Macro News - The main focus is on the geopolitical tensions between the US and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil, with President Trump threatening to impose significant tariffs on Indian goods if they continue these purchases [1] - The Swiss Federal Council is preparing to negotiate with the US after the announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, indicating a willingness to find a more attractive proposal to alleviate the current tariff situation [1] Employment Data and Federal Reserve - President Trump has accused the US Labor Department of manipulating the recent employment report to favor the Democratic Party, leading to the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director [2] - There is a significant expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting concerns over the deteriorating job market [2] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the rising demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of monetary easing and a weakening dollar [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices oscillated and declined. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran, Fed Chair Powell's statement on the lack of urgency to cut interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earth supply led to a significant decline in the price of gold as a safe - haven asset. Silver was more resilient but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at a possible extension of the "tariff deadline" from July 9 to September 1. The US and China finalized a trade understanding on rare earth exports, and the US will lift trade counter - measures if China exports rare earths to the US [4][8]. - With the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the improvement in Sino - US trade relations, and the rise in the US core PCE supporting Powell's view, market expectations of monetary easing have decreased, putting pressure on safe - haven assets. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will continue to adjust in the short term [4][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 768.64 yuan/gram, down 9.94 yuan or 1.28%. Its total trading volume was 148,475 lots, and the total open interest was 178,255 lots [5]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 763.08 yuan/gram, down 14.86 yuan or 1.91%. The total trading volume was 38,222 lots, and the total open interest was 213,128 lots [5]. - COMEX gold closed at 3286.10 dollars/ounce, down 98.30 dollars or 2.90% [5]. - SHFE silver closed at 8792 yuan/kilogram, up 128 yuan or 1.48%. The total trading volume was 522,479 lots, and the total open interest was 634,627 lots [5]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8748 yuan/kilogram, up 18 yuan or 0.21%. The total trading volume was 477,072 lots, and the total open interest was 3,111,050 lots [5]. - COMEX silver closed at 36.17 dollars/ounce, up 0.21 dollars or 0.60% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The decline in precious metal prices was due to the cease - fire in the Middle East, Powell's statement on interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earths. Silver was more resilient due to the strong performance of platinum and palladium but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - After the cease - fire declaration, there were still mutual attacks between Iran and Israel, but the conflict did not worsen further. Iran's foreign minister said there was no plan to restart nuclear negotiations [7]. - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance on interest rates, which dissatisfied Trump. Trump considered announcing Powell's successor in advance, causing market concerns [8]. - The US - Canada trade relationship became tense again, but Sino - US trade relations improved. The rise in the US core PCE supported Powell's view, and short - term gold and silver prices are expected to continue adjusting [4][8]. - This week, focus on the US June non - farm payroll data and the global central bank forum, especially Powell's remarks [9][11]. 3. Important Data Information - In May, the US core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The core PCE price increased 0.2% month - on - month, while real personal consumption expenditure decreased 0.3% month - on - month, and personal income decreased 0.4% month - on - month. Fed's Kashkari still expects two rate cuts this year, with the first possibly in September [12]. - The final value of the US Q1 real GDP decreased 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, higher than expected. Personal consumption growth was revised down to 0.5%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 3.5% [12]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [12]. - The initial value of US durable goods orders in May increased 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014. Core capital goods orders increased 1.7% [13]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 5.0, the highest since February. The raw material payment price index rose 5.4 points, and the price acceptance index also increased [13]. - The initial value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's fell to 48.5 [13]. - US consumer confidence in June unexpectedly declined. The consumer confidence index decreased 5.4 points to 93 [13]. - The one - year inflation expectation in the Michigan University consumer survey was adjusted from 5.1% to 5.0%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 4.0%, both lower than the previous values [14]. 4. Related Data Charts - As of June 27, 2025, the total gold position in ETFs was 954.82 tons, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous week. The silver position in ishare was 14,866.19 tons, an increase of 115.91 tons from the previous week [15]. - As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial net long position in gold futures was 195,004, a decrease of 5,644 from the previous week. The non - commercial net long position in silver futures was 62,947, a decrease of 4,227 from the previous week [17]. - The report also provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, net long position changes, and price differences of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metals and other economic indicators such as the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and bond yields [19][21][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the ceasefire between Israel and Iran taking effect and Powell's remarks relaxing the dovish stance, the gold price dropped significantly and then rebounded slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 3 yuan/gram. Although the risk - aversion sentiment cooled down, the easing expectation increased, and there is still downward pressure on the gold price [4]. - Silver: After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and Powell's remarks, the risk preference recovered. The silver price dropped significantly and then rebounded, showing slightly stronger performance than gold. As the situation in the Middle East eases, the silver price will give back its gains [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The ceasefire between Israel and Iran took effect, and Powell reiterated a wait - and - see attitude while being non - committal about the prospect of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the gold price. The three major US stock indexes rose by more than 1%, and the three major European stock indexes closed higher across the board. The US dollar index fell 0.42% to 97.97, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1644. US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield dropping nearly 5 basis points to 4.297%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.66% to $3338.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by the ceasefire and Powell's remarks, COMEX silver futures fell 0.88% to $35.87 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 0.79, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 18,213 kilograms, an increase of 45 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis was - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 1,256,831 kilograms, an increase of 9,728 kilograms compared to the previous day, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's central bank will release the summary of opinions of the deliberation members at the June monetary policy meeting - 08:15 Kansas City Fed President Schmid will discuss the economic outlook at the "2025 Agricultural Summit" - 09:00 Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura will speak in Fukushima - Time TBD The Summer Davos Forum will be held until June 26 - 09:30 Australia's May CPI data will be released - 16:45 Bank of England Deputy Governor Lombardelli will speak - 17:00 Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak - 22:00 Fed Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the Senate Committee, and the US May new home sales data will be released - Next day 01:30 ECB Banking Supervision Committee member Donnelly will speak - 02:00 The Fed will hold a meeting to discuss adjusting the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rule [14] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall back. The verification between the policy expectations and the reality of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - Silver: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2.25% to 201,137, the short positions decreased by 4.06% to 67,417, and the net position decreased by 1.31% to 133,720 on June 24, 2025, compared with the previous day [28]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.11% to 409,978, the short positions decreased by 1.57% to 306,572, and the net position increased by 5.45% to 103,406 on June 24, 2025, compared with the previous day [30]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly, and the silver ETF position decreased in a volatile manner but was higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [37][38][40].

Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market reaction to tariff factors has become dull, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures has slightly slowed down, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic economy has a risk of being high in the front and low in the back, and there is still room for monetary policy easing. Recently, the bond market may maintain a shock, but the adjustment risk is limited, and the probability of a long - position winning is high [11][12]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: In the first quarter, the economic performance was better than expected, but the tariff impact was not yet reflected. The landing of negative factors boosted market sentiment, but the short - term pressure on the capital side still had a suppressing effect [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The short - end decline was within 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond declined by 1 - 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.654%, down 1.25bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank conducted a net withdrawal in the open market, and the funding situation was stable. There were 1189 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank carried out 1045 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net withdrawal of 144 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank funding rate rose slightly, while the medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: The short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures has slowed down, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic economy has a risk of being high in the front and low in the back, and there is still room for easing. The main factor hindering the decline of interest rates in the short term is the capital side. Recently, the bond market may maintain a shock, but the adjustment risk is limited, and the probability of a long - position winning is high [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - China's national economy had a good start in the first quarter. The GDP in the first quarter was 31.8758 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.4% at constant prices. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.5%, 5.9%, and 5.3% respectively. The capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 74.1%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in March was 4.094 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first quarter was 10.3174 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The per capita disposable income of residents in the first quarter was 12,179 yuan, with a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and the per capita consumption expenditure was 7,681 yuan, with a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.2% [13]. - China has established trade partnerships with more than 150 countries and regions, and the dependence on a single export market has decreased. For example, the proportion of China's exports to the United States in total exports decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% last year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Information on the trading data of Treasury bond futures on April 16, including contract details such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, and open interest, is provided [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank's open - market operations, the situation of reverse repurchase maturities and operations, the movement of short - term and medium - long - term funding rates, and the situation of the inter - bank short - term funding rate are presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps is provided [34].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Report Date: April 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the unexpected impact of tariff conflicts, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond has fallen back to the level in early March, and the easing expectation has resurfaced. If the tariff situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase. If the impact of tariffs on exports and the economy is further reflected in April data, the easing expectation may continue to rise, and treasury bond futures are expected to challenge previous highs [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With strong signals from multiple departments to stabilize the market, risk aversion declined, the A-share market strengthened, and the bond market slightly corrected [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the interbank market all rebounded, with a larger increase of about 5bp at the short end and an increase of 3 - 4bp in the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250004 reported 1.6675%, up 2.75bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's open market operations turned to net injection. The funding situation marginally tightened but remained stable overall. The central bank conducted 1674 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 649 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, achieving a net injection of 1025 billion yuan. Short-term interbank funding rates slightly increased, while medium - and long - term funds continued to decline [10] - **Conclusion**: Short - term attention should be paid to the responses of various countries before the additional reciprocal tariffs on April 9. If the situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase [11][12] 2. Industry News - The US threatens to further impose 50% tariffs on China, and China firmly opposes this. If the US implements tariff escalation measures, China will take countermeasures. The so - called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US on China are baseless and a typical act of unilateral bullying [13] - China will impose additional tariffs on imported goods from the US starting from 12:01 on April 10, 2025, adding 34% to the current applicable tariff rates [13] - The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US tariff hikes will lead to a "lose - lose" situation in the short term [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on the trading data of treasury bond futures on April 8, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc., is provided [6] - **Money Market**: The central bank's open - market operations, changes in interbank short - term and medium - long - term funding rates are presented [10] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves is provided [34]

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in government bond futures is primarily attributed to the central bank's indication that it may not be the right time for interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions, which diminishes expectations for monetary easing [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 17, government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 1.81%, the 10-year main contract down 0.56%, the 5-year main contract down 0.26%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.05% [1]. - The long-end government bonds have adjusted to levels seen before the easing expectations in early December of the previous year, indicating a market correction [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The economic data for January and February released recently mostly exceeded expectations, suggesting that the current economic fundamentals are not weak and continue to support the stock market [1]. - The basic support for the bond market is weakening as the central bank continues to withdraw liquidity, leading to higher funding costs [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For the bond market to recover, a shift in monetary policy stance is necessary, which may require the emergence of new downside risks in the economy or a weakening of expectations [2]. - Given the current strong economic outlook, the bond market is likely to continue its adjustment in the short term [2].