shipping to Europe, coke, and polysilicon dropped by over 2%. Glass, soda ash, and styrene dropped nearly 2%. Among stock index futures, IF dropped 0.22%, IH dropped 0.40%, IC rose 0.17%, and IM dropped 0.10%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.47% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on August 26, in terms of capital inflow in domestic futures main contracts, alumina 2601 had an inflow of 373 million, Shanghai copper 2510 had an inflow of 332 million, and 30 - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 196 million. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.638 billion, CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.034 billion, and CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 3.377 billion [7] Analysis of Specific Varieties Copper - Supply: Codelco adjusted its production target downward. The port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The sulfuric acid price is high, supporting smelter profits. The production of refined copper is expected to remain stable in the short term, but there may be production cuts in the later third quarter [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm, with new orders increasing but market trading volume decreasing. The real estate sector is a drag, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience [9] - Inventory: The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short - term demand [9] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Supply: The production from August to September is expected to decline by 15% year - on - year. Yichun Yinli has resumed production, but CATL has not [11] - Demand: After the price correction, downstream purchasing sentiment has been stimulated, and there is support at the bottom [11] Crude Oil - Inventory: EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and gasoline has decreased more than expected [12] - Production: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [12] - Price: Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September [12] Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has decreased, and the planned production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous month [14] - Demand: Affected by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures, the demand is weak [14] PP - Supply: The new capacity of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP is planned to be put into production in August, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly [15] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, but there may be an improvement during the peak season [15] Plastic - Supply: The new capacity of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into operation at the end of July, and the plastic production rate has increased [17] - Demand: The agricultural film is gradually emerging from the off - season, but the raw material replenishment is not strong [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate has decreased, and new capacities are being put into production [18][19] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and the export outlook is not optimistic [18][19] Coking Coal - Supply: The import volume in July increased significantly, and the domestic production has rebounded [20] - Demand: The downstream coke production enthusiasm has improved, but the steel mill profits have weakened [20] Urea - Supply: The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans this week, with production expected to decrease [21] - Demand: The industrial demand has some resilience, but is affected by environmental protection restrictions. The inventory is at a high level [21][22]