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日度策略参考-20250624
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 07:51
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].
以伊“十二日战争”戛然而止:各自完成“目标”,新博弈开启
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-24 07:42
以色列与伊朗持续12天的激烈冲突,在美国和卡塔尔的斡旋下停火。 这几日的中东局势如同过山车,形势急转直下,又突然停火止战。 据新华社报道,美国总统特朗普24日称,以色列和伊朗停火协议现已生效,警告各方不要违反协议。美国东部时 间24日凌晨,他在社交媒体上用英文大写单词发布简短帖文说:"停火协议现已生效,请勿违反!" 此前特朗普23日傍晚率先在社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布,以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致,这场为期 12天的冲突即将结束。其实在特朗普这一突如其来的宣布前,伊朗和以色列分别释放出缓和局势的信号。 伊朗23日虽然对美国位于卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发动导弹袭击,但伊朗方面提前通知了美方,袭击未造成人员 伤亡。与此同时,以色列也已向伊朗发出信息,称以方目标是"几天内"结束双方之间的军事冲突。 西北大学以色列研究中心主任王晋向第一财经记者表示,以色列和伊朗停火是必然的结果,因为这是一场消耗战 和持续战,双方都无法承受长期冲突带来的后果,"特别是对于以色列来说,推迟了伊朗的核能力发展,已基本完 成了目标,而伊朗也通过对以色列和美国的反击,保住了颜面。" 停火止战 对于这场冲突,特朗普将其称为"十二日战争 ...
停火生效后,伊朗向以色列发射导弹
news flash· 2025-06-24 07:35
停火生效后,伊朗向以色列发射导弹 以色列国防军:不久前以色列国防军确认从伊朗向以色列领土发射的导弹。防御系统正在运行以拦截威 胁。收到警报后民众必须进入保护区,并留在那里直至另行通知。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 ...
以伊停火暂缓中东“油阀”危机?油价坐上“跳楼机”,油气股跌麻了!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-24 05:59
Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil falling nearly 9% and over 7% respectively [1] - In the Asia-Pacific market, WTI crude futures initially dropped over 5%, and as of the report, both WTI and ICE Brent crude were down over 2% [1] - Gold prices also saw a decline of 0.3% amid the easing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Hong Kong oil and gas stocks experienced sharp declines, with Baikin Oil Services plunging nearly 30%, Shandong Molong down over 18%, and Sinopec Oilfield Services falling over 14% [2][3] - In the A-share market, oil and gas service stocks also faced significant losses, with companies like Beiken Energy and Zhun Oil shares hitting the daily limit down [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Trump's unilateral announcement of a ceasefire was met with skepticism, as both Israel and Iran did not confirm the agreement, with Iran's foreign minister stating no ceasefire "agreement" had been reached [6][8] - The ongoing conflict continued despite the announcement, with reports of missile attacks from Iran towards Israel [6] - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, was highlighted, with previous threats from Iran to close it, which could have led to oil prices soaring to $120-$130 per barrel [11]
原油跳水超10%!伊朗袭击美军事基地,为何油价不涨反跌
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-23 23:30
Group 1 - International oil prices have retraced all gains since the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict, with WTI and Brent crude contracts dropping nearly 9% [1] - Following the Iranian missile attack on the U.S. base in Qatar, oil markets began to sell off, despite no disruptions reported in Qatar's energy transportation or production [3][4] - The U.S. energy companies have reduced the number of oil and gas drilling rigs for eight consecutive weeks, marking the lowest level since November 2021 [5] Group 2 - The Iranian missile strike was perceived as a calculated response, with analysts suggesting it was designed to avoid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The shipping costs for supertankers have more than doubled in a week, reaching over $60,000 per day, indicating increased market volatility [7] - There are concerns about potential shipping delays as vessel owners aim to minimize time spent in the Strait of Hormuz, with some vessels opting to wait outside the region [8][9]
重磅!特朗普:以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火
证券时报· 2025-06-23 22:47
当地时间6月23日,美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示,以色列和伊朗已同意全面停火。 特朗普发文时间为美国东部时间23日18时,特朗普称,双方停火将于大约6小时后开始,也就是美国东部时间24日零时。停火协议涉及两个12小时的停火期,伊朗 将启动首次12小时停火,以色列将随后进行第二次12小时停火,24小时后,战争将正式宣布结束。 以色列和伊朗暂未有相关的官方表态。 在特朗普宣布双方同意停火的同时,据总台记者了解,几分钟前,伊朗首都德黑兰东北部区域发生巨大爆炸,居住在该区域的民众告诉总台记者,爆炸发生前,"听 到战机飞过的轰鸣声"。 特朗普:伊朗对美国摧毁其核设施的回应"非常软弱" 当地时间6月23日,特朗普在社交媒体上发文表示,伊朗对美国摧毁其核设施的正式回应"非常软弱",这在美国的意料之中,并且也进行了非常有效的反击。 伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书处23日晚也发布声明称,此次导弹数量与美方袭击伊朗核设施时所使用的炸弹数量相同,被打击的美军基地远离卡塔尔的居民区和城 市基础设施。 俄罗斯再次呼吁停止升级中东局势 俄罗斯外交部6月23日夜间发布声明,称美国和以色列对伊朗的袭击正导致中东及波斯湾地 ...
整理:中东局势跟踪(6月24日)
news flash· 2025-06-23 20:55
其他: 金十数据整理:中东局势跟踪(6月24日) 伊以冲突: 1. 伊朗——①伊朗实施报复,导弹打击美国驻卡塔尔空军基地。特朗普回应伊朗报复:感谢伊朗提前通 知。②伊朗官员称,将继续对美国的袭击进行报复,重申若谈判则需停止对伊朗的攻击。③伊朗方面只 对美国在中东的一处基地进行了打击(美官员称未击中、无伤亡),且未有封锁霍尔木兹海峡的迹象, 原油暴跌9%。④伊朗称以色列再次袭击福尔多核设施。消息人士称军袭击了通往福尔多核设施的通 道,而非核设施本身。⑤革命卫队:(在"真实承诺-3"第21轮打击中)第一次用Qadr H导弹打击以色 列。 2. 美国——①消息人士称,自上周末美国打击伊朗核设施以来,美国中东问题特使威特科夫一直与伊朗 官员保持联系。②美官员称伊朗导弹未击中美军基地。③特朗普:伊朗已正式对我们摧毁其核设施的行 动作出反应,但回应非常微弱。几乎没有造成任何损失。祝贺世界,是时候实现和平了。 3. 以色列——①以色列军方:对德黑兰完成有史以来最大规模攻击行动。②美媒:以色列寻求尽快结束 与伊朗的冲突。④以政府:我们在伊朗的目标不是政权更替,但这可能是附带的结果。当以色列在伊朗 核和弹道导弹计划上的目标得到 ...
消息人士:美国叙利亚主要基地已全面戒备
news flash· 2025-06-23 17:34
消息人士:美国叙利亚主要基地已全面戒备 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 金十数据6月24日讯,据叙利亚安全消息人士:美国在叙利亚的主要基地已全面戒备,以应对可能来自 伊朗或与伊朗有关联的团体的攻击。 ...
一名西方外交官称,自周一中午以来,伊朗对美国在卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发出了“可信”的威胁。
news flash· 2025-06-23 16:33
一名西方外交官称,自周一中午以来,伊朗对美国在卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发出了"可信"的威胁。 跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅美国VS伊朗动态 +订阅 ...
欧洲央行管委Nagel:鉴于高度不确定性 欧洲央行无法就特定利率路径做出承诺
news flash· 2025-06-23 16:14
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is unable to commit to a specific interest rate path due to high uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and the situation in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB, highlighted that the most significant uncertainty for future monetary policy is the unpredictable U.S. trade policies [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs, implemented under Trump's administration, remains unclear, particularly whether they will lead to inflation or deflation [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in the Middle East is also a critical factor contributing to the uncertainty surrounding the ECB's monetary policy decisions [1]