周四发布的预测显示，欧洲企业的健康前景略有恶化，因为美国关税带来的利好被持续的地缘政治紧张 局势所抵消，传统的西方联盟正面临压力。 根据LSEG I/B/E/S的数据，预计欧洲企业2025年第四季度平均盈利将下降4.2%，略低于一周前分析师预 期的下降4.1%。 这将是过去七个季度中最差的盈利表现。 美国总统特朗普周三排除了武力夺取格陵兰岛的可能性，并表示在就北极岛屿问题达成框架协议后，他 不会对八个欧洲盟国征收10%的关税。 尽管细节尚不清楚，但这一消息推动欧洲股票市场走高，欧洲斯托克600指数上涨约1%，因为当前正值 财报季。 尽管如此，分析师和投资者仍提醒不要自满 ，并警告说特朗普政府的外交政策难以预测。 LSEG的数据显示，收入前景也受到打击，目前预计将比去年下降3.5%。这比上周预期的下降2.9%更糟 糕。 责任编辑：刘明亮 根据LSEG I/B/E/S的数据，预计欧洲企业2025年第四季度平均盈利将下降4.2%，略低于一周前分析师预 期的下降4.1%。 这将是过去七个季度中最差的盈利表现。 美国总统特朗普周三排除了武力夺取格陵兰岛的可能性，并表示在就北极岛屿问题达成框架协议后，他 不会对八个欧洲盟 ...

Core Viewpoint - European pension funds are gradually reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to increasing policy risks and uncertainties in the U.S. market [1][2]. Group 1: Actions of Pension Funds - Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension announced it will liquidate its $100 million U.S. Treasury bond holdings by the end of the month [1]. - Sweden's largest pension fund, Alecta, sold off the majority of its U.S. Treasury bonds, amounting to approximately 70 to 80 billion Swedish Krona, equivalent to about $7.7 to $8.8 billion [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The actions of Danish and Swedish pension funds are expected to increase volatility in both European and U.S. bond markets, influencing global financial markets and prompting other institutions to reconsider their investment strategies [3]. - Following U.S. President Trump's threats of tariffs on European countries, U.S. stock markets, the dollar, and Treasury bonds experienced declines, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [3]. Group 3: Political Developments - President Trump announced a delay in imposing tariffs on EU countries after reaching a framework agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte regarding Greenland, resulting in a slight uptick in U.S. stock markets [4]. - The market is observing whether other major Nordic institutions will join the bond sell-off, with significant holdings of U.S. debt by countries like Japan, the UK, and China, as well as European nations [4]. Group 4: Analysis from Financial Institutions - Morgan Stanley reported that despite escalating geopolitical tensions, European countries are unlikely to engage in large-scale sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds due to structural differences in bondholder composition and healthy investor positioning [5]. - Most U.S. Treasury bonds held by Europe are in private hands, making it difficult for governments to enforce sales, and current investor positions in U.S. bonds are relatively light, reducing the risk of significant yield spikes [5].

If tensions continue to escalate and the dollar remains weak, gold prices could soon hit the coveted $5,000 per ounce level, according to experts. On Wednesday, gold prices on COMEX hit a new record ... ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price continues to rise, reaching a new historical high due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased global trade friction, with significant inflows of safe-haven funds supporting a bullish trend in gold [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The market's risk appetite has notably declined, primarily driven by U.S. President Trump's strong stance on Greenland, which has led to increased tensions in U.S.-Europe relations and raised tariff risks [1] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has amplified volatility in global financial markets, prompting investors to seek traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1] - The U.S. dollar index has weakened, reducing the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets and creating a favorable environment for gold prices [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Central banks are continuing to increase their gold holdings, with the Polish central bank recently approving a plan to buy up to 150 tons of gold, aiming to elevate its reserves to 700 tons [2] - The rationale for increasing gold reserves includes the absence of credit risk and immunity from foreign monetary policies, which enhances the robustness of national balance sheets amid rising global financial uncertainty [2] - The ongoing trend of central banks accelerating gold purchases is a significant structural force driving the upward movement of gold prices [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The focus is shifting to the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator that will provide important insights into future monetary policy [2] - Despite stabilizing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, the logic of "selling U.S. assets" and persistent safe-haven sentiment are likely to keep gold prices elevated near historical highs in the short term [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices surged to $4,861.01 per ounce, marking a 2.07% increase, with a peak of $4,870.41 and a low of $4,756.81, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe [1] - The market's risk aversion was intensified by President Trump's aggressive stance on Greenland, which could potentially lead to a trade war with Europe and threaten NATO unity [1] - Trump's warning of imposing tariffs up to 200% on French wine and champagne if they obstruct US interests has caught European leaders off guard, prompting calls for the EU to reduce dependence on the US [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that Trump's actions have led to a loss of trust in the US, with investors selling off US assets, including the dollar and long-term bonds, in favor of gold [2] - The dollar experienced its largest single-day drop in over a month, with the US stock market indices also seeing significant declines, indicating a broader sell-off of US assets [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming events, including the Supreme Court's review of Trump's attempt to remove a Federal Reserve governor and the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for January 27-28, where rates are expected to remain unchanged [2] Group 3 - The gold market opened at $4,672.30, initially retracing to a low of $4,659.20 before rallying due to safe-haven demand, closing at $4,763.60 [3] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook for gold, but caution is advised due to clear overbought signals, with specific price levels identified for potential adjustments and stop-loss placements [3] - Target prices for gold are set at various levels, including $4,745, $4,752, $4,763, $4,772, $4,785, and the $4,800 mark [3]

Capital.com高级市场分析师凯尔·罗达表示："特朗普周末对欧洲国家加征关税，并加大力度胁迫以吞并 格陵兰岛，导致人们对美国失去信任。黄金价格的波动反映了人们对全球地缘政治紧张局势的担 忧。""显然，投资者正在抛售美元，抛售美债，尤其是长期国债，转而买入黄金，因为目前市场对黄金 的信心高于对美元的信心。" A股市场黄金概念股午后进一步拉升，其中，白银有色、国城矿业、四川黄金、中国瑞林、湖南白银、 招金黄金涨停，南矿集团涨超8%，西部黄金、赤峰黄金涨超7%，豫光金铅、晓程科技、中金黄金涨超 6%，株冶集团、山金国际、盛达资源、鹏欣资源涨超5%。 受避险需求和美元走软的提振，金价飙升至每盎司4870.96美元的历史新高。美国总统特朗普对格陵兰 岛的觊觎可能会引发与欧洲的贸易战，并可能动摇北约。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 息市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601212 | 白银有色 | 1 | 10.01 | 635亿 | 46.50 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | 10 | 10.01 | 331亿 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged to a historic high of $4849 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and a weakening dollar, reflecting investor concerns over global geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The increase in gold prices is attributed to rising fears regarding geopolitical issues, particularly related to U.S. President Trump's actions towards Greenland and potential trade conflicts with Europe [1] - Investors are selling off the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, especially long-term securities, in favor of gold, indicating a higher confidence in gold compared to the dollar [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Capital.com senior market analyst Kyle Rodda noted that Trump's threats to impose tariffs on European countries and his aggressive stance on Greenland have led to a loss of trust in the U.S. [1] - The fluctuations in gold prices are seen as a direct reflection of the market's anxiety over the current geopolitical climate [1]

周三，受避险需求和美元走软的提振，金价飙升至每盎司4849美元的历史新高。美国总统特朗普对格陵 兰岛的觊觎可能会引发与欧洲的贸易战，并可能动摇北约。Capital.com高级市场分析师凯尔·罗达表 示："特朗普周末对欧洲国家加征关税，并加大力度胁迫以吞并格陵兰岛，导致人们对美国失去信任。 黄金价格的波动反映了人们对全球地缘政治紧张局势的担忧。""显然，投资者正在抛售美元，抛售美 债，尤其是长期国债，转而买入黄金，因为目前市场对黄金的信心高于对美元的信心。" ...

地缘政治不确定性的再度升温是此次波动率飙升的核心原因。Granite Bay Wealth Management首席投资 官保罗·斯坦利表示："股市面临的主要风险是地缘政治紧张局势。尽管股市尚未对2026年迄今出现的地 缘政治紧张做出显著反应，但这些新闻头条重要地提醒我们，地缘政治因素随时可能成为主导，因此投 资者应始终为头条新闻驱动的波动做好准备。" 智通财经APP获悉，周二，随着投资者的焦虑情绪重新浮现，市场波动性再度成为焦点。衡量市场预期 波动程度的重要指标——Cboe波动率指数(VIX)强势突破20这一关键关口，升至近两个月来的最高水 平，显示出市场风险偏好出现明显转变。这一被称为"恐慌指数"的指标目前已较上周尾盘大幅走高，累 计涨幅接近28%，目前徘徊在20.69附近，标志着年初以来市场相对平静的阶段宣告结束。 当地时间1月17日，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布，将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、 英国、荷兰和芬兰的输美商品加征10%关税，并宣称加征关税的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相 关方就美国"全面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 当地时间1月18日，欧盟召开紧急会议，就反制方案可 ...

穆迪评级此前已将美国的国债信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，理由是预算赤字和高昂的借贷成本。 丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension宣布，由于对美国政府财政状况不佳的担忧，以及美丹两国因格陵兰 问题和关税威胁导致的紧张局势升级，该基金计划出售其持有的约1亿美元美国国债。 AkademikerPension的投资主管Anders Schelde表示，该决定并非直接与美欧之间的裂痕相关，但地缘政 治紧张局势"确实使得做出决定变得不那么困难"。 ...