Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of tariff policies on the global financial market, particularly focusing on the U.S. technology sector and the broader economic outlook amid ongoing uncertainties [2][11]. Group 1: Tariff Policies and Market Reactions - The Trump administration's decision to exempt certain consumer electronics and key components from tariffs is seen as a major relief for the U.S. technology sector, preventing a potential collapse [3][4]. - The S&P 500 index experienced a notable increase of 5.7% this week, marking its best weekly performance in November 2023, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.29% [5]. - The volatility in the market is expected to continue due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and the recent sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds [6][11]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Predictions - Analysts predict a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 ranging from 0.1% to 0.6% and unemployment rates potentially rising to nearly 5% next year [11][12]. - The consumer confidence index dropped sharply from 57.0 in March to 50.8 in April, indicating deteriorating consumer sentiment amid rising inflation expectations [9]. - High inflation and deteriorating financial conditions may prompt the European Central Bank to lower interest rates multiple times throughout the year [10]. Group 3: Upcoming Financial Reports and Events - Major tech companies, including ASML and TSMC, are set to release their quarterly earnings next week, which could further influence market sentiment [4]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak next week, with expectations that he will address the impacts of tariff policies and recent market volatility [9].

Group 1 - The recent policy shift provides significant relief for major tech companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft, particularly as Apple produces approximately 80% of its iPhones in China [4][5] - Wedbush analyst Dan Ives stated that the exemption from tariffs on popular consumer electronics and key components has temporarily saved the U.S. tech industry from a potential collapse, which could have set back the industry by a decade and slowed the progress of the AI revolution [4][5] - The announcement of tariff exemptions has alleviated the uncertainty that has plagued the market, as U.S. tech giants have limited alternatives outside of their Asian supply chains [5][7] Group 2 - Following the announcement of tariff exemptions, there is an expectation of an EPS recovery for companies within the Apple supply chain, as noted by Minsheng Securities [8] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing confusion regarding the implementation of these policies, with industry players taking a cautious approach as they await further details [10] - The recent tariff exemptions are reminiscent of previous exemptions granted by the Trump administration in 2018 and 2019, raising questions about their long-term effectiveness and potential future changes in policy [10]

2025.04. 12 本文字数：966，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 第一财经 程程、 冯迪凡 据参考消息转引媒体报道，美国海关与边境保护局(CBP)11日悄然发布了更新税则，豁免了包含自动 数据处理器、电脑、通信设备、显示器与模组、半导体相关等类别商品的进口税率，不受"对等关 税"影响。 报道称，部分商品若符合美国《协调关税税则》中所列明的分类号码，将可获得"对等关税"豁免。这 些商品包括电脑与周边设备、半导体制造设备、通信设备、存储设备、显示模组、半导体器件与集成 电路等。报道称，本次关税豁免适用于所有受特朗普"对等关税"影响的国家。 艾夫斯长期以来看多美国科技股，近期由于关税战，他的论调变得一度变得非常悲观。此前，他预测 一部美国产的iPhone手机售价将达到3500美元。 "对华关税将为美国消费者带来五级飓风的价格风暴。"艾夫斯形容称美国总统特朗普的关税政策及制 造业回流的构想，于"任何对全球供应链以及美国科技公司运营方式和美国消费者日常生活方式有基 本了解的人来说都是如此荒谬、可怕和充满不确定性"。 4月8日，白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，特朗普相信美国有能力自己生产iPhone。"（特朗普）认为我们 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has updated tariffs, exempting certain technology-related products from "reciprocal tariffs," which includes items like computers, communication devices, and semiconductors [1] - The exemption applies to products that meet specific classification numbers in the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, benefiting U.S. tech companies affected by previous tariffs [1] - Analyst Dan Ives from Wedbush emphasized that without these exemptions, the U.S. tech industry would regress significantly, impacting the progress of the AI revolution [1] Group 2 - The recent tariff updates are seen as a relief for the tech sector, with expectations for more details on exemptions to emerge soon [2] - Ives has been optimistic about U.S. tech stocks but expressed concerns due to the tariff situation, previously predicting a significant price increase for U.S.-made iPhones [2] - The White House's stance on tariffs and manufacturing in the U.S. has been criticized for underestimating the complexity of Asian supply chains that have supported the U.S. tech industry for decades [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards traditional strong assets like US stocks and bonds, while highlighting opportunities in safe-haven assets such as gold and Chinese government bonds [2][8][20]. Core Insights - The global economy and financial markets are experiencing significant volatility in 2025, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a favorable outlook for safe-haven assets [2][8]. - The US stock market, which had previously outperformed, is now facing high valuations and increased policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess risk preferences [3][6][9]. - The report indicates a rising probability of a US economic recession, exceeding 50%, due to factors such as stagflation risks and high inflation [10][11][16]. - China's economic competitiveness in technology and manufacturing is improving, but the real estate market remains weak, impacting overall economic growth [30][31][35]. Summary by Sections Global Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that global trade tensions are suppressing economic growth, with expectations of a downward trend in global interest rates as central banks respond to these challenges [2][23]. - The US economy is under pressure from high inflation, high interest rates, and rising wages, which could lead to reduced corporate profitability and economic cooling [16][17]. US Market Analysis - The US stock market's high valuations and policy uncertainties are leading to adjustments, with investors shifting focus to European and Asian markets [3][9]. - The report highlights the need for investors to diversify their strategies, moving away from a simplistic buy-and-hold approach in US equities [9][19]. Chinese Economic Dynamics - The report notes that while China's technology and manufacturing sectors are gaining strength, the overall economic contribution from new industries remains low, with traditional sectors still dominating [30][34]. - The real estate market's ongoing weakness, particularly in new construction, is expected to have a prolonged negative impact on China's economic growth [31][33]. Investment Strategies - The report advocates for a diversified investment strategy that includes safe-haven assets and defensive sectors, as traditional strong assets face headwinds [8][9][20]. - It suggests that the issuance of special government bonds in China is aimed at stimulating consumption, particularly in durable goods, but warns of potential dependency on such policies [37][39]. Interest Rate and Debt Market - The report indicates that US debt yields are expected to decline as the Federal Reserve may need to lower rates in response to economic cooling [19][20]. - It also highlights the importance of managing the balance between fiscal expansion and maintaining economic stability, particularly in light of rising government debt levels [13][14][18].