黄金投资
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金价震荡难拿?长期逻辑未变,黄金ETF或成新政下最优解
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 02:14
Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to pending expectations regarding U.S. economic policies and geopolitical tensions, while the long-term logic supporting gold investment remains intact [1][2][3] Group 1: Recent Market Dynamics - Gold prices have stabilized around $4000 per ounce after experiencing significant volatility [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could lead to a weakening of the U.S. government's fiscal capacity, potentially boosting gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts in December contributes to the current market uncertainty, with a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut being projected [2] Group 2: Long-term Support for Gold - The shift in U.S. monetary policy remains a key driver for gold prices, with recent economic data indicating no significant improvement in the U.S. economy [2] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and tensions in Venezuela and Iran, continue to provide strong support for gold prices [2][3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.09 million ounces, marking the 12th consecutive month of increases [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The new tax policy on gold in China makes gold ETFs an attractive investment option, offering tax benefits, low costs, and high liquidity [4] - Shanghai Gold ETF (159834) is highlighted as a superior choice compared to traditional gold ETFs due to its broader investment scope and lower transaction costs [5][6] - The overall precious metals sector has shown significant growth, with the precious metals index up 67.93% year-to-date, while other metal sectors have outperformed, indicating a recovery and growth opportunity in the broader metals market [6]
金晟富:11.12黄金高位震荡继续看涨!日内黄金行情分析参考
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 01:51
换资前言: 早上好!屏幕前的你,故事讲的短,别人说你瞎扯,讲的太长,就是扯蛋,交易这东西,就是找规律, 一个观点:历史不会重合,但会重演。你看看你用了多少年的技术点,来来回回不就那么多?扯蛋的不 是形态上的改变,而是自己遇到每一次价格变化的时候,心态变了,一切就感觉改变了。其实还是没 变。下面请看作者金晟富【文末+本人,每日实时分享现价单及操作策略】为各位投资朋友带来的今日 财富机会—— 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势?后市黄金多空该如何研判? 随着美国政府停摆即将结束,参议院通过临时拨款法案,众议院将审议表决,停摆结束后经济数据(含 9月就业报告)将密集发布,市场预期数据显疲软。黄金短期整体走势偏强,日内需持续关注行情上涨 趋势的延续性。4小时周期的表现也符合单边行情的走势,经过回落调整,k线还是收在均线之上,那 么,日内上涨的高点至少要试探布林上轨的压制点4200附近,所以,今天阶段性的上涨可以先看到4200 附近,如果周四,周五延续上涨的话,再看4300高点。对于小周期而言,4100已经形成强势支撑,那 么,下方的支撑点现在可以调整至4125附近,日内回落至此点位可考虑继续做多看涨,同样的节奏,亚 欧 ...
巴防长:国家“处于战争状态”!特朗普发出警告!黄金不宜追高?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-11-12 00:23
早上好,先来看下重要消息。 巴基斯坦首都发生自杀式炸弹袭击,已致12死27伤 分析人士认为,美国政府若败诉,将被迫退还巨额关税,同时可能援引其他法律重新实施部分关税,这 项裁决将对美国政治、经济及全球贸易产生举足轻重的影响。 环球时报援引法新社等媒体11日报道,当天巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡发生自杀式炸弹袭击,已造成12人死 亡,27人受伤。 巴基斯坦内政部长穆赫辛·纳克维表示,一名自杀式炸弹袭击者在伊斯兰堡一家地方法院大门外的一辆 警车附近引爆了身上的炸弹。 据报道,在伊斯兰堡发生自杀式爆炸事件后,巴基斯坦国防部长赫瓦贾·阿西夫在社交媒体上表示,巴 基斯坦正"处于战争状态",当天的袭击敲响了"警钟"。他还指责阿富汗方面未能阻止对巴基斯坦的恐怖 袭击,并称巴基斯坦有充分的力量对此作出回应。 巴基斯坦总统扎尔达里在社交媒体上称,强烈谴责首都伊斯兰堡自杀式爆炸事件,向遇难者家属表示深 切哀悼,祈祷伤者早日康复,并向执法机构致敬。 恐怖组织"巴基斯坦塔利班"宣称对此次爆炸事件负责,并在一份声明中称此次袭击目标是司法官员。 特朗普:推翻关税将致"毁灭性打击" 据央视新闻消息,特朗普11日在社交媒体上表示,若最高法院作出废除 ...
税收监管新政策落地 黄金市场迎来新变局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 23:07
Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding gold tax policies marks a significant shift in the regulatory framework and development landscape of the domestic gold market, aiming to enhance tax governance and guide gold resources to better serve the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy exempts value-added tax (VAT) on transactions of standard gold through official exchanges, with specific provisions for investment and non-investment uses, effective from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027 [1]. - The policy aims to address tax evasion issues and enhance regulatory oversight by distinguishing between the commodity and financial attributes of gold [2][8]. Group 2: Market Impact - The gold industry is expected to undergo a "reshuffling period," with potential short-term pain for the jewelry sector but a healthier long-term outlook, particularly for leading brands [3]. - The new tax structure may lead to fluctuations in gold raw material prices, indirectly affecting the cost of gold jewelry production and final retail prices [3]. Group 3: Banking Sector Adjustments - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have adjusted their gold accumulation services in response to market volatility and new regulations [4][5]. - Changes include suspending certain gold accumulation services and adjusting minimum investment amounts, reflecting the banks' risk management strategies [5][7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to be more cautious in their investment channel choices due to the new tax environment, which favors transactions through exchanges due to lower tax burdens [8][9]. - The attractiveness of non-exchange physical gold investments is expected to decline, while gold ETFs and other virtual trading options may gain popularity among ordinary investors [9][10]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The importance of the purchasing channel has increased significantly, with consumers needing to consider the tax implications of their gold purchases more carefully [9][10]. - The shift in tax policy may lead to a preference for purchasing gold through formal banking channels, which offer better liquidity and compliance assurances [10].
财经观察:金价高涨,消费者如何应对?
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-11-11 22:49
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by a new tax policy, has created significant market fluctuations and reactions across the gold industry, impacting everything from trading to consumer purchasing behavior [1][3][11]. Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a differentiated VAT exemption for standard gold transactions on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange until the end of 2027, which is expected to influence the entire gold market [1][3]. - The new tax policy categorizes gold transactions into investment and non-investment types, leading to a tax burden increase of approximately 7 percentage points for non-investment gold jewelry enterprises [3][11]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Shenzhen Shui Bei market experienced immediate disruptions, with many jewelers halting new orders and adjusting pricing strategies due to unstable gold prices [2][3]. - The price of gold jewelry saw significant increases, with prices rising by 60 to 70 yuan per gram for gold jewelry and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram in the Shui Bei market shortly after the policy announcement [3][4][6]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment is divided, with some viewing gold as a long-term investment and continuing to purchase despite rising prices, while others are adopting a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about potential price corrections [9][10][12]. - The demand for gold remains strong, with Chinese investors notably increasing their purchases of gold bars and coins, reflecting a broader trend of rising global gold investment demand [12]. Industry Adjustments - Major gold retailers quickly adjusted their pricing in response to the new tax policy, with significant price hikes reported across various brands [4][5]. - The industry is adapting to the new regulatory environment, with some businesses likely to pass on increased costs to consumers through higher prices [11].
较年初普遍上涨300元至550元 多家银行上调积存金门槛
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-11-11 22:37
近日,多家银行宣布上调积存金业务起购金额,最低门槛已提高至950元至1200元区间,较今年年初普 遍上涨了300元至550元。 积存金业务是指金融机构根据与客户的约定,为其开立黄金账户,记录客户在一定时期内存入一定重量 黄金的负债类业务。作为黄金投资工具,积存金业务类似于"分期买黄金",投资者无须持有实物,可通 过活期积存或定期积存的方式购买黄金份额,并可在满足条件后兑换实物黄金,实现积少成金、零存整 取。 商业银行为何在此时集中调整黄金积存业务门槛?核心原因在于当前黄金价格波动幅度加大、投资风险 显著上升。今年以来,国际金价累计上涨近60%,多次创下历史新高。然而,国际金价在逼近4400美 元/盎司关口时却出现大幅回调,10月28日一度跌破3900美元/盎司,近期不断出现反弹和高位震荡。 动态调整也有银行内部运营考量和风险防控的驱动,旨在减少金价剧烈波动带来的操作风险。东源投资 首席分析师刘祥东表示,金价高位波动放大了业务规模与潜在风险,提高门槛可筛选风险承受能力更强 的投资者,避免市场剧烈波动时非理性赎回引发的流动性压力。(记者 尚咲) 转自:经济日报 调整业务门槛是对黄金市场波动的正常回应。专家认为,多 ...
现货黄金突破4130美元,纽约期金突破4140美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 18:31
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has led to significant increases in domestic gold jewelry prices, but actual sales have not met expectations, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior towards gold investment and purchasing strategies [1][3][10]. Price Trends - On November 11, international gold prices exceeded $4,130 per ounce, with domestic gold jewelry prices also rising sharply, with some brands pricing gold at over 1,300 RMB per gram [1][3]. - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have set their gold prices at 1,308 RMB and 1,310 RMB per gram, respectively, with promotional discounts available [1][3]. Consumer Behavior - Despite promotional activities during the "Double 11" shopping festival, actual sales volumes have been disappointing, with many consumers opting to hold off on purchases due to high prices [3][5]. - There is a noticeable preference for smaller weight gold items, as larger items have seen a decline in sales due to increased prices [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The China Gold Association reported a 32.5% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry consumption for the first three quarters, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences towards lighter and higher-value products [7]. - There has been a growing trend of consumers opting for "old for new" exchanges, with stores offering promotions to facilitate this process, indicating a shift in purchasing strategies [8][10]. Investment Sentiment - The current environment has led to a significant increase in gold bar buyback activities, with some stores reporting a 30%-40% increase in gold recovery compared to the same period last year [10]. - Experts advise caution in gold investments, suggesting that consumers should avoid speculative buying and consider a diversified investment approach [10].
今日黄金多少钱一克?11月11日黄金价格跌价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 18:26
Group 1: Gold Prices and Retail Pricing - As of November 11, 2025, the international gold price is reported at $4044.2 per ounce, translating to a domestic benchmark price of 926.2 yuan per gram, with retail prices significantly higher [1] - Major jewelry brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook, and King Fook are selling 99.9% purity gold at prices of 1279 yuan per gram [1][2][3][4] - Other brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang offer slightly lower prices, with Chow Sang Sang at 1276 yuan per gram and Lao Feng Xiang at 1273 yuan per gram [2][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The latest dynamics in the Chinese gold market show a slight fluctuation in gold prices, with a trading price of 917.42 yuan per gram, down by 0.22 yuan or 0.024% from the previous trading day [9] - The highest and lowest trading prices for the day were 922.00 yuan per gram and 913.30 yuan per gram, respectively [9] - The gold market is influenced by various factors, and investors are advised to monitor real-time prices closely [9] Group 3: Precious Metal Recovery Prices - The recovery price for gold jewelry is set at 898 yuan per gram, maintaining a purity of 99.9% [10] - Platinum jewelry has a recovery price of 324 yuan per gram, also with a purity of 99.9% [11] - 18K gold jewelry is priced at 651 yuan per gram, with a purity of 75% [12] Group 4: Investment Insights - Gold serves a unique role in investment, often moving inversely to stocks and bonds, which can help mitigate investment risks [25] - From 2022 to 2025, central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China accumulating 7402 million ounces by August 2025 [25] - The net value of gold funds has increased by 150.66% over the past three years, outperforming traditional savings and many financial products [25]
建行再调积存金规则 对你的黄金投资有何影响?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-11 14:37
Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank announced adjustments to its personal accumulation gold business, effective November 15, enhancing liquidity management and customer communication transparency [2][9]. Summary of Key Points Changes in Trading Quotation Mechanism - The new rules clarify the authority for price adjustments, explaining the causes of buy-sell spreads and detailing the execution rules for spreads [3][4]. - The buy-sell spread is no longer fixed, allowing the bank to adjust it based on market conditions, trading positions, and liquidity [6][9]. Buy-Sell Spread Details - The buy-sell spread represents the difference between the bank's buying and selling prices, impacting the immediate trading costs for investors [5][6]. - The new rules specify that the buy-sell spread may vary and does not require prior announcement for adjustments [6][9]. Changes in Redemption Rules - The definition of "net redemption" is introduced, where net redemption exceeding 20% of the previous day's total accumulation is classified as a "large redemption" [9]. - The new rules provide clearer measures for handling large redemptions, allowing the bank to reject only the excess portion of redemption requests beyond the threshold [9].
建行再调积存金规则,对你的黄金投资有何影响?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-11-11 14:37
Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank (CCB) announced significant adjustments to its personal accumulation gold business, effective November 15, enhancing liquidity management and customer communication transparency [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Business Rule Adjustments - This marks the fourth adjustment to the personal accumulation gold business rules by CCB in 2023, following previous changes that extended trading hours and raised the minimum investment amount [3]. - The core change involves optimizing the trading quotation mechanism, including clarifying quotation adjustment authority and detailing the causes of buy-sell spreads [3][4]. Trading Quotation Mechanism - The new rules specify that the buy-sell spread is no longer fixed, allowing CCB to adjust it based on market conditions, trading positions, and liquidity [5][4]. - The adjustments include five key dimensions regarding the execution of spreads, such as the variability of buy-sell spreads and the lack of prior notice for spread adjustments [5][4]. Redemption Rules - The new rules introduce the concept of "net redemption," which calculates the total redemption requests minus any new accumulation on the same day, providing a more accurate reflection of liquidity pressure [7][8]. - The threshold for "giant redemptions" is defined as when the net redemption exceeds 20% of the total accumulation balance from the previous trading day [7][6]. - The handling of giant redemptions is clarified, allowing CCB to accept part of the redemption request while rejecting only the excess amount beyond the threshold [8][6].