市场人士指出，10年期收益率跌破4%具有重要信号意义，意味着交易员开始淡化对经济稳健增长的预期，转而 押注更具风险的情景。Wisdom Fixed Income Management投资组合经理Vincent Ahn表示，若收益率跌破3.75%， 债市将基本反映出"真实的增长恐慌"。他认为，当前债市走势"明显由就业和增长担忧主导"，而催化剂正是近期 蔓延的"AI冲击"担忧，这一主题已从科技板块扩散至宏观层面。 通常情况下，债券收益率下降有利于消费者、企业及政府融资成本。例如，根据房地美数据，新发放30年期固定 按揭贷款的平均利率本周已降至6%以下，为三年多来首次。但若收益率下行源于对经济或就业前景的担忧，则 往往伴随股市回落和风险资产抛售。 除AI因素外，市场还在消化其他不确定性，包括美伊核谈判未达成协议，以及股市波动加剧等。Interactive Brokers经济学家Jose Torres指出，科技股若持续走弱，可能拖累消费支出，同时若市场对AI前景的热情降温，也 可能压制整体经济表现。 美国国债周五大幅走强，基准10年期美债收益率跌破4%关口，创四个月新低，尽管1月生产者价格指数（PPI） 意外走高。本 ...

欢迎来到马莲第一期大摩宏观策略谈马莲开工的首周A股还在休息港股已经开始脸天了 包括525和周一开门就有震荡 先跌后涨主要原因一个就是美国关税一夜生变大家会看到全球跟美国谈的这些贸易谈判是不是在起波折其次对于中国今年物价能不能实现再通胀摆脱通缩这个辩论还是比较白热化的 最后更重要的从海外市场也可以借鉴AI人工智能从普涨变成了分化一方面大家对于资本开支上修出现了不一样的市场反馈另外更重要的就是AI对于其他行业冲击有点像多米诺骨牌似的展开了好像每周都会大幅的冲击一个新的行业 所以马年到底投资市场能否实现一个TG不稳今天我们就试图跟我们的同事们一起来关注这三个议题包括了我们的股票的首席策略师Laura我们的中国经济学家蔡志鹏博士 以及我们也在消费的寒风中寻找亮点特别是旅游行业是否能保持热度这也比较应景跟刚刚过去的九天长假大伙可能在天南海北相互经历的这些游历也能互为印证所以我们交易行业的分析师谦伦也会上线来分析首先我像往常一样抛砖引玉讨论第一个就是美国关税的新变数我们的结论是 尽管短期之内美国对海外各国的民意关税的税率会下一个台阶但是中期看五到六个月之内还是有一些不确定性的它会动用一些其他的工具组合更加定向的对重点国家 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a 21% decline in UK fintech investment in 2025, despite growth in global and EMEA fintech investments [2][5] - In 2025, UK fintech companies received $10.97 billion (£8 billion), down from $13.35 billion the previous year, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - The EMEA region saw over $29 billion invested in fintech companies in 2025, an increase from approximately $26.5 billion in 2024 [2] Group 2 - The UK remains a major capital recipient in the EMEA region, accounting for about one-third of total investments, despite the decline [2][6] - Revolut, a UK-based bank, secured $3 billion in investment, the largest single investment in Europe for the year [2] - The report from KPMG attributes the decline in UK fintech investment to geopolitical tensions, investor scrutiny, and a high-interest rate environment [2][5] Group 3 - Global fintech investment reached $116 billion in 2025, up from $95 billion in 2024, indicating a positive trend despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risks [3] - The combination of a stronger exit market, clearer regulatory environment, and accelerated innovation is seen as a constructive foundation for sustained investment and long-term value creation [3] Group 4 - AI adoption in the financial services sector in the UK is widespread, with all but 1% of companies utilizing AI technology [4][7] - AI is described as the "connecting organization" in the financial industry, driving advancements in real-time fraud detection, personalized product recommendations, and dynamic customer engagement [4] - Institutions are now focusing on where AI can provide tangible value and how to deploy it responsibly, rather than debating its adoption [4]

智通财经获悉，周三，美国股市回吐早盘涨幅最终收跌，尽管就业数据强劲提振市场，但对人工智能 (AI)冲击多个行业的担忧抑制了此轮反弹。 标普500指数微跌收盘，盘中一度有望刷新历史收盘新高，最终悉数回吐涨幅。科技权重集中的纳斯达 克100指数收涨0.3%，盘中最高上涨1%;而芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)徘徊在18附近。 "就业报告发布后的反弹有些出人意料，毕竟近期市场更关注美联储，而非经济本身，"Nationwide首席 策略师Mark Hackett表示，"此轮抛售主要来自科技板块，延续了过去几个月的格局——国际股与价值股 领涨。" 一项衡量美股"七巨头"的指数下跌0.6%，跟踪软件股的ETF大跌2.6%。 一周多来，由于市场担忧AI对行业带来颠覆性冲击，软件股持续承压。投资者转而拥抱业务难以被AI 替代的公司。 房地产服务类股周三也走低，因市场评估该类企业面对AI技术冲击的脆弱性。世邦魏理仕(CBRE.US)重 挫12%，仲量联行(JLL.US)与Cushman & Wakefield(CWK.US)也双双下跌。 好消息反成坏消息 "成长股与动量股正承受最大压力，因市场预期利率将在更长时间维持高位， ...

Core Insights - The dominance of a few tech giants in profits is fundamentally changing as the earnings season progresses, with the Russell 1000 Value Index outperforming growth indices since mid-December 2022 [1] - The number of sectors in the S&P 500 showing positive growth has increased from 6 to 8, with nearly half of the companies reporting double-digit growth rates, and a median growth rate close to 10%, marking a four-year high [1] Group 1: Earnings Growth and Market Dynamics - The overall earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 has risen to 14.5%, a four-year high, indicating a broadening of growth beyond just large tech stocks [3] - Market analysts suggest a style rotation is occurring, driven by cyclical factors rather than a decline in tech giants, signaling an end to the previously rare concentration of profits [3] - The current economic phase is characterized as a "robust broad expansion," which typically benefits widespread corporate profits, as confirmed by the earnings reports of S&P 500 constituents [4] Group 2: Sector Rotation and Valuation Shifts - There has been a significant rotation towards "AI-immune" sectors such as utilities, food, mining, construction, and telecommunications, reflecting a reevaluation of capital-intensive and traditional industry valuations [4] - The weakening dollar has notably impacted corporate earnings, with export-oriented S&P 500 companies experiencing higher earnings and revenue growth compared to those focused on domestic business [5] - Nvidia Corp. plays a crucial role in the earnings growth of S&P 500 companies with significant international exposure; excluding Nvidia, the blended earnings growth rate would drop from 17.7% to 12.0% [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a shift in investor sentiment towards companies that cannot be easily replicated by artificial intelligence (AI), as technology stocks face declines [1] - The S&P 500 index has dropped by 0.9% this week, primarily due to concerns over AI disrupting business models, particularly in the software sector [1] - In contrast, sectors such as residential construction, transportation, and heavy machinery manufacturing have seen strong gains, with the consumer staples sector rising by 5.2%, marking its best weekly performance since 2022 [1] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, indicating a preference for traditional economic giants over tech stocks [1] - This trend contradicts the logic that has driven the U.S. stock market bull run over the past three years, where tech stocks were seen as the main market drivers due to expectations of economic transformation through AI [1] - Investors are rotating towards "anti-AI" sectors, which possess tangible, real-world attributes, as noted by JonesTrading's chief market strategist Michael O'Rourke, suggesting that dull industries may now hold unprecedented appeal [1]

Over more than three decades as a marketer, I’ve seen how seismic changes in technology can disrupt plans and programs. What worked a few years ago can quickly become obsolete.The rise of email marketing, web content and SEO, social media and real-time engagement, and now AI have each disrupted what all kinds of people and organizations are doing.  I’m a member of the Marketing AI Industry Council, an invite-only think tank of industry leaders who share a passion for exploring the impact of AI on the market ...

以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者徐奇渊 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报 道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的必读刊物。 文/中国社会科学院美国研究所研究员 徐奇渊 20 26年达沃斯论坛落幕，人们意识到，一个以交易、筹码、不确定性和 多极博弈为特征的新时代已然开启，"中国"一词高频出现在各类分论坛中 ——正如资深观察者所言："中国没有占据舞台，却占据了坐标系"。 从1月19日至23日，笔者随团参加了在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛。由于行程1月初才最终确定，只能预订到距离会场较远的酒店，距离会场两小时车 程（每天往返四小时），不过每晚价格仍约2800元。头一天上山的途中，笔者还遭遇了比往年更严格的安检，抽查过程用了半个多小时。价格如此之高， 安检如此之严，这次论坛注定不平凡。 果然，论坛甫一开幕便呈现出两个截然不同的叙事维度：一边是科技巨擘们对人工智能（AI）未来的热烈畅想——英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调，AI正成为新 的基础设施，而且已经触发"人类史上最大规模的基础设施建设"。马斯克的意外 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that the UK is experiencing the highest net layoff rate due to AI among developed countries, reaching 8% over the past year, which is double the international average [1][2] - Despite achieving an average productivity increase of 11.5% through AI, UK companies are less likely to create new jobs compared to their US counterparts [1][2] - The current economic environment in the UK, characterized by rising wage costs, slow economic growth, and political instability, is exacerbating the impact of AI on employment [1][3] Employment Impact - The study highlights that UK companies have cut or refrained from filling about a quarter of positions due to AI, with a significant reduction in job vacancies for roles likely to be affected by AI, such as software developers and consultants [2][3] - Young workers in the UK are facing a dual pressure from AI disrupting entry-level white-collar jobs and tax policies affecting hiring in retail and hospitality sectors, leading to a youth unemployment rate of 13.7%, the highest since 2020 [3][4] Productivity vs. Employment - While AI has the potential to enhance the UK's economic growth by increasing productivity by up to 0.8 percentage points over the next decade, the immediate focus remains on the worsening employment crisis, particularly for young and white-collar workers [5][6] - Employers are most likely to reduce early career positions requiring two to five years of experience, indicating a shift in hiring practices due to AI [4][6]

1月21日，世界经济论坛2026年年会进入第三天。随着全球主要经济体领导人和国际组织机构负责 人陆续发表讲话，会议中心内各国嘉宾与媒体记者摩肩接踵，论坛年会气氛更加热烈。在阿尔卑 斯山的凛冽寒风中，关于合作的话题日益升温，越来越多目光投向中国，看好中国经济发展为世 界提供的"机遇清单"。 达沃斯看好中国机遇，源于中国经济展现的巨大韧性与潜能。 2025年，中国经济向新向优发展，实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。规模以上高技术制造业增 加值占比升到17.1%，最终消费支出对经济增长贡献率超过五成。19日论坛开幕当天，最新公布 数据显示2025年中国经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成，国际货币基金组织宣布上调2026年中国经 济增长预期。 过去五年，中国经济总量实现"四连跳"，突破140万亿元，实现5.4%左右的年均增速，对全球经济 增长的贡献率稳定在30%左右。 与会嘉宾认为，面对多重风险挑战，中国经济顶压前行，展现强大韧性，继续发挥全球经济增长 主要引擎作用，红利效应进一步凸显。在不确定的世界中，中国始终是最大的确定性。 达沃斯看好中国机遇，源于中国前沿科技助力全球经济复苏。 积极扩大自主开放、主动对接国际高标准经贸 ...