Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank reported a strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase in operating income and net profit, although there was a decline in quarterly revenue in Q3 [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Changshu Bank achieved operating income of 9.052 billion yuan, an increase of 8.15% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.357 billion yuan, up 12.82% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, the bank's revenue was 2.99 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3% [1][2]. - The bank's net interest income for Q3 was 2.428 billion yuan, down 4.5% quarter-on-quarter, while non-interest income was 562 million yuan, a significant drop of 27% from the previous quarter [1][3]. Non-Interest Income - In the first three quarters, non-interest income reached 1.984 billion yuan, marking a 35% year-on-year increase, with investment income contributing 1.669 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year [2]. - However, the bank experienced a fair value loss of 160 million yuan, which was an increase compared to the same period last year [2]. Asset and Liability Management - As of the end of Q3 2025, Changshu Bank's total assets were 402.23 billion yuan, a 9.72% increase from the end of the previous year, with total loans of 256.764 billion yuan (up 6.6%) and total deposits of 312.19 billion yuan (up 8.95%) [3]. - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.76%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the end of the previous year, while the provision coverage ratio was 462.95%, down 37.56 percentage points [3]. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for Changshu Bank was 2.57%, down 14 basis points from the end of last year, but still leading among A-share listed banks [4]. - The bank has actively optimized its deposit structure and managed costs to mitigate the downward trend in net interest margin, which has shown signs of stabilization [4][5]. Industry Trends - The banking sector is experiencing a transition from actively reducing costs to restoring asset yields, with signs of marginal improvement in net interest margins across several banks [5]. - Analysts suggest that the downward cycle of net interest margins may be nearing its end, which could enhance the stability of bank profitability and credit investment [5].

Core Viewpoint - The net interest margin of Industrial Bank continues to decline, with a focus on maintaining stable interest income and managing asset quality amid a challenging operating environment [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Industrial Bank reported operating revenue of 161.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.82%, with the decline narrowing compared to the first half of the year [1]. - Net interest income fell by 0.56% year-on-year, while net fee and commission income increased by 3.79% [1][2]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 63.08 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.12% year-on-year [2]. Deposit and Loan Trends - Total deposits amounted to 5.83 trillion yuan, growing by 5.47% since the beginning of the year, with an interest rate of 1.71%, down 5 basis points from the first half [2]. - Total loans reached 5.99 trillion yuan, up 4.42% year-to-date, with corporate loans increasing by 7.54% and personal loans decreasing by 2.49% [2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan balance was 64.56 billion yuan, an increase of 3.08 billion yuan from the end of the previous year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% [3]. - The bank reported a decrease in new non-performing assets and a lower generation rate compared to the previous year, indicating improved risk management [3][4]. Shareholder Activity - Significant shareholder activity has been noted, with major shareholders increasing their stakes in Industrial Bank, including the Fujian Provincial Finance Department and others [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy-A" with a target price of 7.03 CNY over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the bank's performance has shown improvement in growth rates compared to the mid-year report, driven primarily by the expansion of interest-earning assets and a notable increase in non-interest income [1][10]. - The bank's credit growth is robust, particularly in corporate loans, while retail lending remains resilient despite industry pressures [2][11]. - The bank's asset quality is maintained at a high level, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% and a sufficient provision coverage ratio of 240.21% [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Postal Savings Bank reported a revenue growth of 1.82% year-on-year, with a pre-provision profit increase of 8.16% and a net profit growth of 0.98% [1]. - The bank's total assets grew by 11.10% year-on-year, with a net increase of 415.1 billion CNY in the third quarter alone [1][2]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loans increased by 19.87% year-on-year, reflecting a strong performance in the corporate lending sector [2]. - Retail loans grew by 2.92% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average, with a focus on high-quality borrowers and core urban areas [2]. Interest Margin and Cost Management - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.68%, showing a slight decline but remaining competitive within the industry [4][9]. - The bank has successfully reduced its cost of interest-bearing liabilities, contributing to a stable interest margin [9]. Non-Interest Income and Investment Performance - Non-interest income increased by 23.48% year-on-year, with significant contributions from investment gains and fees [10]. - The bank's investment strategy has proven effective, particularly in volatile market conditions, leading to improved investment returns [10]. Future Outlook - The bank is expected to continue supporting key sectors such as small and micro enterprises while optimizing its loan portfolio [11]. - Revenue growth is projected at 1.43% for 2025, with net profit growth anticipated at 2.65% [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in operations with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 14.5% and revenue by 1.4% for the first nine months of 2025 [1]. - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 514% as of Q3 [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the economy, projecting net profits of 194 billion, 218 billion, and 243 billion RMB for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company's net profit, revenue, and pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) increased by 14.5%, 1.4%, and 1.6% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The annualized return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) were stable at 0.96% and 16.91%, respectively [1]. Credit and Asset Quality - As of Q3 2025, total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 13.8%, 12.7%, and 14.5%, respectively, compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a slight decrease in provisions but still at a comfortable level [4]. Wealth Management and Non-Interest Income - The bank's net fee and commission income increased by 12.6% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in wealth management [3]. - However, other non-interest income saw a decline of 24.7% year-on-year due to market fluctuations affecting investment income [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 19.41 billion RMB for 2025, with a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.74 times for 2026 [5]. - The target price is set at 21.32 RMB, reflecting a PB of 1.0 times [5].

净息差降幅收窄，其他非息收入表现亮眼。我们测算的公司2025 年三季度单季度净息差1.22%，较二季 度下降5bps，但息差降幅有所收窄。受净息差持续下降等因素影响，公司前三季度净利息收入同比下降 3.8%至20.58 亿元，增速较上半年下滑0.93pct。此外，手续费及佣金净收入0.68 亿元，同比增长 21.3%；其他非息收入9.35 亿元，同比增长20.8%，表现亮眼。成本收入比同比下降2.99pct 至29.9%，成 本控制效果显著。 业绩平稳增长，拨备反哺利润。公司2025 年前三季度分别实现营收、归母净利润32.21 亿元、17.08 亿 元，分别同比增长0.08%、5.01%，增速较上半年分别下滑0.13pct、0.21pct。其中三季度单季实现营收 9.41 亿元，同比下降0.23%；实现归母净利润5.30 亿元，同比上升4.54%。公司2025 年前三季度年化加 权ROE12.03%，同比下降0.88pct。从业绩增长归因来看，主要是净息差拖累营收增长，不过公司延续 了拨备反哺利润的趋势，另外其他非息收入贡献回暖。 规模扩张提速，结构以对公为主。公司2025 年9 月末总资产同比增长7.9% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank [2][8]. Core Views - Changshu Bank's Q3 revenue growth is 8.2%, with a net profit growth of 12.8%. Interest income has accelerated quarter-on-quarter, while non-interest income has increased significantly by 35.3% year-on-year, driving revenue growth. The net interest margin for Q3 stands at 2.57%, only down 1 basis point from the first half of the year, maintaining a leading position in the industry. The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio decreasing by 27 percentage points to 463%, indicating excellent asset quality. The integration of rural banks is progressing smoothly, and the bank is expanding its presence to create a second growth curve. As a pro-cyclical bank stock, Changshu Bank has a clear long-term development path. This year, it has implemented a mid-term dividend for the first time, with a payout ratio increased to 25.3%. Currently, the 2025 PB valuation is 0.73x and PE valuation is 5.4x, both at historical lows, indicating significant long-term value is undervalued [2][6][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, Changshu Bank's operating revenue grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 12.8%. The non-performing loan ratio remained flat at 0.76%, and the provision coverage ratio decreased by 27 percentage points to 463% [6][11]. Revenue Composition - The growth in operating revenue is driven by a 2.4% increase in net interest income and a substantial 35.3% rise in non-interest income. The bank's investment income has been affected by market fluctuations, leading to a 22.2% decline in Q3 investment income [11]. Asset Quality - The asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 463%. The bank has increased efforts in risk resolution and recovery of non-performing loans, leading to a stabilization in retail asset quality [11]. Growth Strategy - The integration of rural banks is advancing well, with several rural banks being restructured and opened this year. This expansion is aimed at creating a second growth curve for the bank [11]. Valuation Metrics - The current PB and PE valuations are at 0.73x and 5.4x respectively, indicating that the bank's long-term value is significantly undervalued compared to historical levels [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 10.40 CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance with a slight increase in net profit of 0.78% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, despite a revenue decline of 3.18% [2][4]. - The non-performing loan ratio has remained stable at 0.97% for six consecutive quarters, with a provision coverage ratio increasing to 340% [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 33%, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 5% [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating income of 19.83 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.18% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.57 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 0.78% [2][8]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of -3.1%, 4.4%, and 5.8% for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with net profit growth rates of 0.9%, 1.3%, and 4.0% for the same periods [2][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 1,487.81 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,888.15 billion CNY by 2027 [9][10]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.97% through 2025, with a slight decrease to 0.96% in 2026 and 0.95% in 2027 [11]. - The provision coverage ratio is projected to decrease from 352.34% in 2024 to 300.02% by 2027, indicating a robust risk management framework [11][12]. - The report highlights a decrease in the net interest margin to 1.34% in Q3 2025, primarily due to weak credit demand [7][11]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned in the market with a solid customer base and steady business development, particularly in sectors like technology and elder finance [2][4]. - The report anticipates significant market growth opportunities in the context of Shanghai's development initiatives, which could enhance the company's business expansion [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit growth rates have rebounded, with total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 199.645 billion yuan and 69.994 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 1.80% and 1.90% [1] - The company's asset growth remains stable, with total assets increasing by 6.2% year-on-year to 15.50 trillion yuan as of September 2025 [2] - The net interest margin has narrowed its decline, with a reported net interest margin of 1.20% for the first nine months, down 1 basis point from the second quarter and 7 basis points from the previous year [3] - The overall asset quality is stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.26% as of September, showing improvement from June [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 199.645 billion yuan and net profit of 69.994 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.80% and 1.90% year-on-year, respectively [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 66.277 billion yuan, up 3.92% year-on-year, and net profit was 23.978 billion yuan, up 2.46% year-on-year [1] Asset Growth - As of September 2025, total assets reached 15.50 trillion yuan, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, with loans (excluding accrued interest) growing by 7.5% to 9.07 trillion yuan [2] - The company added 516.3 billion yuan in new credit in the first three quarters, with corporate loans increasing by 415.4 billion yuan [2] Interest Income and Non-Interest Income - The net interest income for the first three quarters was 128.648 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [3] - Non-interest income from fees and commissions was 29.398 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.15%, while other non-interest income surged by 25.4% to 25.585 billion yuan [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.26% as of September, down 2 basis points from June, and the provision coverage ratio increased to 209.97% [3] - The company’s core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 11.37%, slightly down by 0.05 percentage points from June [2] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted upwards, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 95.683 billion yuan, 98.849 billion yuan, and 103.224 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 2.2%, 3.3%, and 4.4% [4][5]

Core Insights - The six major state-owned banks in China reported a year-on-year increase in both operating income and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with operating income reaching approximately 2.73 trillion yuan and net profit around 1.72 trillion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 1.87% and 1.22% respectively [1][2] Financial Performance - All six banks achieved positive year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, with Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leading in revenue growth rates of 2.69% and 2.17% respectively [2] - Agricultural Bank of China reported a net profit growth rate exceeding 3%, specifically at 3.03%, while other banks like Bank of Communications and Bank of China also showed net profit growth above 1% [2] - The absolute profit figures for the banks were significant, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China earning approximately 269.9 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank at 257.4 billion yuan and Agricultural Bank of China at 220.9 billion yuan [2] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin (NIM) for most banks continued to decline, with only Bank of Communications showing a year-on-year increase in net interest income of 1.46% [3] - The decline in NIM was less severe compared to the first half of the year, with quarterly declines ranging from 0.01 to 0.04 percentage points [3] Asset Quality and Growth - By the end of the third quarter, total assets of the six banks approached 218 trillion yuan, marking a growth of approximately 1.85% since mid-year [1][4] - The total loan amount exceeded 127 trillion yuan, with a growth of around 9 trillion yuan compared to the end of the previous year, particularly driven by Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, all showing growth rates above 8% [4] Provision Coverage - The overall asset quality showed improvement, with five banks reporting a decrease in non-performing loan ratios compared to the end of the previous year, while Postal Savings Bank experienced a slight increase [4] - The provision coverage ratio for Agricultural Bank of China remained the highest among the banks, although it decreased from approximately 299.61% to 295.08% [5] Market Capitalization - As of October 30, Agricultural Bank of China led in market capitalization at approximately 2.74 trillion yuan, followed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at about 2.59 trillion yuan [5] - Agricultural Bank of China was noted as the only major state-owned bank with a price-to-book (PB) ratio recovering to above 1 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bank's Q3 2025 performance shows a slight decline in revenue and stable net profit, aligning with expectations, while asset quality remains robust [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 1.8% for the first three quarters, although the rate of decline has narrowed [1]. - Q3 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders slightly decreased by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a cumulative growth of 0.1% for the first three quarters [1]. - Net interest income in Q3 2025 increased by 1.4% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth, while the cumulative decline for the first three quarters was 0.6% [2]. - The net interest margin (NIM) improved by 4 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.57% in Q3 2025 [2]. - The cost of interest-bearing liabilities significantly decreased by 11 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.68%, with the deposit interest rate at 1.71%, down 32 basis points year-on-year [2]. - Total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 3.5%, 4.3%, and 7.6% year-on-year, respectively, indicating stable expansion [2]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income decreased by 6.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a cumulative decline of 4.5% for the first three quarters [2]. - Net fee income increased by 6.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, contributing to a cumulative growth of 3.8% for the first three quarters, driven by a recovery in the capital market [2]. - Other non-interest income decreased by 16.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a cumulative decline of 9.3% for the first three quarters due to disruptions from rising interest rates [2]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.08% at the end of Q3 2025, while the attention rate slightly increased by 1 basis point to 1.67% [3]. - The net generation rate of non-performing loans for the first three quarters was estimated at 1.11%, showing a slight decline [3]. - The provision coverage ratio remained stable, with a minor decrease of 0.7 percentage points to 227.8%, and the loan-to-provision ratio remained at 2.46% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast remains unchanged, with the bank currently trading at 0.5x P/B for 2025E and 2026E [4]. - The target price is maintained at 28.0 yuan, corresponding to 0.7x P/B for 2025E and 2026E, indicating a potential upside of 39.8% [4].