智利不会报复美国关税。（Emol） 智利财长预计，将获得（美国总统特朗普的）铜关税豁免。 ...

市场消息：欧盟贸易负责人表示，关税豁免清单可进一步增加。 ...

Group 1 - The core discussion between the US and EU revolves around the potential tariff exemptions for wine and spirits, which are still under negotiation despite the overall framework of the trade agreement being established [1] - According to data from the European Union's statistical office, alcoholic beverages are one of the main export products from the EU to the US [1]

Group 1 - Trump's recent Middle East visit resulted in significant military purchase contracts and investment commitments from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, totaling thousands of billions of dollars [1] - Qatar gifted Trump a Boeing aircraft, showcasing the high-level diplomatic relations during his visit [1] - Despite these apparent successes, Trump faces a critical situation with only 90 days remaining to address ongoing challenges, particularly in U.S.-China relations [1] Group 2 - Following the initiation of a tariff war in April, Trump granted a 90-day temporary tariff exemption to most trade partners, aiming to negotiate new trade agreements [3] - However, no country, except the UK, reached an agreement with the Trump administration, while China unexpectedly secured a tax reduction agreement with the U.S. [3] - This outcome indicates a failure of Trump's tariff strategy, as he did not achieve the concessions he anticipated from China [3] Group 3 - On May 14, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a 90-day suspension of export control measures against 28 U.S. entities, which previously restricted military-related exports [5] - Additionally, measures against 17 U.S. entities listed as "unreliable" will also be adjusted, allowing for a temporary reprieve from restrictions on trade and investment in China [6] - These actions are seen as a strategic move to ease tensions and facilitate the implementation of agreements reached during U.S.-China trade talks [8] Group 4 - The 90-day exemption period for U.S. companies is critical, as it hinges on Trump's actions and performance in the coming weeks [8] - Trump's recent statements indicate a willingness to engage with China, highlighting the strategic importance of U.S.-China relations on a global scale [8][10] - The urgency for Trump to resolve issues related to the supply of strategic minerals from China is underscored, as these resources are vital for U.S. technology and defense sectors [11] Group 5 - China has implemented strategic mineral export controls and is actively combating smuggling to protect its resource security [13] - The U.S. faces significant challenges in the rare earth sector due to technological limitations, which has become a critical vulnerability [13] - Trump's need for reconciliation with China is driven by the necessity to secure essential resources for U.S. industries [13]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9390, with a recent report showing a price of 9372 USD/oz, down 0.53% from the opening at 9300 USD/oz, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 9447 USD/oz, while the lowest was 9290 USD/oz, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite plans for counter-tariffs, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - A proposed framework similar to the US-Japan trade agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [3] - Key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals may be affected, with potential tariff exemptions for certain sectors, although high tariffs on steel remain a contentious issue [3] - The EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a support level established at 9300 and a potential resistance at 9550 [4] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within a high-level fluctuation range, with key levels to watch being 9300 for support and 9550 for resistance [4] - The market sentiment suggests caution against overly aggressive bullish positions, with a focus on potential breakout points for further movement [4]

Core Views - This week, the US is conducting trade negotiations with multiple countries, and Indonesia has proposed B50 again [1] - There are hot - spot reviews of domestic and foreign protein meal and oil futures markets, including soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, palm - based oil, and comprehensive aspects [1] Soybean - Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week of July 15, about 7% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 9% in the previous week and 5% in the same period last year [2] Palm - Based Oil - Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters [3] - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is 3,864.12 ringgit per ton (about $910.28), a significant increase from July's 3,730.48 ringgit/ton, and the export tax will be raised from 8.5% in July to 9% [3] Comprehensive - On July 16, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesia. Indonesia will increase purchases of US aircraft, energy (worth $15 billion) and agricultural products (worth $4.5 billion), and the US will reduce the tariff rate from the threatened 32% to 19%. The US may maintain the tariff rate set for Japan and may reach a trade agreement with India [4] - Indonesia is still negotiating the details of the trade agreement with the US. It has requested the US to exempt tariffs on cocoa, rubber, crude palm oil and nickel. All imported US goods except alcohol and pork will enjoy zero - tariff, and some US goods will be exempt from import quota regulations [5]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesian officials are requesting the United States to exempt rubber from tariffs, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics and the importance of rubber in bilateral trade relations [1] Group 1 - The request for tariff exemption highlights Indonesia's reliance on rubber exports and the need for favorable trade conditions to maintain competitiveness in the global market [1] - This move may reflect broader trade negotiations between Indonesia and the United States, aiming to strengthen economic ties and enhance trade volumes [1]

Group 1 - Indonesia is negotiating with the United States for a waiver on a 19% tariff on palm oil, cocoa, and nickel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Energy stated that President Trump does not intend to establish tariff exemptions for the energy industry [1] Group 1 - The announcement indicates a firm stance from the administration regarding tariffs and their impact on the energy sector [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean government plans to strengthen trade negotiations with the United States, viewing President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs starting August 1 as effectively extending the grace period for reciprocal tariffs [1] - The South Korean presidential office stated that Secretary of State Rubio indicated that the new deadline set by Trump means there is still time for both countries to reach an agreement [1] - South Korea's trade surplus with the U.S. is projected to reach a record high of $55.6 billion in 2024, a 25% increase from 2023, driven by growth in automobile exports [1] Group 2 - As the fourth largest economy in Asia, South Korea has urgently dispatched its chief trade negotiator and the head of the presidential security office to the U.S. to negotiate trade and defense matters, aiming for tariff exemptions [2] - The South Korean presidential office reported that discussions with Rubio in Washington resulted in a consensus on alliance relations and trade negotiations, suggesting that a summit between the leaders of South Korea and the U.S. would enhance cooperation [2] - The South Korean government acknowledged a lack of sufficient time to reach consensus on all issues with the U.S. since the new administration took office [2]