Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for advancing the construction of a unified national market in China, emphasizing the need for improved foundational systems and the reduction of local government protectionism [2][3][4]. Group 1: Challenges in Unified Market Construction - The foundational systems for the unified market are currently inadequate, characterized by vague standards, excessive discretionary power, and inconsistent market access criteria across different regions [2][3]. - Local government protectionism distorts the original intent of foundational systems, driven by a reliance on GDP and tax revenue for performance evaluations, leading to short-term and localized problem-solving approaches [3]. Group 2: Recommendations for Improvement - Establish a closed-loop foundational system for the unified market, including legislative enhancements, compliance checks, and regular evaluations of regulations [4]. - Strengthen central institutional coordination to reduce local barriers and enhance regulatory oversight, similar to the EU's approach of transferring regulatory powers to a central authority [4]. - Shift government functions from direct economic intervention to regulatory oversight to mitigate local government protectionism and maintain market order [4]. Group 3: Case Study - The "One Code Integration" reform in Puyang City, Henan Province, exemplifies a successful initiative to address the "access but not operation" issue by integrating various licenses into a single QR code on business licenses, significantly improving market efficiency [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing legal, credit, and intelligent regulation in market supervision to address deep-seated contradictions and issues in the market, while also improving the business environment and promoting high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Key Aspects of Market Regulation - The focus areas for strengthening market regulation include supporting the construction of a unified national market, addressing local protectionism, and responding to public concerns regarding food safety, drug safety, and industrial product quality [2][3]. - The National Market Supervision Administration is drafting the "Special Reform Plan for Legal Market Supervision (2025-2027)" to continuously enhance the legal framework of market regulation [1][2]. Group 2: Legislative Improvements - The "Draft Amendment to the Price Law" is being solicited for public opinion, marking the first revision since its implementation in 1998, which aims to provide legal grounds for addressing "involution" competition [3][4]. - The draft specifies that predatory pricing practices aimed at eliminating competitors or monopolizing the market will be strictly regulated and punished, highlighting the need for a robust legal framework to maintain fair competition [3][4]. Group 3: Enforcement and Social Impact - The effectiveness of enforcement is crucial, as arbitrary enforcement and excessive penalties can undermine public trust in regulatory bodies [5]. - The National Market Supervision Administration has emphasized the need for a balanced approach to enforcement, combining education and penalties, and has introduced a list of minor violations that may not incur penalties, aiming for a fair and humane regulatory environment [5].

国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉表示，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企 业行为，这一部署着重通过系统施策，针对在公平竞争过程中出现的违背市场规律、产业发展规律的不 当做法进行集中治理，以便更好发挥市场配置资源的作用，营造良好的产业发展生态环境，具有牵一发 而动全身的作用。 建立健全反内卷长效机制 整治"内卷式"竞争，7月开始更加注重健全"长效机制"，且新能源汽车、光伏将是重点。 近段时间以来，政策层面正持续密集部署新能源汽车、光伏等行业的"反内卷"，钢铁、水泥、电池、塑 料加工等多个行业协会也陆续发起号召反对"内卷式"无序竞争。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议明确强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点， 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 两天后，工信部召开了光伏行业制造业企业座谈会，强调依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争， 引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。 综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争，已成为下一阶段工业稳增长的重点工作之一。 下半年面对更加复杂严峻的外部环境，全国工业和信息化主管部门负责同志 ...

综合整治"内卷式"竞争是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措。工信部强调，巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合整治成效，加强光伏等重点行业治理，以 标准提升倒逼落后产能退出。相关部门正着力建立健全反内卷的"长效机制"，反内卷的制度和法律监管体系也日趋完善。 综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争，已成为下一阶段工业稳增长的重点工作之一。 下半年面对更加复杂严峻的外部环境，全国工业和信息化主管部门负责同志座谈会7月28日在北京召开，总结上半年工作，分析当前形势，部署下一阶段重 点任务。 工信部明确，下半年突出"强筋壮骨"、价值创造、安全保障、行业治理，重点抓好八个方面工作，包括扩大内需、加力推进重点产业链高质量发展行动、更 大力度推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展、深化数字技术赋能应用、提升工业能效与绿色发展水平等。 综合整治"内卷式"竞争是解决当前经济发展矛盾的关键举措。工信部强调，巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合整治成效，加强光伏等重点行业治理，以 标准提升倒逼落后产能退出。相关部门正着力建立健全反内卷的"长效机制"，反内卷的制度和法律监管体系也日趋完善。 （这是京杭大运河杭州段一出口汽车码头上等待出口的新能源汽车。图片来源 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing efforts to strengthen the rule of law in market regulation, highlighting the importance of legal, credit, and intelligent supervision to address deep-seated contradictions and issues in the market [1] Group 1: Market Regulation Focus Areas - Key areas for enhancing market regulation include supporting the construction of a unified national market, addressing local protectionism, and tackling "involution" competition through effective legal governance [2] - There is a need for proactive responses to public concerns regarding food safety, drug safety, and industrial product quality [2] Group 2: Legal Framework Improvement - The draft amendment to the Price Law, the first since its implementation in 1998, aims to provide legal grounds for addressing "involution" competition by defining low-cost dumping practices [3] - The amendment seeks to establish a long-term governance mechanism to prevent irrational market competition driven by capital excess [3] Group 3: Regulatory Adaptation to New Business Models - The market regulatory authority is working to fill regulatory gaps for new business models, such as live e-commerce, and is enhancing the regulatory framework for platform algorithms [4] - This reflects the continuous improvement and dynamic updating of the market regulatory legal system [4] Group 4: Enforcement and Social Impact - The effectiveness of enforcement is crucial, as arbitrary enforcement and excessive penalties can undermine public trust in regulatory bodies [5] - The case of the "frog soup" incident illustrates issues of improper enforcement and abuse of power, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to regulation [5] - The regulatory authority plans to implement a list of first-time non-penalties and minor exemptions, aiming for a fair and humane enforcement approach [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Oscillating [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the short - term [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, the recent Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized the construction of a unified national market with "five unifications and one opening". The market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization under the anti - involution background. However, the central government is still stimulating the economy through investment, which may bring incremental funds in the short - term but the long - term effect remains to be seen. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down due to strong "non - farm" data, weakening the boost to domestic small - cap indices. The index fundamentals depend on the domestic economic recovery process. With PPI continuing to decline in June, credit contraction and insufficient demand are the main contradictions, making it difficult for the index to break through the central level and rise significantly. On the other hand, corporate profits in the first half of 2025 improved compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A - share index is not likely to fall sharply in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the future [1]. - For treasury bonds, on July 28, 2025, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts rose by 0.56%, 0.18%, 0.13%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%. After deducting the 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repos due on the same day, the net investment was 325.1 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 in the inter - bank market decreased. The export growth rate in June exceeded expectations, the total financial data exceeded expectations and the structure continued to improve. The GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 5.2%, and the economic data in June remained resilient, reducing the short - term expectation of interest - rate cuts. Since July, the anti - involution policy expectations have driven up market risk appetite, with stock indices and commodities rising strongly, suppressing the bond market sentiment. In the short - term, the bond market rebound is basically over, and the bond market is expected to show a recovery trend, with treasury bonds bullish in the short - term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes in the Second Quarter - Stock Index Futures: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, IH rose by 9.0 points (0.32%), IF rose by 6.0 points (0.15%), IC rose by 6.0 points (0.10%), and IM fell by 3.8 points (- 0.06%) [3] - Stock Indices: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose by 7.3 points (0.26%), the CSI 300 rose by 8.7 points (0.21%), the CSI 500 rose by 23.8 points (0.38%), and the CSI 1000 rose by 23.4 points (0.35%) [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, TS rose by 0.052 points (0.05%), TF rose by 0.15 points (0.14%), T rose by 0.215 points (0.20%), and TL rose by 0.83 points (0.70%) [3] 3.2 Market News - On July 28, regarding the Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade talks, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China's stance on economic and trade issues is consistent. China hopes that the US will implement the important consensus reached in the phone call between the two heads of state, play the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and communication [5] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][15][16][17] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [20][21][22][24][25][27] 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [28] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking, with futures qualification number F03087149 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0019537 [28]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility, with major contracts for coking coal, glass, coke, soda ash, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate hitting the limit down [1] - Over ten varieties, including alumina and polysilicon, saw declines exceeding 3%, marking a shift from previous bullish sentiment driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations to panic selling [1][3] - The implementation of position limits by exchanges was a direct catalyst for the market reversal, coinciding with a period of heightened market enthusiasm [3] Group 2 - From July 1 to July 25, polysilicon futures prices surged by 52.31%, glass futures by 33.79%, and lithium carbonate futures by 28.46%, while coking coal futures rose by 49.44% over seven consecutive trading days [3] - The position limits imposed by exchanges directly impacted speculative trading, forcing speculative funds to reduce positions and exit the market [3] - Despite the market's sharp adjustment, the fundamental logic behind the "anti-involution" policy remains, aiming to improve the current state of vicious competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [4] Group 3 - The steel industry, as a key focus of regulatory measures, is expected to see a year-on-year production decline of 5% in the third quarter, which will positively affect the fundamentals of coking coal as a crucial raw material [4] - The situation in the new energy supply chain is more complex, with lithium and silicon facing weak fundamentals but supported by strong policy expectations, leading to a rebound despite high inventory levels and oversupply [4] - The glass industry faces ongoing supply pressure, with float glass production maintaining around 156,800 tons per day, and demand showing no significant improvement, leading to a pessimistic market outlook [5]

Core Viewpoint - The State Taxation Administration has reported significant advancements in tax administration efficiency and digitalization during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing taxpayer convenience and compliance [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Tax Administration - A new unified electronic tax bureau has been launched, enabling 90% of high-frequency tax payment services to be completed within 3 minutes, with 70% of taxpayers able to finalize their tax declarations with minimal input [2]. - As of June 2023, over 61 million taxpayers have utilized electronic invoices, accounting for more than 90% of the total invoicing amount [4]. Group 2: Market Regulation and Compliance - The tax authorities have made progress in promoting a unified national market and have actively addressed tax-related issues in irregular investment promotions since early 2024 [5][6]. - To standardize tax policy enforcement and reduce discrepancies, the tax administration has issued a series of policy execution guidelines and unified administrative penalty standards across six major regions [8]. Group 3: Support for Foreign Investment - Over 630 billion yuan in profits from foreign enterprises have benefited from reinvestment tax incentives during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with new policies introduced to further support foreign reinvestment [10]. - The implementation of "immediate refund" services for departure tax refunds has improved efficiency by over 40%, bolstering inbound tourism and consumption [10].

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between economic growth and tax revenue is complex, with economic performance generally driving tax revenue, but short-term discrepancies can occur due to various factors [1][3]. Group 1: Tax Revenue Projections - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, total tax revenue is expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 80% of total fiscal revenue [2]. - Tax revenue, excluding export tax rebates, is projected to surpass 85 trillion yuan, while social insurance fees and land transfer fees collected by tax authorities are expected to exceed 70 trillion yuan [2]. - The proportion of direct taxes is anticipated to exceed 40%, reflecting an enhancement in the redistributive function of the tax system [2]. Group 2: GDP and Tax Revenue Discrepancies - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP is expected to grow by 5.3%, while tax revenue is projected to decline by 1.2%, resulting in a "scissor difference" of -6.5% [2]. - For 2024, the discrepancy is forecasted to widen to -8.4%, with tax revenue declining by 3.4% and GDP growth at 5% [3]. - The long-term correlation between GDP growth and tax revenue is generally positive, but short-term deviations can occur due to tax policies and economic structure [3]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on Tax Revenue - Price changes, particularly in the Producer Price Index (PPI), significantly impact tax revenue, with PPI fluctuations historically correlating with tax revenue changes [3]. - The PPI is expected to decline by 2.2% in 2024, with a notable drop in the second half of the year due to international commodity price fluctuations and insufficient domestic demand [4]. - In the first half of 2023, the PPI decreased by 2.8%, with June marking a significant decline of 3.6% [5]. Group 4: Structural Changes in Tax Sources - The decline in traditional industries, such as real estate, has led to a slowdown in tax revenue growth, while emerging sectors, although growing, currently contribute less to overall tax revenue [5]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for a unified national market, which is expected to address these structural changes [5]. Group 5: Tax Administration and Compliance - The tax authorities are focusing on addressing irregularities in investment attraction, with a management system led by the State Taxation Administration [6]. - Since early 2024, there has been a crackdown on tax-related issues in irregular investment practices, ensuring that local tax authorities do not obstruct normal business operations [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the commitment of the tax authorities to resist behaviors that undermine tax fairness and disrupt market order, while actively supporting the construction of a unified national market [1][2] - Tax authorities are required to align their efforts to support the unified market construction, conducting special governance on tax issues related to irregular investment promotion since early 2024, and monitoring over 3,000 suspicious leads for timely investigation and correction [1] - A series of tax policy execution guidelines have been issued to standardize enforcement services and prevent discrepancies in tax enforcement across regions, ensuring a unified standard for administrative penalties [1] Group 2 - Tax authorities are advancing legal fairness by adjusting the tax location for personal transfers of restricted shares from the securities account opening location to the location of the listed company, preventing tax evasion through account transfers [2] - Clear operational standards have been established for regions implementing regional tax incentives, ensuring that only qualifying enterprises and individuals can enjoy these benefits, thus preventing unfair competition [2] - The implementation of the "Internet Platform Enterprises Tax Information Reporting Regulations" promotes lawful tax payment and compliance among platform operators, fostering fair competition between online and offline markets [2]