Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The Ministry of Finance announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from government bonds starting August 8, which may increase issuance pressure on government bonds[1] - The attractiveness of interest rate bonds is expected to decrease, potentially driving institutional funds towards risk assets[1] - Short-term interest rates may decline due to the increased value of existing bonds, while medium to long-term rates will depend on economic fundamentals and policy direction[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points[2] - The manufacturing PMI for July fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] - The weighted average interest rate for new commercial loans in Q2 was reported at 3.09%[2] Group 3: International Trade and Tariffs - The US has implemented a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products effective August 1, impacting market dynamics[2] - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%[2] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are approximately 45%[2] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected tightening of liquidity and changes in monetary policy that could affect investment behavior[3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-5-21） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求季节性回升，库存低位小幅减少，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，下游地产行业继续处下行周期； 偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，后市需求降温，贸易战有缓和迹象，国内政策或发力，震荡偏空思路对待 2、基差：螺纹现货价3190，基差132；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存434.88万吨，环比减少，同比减少；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 利多： 产量库存维持低位，消费环比增长。 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力；中性 2、基差：热卷现货价3280，基差78；偏多 3、库存：全国33个主 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For螺纹 (Rebar)**: The demand is seasonally rising, and the inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level. However, the purchasing willingness of traders remains weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the real - estate market remaining weak, the future demand may cool down. Considering the signs of trade - war easing and potential domestic policy support, a range - bound view is taken, with rb2510 expected to trade between 3070 - 3140 [2]. - **For热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Both supply and demand have weakened, the inventory continues to decline, and exports are blocked. With signs of trade - war easing and potential domestic policy support, a range - bound view is taken, with hc2510 expected to trade between 3190 - 3250 [6]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand has a seasonal increase, inventory is low and decreasing, but downstream real - estate is in a downward cycle and trader purchasing is weak [2]. - **热卷**: Supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked [6]. Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3220, and the basis is 122, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3270, and the basis is 53, indicating a bullish signal [6]. Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities is 508.6 million tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities is 282.86 million tons, with a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, considered neutral [6]. Market Chart Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the 20 - day moving average is downward, considered neutral [6]. Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - **热卷**: The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. Factors Analysis - **利多 (Positive factors)**: For both products, production and inventory are at low levels, and consumption is increasing month - on - month. For热卷, the demand remains higher than the same period [2][3][7]. - **利空 (Negative factors)**: The downstream real - estate industry's downward cycle continues, and the terminal demand is weak and lower than the same period. For热卷, the downstream demand outlook is pessimistic [3][8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and its dynamics in the context of macroeconomic factors, particularly focusing on interest rates, government debt supply, and the impact of U.S.-China relations on the market [1][2][3][5][8]. Key Points and Arguments Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Current funding rates are inverted compared to bond market rates, raising market concerns; however, historical experience suggests maintaining a loose monetary policy in the face of uncertainty is advisable [1][3][4]. - The central bank has signaled a direction of easing through reverse repos and MLF operations, indicating that even without immediate further easing, hesitation should be avoided to prevent missing opportunities [1][4][15]. - The overall view for the bond market in May remains bullish despite a lack of immediate easing signals; historical trends show that May typically sees downward movement in bond markets, except in specific years due to various economic factors [2][13]. U.S.-China Relations - Uncertainty in U.S.-China relations continues to exert pressure on the market; recent comments from Trump about potential tariff reductions should not be overestimated, as substantial progress in negotiations is still lacking [5][7][8]. - The trade negotiations have not yielded significant breakthroughs, and the ongoing trade war initiated by the U.S. requires more time for resolution [5][7][8]. Domestic Economic Conditions - Internal macro and micro pressures are becoming more evident, but the likelihood of the central bank returning to a tight funding state is low; thus, maintaining a bullish outlook is deemed more rational [6][10]. - Domestic policies have been adjusted to support enterprises, but these measures have not exceeded expectations, indicating a stable but cautious approach to economic management [8][9]. Government Debt Supply - April saw a peak in government debt supply, with total issuance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, but net financing was relatively low due to high maturities; May is expected to see a rebound in net financing to approximately 1.3 trillion yuan [11]. - The impact of government debt supply on the bond market is contingent on the central bank's cooperation, which is likely to increase amid rising uncertainties [11][12]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The primary drivers of interest rate declines since March have shifted to non-bank institutions, with a stable liability side supporting continued bullish strategies in the bond market [12][15]. - The current investment strategy should focus on long-duration investments, leveraging the positive signals from the central bank to maintain a bullish stance [15][16]. Predictions and Recommendations - Predictions regarding market points should be flexible; reliance on preset points may hinder effective operations, as market dynamics can lead to unexpected movements [17]. - The overall sentiment for the bond market remains optimistic, provided that no significant negative changes occur in credit, government debt, or other asset classes [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - High-frequency data has not yet shown significant impacts from tariffs and trade friction, indicating that the negative effects may manifest gradually [9][10]. - The production side has shown resilience, but demand indicators, particularly in new housing sales, have been weaker, necessitating close monitoring of shipping metrics [10].