韩国产业通商资源部：将通过与美国贸易代表办公室的技术磋商，寻求得到美国对等关税、汽车和钢铁 进口关税的豁免。 ...

021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 4 月 30 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 4 月 28 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 1 一、行情回顾与操作建议 每日报告 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - South Korea is urgently seeking a trade agreement with the U.S. before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension on July 8, to avoid potential trade impacts from the Trump administration [1] - South Korean officials are focusing on four main categories in discussions: tariffs and non-tariff measures, economic security, investment cooperation, and monetary policy [1][2] - The South Korean government emphasizes the need for a "reciprocal" solution to address tariff concerns and proposes specific measures to support U.S. shipbuilding and enhance energy security [2] Group 2 - South Korea's key export industries, particularly steel and aluminum, face a 25% tariff on exports to the U.S., while the automotive sector also encounters similar additional tax burdens [3] - Major South Korean automotive brands, Hyundai and Kia, rank among the top eight best-selling brands in the U.S. market, highlighting the significance of these tariffs on their performance [3] - Political uncertainty due to upcoming elections in South Korea may affect the timeline and outcomes of trade negotiations with the U.S., as a new government will be established after the June 3 elections [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Cost side: Affected by Trump's tariff exemption news, risk assets in the macro - level have stabilized temporarily, but related negotiations are at a stalemate, and market sentiment is cautious. The fundamentals of crude oil have limited marginal changes, with overall expectations slightly improved and support still existing [6]. - Supply side: Last week, the PTA capacity utilization rate decreased. Over the weekend, PTA plants such as Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua restarted. Without new maintenance plans, the PTA operating rate is expected to rise this week [8]. - Production profit: Last week, the PTA production profit declined. Before the macro - pessimistic sentiment eases and there are no obvious positive signs on the demand side, the PTA production profit is unlikely to recover significantly [8]. - Inventory: Last week, the total PTA inventory continued to decline, but the available days of in - factory inventory increased. The raw material inventory of downstream polyester and the warehouse receipt inventory both decreased [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the polyester operating rate remained high, but the average available days of inventory increased, and the average production profit decreased [8]. - Overall logic: The cost - side support from crude oil remains. In terms of PTA supply and demand, supply decreased and demand remained high last week. The fundamentals are good, and the total inventory is continuously decreasing, but the pessimistic sentiment caused by tariffs has led to a decline in PTA processing fees. In the later stage, if there is no new maintenance for the restarted PTA plants last week, the operating rate will rise this week. Although the polyester on the demand side is at a seasonal high in operating rate, under the pressure of high inventory, insufficient orders, and compressed profits, the high operating rate is difficult to maintain in the long term. If the PTA operating rate continues to increase, supply and demand may turn weak. However, considering the cost - side support, the short - term PTA price is expected to fluctuate. The view is to take a wait - and - see attitude towards the short - term PTA price, with the reference range for the main contract being 4200 - 4500 [6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - PTA futures price: Last week, the PTA price fluctuated narrowly and rose, with the highest price reaching 4398 yuan/ton and the lowest dropping to 4218 yuan/ton [15]. - PTA futures trading volume and open interest: Last week, the PTA futures trading volume decreased from 2.1226 million lots to 1.3233 million lots, and the open interest increased from 1.5443 million lots to 1.6102 million lots [20]. Supply - PTA weekly operating rate: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreased from 77.99% to 76.74%, and the output decreased from 1.3617 million tons to 1.3385 million tons [28]. - PTA restart and maintenance plans: Fujian Baihong and Yisheng Dahua plants restarted over the weekend. Without new maintenance, the operating rate is expected to increase this week. There are also multiple plants with maintenance and restart schedules, such as Hainan Yisheng, Sichuan Energy Investment, etc. [32]. Profit - PTA processing fee: Last week, the PTA spot processing fee decreased from 393.4 yuan/ton to 322.89 yuan/ton, and the average disk processing fee decreased from 392.63 yuan/ton to 338.43 yuan/ton [38]. Inventory - PTA total inventory: The PTA total inventory continued to decline, from 2.7843 million tons to 2.5549 million tons. The available days of in - factory inventory increased from 4.32 days to 4.36 days, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories decreased from 760,600 tons to 701,200 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 810,900 tons to 695,100 tons [47]. Demand - Polyester operating rate and output: Last week, the polyester capacity utilization rate decreased from 91.31% to 91.09%, and the output increased from 1.5506 million tons to 1.5588 million tons [53]. - Polyester inventory and production profit: The average polyester inventory increased from 15.56 days to 16.16 days, and the average production profit decreased from 53.02 yuan/ton to - 8.02 yuan/ton [60].

作者 | 弗雷迪 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 本周，当外围关税突然传来缓和声浪， A 股却在九连涨之后收住了势头。 今天下午两点，指数突然跳水，打破了市场一天的平静。 为何突然变脸？ 风不平，浪不静 01 截至， 上证指数收跌 0.07% ，创业板指涨 0.59% ，市场成交额再破万亿。 板块方面，电力板块尾盘发力，湖南发展等多股涨停；钛白粉板块走高，天原股份逼近涨停；旅游酒店板块震荡上行，三峡旅游、天府文旅双双 涨停； CPO 、云计算、 AI 医疗板块涨幅居前。另一方面，贵金属板块回落，西部黄金领跌；乳业股走低，贝因美尾盘跌停；跨境支付、创新 药、宠物经济、猪肉股跌幅居前。 昨天下午一份 "豁免清单"在网上流传，文件内提到部分科技产品的 125% 对等关税暂时取消，包括集成电路 ( 年进口量 87 亿，不含存储 芯片 ) 、血液类制品 (67 亿 ) 、半导体制造设备 (42 亿 ) 、医疗类闪烁扫描装置 (35 亿 ) 、乙烯聚合物 (26 亿 ) 半导体相关的特定检测仪 器 (19 亿 ) 等产品，合计豁免总额接近 450 亿左右，占到从美国进口总额的 30% 。 ...

Core Insights - ResMed Inc reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.37, slightly above the consensus estimate of $2.36 [1] - Quarterly sales rose 8% year-over-year to $1.29 billion, matching estimates, with a 9% increase on a constant currency basis [1] - Gross margin improved by 140 basis points to 59.3%, driven by manufacturing efficiencies and favorable product mix [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted operating income increased by 13% to $444.6 million [2] - Adjusted net income rose by 11% to $348.5 million [2] - Revenue in the U.S., Canada, and Latin America, excluding Residential Care Software, grew by 9% [3] - Revenue in Europe, Asia, and other markets, excluding Residential Care Software, increased by 8% on a constant currency basis [3] Product and Market Insights - Increased demand for sleep devices and growth in the Residential Care Software business contributed to sales growth [1] - Residential Care Software revenue grew by 10% on a constant currency basis, indicating continued organic growth [3] Regulatory and Analyst Commentary - Management confirmed that ResMed's products are exempt from tariffs under the Nairobi Protocol, which was approved in 2009 [2][4] - Analyst reactions include an 11% increase in ResMed stock price, with various price target adjustments from different firms [3][4]

Group 1 - The article highlights the volatility in the consumer electronics sector, indicating that the market is experiencing high openings followed by declines, suggesting a lack of clean chips in the sector [2] - The example of Luxshare Precision is provided, noting that it only faced two limit-downs despite being a leader in the Apple supply chain, indicating resilience amidst market fluctuations [3] - There is a significant amount of capital waiting for a good opportunity to either take profits or cut losses, particularly in light of the recent tariff exemption news [5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of stimulating domestic demand, especially as the bond market remains strong despite stock market fluctuations [7] - It suggests that upcoming monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, are likely to occur soon, which could signal a shift in market focus towards domestic consumption [9] - The consumption ETF 510150 is highlighted as a balanced investment option, incorporating essential and discretionary consumer sectors, which has shown resilience since the market bottom in January [11] Group 3 - The consumption ETF 510150 has demonstrated a gradual upward trend, indicating that there is a market pricing in the potential for stimulating domestic demand [14] - The article notes that despite recent market downturns due to tariffs, there has been a recovery, suggesting that the market is adjusting to the new tariff landscape [16] - It is anticipated that as key economic meetings approach, more capital will flow into the consumer sector, leading to outperformance compared to the broader market [18] Group 4 - The article concludes that the market's focus will shift from external factors, such as tariffs, back to domestic responses, particularly the need for stimulus measures to support domestic demand [20] - It is expected that various measures to stimulate domestic demand will be introduced following the economic meeting in April, presenting opportunities for excess returns in the market [20]

Export Data Overview - In March 2025, China's exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 3.5% and reversing the previous month's decline of -3%[3] - Imports in March 2025 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and contrasting with a 1.5% increase in the previous month[3] Factors Influencing Export Performance - The primary driver for the March export surge was seasonal effects, as early Spring and a low base from the previous year contributed to higher year-on-year figures[3] - "Rush exports" occurred ahead of tariff increases, with significant contributions from ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa, collectively boosting exports by 4.8 percentage points[3] Future Export Trends - Export growth is expected to decline in Q2 2025, potentially falling between -5% to -10% year-on-year due to the impact of tariff escalations and weakening external demand[4] - Recent logistics data indicates a significant drop in port cargo volumes, suggesting a slowdown in export activity[4] Potential Upside Factors - Signals of tariff exemptions may provide some relief, with an estimated $100 billion worth of products eligible for exemptions, potentially easing export pressures[5] - Continued "rush exports" and shifts in trade patterns towards ASEAN and other regions may sustain some export momentum[5] Risks and Policy Responses - The government is likely to implement policies aimed at mitigating employment risks due to external shocks, focusing on high-tech manufacturing sectors with significant export exposure to the U.S.[7] - If tariffs are enforced as planned, the direct impact on foreign trade revenues could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries[7]

作者：张云杰 陶川 如我们在前期报告《 关税下出口：已知压力和未知风险 》中所指出的， 3 月还观察不到出口的下行压力，"早春"、低基数等因素将推高 当月出口同比。 但在关税升级后，后续出口将进入"新范式"。 如何看待出口的已知变化和未知风险？我们围绕以下四个问题展开回答： Q ： 3 月出口大超预期，源自哪些因素？ A ："季节性"脉冲是核心原因。 基于历史经验，春节时点靠前往往会压低 1-2 月出口、抬高 3 月出口表现（可参照 2006 、 2014 、 2017 年等春节时点与今年相近的年份， 3 月出口环比均为历史较高水平）。 今年不仅是"早春"，而且和去年形成"错位"（ 2024 年恰好是"晚 春"， 3 月出口环比较低），这些因素共同放大了 3 月出口同比读数。 从实际数据看， 3 月出口环比略高于"季节性"水平。 其次，"对等关税"落地前夕，出现了一部分"抢出口"需求。 这一因素可能解释了 3 月出口好于"季节性"的这部分。 一方面， 3 月外需是边际回落的，全球制造业 PMI 较上月下滑 0.3 个百分点至 50.3% 。 另一方面， 从国别上看，主要是对一些"转口"贸易区域的出口增速大幅反 ...