多位与会人士认为，中国经济长期向好趋势不变，金融业高水平对外开放稳步推进，人民币国际化步伐 加快，将推动熊猫债市场继续扩容。 在新开发银行司库及资金投资局融资负责人董理乐看来，中国金融管理部门对熊猫债的发行机制、资金 使用等方面不断进行优化，为发行人提供便利，熊猫债在市场上的流动性也不断提高。 "中国债券市场展现出高度的稳定性和开放性，为境外发行人营造了一个更清晰透明可操作的发行环 境。"汇丰银行（中国）有限公司副行长唐臻怡在研讨会上表示，由于中国债券利率水平低于美元和欧 元债券，熊猫债融资成本优势持续强化，为熊猫债发行提供难得的窗口期。 去年11月，巴西纸浆生产商书赞桉诺集团成功发行12亿元绿色熊猫债。书赞桉诺中国业务与战略全球执 行副总裁马欣荣说："用熊猫债进行融资，标志着我们进入中国债券市场，将有助于建立更平衡更有竞 争力的企业资本结构。" 新华财经北京5月14日电 (记者任军、吴雨）今年前四个月，熊猫债累计发行规模622亿元，继续保持快 速增长势头。14日下午，在一场主题为"深化金融开放共创中拉合作新篇章"的中拉熊猫债研讨会上，记 者获悉了这样一则数据。 "近年来，中国金融高水平开放不断深化，熊猫债市 ...

据了解，熊猫债是境外机构在中国境内发行的以人民币计价的债券。在有利的政策及市场环境下，近年 来熊猫债市场不断提质扩容，市场规模屡创新高，展现出全球资本对人民币资产的信心与青睐。 回顾市场发展历程，2005年，国际金融公司、亚洲开发银行在银行间债券市场试点发行人民币债券，熊 猫债市场正式启动。 2015年以来，为进一步扩大人民币跨境使用，推进人民币加入特别提款权货币篮子进程，人民银行会同 财政部等相关部门加大熊猫债市场推进力度，2016年熊猫债年发行规模一举跃升至约1300亿元。 新华财经北京5月14日电（记者翟卓）记者14日获悉，今年前四个月，熊猫债已累计发行622亿元，继续 保持快速增长势头。 有市场人士表示，一方面，近年来我国债券利率水平相对较低，熊猫债融资成本优势持续强化，不少发 行人已经将熊猫债作为境外直接获取人民币的重要融资渠道。 另一方面，人民银行持续推动优化熊猫债发行管理，在发行机制、信息披露、可持续发展、资金使用等 方面不断为境外发行人提供便利，市场创新持续深化，也进一步巩固了熊猫债的吸引力。 多措并举下，熊猫债正成为国际知名机构的重要人民币融资渠道。据了解，目前熊猫债发行主体已涵盖 国际开发 ...

此后，在一系列政策的积极推动下，市场规模不断扩大。2015年以来，为进一步扩大人民币跨境使用， 推进人民币加入特别提款权货币篮子进程，人民银行会同财政部等相关部门加大熊猫债市场推进力度， 2016年熊猫债年发行规模一举跃升至约1300亿元。 2018年9月，人民银行联合财政部发布《全国银行间债券市场境外机构债券发行管理暂行办法》，为熊 猫债提供了更加透明、稳定的政策环境，此后进入平稳发展阶段。2022年以来，随着市场利率环境的改 变以及熊猫债管理机制的优化，熊猫债市场发展速度加快。2024年，银行间市场熊猫债券年度发行量约 1858亿元，市场规模近3000亿元。今年前4个月，熊猫债累计发行规模622亿元，继续保持快速增长势 头。 如今，熊猫债正在成为国际知名机构的重要人民币融资渠道。近年来，包括亚洲基础设施投资银行 （AIIB）、新开发银行（NDB）、亚洲开发银行（ADB）等国际开发机构，匈牙利、埃及等外国政 府，以及奔驰、宝马、大众、巴斯夫、书赞桉诺等知名跨国公司相继进入熊猫债券市场。熊猫债发行主 体涵盖国际开发机构、外国政府、境外金融机构及非金融企业等各类型机构，区域覆盖亚洲、欧洲、非 洲、北美洲、南美洲 ...

熊猫债券是境外机构在中国境内发行的以人民币计价的债券，既是推动我国债券市场开放的重要举措， 也是拓宽人民币跨境融资渠道，助力人民币国际化进程的重要工具。2015年以来，为进一步扩大人民币 跨境使用，推进人民币加入特别提款权货币篮子进程，人民银行会同财政部等相关部门加大熊猫债市场 推进力度。 近年来，在有利的政策及市场环境下，熊猫债券市场不断提质扩容，市场规模屡创新高，展现出全球资 本对人民币资产的信心与青睐。2024年，银行间市场熊猫债券年度发行量约1858亿元，市场规模近3000 亿元。今年前4个月，熊猫债累计发行规模622亿元，继续保持快速增长势头。 目前，熊猫债正在成为国际知名机构的重要人民币融资渠道。近年来，包括亚洲基础设施投资及银行 （AIIB）、新开发银行（NDB）、亚洲开发银行（ADB）等国际开发机构，匈牙利、埃及等外国政 府，以及奔驰、宝马、大众、巴斯夫、书赞桉诺等知名跨国机构相继进入熊猫债券市场。熊猫债发行主 体已经涵盖国际开发机构、外国政府、境外金融机构及非金融企业等各类型机构，区域覆盖亚洲、欧 洲、非洲、北美洲、南美洲五大洲。近期，拉美、非洲地区发行主体先后实现破冰，熊猫债券助力中 拉、 ...

近年来，中国金融高水平开放不断深化，熊猫债市场创新日益活跃，制度安排愈加国际化，资金使用更 加便利。《金融时报》记者了解到，今年前四个月，熊猫债累计发行规模622亿元，继续保持快速增长 势头。 所谓熊猫债，指的是境外机构在中国境内发行的以人民币计价的债券。"熊猫债既是推动我国债券市场 开放的重要举措，也是拓宽人民币跨境融资渠道，助力人民币国际化进程的重要工具。"有业内专家表 示，近年来，在有利的政策及市场环境下，熊猫债券市场不断提质扩容，市场规模屡创新高，展现出全 球资本对人民币资产的信心与青睐。 我国熊猫债的发展已经历20年。2005年，国际金融公司、亚洲开发银行在银行间债券市场试点发行人民 币债券，熊猫债市场正式启动。2015年以来，为进一步扩大人民币跨境使用，推进人民币加入特别提款 权货币篮子进程，人民银行会同财政部等相关部门加大熊猫债市场推进力度，2016年熊猫债年发行规模 一举跃升至约1300亿元。2018年9月，人民银行联合财政部共同发布《全国银行间债券市场境外机构债 券发行管理暂行办法》，为熊猫债提供了更加透明、稳定的政策环境，此后进入平稳发展阶段。2022年 以来，随着市场利率环境的改变以及熊 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange reform has gradually established a dynamic equilibrium exchange rate system that emphasizes both market - led pricing and macro - prudential management through a series of reforms from 2015 to 2022 [14] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by international payments, interest rate parity, and relative economic strength. When these three factors are in the same direction, it is more likely to form a trend of appreciation [194] - The offshore RMB market's liquidity is supported by cross - border trade settlement for long - term growth and central bank support and market financing for short - term stability [87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Foreign Exchange Reform - China's foreign exchange reform includes the improvement of the mid - price mechanism in 2015, the introduction of the counter - cyclical factor in 2017, the dynamic adjustment of cross - border financing macro - prudential parameters in 2019, and the strengthening of the foreign exchange risk reserve system in 2022 [14] - The mid - price mechanism combines the previous day's closing price and the change of a basket of currencies, which makes the mid - price close to the market and takes into account external stability [21] - The counter - cyclical factor guides market rational expectations, weakens the self - reinforcement mechanism of pro - cyclical behavior, and enhances the resilience and stability of the exchange rate mechanism [24] - Since the launch of the LPR reform in August 2019, the loan quotation mechanism has become more market - oriented, breaking the "implicit lower limit" of loan interest rates [27] - The adjustment of cross - border financing macro - prudential parameters aims to increase cross - border financing quotas, relieve RMB depreciation pressure, and optimize the asset - liability structure of domestic entities [32] 3.2 Domestic RMB Foreign Exchange Market - The RMB foreign exchange market is divided into the bank - to - customer market and the inter - bank market. The inter - bank market has high liquidity and large trading volume [41] - The inter - bank foreign exchange derivatives market has developed since 2005, with swap transactions being the most important trading method [62] - In the spot market, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has weakened, and the demand for purchasing foreign exchange has increased. In the forward market, enterprises tend to lock in the cost of purchasing foreign exchange in advance [66] - Short - term foreign exchange derivatives dominate the market, mainly meeting the short - term foreign exchange capital allocation and risk management needs of banks and enterprises [81] 3.3 Offshore RMB Market - The long - term liquidity of the offshore RMB market is mainly supplied by cross - border trade settlement, and the short - term liquidity is obtained through market financing and official support [87] - The offshore RMB market has various products, including CNH spot, RMB offshore non - deliverable forward, RMB offshore deliverable forward, RMB futures, and RMB futures options [94] - The participants in the offshore RMB market are diversified, and the proportion of non - financial institutional investors has increased, narrowing the gap between the offshore and onshore exchange rates [101] 3.4 QFII, RQFII, and QDII - QFII and RQFII systems have been gradually liberalized, allowing foreign institutional investors to invest in the Chinese domestic capital market. The two systems have been unified [106] - The QDII system allows domestic institutional investors to invest overseas, and its investment scope and scale have been gradually expanded [108] 3.5 RMB Internationalization - RMB internationalization has gone through three stages: using trade settlement as a breakthrough, accelerating investment and financial opening, and enhancing global influence [112] - To promote RMB internationalization, China has promoted RMB pricing in commodities, expanded the opening of the domestic financial market, and strengthened RMB settlement in neighboring and "Belt and Road" countries [122] 3.6 SWIFT and CIPS - SWIFT is the most important cross - border payment system globally, but the increasing use of financial sanctions by the US has made the international community aware of the risks of the US - dollar - dominated system. CIPS is playing an increasingly important role in RMB cross - border settlement [127] - In 2024, CIPS handled a large number of RMB cross - border payment transactions, and the RMB's share in global payments has increased, ranking fourth [132] 3.7 RMB Exchange Rate Analysis - Short - term RMB exchange rate trends are determined by capital supply and demand, market expectations, and policy and external environments [140] - The issuance of offshore central bank bills affects the supply and demand of offshore RMB, and the swap point reflects market expectations for the RMB [169] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by international payments, interest rate parity, and relative economic strength. When these factors are in the same direction, it is beneficial for the RMB exchange rate [194] - The international balance of payments affects the RMB exchange rate. Trade surpluses lead to RMB appreciation, and capital outflows lead to RMB depreciation [195] - Interest rate parity affects capital flow. When the RMB interest rate is higher than the US dollar interest rate, it supports the RMB; otherwise, the RMB is under pressure [195] - Relative economic strength affects market expectations. When China's economic prospects are better than the US, the RMB has the potential to appreciate [197]

Group 1 - The establishment of the Saudi delivery warehouse at the Shanghai Gold Exchange marks a significant shift in global financial dynamics, challenging the long-standing "dollar-oil" structure and promoting the renminbi as a new pricing power alongside gold [1] - The Shanghai gold pricing benchmark is expected to emerge as a third pole alongside London and New York gold markets, enhancing the demand for renminbi assets and driving a chain reaction of "pricing power-currency demand-asset growth" [1] - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a temporary suspension of tariffs, positively impacting market sentiment and resulting in significant gains in US and Chinese stock indices [2][3] Group 2 - The Chinese bond market has reached a scale of 183 trillion yuan, making it the second largest globally, with foreign investment in domestic bonds increasing significantly [4] - The inclusion of Chinese bonds in major global indices since 2019 has enhanced their attractiveness, with a total return rate of 4.8% in 2023, outperforming US and European government bonds [4] - The establishment of the Saudi delivery warehouse is a crucial step in the internationalization of the renminbi, allowing overseas investors to trade gold directly in renminbi, thus broadening the access to offshore renminbi [5] Group 3 - The renminbi has appreciated against the US dollar, driven by China's economic resilience, with forecasts suggesting further strengthening in the coming months [6] - China's GDP has consistently surpassed significant milestones, contributing 30% of global economic growth even amid a sluggish global economy [6] - The ongoing financial market reforms and the internationalization of the renminbi are expected to position it as a safe haven for global investors, reshaping the investment landscape [7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with 32 countries and regions, totaling approximately 4.5 trillion yuan, with the recent renewal of the agreement with Brazil being a significant step in deepening financial cooperation between the two nations [1][2]. Group 1: Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements - The PBOC and the Central Bank of Brazil renewed their bilateral currency swap agreement, amounting to 190 billion yuan (157 billion Brazilian reais), valid for five years and extendable by mutual consent [1]. - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the PBOC has been actively signing bilateral currency swap agreements with foreign central banks, covering major economies across six continents [1]. Group 2: Economic and Trade Relations - China has been Brazil's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, and Brazil is China's top trading partner in Latin America, indicating a strong economic relationship [2]. - The renewal of the currency swap agreement is expected to further enhance trade between China and Brazil and promote the use of the yuan in Brazil and the broader Latin American region [2]. Group 3: Financial Stability and Cooperation - The bilateral currency swap agreement is viewed as a crucial component of the global financial safety net, especially in the context of current tariff impacts, signaling a commitment to cooperation and market confidence [2]. - The agreement is part of a broader strategy to strengthen the financial partnership between China and Brazil, contributing to a more equitable and sustainable global community [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Milan Report presents a comprehensive strategy for restructuring the global trade system, emphasizing the need to address the overvaluation of the US dollar as a root cause of global economic imbalances [1][2]. Group 1: Milan Report Insights - The Milan Report, titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System," was published by Hudson Bay Capital in November 2024 [1]. - It argues that the persistent overvaluation of the US dollar hinders balanced international trade, stemming from low elastic demand for reserve assets globally [1]. - The report suggests that tariffs can be a unilateral tool for the US government to address dollar overvaluation, allowing other countries to share the cost of the US providing global reserve assets [1]. Group 2: Proposed Strategies - Besides tariffs, the US can utilize both multilateral and unilateral monetary strategies to reduce trade and financial imbalances [2]. - A multilateral strategy involves signing a new version of the Plaza Accord (referred to as the Mar-a-Lago Agreement) with other major countries to encourage their currencies to appreciate against the dollar [2]. - The report also recommends converting US Treasury holdings into ultra-long-term bonds to alleviate repayment pressures on the US government [2]. Group 3: Implications of Tariffs - The report indicates that the first round of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration benefited the US by increasing fiscal revenue and mitigating inflation due to currency depreciation in other countries [3]. - It posits that if China were to devalue the yuan in response to US tariffs, it could lead to a significant capital outflow and financial market turmoil in China [3]. Group 4: Counterarguments and Risks - The analysis overlooks the adjustments already made in the Chinese real estate market prior to the potential new tariffs, with signs of stabilization emerging [4]. - It also fails to recognize that the Chinese government is unlikely to significantly devalue the yuan as a countermeasure to tariff pressures, given the lack of basis for such a move [4]. - The report does not account for China's reduced trade dependency on the US and its strategic shift towards domestic consumption and expanding internal demand [4]. Group 5: Global Cooperation and Currency Dynamics - The report neglects the potential for China to enhance cooperation with other countries to counter US actions, which could lead to improved bilateral relations, particularly with Europe [5]. - It warns that unilateral and multilateral strategies could damage the US's reputation as a global market provider and the dollar's status as a reserve currency, potentially accelerating changes in the international monetary system [5]. - The report suggests that if the US continues down a path of isolationism, it could create opportunities for the internationalization of the yuan, particularly in commodity trading and cross-border settlement [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Panda Bond market is experiencing rapid expansion, with issuance expected to reach a historical high in 2024, driven by policy support, domestic and foreign yield differentials, and the internationalization of the RMB [1][2]. Group 1: Panda Bond Market Development - Panda Bonds are RMB-denominated bonds issued by foreign entities in China, marking a significant step in the dual opening of China's capital market and the internationalization of the RMB [2]. - The issuance scale for Panda Bonds reached 154.45 billion RMB in 2023 and is projected to hit 194.8 billion RMB in 2024, influenced by yield differentials, regulatory policies, and RMB internationalization [2]. Group 2: Issuance Characteristics - The majority of issuers are high-rated entities, with AAA-rated bonds accounting for 95.64% of the issuance in 2024, an increase of 3.67 percentage points from 2023 [3]. - Foreign participation has increased significantly, with foreign-invested enterprises making up 39% of issuers in 2024, up nearly 20 percentage points from 2023 [3]. - The banking, food and beverage, public utilities, and non-bank financial sectors represent 79.77% of the issuance, with banks seeing a 17.08 percentage point increase in their share [3]. Group 3: Interest Rate and Maturity Trends - The average issuance interest rate for Panda Bonds fell to 2.33% in 2024, a decrease of 53 basis points from 2023, with expectations for further decline to 1.96% in 2025 [4]. - The majority of bonds are issued with maturities of 2 to 5 years, which accounted for 72.07% of the issuance in 2024, an increase of 10.53 percentage points from 2023 [4]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - The regulatory environment for Panda Bonds has improved, enhancing participation from high-quality foreign issuers and investors [5]. - The financing cost advantage of Panda Bonds has become more pronounced due to the widening interest rate differential between China and the U.S., with the 10-year U.S.-China yield spread exceeding 300 basis points [6][7]. - The internationalization of the RMB is accelerating, with the currency gaining prominence in global payments and trade settlements, ranking as the fourth largest payment currency in 2024 [8]. Group 5: Investment Value and Strategy - The investor base for Panda Bonds primarily consists of commercial banks and non-legal entities, with non-legal entities holding 39.31% and commercial banks 34.08% of the total [11]. - The monthly trading volume of Panda Bonds increased by approximately 32% in 2024, indicating improved liquidity [12]. - The overall credit quality of Panda Bonds is high, with a significant portion of the bonds yielding below 2%, making them attractive for conservative investors [13][14]. - Opportunities for arbitrage exist between Panda Bonds and domestic bonds issued by the same corporate groups, allowing investors to capture yield differentials [18].