日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：仍在探索是否有可能达成贸易协议。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is willing to accept a trade agreement with the United States that includes a 10% universal tariff on many EU exports, while seeking lower tariffs for key industries such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft [1] Group 1 - The EU is pushing for the U.S. to commit to lower tariffs on critical sectors [1] - The EU aims to negotiate quotas and exemptions to reduce the U.S. tariffs of 25% on automobiles and auto parts, as well as 50% on steel and aluminum [1] - EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic will lead a delegation to Washington this week to advance negotiations [1] Group 2 - The European Commission seeks to address existing sector tariffs imposed by the U.S. and any future tariffs planned [1]

欧元兑美元涨0.4%，暂报1.1765。据媒体报道，欧盟愿意接受与美国达成的一项贸易协议，该协议包括对其许多出口产品征收10%的普遍关税， 但希望美国承诺降低关键行业的关税。欧盟正在敦促美国给予配额和豁免，以有效降低华盛顿对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝征收的关税，并希 望解决非关税壁垒和行业关税问题。 欧盟必须在7月9日之前与美国达成贸易协议，并正在准备应对措施，包括对价值210亿美元和950亿美元的美国商品征收关税，以防谈判结果不令 人满意。 ...

白宫新闻秘书莱维特：我们很快就会知道与印度的贸易协议。 ...

白宫经委会主任哈塞特：将就贸易协议进行马拉松式会谈。 ...

白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特：将围绕贸易协议进行马拉松一样的磋商。 ...

美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）对上述时间表没有一定要遵守的意思，称"许多国家前来接洽、提出非常好的方 案"，但或许无法全部赶在特朗普政府对等关税预定生效的期限前敲定贸易协议。 美国商务部长卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）于当地时间6月26日曾表示，7月对等关税暂停截止日前，美国大约会跟十 大经济体签署关税协议。 6月30日消息，随着美国对等关税暂停的时间期限即将到来，未与美国达成关税协议的国家和地区将面临重新开征对 等关税。据彭博社引述未具名消息人士报导称，美国即将与中国台湾、印度尼西亚等部分贸易伙伴达成关税协议，此 外美国也有望与越南、韩国、印度敲定关税协议。 报导称，包括日本、印度与欧盟在内的部分贸易伙伴，因为不知道自己出口的芯片、药物及商业飞机会被分别加征多 重的关税而不敢贸然签协议。美国商务部即将在接下来几周公布这些产业的调查结果，并借此开征关税。 不过，据India Today报导，印度与美国间的贸易协议，有望于7月8日公布，所有的条款双方都已有共识。印度首席谈 判代表亚格拉沃（Rajesh Agrawal）率领的团队也已经抵达美国华盛顿，负责敲定目前这分贸易协议的最终版。 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to strengthen if the US government announces more trade agreements, potentially reaching a resistance level of 0.6700 against the USD, while negative news could lead to a decline towards a support level around 0.6428 [1] - The market anticipates a 92% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates in July, following moderate inflation data from May [1] - Citigroup analysts noted that the yield spread of Eurozone government bonds shows resilience amid geopolitical tensions, indicating stable market performance despite uncertainties [1] Group 2 - ANZ's survey indicates that New Zealand businesses showed increased confidence in June, with 46.3% expecting economic improvement over the next year, up from 36.6% in May [2] - Despite the rise in confidence, the actual operating conditions for businesses remain weak, highlighting a disparity between sentiment and reality [2] - Barclays reported an increase in risk premium for dollar-denominated assets in the first half of the year due to US policy volatility, while US Treasury yields are expected to potentially exceed 5% [2] Group 3 - The UK economy experienced a 0.7% growth in Q1 2025, driven mainly by business investment and net trade, but this growth may not be sustainable [3] - A significant drop of over 30% in UK exports to the US in April indicates weakening external demand, particularly from the US market [3] - Concerns about the impact of tariffs on US prices and inflation expectations are rising, with the Federal Reserve's upcoming consumer price report being crucial for future monetary policy direction [3]

Group 1 - The market is optimistic about trade agreements, which has increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated [1][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before September has risen from approximately 70% to 92.4% [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee will meet next month, but there will be no meeting in August [3] Group 2 - The US dollar index has slightly increased by 0.1% to 97.276, but remains close to a three-year low of 96.933 [3] - The euro has weakened slightly against the dollar, trading at 1.1716, just below the highest level since September 2021 [3] - The British pound is stable against the dollar at 1.3709, near its highest level since October 2021 [3] Group 3 - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that the US dollar's performance this week will be influenced by US trade dynamics [4] - Positive news regarding trade agreements is expected to support the US dollar against major currencies like the euro, yen, and pound [4] - Conversely, the US dollar may decline against other currencies such as the Australian dollar [4]