人民财讯11月24日电，华安基金认为，美股AI泡沫的担忧持续发酵，波动率提升下避险资金或涌向黄 金。伴随着AI相关企业资本开支的大幅增长、市值的屡创新高以及AI公司之间的相互投资，市场对AI 存在泡沫的担忧明显上升。若最终AI发展的成果和收益无法匹配前期巨大的投入，或将对企业造成较 大负担，考虑到近期美股波动率VIX指数亦走高，反映市场避险需求激增。 ...

Wolfinance星级分析师黄力晨认为，由于近期基本面没有新的变化，市场情绪相对观望，黄金价格保持区间震荡。一方 面是中美贸易磋商达成基本共识，中美领导人在APEC峰会会晤后，达成多项成果共识，如关税减免以及延长关税豁免 时间，以及美联储在10月份降息之后，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，不能认为12月降息是理所应当的，美联储的谨慎立场 令12月降息预期降温，美元持续走强，刷新三个月的新高，这些都对金价造成了压制；另一方面是美国政府继续停 摆，目前停摆时长已经打破历史记录，市场对政府长期关门的担忧升温，此外国际地缘局势依旧动荡，美联储的货币 政策仍存在不确定性，这些因素又吸引避险资金，为金价提供支撑，导致黄金短期走势以区间震荡调整为主。 日线图上，黄金在上周止跌企稳后，走势继续保持区间震荡调整。黄金上方压力，可以关注日内高点3987美元，这是4 小时布林带中轨位置，也是日线5日均线位置，其次4000美元整数位置，这是日线10日均线位置，昨日周二金价多次反 弹试探这里遇阻，以及周一高点4030美元；黄金下方支撑，可以关注周二美盘以及日内亚盘金价多次回落企稳位置 3930美元，其次3900美元整数位置。5日均线死叉轻微上 ...

11 月 3 日亚市尾盘，现货黄金呈现震荡回升态势，当前价格徘徊在 4016 美元 / 盎司左右，较日内盘中低点反弹幅度接近 54 美 元，避险资金的回流为金价提供了有力支撑。 不过，随着避险情绪升温，金价快速收复失地并再度向 4000 美元 / 盎司关口发起冲击。当前投资者普遍关注美国政府停摆的潜 在影响，若此次停摆持续时间延长，可能对美国经济运行产生连锁反应，进一步推动避险资金向黄金市场流动。 后续市场焦点将集中于美国经济数据表现。北京时间 11 月 3 日 23:00，美国 10 月 ISM 制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）将正式公 布，市场普遍预期该数值为 49.1。业内分析认为，这一数据的表现将直接影响美元短期走势，进而作用于黄金价格：若数据优 于预期，可能助力美元走强，对金价形成压制；若数据不及预期，美元或面临调整压力，为金价反弹提供更多动能。 值得注意的是，在美联储上周完成谨慎降息操作后，市场对后续货币政策走向的预期持续调整。芝加哥商品交易所集团的 "美联 储观察工具" 显示，当前市场预期美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 69%，较一周前 91.7% 的概率出现明显回落，这一预期 变化也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices, with a record single-day decline of nearly 7%, raises concerns among ordinary investors about future price movements and the need for a long-term investment strategy [2][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices recently fell from nearly $4,400 per ounce to a low of $4,082 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop since 2013 [2]. - The total value of gold held by private and official investors is approximately $9.4 trillion, while the public market size of U.S. Treasury bonds is around $29 trillion, indicating potential upward pressure on gold prices due to declining confidence in the dollar [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors should adopt a long-term perspective when investing in gold, focusing on future trends rather than short-term fluctuations [2][5]. - A positive mindset is crucial for gold investors, as emotional reactions to price changes can lead to missed profit opportunities [4]. - It is advisable to invest in gold with a reasonable amount of funds that do not affect normal household expenses, ensuring that investors are not forced to liquidate their positions prematurely [5].

Group 1 - Safe-haven funds are flowing into the precious metals market, triggered by President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and export controls on key software starting November 1 [1] - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, with a 97% probability for October and a 100% probability for December according to CME's FedWatch tool [1] - Structural support for the gold market is provided by stable central bank buying, ETF inflows, U.S.-China trade tensions, and expectations of Fed rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The technical outlook for gold remains bullish, with the potential for prices to test $4,150 and $4,200 per ounce if the daily closing price stays above $4,100 [2] - Momentum indicators suggest a strong bullish trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70, indicating strong buying pressure, although an RSI above 80 may signal overextension [3] - If gold prices close below $4,100, they may enter a trading range between previous historical highs of $4,059 and $4,110 [3] Group 3 - Current resistance levels for gold are at $4,150, $4,160, and $4,177, while support levels are at $4,130, $4,112, and $4,096 [4] - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative cycle greater than three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [4] Group 4 - Key economic indicators to watch include Germany's September CPI, ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the Eurozone, and the NFIB small business confidence index in the U.S. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver in the non-ferrous and precious metals sector are rated as "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View - Despite the easing of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the financial market's digestion of the US President's tariff threats, gold and silver prices continued to surge overnight. The combination of safe-haven funds and market inertia drove gold to break through $4,100 for the first time in history, and a historic short squeeze in the London silver market pushed silver to break through the $50 mark for the first time since 1980. However, due to the large number of profit-taking positions accumulated from the recent continuous rise, short - term volatility has intensified [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - COMEX gold futures closed up 3.24% at $4,130 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed up 7.47% at $50.775 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 2.45% at 936.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.22% at 11,710 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 1.72 tons to 1,018.88 tons. The world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased its holdings by 310.5 tons, the largest increase since July 21, to 15,754.26 tons. A cease - fire agreement in Gaza was signed in Egypt, and the US President said they were in the third and fourth stages of the Gaza agreement [1] Market Logic - The financial market has digested the impact of the US President's tariff threats, with the Wind All - A Index rebounding and US stocks rising. Despite the easing of the Israel - Hamas conflict, gold and silver prices continued to soar. Gold's rise was driven by safe - haven funds and market inertia, and silver's rise was due to a historic short squeeze [1] Trading Strategy - Gold and silver have risen continuously, accumulating many profit - taking positions, and short - term volatility has intensified. Long positions should continue to hold, but be cautious about chasing the rise [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have historically surpassed $4000 per ounce, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors, and presents an optimistic outlook for the future of gold investments [2][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased political and economic uncertainty in the U.S., alongside heightened expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. - The recent ADP employment data showed a significant drop in job creation, further fueling expectations for U.S. rate cuts, which in turn supports gold prices [4]. - Other macroeconomic drivers include the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, rising inflation expectations, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The general consensus among fund managers is that gold prices are likely to continue rising due to a favorable global liquidity environment, with upward momentum expected to outweigh potential downward risks [7]. - There is a notable price discrepancy between domestic and international gold prices, which may provide additional support for gold investments in China as the largest consumer of gold [7]. - Long-term strategies suggest that buying and holding gold remains a sound investment approach, despite potential short-term volatility [8]. Group 3: Risks and Volatility - Potential risks that could reverse the current upward trend in gold prices include stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, which could impact interest rate decisions and strengthen the dollar [10]. - The article highlights that after a significant annual increase of 50%, gold assets may experience heightened volatility, necessitating risk management strategies for investors [10]. - The long-term trend for gold remains positive, but investors should be cautious of short-term corrections and adjust their strategies accordingly [11]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Recommendations - It is suggested that investors consider a core allocation of around 10% to gold ETFs, with adjustments based on market conditions and investor sentiment [11]. - Historical data indicates that increasing gold assets in equity-focused portfolios can enhance the risk-return profile, particularly when gold allocation is around 30-40% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The London silver market is experiencing unprecedented turmoil, with a "short squeeze" driving silver prices above $50 per ounce, reminiscent of the 1980 "Hunt brothers" incident [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current situation is characterized by an unprecedented premium of London spot silver prices over New York futures, leading to a liquidity crisis [2] - Investors are flocking to gold and silver as a hedge against rising U.S. debt, fiscal deadlock, and currency devaluation, exacerbating market volatility [3] - Increased demand from India coincides with the liquidity crisis, as Indian buyers shift their purchasing channels during the "golden week" holiday [3] Group 2: Inventory and Supply Issues - London silver inventories have decreased significantly, with a 75% drop in freely available silver since mid-2019, from 850 million ounces to approximately 200 million ounces [4] - The supply of silver is insufficient to meet both investment and industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector [6] Group 3: Price and Borrowing Costs - The silver price has broken multiple records in the past two days, with overnight borrowing costs exceeding 100% annualized, surpassing levels seen during the 1980 squeeze [7] - The London silver auction, held daily since 1897, saw its first transaction exceed $50 on Friday, with a premium of $3 over New York futures [7] Group 4: Market Mechanisms and Logistics - The liquidity crisis is compounded by banks' reluctance to quote prices to each other, leading to wide bid-ask spreads [8] - There is a growing urgency among clients to transport silver from New York to London, with estimates of 15 to 30 million ounces being sought for transport [9] - The return of physical silver to London is seen as a potential solution to alleviate the current tightness in the market [10]

Market Impact - On October 10, U.S. stock indices closed down across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.9%, the S&P 500 down by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 3.56% [2] - The decline was triggered by strong anti-China rhetoric from former President Trump, who suggested significant tariff increases on products entering the U.S. [2] Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced significant declines, with Tesla down 5.06%, Amazon down 4.99%, Nvidia down 4.89%, and other tech giants like META, Apple, Microsoft, and Google also seeing losses [2] - Chinese concept stocks were heavily impacted, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 6.10%, and individual stocks like NIO and Bilibili dropping over 10% [3] Global Market Reaction - European markets also faced declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.5%, France's CAC40 down 1.53%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.86% [3] - Following the U.S. market close, Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, along with export controls on "all critical software" [3] Economic Outlook - Concerns over deteriorating trade relations and a prolonged U.S. government shutdown have heightened fears of an economic recession [3] - Analysts predict that the U.S. stock market's decline will negatively affect A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly impacting the market opening on the following Monday [4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider reducing positions to mitigate short-term market shocks, although the overall market trend remains unchanged [4] - Despite the recent downturn, the A-share and Hong Kong markets are viewed as not being in a bubble, with valuations still below historical averages [4]

王爷说财经讯：就在今天（10 月 8 日）上午，现货黄金一举冲破 4000 美元 / 盎司大关，最高摸到 4014.62美元！纽约期金更疯，早一天就突破 4000，今天 直接冲上 4020 美元。 自此，今年以来，国际金价已涨51%，36 天狂涨 20%，港股赤峰黄金直接拉涨 10%！ 但你知道吗？这背后竟藏着一场全球"去美元化"的暗战——中国央行连续11个月囤金，美国政府关门引爆市场恐慌，连桥水基金创始人达利欧都喊话："黄 金比美元更安全！" 难道黄金真要取代美元称霸全球？对于我们普通人，现在还能入手黄金吗？看完这篇，你或许会有不一样的答案！ 01、黄金疯涨不是突然爆发！ 黄金这轮上涨早有苗头。 8 月 20 日起，黄金就像踩了油门，36 个交易日涨超 20%。 咱们身边的金店最直观：周大福、周大生昨天（10 月 7 日）刚涨 0.89%，今天再涨 1.4%，老凤祥也跟涨 1.14%。 更关键的是 "官方动作"：中国央行 9 月末黄金储备达 7406 万盎司，已经连续 11 个月增持，全球央行二季度狂买 166 吨黄金，现在黄金占储备比例首次超 过美国国债。 那么问题来了：黄金这波暴涨的原因为何？ 王爷说财 ...