金价，暴跌！ 近期，国际金价持续走低。7月23日至28日，COMEX黄金期货价格连续4个交易日下跌，累计跌幅近4%。 现货黄金同步走低，7月28日，伦敦金现收报3314.18美元/盎司，较7月22日高点跌超110美元/盎司。 金饰大盘价随之下行，国内知名品牌金饰品每克价格普遍回到千元以内。7月29日，周生生金饰价格为994元/克，较7月23日高点的1029元/克下跌35元/ 克；老庙黄金为995元/克，6天下跌28元/克；周大福为998元/克，6天下跌25元/克。 | 品牌: 周生生 | > 产品: | 黄金价格 > | 开始时间: | 结束时间: | 査询 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌名称 | | 产品名称 | 价格 | 涨跌 | 更新时间 | | 周生生 | | 黄金价格 | 094 | | 2025-07-29 | | 周生生 | | 黄金价格 | 1000 | | 2025-07-28 | | 周生生 | | 黄金价格 | 1000 | | 2025-07-26 | | 周生生 | | 黄金价格 | 1008 | | 2025-07-25 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent international gold prices have experienced a significant decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping nearly 4% over four consecutive trading days from July 23 to July 28 [1] Price Trends - The spot gold price in London fell to $3,314.18 per ounce on June 28, down over $110 per ounce from the high on July 22 [3] - Major domestic gold jewelry brands have seen their prices drop below 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable decreases: Chow Sang Sang at 994 yuan per gram (down 35 yuan from July 23), Lao Miao at 995 yuan per gram (down 28 yuan), and Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan per gram (down 25 yuan) [3][6][7] Market Context - In the first half of 2025, global conflicts increased, leading to a rise in gold prices due to heightened risk aversion, with the London spot gold price at $3,287.45 per ounce at the end of June, up 24.31% from the beginning of the year [6] - Recent declines in gold prices are attributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets, influenced by easing global trade tensions, as indicated by upcoming US-China trade talks [7] - The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan, along with potential trade solutions between the US and the EU, has further contributed to the decline in gold prices [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant declines in futures markets, particularly in coking coal and coke, with drops exceeding 7% [3][4] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented trading limits on coking coal futures, restricting non-futures company members or clients to a maximum of 500 contracts for the JM2509 contract starting July 29, 2025 [4][5] - The recent surge in coking coal and lithium carbonate futures, with increases of nearly 50% and 30% respectively this month, is attributed to government initiatives aimed at curbing "involution" competition and promoting high-quality development [5] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have experienced a significant drop, coinciding with a strengthening U.S. dollar [7] - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 27%, driven by geopolitical tensions and aggressive trade reshaping efforts by former President Trump, but has recently shown signs of stabilizing after reaching a peak of over $3,500 per ounce [8] - Analysts suggest that gold is currently seeking direction, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, indicating a potential short-term peak in gold prices [8] Group 3 - Tesla's stock surged approximately 5% following CEO Elon Musk's statement that the company's valuation could reach $20 trillion [9][10] - Musk's comments came after a significant drop in Tesla's stock price, which fell over 8% due to disappointing earnings, marking a cumulative decline of over 22% in 2025, making it the worst-performing major tech stock this year [10]

Core Viewpoint - The potential for President Trump to "fire" Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has led to increased uncertainty in the market, resulting in a rise in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [1] Market Impact - Following the news, the S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 0.4%, indicating pressure on the stock market due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's ability to dismiss Powell [1] - The influx of risk-averse capital into gold has provided support for gold prices amid the market volatility [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The external gold price is oscillating within the range of $3300 - $3400. The increase in long - term yields pushes up real interest rates, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero - coupon gold and exerting downward pressure on the gold price. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts provides support for gold. For silver, although the demand for silver in photovoltaics is expected to decline in 2025, the commodity attribute is strongly supported by the semiconductor industry. Short - term speculative long - position reduction may bring adjustment pressure, and there is still room for the gold - silver ratio to repair in the medium term. In operation, the idea of bottom - fishing is still adopted, and short - term correction risks should be noted. The Shanghai Gold 2510 contract focuses on the range of 750 - 800 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract focuses on the range of 8900 - 9100 yuan/kilogram [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 776.66 yuan/gram, down 3.74 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9152 yuan/kilogram, down 73 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 200,708 lots, an increase of 2,438 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver are 430,521 lots, a decrease of 19,594 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 140,521 lots, an increase of 830 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract are 144,154 lots, a decrease of 2,822 lots. The gold warehouse receipt quantity is 28,872 kilograms, and the silver warehouse receipt quantity is 1,212,789 kilograms, a decrease of 10,170 kilograms [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 771.4 yuan/gram, down 3.4 yuan; the spot price of silver is 9103 yuan/kilogram, down 43 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.34 yuan/gram, and the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 49 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, and the silver ETF position is 14,856.02 tons, a decrease of 110.22 tons. The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, and the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, a decrease of 4,879 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 54.84 tons, and the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 54.83 tons, and the total global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.19%, down 0.43%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.65%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.07%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 21.08%, down 0.72% [2] Industry News - Trump and the Indonesian President reached an agreement, and Indonesia will open the whole market to the US for the first time. The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Traders predict that the Fed will start to cut interest rates in September and cut interest rates nearly twice by the end of the year. The US Treasury Secretary said that the selection process of the next Fed Chairman has officially started. The EU will postpone the implementation of trade counter - measures to August 6 if the trade negotiation with the US fails. The expectation of interest rate cuts weakens the attractiveness of the US dollar and supports the US - dollar - denominated gold. The 30 - year US Treasury yield has reached a two - month high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and exerting downward pressure on the gold price. There are differences within the Fed on interest rate cuts, and after the new tariffs take effect on August 1, different situations will have different impacts on the gold price [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a downward trend influenced by optimistic expectations regarding trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, leading to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds, a strengthening dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1][3]. Price Movement Analysis - Gold prices have declined from a high of $3345 to around $3280, with significant support at the $3280 level, which has not yet been breached [1][3]. - The recent drop from $3345 to $3320 represents a $25 decrease, and a similar drop from $3310 to $3285 has occurred, indicating a consistent downward movement [3]. - The current price action suggests a potential for a rebound, with a focus on the support level between $3275 and $3280 [1][3]. Trading Strategy - Recommendations include buying gold on dips around $3287-$3282 with a stop loss at $3275 and a target of $3310-$3320 [4]. - Additionally, selling gold on rebounds around $3315-$3320 is advised, with a stop loss at $3328 and a target of $3300-$3290 [4].

Group 1 - The article highlights the weakening outlook for the US dollar due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the recent passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by the US Senate, leading to a decline in the dollar index by over 7% since April [1][2] - The article notes that the offshore RMB has appreciated against the dollar, reaching a high of 7.1493, while other Asian currencies have also strengthened, indicating a broader trend of non-USD currency appreciation [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the Hong Kong stock market is becoming a new safe haven for global capital, driven by its low absolute valuations and improving corporate governance, which is attracting more funds [4][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for a significant increase in the fiscal deficit in the US, with the Senate's version of the tax bill expected to expand the deficit by $3.9 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [2][3] - It mentions that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) has dropped significantly, with the one-month rate falling to 0.52% and the overnight rate nearing 0%, indicating a strong liquidity environment in the market [4] - The article points out that the valuation of the Hang Seng Index is significantly lower than that of the US market, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2%, making it an attractive option for international capital seeking to escape the dollar [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures contract experienced a significant decline, dropping 1.91% to 8819 yuan/kg, following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, coupled with hawkish comments from Powell regarding inflation pressures [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, which was in line with market expectations [1]. - Powell's hawkish remarks indicated that rising inflation could hinder the rate cut process, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated, with Trump approving plans for strikes against Iran, although no attack orders were issued yet [1]. - Iran responded by highlighting the range of its missiles that could target multiple U.S. bases in the region, with its leadership firmly stating that Iran would not surrender [1]. - Ongoing airstrikes between Iran and Israel have not shown signs of resolution, raising concerns about potential U.S. involvement and its implications for the conflict [1]. Group 3: Market Implications - The lack of signals for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve suggests a weakening support for silver prices from monetary easing policies in the short term [1]. - The impact of geopolitical tensions on safe-haven investments like silver may increase if the U.S. directly engages in the conflict; otherwise, the influence of these tensions on the market may diminish [1].

Group 1: Oil Market Impact - WTI crude oil futures surged by 13% following Israel's airstrikes on Iran, which targeted nuclear facilities and military sites [1][3] - Iran accounts for 2% of global oil exports, and any disruption in supply could lead to significant price increases [3] - Historical trends suggest that geopolitical conflicts typically have a short-term impact on oil prices, with potential resistance at Brent prices above $70 due to ongoing OPEC+ production plans and U.S. shale oil production [3][5] Group 2: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices rose to $3,435 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical risks [1][4] - The increase in gold ETF holdings indicates a shift in market risk appetite, although high interest rates from the Federal Reserve pose a long-term challenge for gold prices [4] - A potential easing of geopolitical tensions could lead to a correction in gold prices, suggesting caution for investors considering entering at current levels [4][5] Group 3: U.S. Policy Considerations - The U.S. stance on the situation is complex, with mixed signals regarding involvement in the conflict, which could further impact oil exports from Iran [5] - Any U.S. actions to restrict Iranian oil exports could lead to a second wave of price increases, although the likelihood of such actions remains low [5]

Group 1 - International oil prices and spot gold have surged significantly due to disturbances in the Middle East, with crude oil prices rising by 8% and spot gold reaching $3420 per ounce [1] - Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both increased by over 8%, with WTI reaching a high of $74.35 per barrel, the highest since February 3, and Brent hitting $75.28 per barrel, the highest since April 2 [1] - Domestic energy futures opened sharply higher, with fuel and crude oil futures hitting the limit up, and low-sulfur fuel oil rising by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on gold's future performance, citing uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical factors that may drive safe-haven investments into gold, alongside ongoing central bank gold purchases and a long-term cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - In contrast, analysts are cautious about oil prices in the second half of the year, noting that while recent market sentiment has improved, long-term oil prices are expected to trend downward due to rising downstream product inventories indicating short-term oversupply [3] - The geopolitical situation is likely to provide only temporary support for prices, with Brent crude expected to face resistance above $70 per barrel, lacking the momentum for a sustained breakthrough to new highs [3]