Group 1: Israel-Iran Conflict - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran poses a significant threat to Israel through its nuclear capabilities and missile power [1] - Iranian Foreign Minister indicated that negotiations with the U.S. will take time, but the door for diplomacy remains open [1] - U.S. officials suggested that Iran may be concealing enough materials to manufacture nuclear weapons [1] Group 2: Military Actions - The Al-Qassam Brigades claimed to have launched several rockets at Israel [2] - The Houthis announced the use of hypersonic missiles to attack Israel [4] - The U.S. Ambassador to Israel threatened to use B-2 bombers against the Houthis [4] - The Israel Defense Forces reported intercepting a missile launched from Yemen [4] Group 3: Mediation Efforts - Qatar has submitted a mediation proposal to Israel and Hamas based on a framework by U.S. Middle East envoy, which includes some nuanced suggestions and modifications [3]

"我们讨论了关税、全球化的未来，以及大家对中东局势的担忧——这些都是当前最受关注的重大宏观 议题。" 在近期举行的2025年夏季达沃斯论坛期间，标普全球评级全球首席经济学家保罗·格伦瓦尔 （Paul Gruenwald）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，今年上半年，全球经济在不确定性加剧的背景下 依然展现出一定韧性，但结构性分化趋势愈发明显。他指出，关税政策对全球经济的影响不仅体现在税 率本身，更在于其带来的高度不确定性。 展望下半年，格伦瓦尔指出，决定经济走向的关键变量之一是政策不确定性的缓解。他预计，美国经济 将在今年实现"软着陆"；欧元区经济则有望逐步回暖；而中国经济"看起来相当稳健"。对于新兴市场， 格伦瓦尔同样持相对乐观态度，表示只要油价保持低位、美元相对稳定，这些市场的表现预计将较为良 好。不过，他也坦言，全球增长将呈现"不平衡"特征——各经济体受制于不同的经济周期和政策环境 等，处境将不尽相同。 谈及人工智能，格伦瓦尔表示，人工智能等新技术的广泛应用，有望成为未来5到10年全球增长的重要 动力。 上调对中国的增长预测 全球财经连线：你对于这次论坛有什么感受？ 保罗·格伦瓦尔：非常忙碌。我们讨论了关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China is expected to increase due to fluctuating international crude oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with specific price adjustments set for July 1 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of June 30, the reference crude oil price change rate was 5.41%, leading to an expected increase of 235 yuan per ton for gasoline and 225 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to an increase of 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel respectively [2]. - After the upcoming price adjustment, the national standard price for 92-octane gasoline in Zibo will rise from 7.14 yuan per liter to approximately 7.32 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline will increase from 7.66 yuan per liter to around 7.85 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Cost Implications - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan. For a small private car running 2,000 kilometers per month with an 8L/100km fuel consumption, the total fuel cost will increase by about 13 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L/100km will see an increase in fuel costs of approximately 337 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term oil prices are expected to remain volatile, primarily influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with a focus on US-Iran negotiations. However, unless a significant conflict arises, oil prices are unlikely to return to previous highs [3]. - Following a decrease in geopolitical risks, oil prices have returned to levels prior to the conflicts, but summer demand in the US is expected to provide support for prices, indicating that international oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the upcoming period [3]. Group 4: Future Price Adjustment Schedule - The next price adjustment window for refined oil will open on July 15, 2025, at 24:00 [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 27, 2025, the coking coal price continued to rise. The price increase was due to multiple factors including supply - side constraints, demand - side expectations, futures market factors, and capital inflows. However, high inventory levels suppressed the price rebound space [3][4][5] - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards as the NDRC released positive policies and data [8][9] - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term despite a short - term adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] - Iron ore is considered to be in a wide - range oscillation with a slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits, industry repair status, and the over - valuation risk caused by weak market conditions [16][17] - Glass is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19][20] - Short - term soybean oil prices may fluctuate or strengthen due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle - East situation. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23] Group 3: Summaries by Directory Coking Coal - Supply - side factors: In June (the "Safety Production Month"), major coking coal - producing provinces like Shanxi strengthened production restrictions after safety accidents. The upcoming implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 may force out backward production capacity. Some coal prices are close to cash costs, pressuring private mines to cut production [4] - Demand - side factors: Although the current terminal is in a seasonal off - peak, there is an expected increase in demand during the traditional coking coal peak season from April to October as steel mills may replenish stocks. More macro - policies to stabilize the economy and promote infrastructure could also boost demand [4] - Futures and capital factors: Coking coal futures have been falling since 2025, with a strong need for correction. Some short - position funds took profits and reduced positions, and the net long positions of the top 20 seats increased [5] - Inventory factor: The inventory of imported coking coal at ports and the total inventory are at a three - year high, and the frequent auction failures of Mongolian coal have led to inventory backlogs, suppressing price rebounds [5] A - share Market - Market trend: The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising and then falling, closing with small shrinking - volume negative lines. The market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment state [9] - Policy influence: The NDRC released positive policies and data at a regular press conference, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8][9] Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market [13] - Outlook: The long - term trend of gold is still bullish, and it is expected to reach a new high. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] Iron Ore - Market fundamentals: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak market conditions have increased the risk of over - valuation [17] - Technical analysis: The market closed with a large positive line today but remains within a wide - range oscillation, showing a slightly stronger trend [16] Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no significant cold - repair of production lines due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack the motivation to replenish stocks, resulting in a lack of continuous demand growth [20] - Technical analysis: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19] Soybean Oil - Market factors: The long - term expectations of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation may cause short - term price fluctuations or strengthen the market. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be a seasonal increase in production and inventory in the medium - term [23] - Trading strategy: When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23]

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - The Israeli military issued evacuation warnings for certain areas in northern Gaza [1] - Israel claims to have arrested over 60 Hamas members in the largest operation in the West Bank [1] - According to the media office in Gaza, 580 people have died while receiving food aid at a "US-Israel" assistance center, with the ongoing conflict resulting in 56,500 deaths in Gaza [1] Group 2: Iran-Israel Conflict - Israel's oil refinery is expected to fully resume operations by October 2025 [2] - The flight suspension in northern, southern, and western Iran has been extended until June 30 at 14:00 [2] - Iranian military chief Mousavi expressed strong doubts about Israel's commitment to a ceasefire [2] - Former US President Trump stated that three Iranian nuclear facilities have been completely destroyed, and if Iran can achieve peace, sanctions will be lifted [2] Group 3: Other Developments - The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Grossi, indicated that Iran could still produce enriched uranium within months [3] - The Saudi Defense Minister and the Iranian military chief discussed regional developments and efforts to maintain security and stability [3] - An Israeli court agreed to Prime Minister Netanyahu's request to postpone a hearing [3] - The Israeli Defense Forces reported multiple recent airstrikes in Syria [3]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 美股新高，原油大跌 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 海外经济跟踪周报 20250629 海外市场复盘（6.23-6.27） 本周海外主要股指普遍收涨。一是对伊朗以色列局势的担忧降温；二是因 为个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息和降低油价，令年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次；三是芯片和科技股发力；本周标普和纳指创新高，VIX 指 数下跌。 美元下跌、美债收益率下行。本周个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息、 鲍威尔在国会听证会上继续强调观望但态度开始"端水"；油价大幅回调、 抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅；周五公布 PCE 通胀超预期但超出的幅度有限， 年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次，美元和美债下行。 油价和黄金下跌。中东局势担忧下降，特朗普强调降低油价，令油价在此 前连续 3 周收涨后本周大跌，抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅。地缘冲突风险下 降、美国标普 PMI 等经济数据稳健、经济陷入衰退的概率下降，黄金回调。 海外央行动态 本周，美联储官员密集发声，立场不一。鸽派代表有美联储理事鲍曼，表 示可能支持 7 月降息；鹰派代表有哈玛克、博斯蒂克、柯林斯等。美联储 主席鲍威尔本周在 ...

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - The ongoing conflict in Gaza has resulted in 56,412 deaths in the region [4] - Israeli military claims to have killed a key Hamas military figure [4] - Israeli forces have expanded military operations in Gaza, resulting in over 200 casualties within 24 hours [4] Group 2: Iranian Response - Iran continues its peaceful nuclear energy program despite regional tensions [1] - Iran has reopened its central and western airspace for international flights [4] - A special legal task force has been established by the Iranian government to review actions taken by the US and Israel [4] Group 3: Regional Developments - Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon have resulted in three deaths [4] - An Israeli military operation has killed a commander of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon [4] - The Houthis have stated they will continue to attack Israel, with missiles intercepted by Israeli forces [4]

伊朗和以色列停火协议24日正式生效，持续了10余天的冲突渐告一段落。 总台记者 李健南：根据我连日来的观察，这条高速公路的车流量有一个明显的变化。在本轮以伊冲突刚刚开始的几天，货车数量相对比较稳定，包括我十 天前在亚美尼亚过境的时候，也看到许多往来两国的货车。但随着冲突持续和以色列空袭的加剧，从德黑兰方向驶出的车辆明显增多，但去往德黑兰方向的 车辆非常少。冲突期间，许多工厂停工，工业活动停止，再加上网络受限，因此很多货车车主没了生意。目前，以伊实现停火，很多经济活动陆续展开。我 的朋友告诉我，伊朗的海关、航运、采矿业等部门，自当地时间23日以后，就已经陆续复工，恢复正常状态。 返回德黑兰车辆增多 民众基本出行有保障 总台记者 李健南：现在是当地时间26日的中午，我们正行驶在伊朗西北部地区一条最重要的高速公路上，这条高速公路连接的是伊朗首都德黑兰到西北部 城市大不里士，从大不里士继续连接到伊朗的邻国土耳其、亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆。这条高速公路上车流量的多少，是可以判断伊朗经济活动活跃程度的一个 指标。 总台记者 李健南：在开往德黑兰的路上，我们先后经过伊朗东阿塞拜疆省、赞詹省、加兹温省等多个省份，很直观的感觉就是， ...

4. 伊朗将该国北部、南部和西部的国内和国际航班取消时间延长至周五下午两点。 5. 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊停火后首次现身，祝贺伊朗在对抗美国中取得胜利，称美袭击核设施收效甚 微，特朗普需要"作秀"。 伊以冲突： 1. 伊朗正式颁布法律，暂停与国际原子能机构合作。 2. 伊朗外交部长：当前伊朗没有重启核问题谈判的计划。 3. 以色列财政和税务局数据显示，与伊朗的战争损失估计为30亿美元。 金十数据整理：中东局势跟踪（6月27日） 加沙冲突： 1. 以色列国防军将在约旦河谷地区举行军事演习。 2. 消息人士称，华盛顿将承认以色列对约旦河西岸的部分主权。 6. 美国国防部长赫格塞思：未获悉任何情报显示伊朗在美国袭击前移走了高浓缩铀材料。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 ...

跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 欧盟认为美袭击前伊朗转移了浓缩铀 金十数据6月26日讯，据英国金融时报报道，消息人士称，欧盟各国政府认为，在美国发动袭击之前， 伊朗从福尔多转移了浓缩铀，铀被运往不同地点。 ...