1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,472, with a basis of 188, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,690, with a basis of 38, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. The supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,145, with a basis of 375, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会举行，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强主题演讲《中国新篇章： 科技 与再平衡》。 邢自强表示，依托丰富的人才储备，中国处于AI创新前沿，中国大语言模型的性价比较高。AI既能增 益、也能替代劳动力，缓解人工智能对劳动力市场造成的扰动，还需更多政策支持。 邢自强认为，人形机器人5万亿美元全球市场大幕拉开，预测到2050年人形机器人累计应用规模将达到 10亿台，其中约30%来自中国。 附演讲PPT 美降温超预期,但持久性缓和仍难以实现 中美缓和超预期 然而在竞争性对抗格局下，中美缓和仍较为懿弱 | | 货量进口 如果大豆 | 2025 Jan | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一点 在的按照片 | - 10 2 2 10 10 2 2 4 10 10 2 2 10 | | | | | | 全身实质性描述明新芬太原资讯 | Sels | NULL | | | BOTACUL 201202 ...

自从第五轮谈判后，中美两国关系已有明显的回暖迹象。然而，出乎意料的是，密苏里州总检察长哈纳 威趁此时提出了对中国的诉讼请求，要求按照3月的判决结果索赔1700亿元，连本带利。这一举动引发 了广泛关注。 令人意外的是，一向强硬对华的特朗普，在面对这一请求时竟然保持了沉默。究其原因，主要是由于近 期英伟达等美国企业的市值暴跌，这让特朗普意识到，继续与中国对抗对自己没有任何好处。 美国历任总统中，特朗普的反华态度最为明显。但他显然没有预料到，即使不依赖中国的稀土或不进口 大豆，依然可能影响到自己的选票。在美国大豆农民面临困境时，特朗普的内心也不好受。毕竟，这些 农民是他忠实的支持者，没有他们的支持，2026年的中期选举将面临巨大挑战。 中国也理解到，在中美会晤中，购买美国农产品是必定要讨论的话题。因此，中国在10月29日象征性地 购买了18万吨大豆。这一举动既给了美方一根救命稻草，又在试探美国的诚意。如果特朗普接受了这一 举措，未来合作的空间依然存在。如果美国继续高高在上的态度，中国也毫不在乎，反正大豆可以从其 他地方购买，巴西和阿根廷的价格更低且没有政治附加条件。 尽管如此，美国并非完全不识趣，特朗普在11月3日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Core View - The prices of oils and fats are in a consolidation phase with a neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic supply of oils and fats. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamental situation of oils and fats is neutral with stable import inventory [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamental situation of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Niño weather [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 118 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 58 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 56 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] Demand - No specific data or analysis on demand is provided in the given content except for the mention of demand-related items in the table of contents Price Forecast - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8100 - 8500 [2] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Other Factors - The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase [2][3][4] - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil tremor season [5] - Bearish factors include the relatively high historical price of oils and fats, continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oils and fats, weak macroeconomic conditions, and high expected production of related oils and fats [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares in China - **Market Sentiment**: A-share sentiment has softened due to year-end profit-taking and increased volatility in the US market, with a cautiously constructive outlook maintained by the company [1][2][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Sentiment**: - The weighted MSASI (Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator) decreased by 1% to 50% compared to the previous cut-off date, and the 1MMA (1-Month Moving Average) dropped by 4% to 61% [2]. - Average Daily Turnover (ADT) for A-shares decreased by 6% to RMB 1,801 billion, while ChiNext turnover rose by 2% to RMB 506 billion [2]. - **Net Inflows**: - Southbound trading recorded net inflows of USD 2 billion from November 20 to November 26, with year-to-date net inflows reaching USD 167 billion [3]. - **Government Policy**: - Beijing is considering interest subsidies to lower mortgage costs, which could support listings and stabilize prices. A broad 100bps subsidy could cost approximately RMB 400 billion annually [4]. - The implementation of such policies could lead to a gradual recovery in housing demand and stabilize prices in higher-tier cities [4]. - **Market Volatility**: - Chinese equities have experienced heightened volatility since October, with a potential US market correction posing a significant risk to global risk assets, including Chinese equities [13]. - However, A-shares have shown the lowest correlation with US markets, suggesting potential for relative outperformance [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Foreign Investor Sentiment**: Positive feedback from foreign investors indicates a growing interest in the Chinese equity market, with expectations for continued net inflows in the coming year [14]. - **Catalysts for Improvement**: Key catalysts for a more bullish outlook on China include improved US-China relations and a more aggressive fiscal policy, particularly regarding housing inventory [15][16]. - **Earnings Estimate Revisions**: The breadth of consensus earnings estimate revisions remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [2]. - **Methodology of MSASI**: The MSASI is constructed using 12 individual indicators to capture various dimensions of investor sentiment, normalized to reduce noise and reflect medium-term trends [17][26]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the importance of monitoring various metrics such as ChiNext turnover, A-share turnover, and margin financing to gauge market sentiment and activity [19][20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the A-share market dynamics, investor sentiment, government policies, and potential catalysts for future market performance.

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing signs of bottoming out, with key risks such as US-China trade tensions and the impact of the "takeout war" on internet sector profitability being sufficiently released, indicating limited downside potential for current market levels [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow fluctuations this week, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase. The market is nearing a state where negative factors have been largely priced in, leading to a relatively stable outlook [1]. - The sentiment indicators remain in a pessimistic range, indicating a lack of strong catalysts for market movement, which points towards opportunities for left-side positioning [1]. Key Risk Factors Released - US-China relations have stabilized following recent communications between leaders, reducing short-term uncertainty [2]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts have rebounded, with the probability of a December FOMC rate cut exceeding 80% [2]. - Concerns regarding the impact of the "takeout war" on leading internet companies have peaked, with recent earnings reports from Alibaba and Meituan showing stability and signs of reduced subsidy pressures [2]. Capital Flow and Market Sentiment - Southbound net purchases of Hong Kong stocks decreased to HKD 19.8 billion, down from HKD 38.6 billion the previous week, but seasonal effects suggest potential for increased inflows in December [3]. - Foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks increased to USD 1.43 billion, indicating a positive trend despite seasonal tightening of capital [3]. - The potential unlock amount for December is approximately HKD 120 billion, which is manageable compared to previous months [3]. Earnings Guidance and Sector Focus - The current earnings disclosure period for Hong Kong stocks is nearing its end, with 67% of market capitalization having reported. Focus should be on sectors with improved fundamentals, particularly consumer goods and healthcare, which have shown stable earnings expectations [3]. - Recent adjustments in revenue and earnings forecasts indicate a mixed outlook, with consumer goods showing an upward revision of 2.8% while sectors like automotive and technology hardware have seen significant downward adjustments [3]. Investment Opportunities - Investors with a higher risk appetite may consider gradually building positions in the market, particularly in sectors where earnings expectations have stabilized post-adjustment [3]. - The current market environment suggests that investors should look for opportunities in consumer goods and healthcare sectors, which have shown resilience and potential for growth [3].

Core Insights - The latest report from the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association indicates that the private fund industry has reached a record high of 22.05 trillion yuan as of October 2025, surpassing the previous peak of 20.81 trillion yuan in September 2023 [1][3]. Private Fund Scale - As of October 2025, there are 19,367 registered private fund managers managing 137,905 funds with a total scale of 22.05 trillion yuan. This includes 7,592 managers of private securities investment funds, 11,594 managers of private equity and venture capital funds, 6 managers of private asset allocation funds, and 175 managers of other private investment funds [2]. Highlights of Growth - The significant growth in private fund scale is attributed to two main factors: 1. The private securities investment fund sector has seen its scale exceed 7 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 7.01 trillion yuan, with new registrations in October amounting to 429.20 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% of all new registrations [4]. 2. Other types of funds, including private equity and venture capital funds, have also experienced steady growth, with their scales reaching 11.18 trillion yuan and 3.56 trillion yuan respectively, contributing to the overall increase in private fund scale [4]. Stock Private Fund Positioning - As of November 14, 2025, the stock private fund positioning index has risen to 81.13%, marking a significant increase of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week. This is the highest level in nearly 112 weeks, driven by an increase in the willingness of medium-position private funds to increase their holdings [5]. Factors Driving Increased Positions - The rise in private fund positions is driven by three main factors: 1. The continuous upward trend in the A-share market since August has improved the performance of private fund products, boosting institutional confidence in increasing positions [6]. 2. Ongoing positive signals from policy levels regarding the long-term healthy development of the capital market, alongside a clear trend of residents shifting assets towards equity markets [6]. 3. Large private funds, as industry benchmarks, are more willing to concentrate their investments in sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, capturing structural opportunities [6]. Outlook on A-shares - Investment firms like Dongshuiquan express optimism about the future of A-shares, noting the increasing importance of the capital market in wealth allocation and a strategic shift in national policy towards the capital market. Expectations for a long-term bull market in A-shares are growing, with a shift in market pricing logic from valuation-driven to fundamental-driven [7]. Market Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate that while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have seen a rebound in valuations, there is no systemic bubble. The capital market may experience temporary disturbances, but a systemic downturn is unlikely. Focus is shifting towards sectors with structural growth potential that can maintain profitability without relying on overall economic recovery [7].

Group 1 - The core message of the article highlights the interconnectedness of recent events between China and the U.S., including gold repatriation, soybean trade, and discussions on AI chip exports, suggesting a nuanced approach to their relationship rather than outright reconciliation [1][10] Group 2 - China's gold reserves have increased for 12 consecutive months, surpassing 70 million ounces, as a strategy to reduce risk and stabilize its economic foundation amid global financial uncertainties [4] - The recent shipment of U.S. soybeans to China marks a significant moment in trade relations, indicating that despite political tensions, there remains a willingness to engage in mutually beneficial trade [6] - The ongoing discussions in the U.S. regarding the potential easing of AI chip export restrictions to China reflect the complexities of balancing national security concerns with economic interests, particularly for companies like Nvidia [8] Group 3 - The combination of gold repatriation, soybean purchases, and AI chip discussions illustrates a new phase in U.S.-China relations, characterized by pragmatic engagement rather than emotional ties, with both countries seeking to explore common ground while maintaining their respective interests [10]

11月24日，中美两国高层进行的通话引起了全球的广泛关注。这些年，中美之间不断发生摩擦，这使得许多涉及中美贸易的国家和企业感到 紧张。因为中美两国经济体量庞大，他们的每一个决定和行动都可能对全球经济产生巨大影响。以特朗普上任后的关税政策为例，每当他提 高关税，许多小公司往往会因此失去订单；白宫发布一项禁令，甚至可能导致一个行业的衰落。而如果中国决定控制稀土出口，全球的制造 业大国就会急忙派人前来中国争取出口许可。可以说，世界上大多数国家都无法忽视中美两国之间的博弈。从特朗普第一任期开始，到如 今，跨国企业在中美之间承受了不少压力。不过，目前有了好消息，或许这样的紧张局面正在发生改变。 就在特朗普计划两次访问中国的消息刚传出时，美国却突然宣布中国将购买8700万吨美国大豆，这一消息引发了人们对中美关系在明年可能 发生变化的猜测。 因此，美国可能需要调整其经济政策。虽然特朗普不愿意完全放弃加税这个杀手锏，但现实情况并不允许他随意操作。毕竟，美国政府并没 有什么手段能彻底压制中国，每次对中国的制裁措施，实际上也会影响到美国自身。如果美国能够与中国保持良好关系，把对抗转化为合 作，这对美国来说无疑是件好事，而全球经济 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the gradual improvement of China-US relations, highlighted by three significant events [1] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 74.09 million ounces, which is still below the global average of 15% [3][27] - The increase in gold reserves aims to optimize foreign exchange reserves and reduce risks associated with excessive dollar assets, acting as a "safety cushion" for the economy [5] Group 2 - China has resumed large-scale purchases of US soybeans, with 3 million tons valued at approximately $1.5 billion, marking a significant trade development since May [10][12] - This soybean purchase is strategically timed ahead of the US midterm elections, benefiting agricultural states that are crucial for the Republican Party [12][14] - The US is considering the export of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China, which could significantly impact the AI chip market and reflects ongoing negotiations between the two countries [15][19] Group 3 - The article suggests that these developments indicate a pragmatic approach to trade, with both countries seeking mutual benefits, contrasting with the tensions seen during the 2018 trade war [24][26] - Despite the positive signals, underlying differences remain, particularly regarding chip exports, which are still under intense debate in the US [26] - The overall economic interdependence of China and the US, accounting for over 40% of global GDP, emphasizes the need for cooperation rather than confrontation [29]