分析师指出，2025年美股软件股表现落后于大盘——IGV软件指数上涨6%，而标普500指数上涨16%。相关软件股实际公布的业绩其实相 当稳健，但围绕AI的各种争论持续对估值倍数构成压力。 巴克莱将笛卡尔物流系统集团的评级从"持股观望"上调至"增持"，并将其目标价从106美元上调至105美元。分析师认为，该公司最新公 布的2026财年第三季度业绩是一个积极的转折点，但考虑到其近期表现(去年股价下跌21%，而IGV指数上涨8%)，这一转折点被市场低 估了。 分析师表示："在我们看来，该公司最困难的时期已经过去，第三季度有机增长率从2026财年上半年因部分关税相关影响而创下的多年低 点重新加速。我们看到其持续的执行力以及2027财年上半年更容易的比较基数，将支撑其基础增长率保持稳定或略有改善，并且该公司 中期内通过小型补强收购推动非有机增长仍有空间。当前的市场环境以及管理层近期的评论，都预示着对该公司有利的并购环境。" Raimo Lenschow及其团队表示："我们认为这一情况将在2026年发生改变。在我们看来，应用软件公司将因比较基数变得更容易(终于摆 脱了疫情泡沫期的逆风)而获得增长支撑，同时定位良好的供应商 ...

◎记者 覃秘 和鲁老板一起来上课的还有他女儿。"我女儿在读研究生，正好这几天在家，我请她过来帮我学习，到 时候再教我。"鲁老板解释。 授课老师杨建是一位"90后"，大学毕业后一直从事服装设计工作，三年多前接触AI后果断转型，并最终 选择创业，帮助更多的服装从业者用好AI。 "AI是个超级工具。大型服装企业，AI应用已经比较成熟，众多的中小服装企业，也在积极探索尝 试。"杨建说，AI已经渗透到服装行业的各个环节，从设计、生产到营销、零售，正带来革命性的变 化。 这是杨建第一次来到武汉，来到汉正街。他说，很多年前就听说过"对内搞活看汉正街"，和"服二代"深 入交流后，感受到市场的活力。"来之前，我以为是个老批发市场，过来后发现，街面很新，老板们也 很年轻，那就有很多合作的机会。" 这一堂课程从1月9日开始，已持续三天。学员们主要是汉正街年轻的老板，又被称为"服二代"。 "大家的学习热情非常高。"活动组织者王瑞珏对上海证券报记者说，大多数学员都听完了全部课程，还 不断有新的学员加入。 王瑞珏是云尚产业互联网负责人。他打开自己的手机，工作微信群聊天记录显示，从1月8日下午发出培 训通知开始，不断有商户接龙报名，一直到 ...

智利《信使报》（电子版）12月19日报道，根据高盛集团发布的报告，人工智能 （AI）领域的投资将在未来几年创下新高。报告指出，亚马逊、微软和谷歌等大型超 大规模数据中心服务商在2025年的人工智能资本支出达到3000亿至3800亿美元，到2026 年可能超过5000亿美元，反映出人工智能在其增长战略中所占据的重要地位。预计与 人工智能相关的投资增长，将有力推动大规模技术基础设施和数据中心的进一步扩 张。此类投资的主要受益者包括半导体企业、数据中心运营商、科技硬件供应商以及 能源公司，这些企业的股价表现已超过其每股收益的预期增长。另据国际数据公司 （IDC）的研究报告，到2030年企业使用人工智能将为全球经济带来累计19.9万亿美元 的经济影响，约占当年全球GDP的3.5%。 （原标题：2026年全球人工智能投资或超过5000亿美元） ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report is that Asian stocks are expected to perform robustly in 2025, driven by favorable policies, strong domestic demand, and AI-driven innovations [1] - The report anticipates a continued decline in the US dollar, which historically benefits Asian stocks, and a globally accommodative monetary policy environment that may lead investors to shift from the US market to more attractively valued Asian economies [1] - The outlook for 2026 is positive for Asian stocks due to improved earnings prospects, favorable liquidity conditions, and ongoing structural reforms, presenting attractive investment opportunities for global investors [1] Group 2 - The next phase of growth in Asia will be driven by the real-world application of AI, with accelerated adoption in healthcare, finance, manufacturing, and e-commerce expected to unlock more earnings and boost productivity [2] - Asia's competitive advantage lies in its vast data ecosystem, cost-effective talent pool, and government-supported digital strategies, which will facilitate scalable AI solutions [2] - The report emphasizes a preference for companies with clear monetization paths, proprietary technologies, and integration capabilities that can incorporate AI into their overall business deployment [2] Group 3 - In China, the report maintains an optimistic outlook supported by structural growth drivers and clear policy focus, with domestic consumption expected to contribute approximately 60% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights China's commitment to breakthroughs in core technologies and the development of advanced manufacturing and emerging industries, such as semiconductors and green energy, to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains [2] - The report notes that industry consolidation is alleviating overcapacity issues in manufacturing, allowing leading companies to achieve sustained growth through advanced technologies and resources [2] Group 4 - In India, despite a lag in stock market performance compared to Asia and global peers in 2025, a turning point is expected in 2026, supported by stable consumption and investment trends [3] - Recent government measures, including reductions in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and personal income tax, are anticipated to ease household tax burdens and stimulate consumption, particularly benefiting sectors like consumer goods [3] - South Korea and Taiwan are expected to benefit from the ongoing technology cycle, especially in high-frequency storage and semiconductors, with long-term capacity growth anticipated due to rising AI application demand [3] Group 5 - ASEAN markets present attractive investment opportunities, although political uncertainties in some countries should be noted [4] - Singapore is highlighted for its stable economic outlook, supported by favorable policies and abundant liquidity, while Malaysia continues to attract global semiconductor and tech hardware companies [4] - The Philippines is expected to benefit from urbanization, a young population, and remittances, contributing to a solid foundation for long-term economic growth [4] - Overall, despite short-term uncertainties, Asia's large domestic market and evolving innovation ecosystem reinforce sustainable growth, with structural drivers continuing to support resilience in the region [4]

| Brokerage | 2026 S&P 500 index target | | --- | --- | | BofA Global Research | 7,100 | | Societe Generale | 7,300 | | Barclays | 7,400 | | UBS Global Research | 7,500 | | Jefferies | 7,500 | | HSBC | 7,500 | | J.P.Morgan | 7,500 | | Canaccord Genuity | 7,500 | | BNP Paribas | 7,500 | | Goldman Sachs | 7,600 | | Citigroup | 7,700 | | UBS Global Wealth Management | 7,700 | | Evercore ISI | 7,750 | | Morgan Stanley | 7,800 | | Seaport Research Partners | 7,800 | | Deutsche Bank | 8,000 | | Oppenheimer Asset ...

瑞银：中国股市估值仍具上调潜力 中新社上海12月22日电 (记者 姜煜)瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)22日发表机构观点称，中国股市 估值仍具上调潜力。 CIO指出，人工智能(AI)的创新和相关支出，将推动中国科技行业2026年盈利大幅增长。有利的流动性 和合理的估值也将为中国股市进一步上行助一臂之力。 CIO分析，中国股市今年表现强劲，估值高于历史平均水平，但远低于之前的峰值，亦低于全球同类市 场。2025年是中国科技创新爆发的一年，AI价值链的各层面都取得显著进展。中国的新AI模型展现了 技术领先能力，而政策支持强化了科技生态系统的韧性。2026年盈利强劲增长将推动中国科技股走高。 流动性增强、企业盈利预期良好和资金持续流入都将为中国股市带来上升的动力。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 在中国股市尤其是科技股的支撑下，CIO预计亚洲股市(日本除外)到2026年底将实 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report emphasizes the specific opportunities and risks faced by various sectors in an AI-driven, K-shaped economic environment, highlighting a constructive but selective investor sentiment [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Themes - Key investment themes for 2026 include long-term growth driven by AI and data center expansion, infrastructure development, and a shift towards high-quality growth and operational resilience [3][6]. - Companies with strong pricing power, long-term growth drivers, robust balance sheets, and those benefiting from transformative trends like data center expansion and infrastructure investment should be prioritized [3][6]. Group 2: Selected Stocks by Sector - The report lists selected stocks across various sectors, including technology (e.g., Arista Networks, Palo Alto Networks), industrials (e.g., Boeing, Caterpillar), healthcare (e.g., Eli Lilly, CVS Health), and energy (e.g., ExxonMobil, Schlumberger) [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The U.S. is expected to remain a global growth engine, driven by a resilient economy and an AI-driven supercycle, leading to record capital expenditures and rapid earnings expansion [6][8]. - Despite concerns about an AI bubble and valuation worries, current high valuation multiples are seen as justified due to anticipated above-trend earnings growth and increased shareholder returns [6][7]. Group 4: K-shaped Economic Recovery - The K-shaped economic recovery is creating a scenario of winners and losers, with a significant concentration of market gains among high-quality growth stocks [6][10]. - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 7,500 points by the end of 2026, with earnings growth expected to be between 13%-15% [7][12]. Group 5: AI and Capital Expenditure - 2026 is anticipated to be another strong year for AI stocks, with capital expenditures likely to exceed expectations as companies and governments accelerate spending to address infrastructure and computing power imbalances [9][12]. - Approximately 60% of S&P 500 companies are investing in AI, with 50% mentioning cost-saving benefits, indicating a growing focus on commercialization [9][12]. Group 6: Policy Environment and Market Dynamics - The dynamic policy environment is expected to drive differentiation among stock themes, with potential benefits from deregulation in sectors like finance and energy [13]. - Tactical opportunities are emerging in low-end consumer stocks and U.S. importers, with attractive valuations and potential short-term upside from fiscal stimulus related to the "Inflation Reduction Act" [13].

根据美国劳工部的数据，今年许多雇用白领员工的行业招聘活动已经放缓，同时受过大学教育的劳动者 的失业率也在逐步走高 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 金焱 发自华盛顿 编辑｜苏琦 在当前的技术和成本结构下，AI领域的巨额投资能否变现的问题越来越困扰投资者。美股市场科技股 持续出现剧烈波动，尤其是围绕甲骨文等公司的焦虑情绪挥之不去。当地时间12月17日周三，美股三大 指数集体收跌，纳指跌近2%，投资者继续从人工智能（AI）概念股中撤出资金。继此前被传部分数据 美国业内人士预计AI将在未来5年消除50%的初级白领岗位。 中心工程延期竣工后，甲骨文当天又传出坏消息，投资者对人工智能（AI）交易更加担忧。 AI和芯片 股拖累美股三大股指齐跌，标普道指四连跌；英伟达跌近4%，甲骨文跌超5%，CoreWeave跌超7%；特 斯拉跌超4%；投资者担心，当私募信贷市场开始收紧资助，AI基础设施建设的资金链有断裂的风险。 16日周二公布的非农就业报告未能就劳动力市场的健康状况提供足够清晰的信息，却再一次发出不祥信 号。总体失业率小幅上升至4.6%。10月和11月，信息和金融活动等拥有大量办公室职员的行业就业岗 位减少。 根据美国劳工部的数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from DBS Group indicates a slowdown in global economic growth but suggests that a recession can be avoided. Investment strategies should align with policy and market trends while diversifying to hedge risks, with a focus on technology, Asian markets excluding Japan, investment-grade bonds, and gold [1]. Macroeconomic Core Judgments - Global economic growth is slowing due to uncertainties in tariff policies, but the U.S. can avoid recession thanks to AI-related capital expenditures, fiscal stimulus, and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, inflation risks remain [1][19]. - The market is being driven by policy, with the Federal Reserve restarting its rate-cutting cycle and significant impacts from fiscal stimulus and tariff policies. The high U.S. debt level necessitates a low-interest-rate environment for financing [1]. Asset Allocation Views 1. Stock Market: Focus on Technology and Asian Markets - U.S. stock market: The technology sector is rated positively, driven by accelerated AI applications, while the overall U.S. stock market is rated neutral. The energy sector outlook is downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases suppressing oil prices [3][4]. - European stock market: Rated neutral, with improved economic growth prospects and attractive valuations, but tariffs and a stronger euro may pressure profit margins [5]. - Japanese stock market: Rated negatively due to high valuations and political uncertainties affecting policy execution, despite foreign capital inflows [6]. - Asian markets excluding Japan: Rated positively, with valuations approximately 30% lower than global averages, supported by Chinese policy stimulus, strong Indian economic growth, and resilient earnings [7]. 2. Bond Market: Preference for Short-Duration Investment-Grade Bonds - Investment-grade (IG) bonds: Rated positively, with attractive valuations in a rate-cutting cycle, focusing on 2-3 year short-duration, high-rated A/BBB bonds. Consider extending duration to 7-10 years if U.S. 10-year Treasury yields exceed 4.5% [7][8]. - High-yield (HY) bonds: Rated negatively due to historically low spreads and insufficient risk compensation, with rising default risks [8]. - Long-term bonds: Rated cautiously, as the steepening yield curve presents unfavorable risk-reward ratios [8]. 3. Foreign Exchange Market: Mild Weakening of the U.S. Dollar - U.S. dollar: Rated negatively, with a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and fiscal concerns leading to a gradual depreciation, though the decline is not expected to be sharp due to high real yields and resilient U.S. equities [9]. - Favorable currencies: Euro (due to divergence in ECB and Fed policies) and Australian dollar (supported by improved U.S.-China trade relations) [10]. - Asian currencies: The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately, while the Singapore dollar may weaken due to expectations of policy easing [11]. 4. Commodities and Alternative Investments: Focus on Hedging and Scarcity - Commodities: Overall demand is weak, with a focus on strategic commodities such as precious metals (due to safe-haven demand), rare earths (for technology/defense needs), and coffee (limited supply and tariff impacts). Oil price forecasts are downgraded due to OPEC+ production increases leading to oversupply [12]. - Gold: Rated strongly positively, supported by a weaker dollar, rate-cut expectations, ongoing central bank purchases, and de-dollarization trends, with a target of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [12]. - Alternative investments: Private equity, debt, and hedge funds are rated positively for providing non-market directional returns, diversifying risks, and enhancing portfolio resilience [13]. Core Investment Strategies - Leverage-based portfolio: Simultaneously allocate to income-generating assets (like investment-grade bonds and high-dividend stocks) and long-term growth assets (like technology and Asian equities) to balance returns and risks [14]. - Diversification hedging: Use gold, hedge funds, and private assets to hedge against downside risks and avoid impacts from single market volatility [14]. - Trend-following allocation: Capitalize on trends such as AI proliferation, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and valuation recovery in Asian markets while avoiding long-term bonds, high-yield debt, and weak sectors in mature markets [15].

中资股今年表现亮眼，高盛中国首席股票策略分析师刘劲津接受专访时指，随着估值回到合理水平，慢 牛行情下，中资股有望继续受到利好因素支撑，包括盈利增长、北水南下及美国减息等。他也表示，人 工智能(AI)故事短中期仍主导市场，国策支持下，继续看好AI板块。 至于DeepSeek时刻会否重现，他相信中国有机会再出现突破性的科技，只是中资科技股未必能重复今 年初的升势。刘劲津表示，这个时刻对于市场的震撼力可能就没有今年2月那么大，因已有一个预期， 还有股价已经升了那么多，尤其是AI板块。 然而，科技日新月异，他指，"淘汰战是一个时间的问题，其实每个新科技出来，都是将旧的科技去更 新，或者去做一个十大的洗牌"，更重要的是AI可以创造更加多商业机会，这会带动到广告、消费及其 他各样开支，下一步的想象空间可以很大。 刘劲津又指，今年中资股已累升约三成，这基本上来自估值修复，但当估值达到大约12、13倍的历史平 均水平时，未来回报增长需靠盈利。 "之后我们认为盈利会较今年有较大的反弹，今年大约有2%至3%左右的盈利增长，明年预期是14%，主 因今年基数较低，AI、出海、反内卷主题将对于明年盈利有较大的提升"。 他提到，过去一星 ...