1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the callback risk, as the recent decline in coal prices has brought some callback pressure to the coal - chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the strategy should focus on buying on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of over - supply and demand, but the urea price is supported at low levels, and its price bottom may gradually become clear [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On December 5th compared to December 4th, UR01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.89%) to 1673 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 9 yuan/ton (-0.52%) to 1736 yuan/ton, and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.62%) to 1752 yuan/ton [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) to 1720 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.64%) to 1560 yuan/ton; in Henan and Hebei, there was no change; in Northeast China, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.59%) to 1710 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton (0.97%) to 3130 yuan/ton, and in Henan, it increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.38%) to 2650 yuan/ton. The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1696 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1696 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1672 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton, and the position was 200353 lots [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, focus on buying on dips [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is within the range of fundamentals and policies. In the short term, its downside is strongly supported, but there is also pressure on the upside. The 01 contract is expected to continue its oscillating trend [3]. - The short - term spot price of urea is significantly supported, and the sentiment in the industry has improved. The short - term domestic urea market is stable with a slight upward trend [3]. - The medium - term trend of urea is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [21]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - In the context of the fourth batch of export quotas driving speculation, trading was strong in the first half of the week and weakened in the second half. It is expected that upstream enterprises will still be in a stage of slight destocking next week [3]. - Supported by policy supply guarantees and the repair of production profits, the daily output of urea is expected to remain high, and high supply exerts significant pressure on prices. However, timely and continuous adjustments to export policies relieve pressure on the fundamentals, weakening the downward driving force of prices [3]. - Due to the continuous restocking in Northeast China for two weeks, the willingness of compound fertilizer factories and traders to chase high prices is gradually weakening. But the continuous destocking of explicit urea inventories provides support for prices [3]. - Although new delivery warehouses have been added for urea, the locations of the cheapest deliverable goods are still Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of export expectations for the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation. Since the 01 contract still has expectations for autumn fertilizers, there is still a premium for the urea 01 contract [6]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Urea is oscillating weakly. The price range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to lay out short positions at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and lay out reverse arbitrage when the 1 - 5 month spread is above - 10 [13]. - **Base - difference, Month - spread and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - **Base - difference Strategy**: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend. The 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong contracts with expectations of peak - season demand [14]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: The upper pressure on the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton, with dynamic fluctuations. From the perspective of the terminal value of the 01 contract, it is recommended to lay out short positions at high prices; conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread at high prices [14]. - **Hedge Arbitrage Strategy**: None [15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - On November 6, India announced a new round of urea import tenders for 250 tons, with 125 tons each for the east and west coasts, and the shipping date is January 15, 2026 [16]. - The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price level may also attract spontaneous reserves [16]. - **Negative Information**: As of this week, the daily output of domestic urea is 20.81 tons. Next week, the maintenance devices of Shandong Union and Jiangsu Linggu will gradually resume, and some gas - based urea plants in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other places have concentrated maintenance expectations. After a narrow upward fluctuation, the domestic daily output of urea is expected to decline significantly. If the maintenance expectations are fulfilled, the domestic daily output of urea is likely to drop to around 20 tons [17]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 131.53 tons, an increase of 3.74 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.93%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese urea next week will be around 134 tons, continuing to increase from this period [19]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Over the weekend, the domestic urea market continued to rise firmly, with an increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The prices of small and medium - sized particles in the mainstream regions are in the range of 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. Driven by the fourth batch of urea export quotas and the news of a new round of Indian tenders, the sentiment in the market is obviously bullish, and upstream urea factories continue to raise prices, while downstream resistance is emerging. The short - term market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [20]. - The weak domestic demand is the current main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. The demand for compound fertilizers and industrial use is relatively weak, and the driving force for prices is also limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [21]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Urea Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is predicted to be 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years [27]. - **Urea Hedging Strategy Table**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about falling urea prices, it is recommended to short urea futures to lock in profits, buy put options to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options to reduce capital costs [27]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories, it is recommended to buy urea futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and buy put options to lock in the purchase price if the urea price falls [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report provides seasonal data on the weekly fixed - bed production cost, natural - gas - based production cost, and water - coal - slurry gasification production profit of urea [29][31][33]. 4.2 Upstream Operating Rate Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on the daily output, weekly capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization rate of urea [37][39]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on China's weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and total inventory (port + inland) of urea [41][43][45]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on the weekly capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, production profit, and market price of compound fertilizers, as well as the weekly output, capacity utilization rate, market price, and production profit of melamine, and the daily market price of synthetic ammonia in the Henan market [47][50][54][66]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on the average production and sales of urea and the production and sales of urea in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [69][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of urea this week is a fluctuating decline. The short - term driving force is neutral, with the intraday price approaching the upper limit of valuation during the week, and spot trading weakening, leading to a short - term weak correction. Near the delivery of the 01 contract, the increase in warehouse receipts is obvious, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate under pressure. The support mainly comes from continuous purchases in the Northeast. The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, and the continuous reduction of explicit inventory supports the price. In the medium - term, the 01 contract has strong fundamental pressure at 1700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is expected to be between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, including data from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze price trends and market relationships [5][9][15][19] 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continues. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, new production capacity is also being added. For example, Shaanxi Shanhua completed capacity replacement in January 2025, with a net increase of 400,000 tons [23]. 3.2.2 Production Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including routine maintenance and loss - based maintenance. For example, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. carried out routine maintenance from November 10 - 17, 2025 [25]. 3.2.3 Output - The production profit is around the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and output of coal - based and gas - based urea from 2018 - 2025 [26][27]. 3.2.4 Cost - Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. The report provides cost calculations for Shanxi's fixed - bed factories and shows the complete cost trends of urea's fluidized - bed, fixed - bed, and natural - gas production processes from 2018 - 2025 [29]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.2.6 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The report provides monthly net import (export) data from 2018 - 2025 (E), showing that exports have increased significantly in 2025 [41]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strengthening. Different regions and crops have different fertilizer - using seasons. Also, the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [47][50]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers from 2019 - 2025 [54][55][56]. - **Melamine**: The report presents the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine from 2018 - 2025 [57][58][60]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report provides data on panel export volume, real - estate completion area, and construction area from 2020 - 2025 [62][63]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,290,500 tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, 2025 (week 49), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze the international urea market [71][72][73]

【冠通期货研究报告】 弱势回调 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，日内震荡下跌。尿素现货价格小幅上涨，待发支撑 下，报价依然坚挺。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1630-1700 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端，其他地方工厂成交价略有上移。日产 回落后，压力有缓解，但目前肥易通数据显示，依然在 19 万吨以上徘徊。后续 随着西南地区装置的不断停车，将继续降低产量。需求端继续走强，本期复合 肥工厂开工负荷提升 3.47%，冬储肥生产阶段，厂内成品库存开始累积增加， 终端备肥相对顺畅，工厂将继续提升开工负荷，支撑原料端价格。其他工业需 求同样稳中有增，尚且未拖累尿素需求。储备型需求及复合肥开工率增加带来 的需求增量，促使库存进一步去化，预计后续随着气头装置的停产限产，库存 将依然表现为流畅去化。综合来看，近期限气预期、宏观提振及出口传闻，冬 储需求均支撑尿素价格，盘面下方有支撑，临近移仓换月，谨慎多空，关注周 末收单情况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1696 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内震荡下跌， 最终收于 1673 元/吨，收成一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of price correction, and the strategy should still focus on buying on dips. Urea's valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. The low price may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. The bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear, and medium - and long - term investors should focus on buying opportunities on dips [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On December 4, it was 1688.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan (-0.24%) from December 3 [1] - UR05: On December 4, it was 1745.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.17%) from December 3 [1] - UR09: On December 4, it was 1763.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan (-0.28%) from December 3 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: On December 4, it was 1710.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.79%) from December 3 [1] - Shanxi: On December 4, it was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.95%) from December 3 [1] - Henan: On December 4, it was 1710.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.18%) from December 3 [1] - Hebei: On December 4, it was 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.17%) from December 3 [1] - Northeast: On December 4, it was 1740.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 1700.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.19%) from December 3 [1] Basis and Spreads - Basis (Shandong Spot - UR): On December 4, it was - 35.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan from December 3 [1] - Spread (01 - 05): On December 4, it was - 57.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan from December 3 [1] Upstream Costs - Henan Anthracite Coal Price: On December 4, it was 1030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Shanxi Anthracite Coal Price: On December 4, it was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 3100.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan (1.31%) from December 3 [1] - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Henan: On December 4, it was 2640.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (0.76%) from December 3 [1] - Melamine Price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 5217.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Melamine Price in Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 5250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1695 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1710 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1682 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1688 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1694 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume of 2601 was 209270 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Medium - and long - term investors should focus on buying opportunities on dips [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term attention should be paid to the callback risk, and it is still recommended to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea reflects the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, but from a driving perspective, the price is supported at low levels, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. Long - term investors should focus on long - entry opportunities on dips [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: On December 4, it was 1,688 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.24% from December 3 [1] - UR05: On December 4, it was 1,745 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.17% from December 3 [1] - UR09: On December 4, it was 1,763 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.28% from December 3 [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: On December 4, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.79% from December 3 [1] - Shanxi: On December 4, it was 1,570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.95% from December 3 [1] - Henan: On December 4, it was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.18% from December 3 [1] - Hebei: On December 4, it was 1,730 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.17% from December 3 [1] - Northeast: On December 4, it was 1,740 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 1,700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.19% from December 3 [1] Basis and Spread - Direct spread (Shandong spot - UR): On December 4, it was - 35 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan from December 3 [1] - Spread (01 - 05): On December 4, it was - 57 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from December 3 [1] Upstream Cost - Henan anthracite price: On December 4, it was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Shanxi anthracite price: On December 4, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Downstream Price - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: On December 4, it was 3,100 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.31% from December 3 [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: On December 4, it was 2,640 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.76% from December 3 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: On December 4, it was 5,217 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: On December 4, it was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 3 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,695 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,710 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,682 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,688 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,694 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 209,270 lots [1] Long - Short Logic - Urea's rebound from the bottom has been small, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. A new round of export quotas will ease the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate reserve - holding enterprises to enter the market [1] Trading Strategy - Long - term investors should focus on long - entry opportunities on dips [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels. Strategically, pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1692.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 5.00 yuan (0.30%) from December 2 [1] - UR05: 1748.00 yuan/ton on December 3, down 4.00 yuan (-0.23%) from December 2 [1] - UR09: 1768.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small Granules) - Shandong: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Shanxi: 1540.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Henan: 1690.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 10.00 yuan (0.60%) from December 2 [1] - Hebei: 1710.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Northeast: 1740.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Jiangsu: 1680.00 yuan/ton on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR basis: -68.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 4.00 yuan from December 2 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: -56.00 yuan/ton on December 3, up 9.00 yuan from December 2 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices: 1030.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 930.00 yuan/ton in Shanxi on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices: 3060.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 2620.00 yuan/ton in Henan on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] - Melamine prices: 5217.00 yuan/ton in Shandong on December 3, unchanged from December 2; 5250.00 yuan/ton in Jiangsu on December 3, unchanged from December 2 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1684 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1697 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1679 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1692 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1690 yuan/ton [1] Multi - Empty Logic - From a valuation perspective, the rebound of urea from the bottom is not large, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，重回近年高位，综合库存有所回落，去库形态 较明显。需求端，农业需求近期有所提升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比均 有所回升。出口内外价差大，库存去库叠加农储需求提升，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整体仍供过 于求。交割品现货1660（+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-17，升贴水比例-1.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存146.4万吨（-7.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡反弹 ...

成文日期：20251126 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 尿素期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251126）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡上涨，收盘价为 1654 元/吨。最高达 1663 元/吨，最低为 1625 元/吨,成交量 20.8 万 手，较上日增加 11.02 万手，持仓量 22.9 万手，较上日减少 0.5 万 手。 图 1：尿素主力合约分时图 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 图 2：尿素主力合约日线级别图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 | 合约名称 | 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 日増仓 成交量 | | --- | --- | | 尿茎2512 | 1639 20 1.24% 3388 -608 | | 尿素2601 M | 1654 21 1.29% 229335 -4980 208209 1630 | | 展素2602 - | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range-bound with a bullish bias - Inter-period: Wait and see - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, and the spot price has been raised. The restart of shutdown plants in Shanxi and Hebei and the increase in the operating rate of large enterprises in Hubei have led to an overall increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers. The operating rate of melamine has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off-season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium- and long-term supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose, and the gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Driven by reserve demand and the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with inventory reduction at factories and a slight increase in port inventory. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia, and the reserve demand in the Northeast has increased, leading to inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Continued attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. The urea import tender of India's IPL closed on November 20, with the lowest CFR prices of $418.40/ton at the East Coast and $419.50/ton at the West Coast. A total of 24 suppliers' quantities were received, and the lowest price was higher than the previous one. Continuous attention should be paid to the sentiment and rhythm of domestic spot procurement. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,668 yuan/ton (+14). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was quoted at 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price in Shandong was 1,650 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small lump anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was -18 yuan/ton (+6), the basis in Henan was -18 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis in Jiangsu was -28 yuan/ton (+6). [1] Urea Production - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of November 27, 2025, the production profit of urea was 120 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,014 yuan/ton (+10). [1] Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. [2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06% (+2.45%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47). [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1]