Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, opportunistic cash-and-carry arbitrage in futures and spot markets [3] - Inter - delivery spread: On the sidelines [3] - Inter - commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea prices are temporarily stable, but new order follow - up has slowed. The market sentiment has improved due to export quota news, with some regions' agricultural autumn fertilizers ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers winding up, and melamine's operation slightly increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose. The fourth - quarter gas - based plant maintenance is expected to start in December. The export sentiment still affects the urea market, and the newly - obtained export quota and the Indian import tender may support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 10, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,660 yuan/ton (-7). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,620 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1,610 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), in Henan was - 40 yuan/ton (+27), and in Jiangsu was - 50 yuan/ton (+37) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (0.08% change). There is information about urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume in related figures [1][17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 10, 2025, the urea production profit was 90 yuan/ton (+20). There are also data on production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal - based and gas - based production in related figures [1][19] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - On November 10, 2025, the urea export profit was 962 yuan/ton (+42). The report mentions that urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, and on November 7, India's IPL issued a new urea import tender for 2.5 million tons. There are also data on overseas prices and export profit margins in related figures [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of November 10, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (0.00% change), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (+3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.29 days (-0.24) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5781 million tons (+23,800), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term urea is expected to be supported in a volatile range. The mid - stream's continuous replenishment and new export quotas support prices, while policy regulation weakens the downward pressure from high domestic supply [2][3] - The domestic fundamentals of urea face relatively large pressure, but policy regulation reduces the intensity of the downward drive. In the fourth quarter, it is a "buyer's market" in China. The 01 contract has a strong resistance level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Content Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,668 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The trading volume was 321,705 lots, an increase of 172,820 lots, and the open interest of the 01 contract was 268,588 lots, a decrease of 6,554 lots. The basis in Shandong was - 67 yuan, down 3 yuan, and the UR01 - UR05 spread was - 67 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices of most urea producers remained stable, with only Jiangsu Linggu increasing by 10 yuan to 1,620 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi increased by 20 yuan and 30 yuan respectively. The industry's operating rate was 80.69%, up 0.43 percentage points, and the daily output was 188,760 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [1] Industry News - On November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a 1.53% increase. Some regions' inventories increased due to environmental protection and market demand changes [2]

中泰期货尿素周报 ——尿素生产成本上移 尿素出口再度放开 2025 . 1 1 . 9 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | 2025年10月31日-11 | 2025年11月7日-11 | 2025年11月14日-11 | 2025年11月21日-11月27 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月6日 | 月13日 | 月20日 | 日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量： | 19.35 | 19.86 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复4家，本 周预计1家企业计划检修，3家停车企业恢复生 | | | 万吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | | | | | | 2025年第45周(20251031-1106)，复合肥本周期产能利 ...

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report focusing on urea, dated November 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the domestic urea market may experience a rebound due to the news of the fourth batch of export quotas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose and the market is expected to run weakly [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose, closing at 1667 (+27/+1.65%) [3] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices increased with fair trading volume. The factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1550 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1530 - 1540 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1410 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 7, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.79 tons, an increase of 0.20 tons from the previous working day and 1.44 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.61%, a 3.44% increase from 81.17% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming operation, and the average daily production has increased to around 19.6 tons. Urea production enterprise inventories have slightly increased by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] - **Demand Side**: The market rumor of the fourth batch of export quotas (about 600,000 tons) has increased the influence of the international market on the domestic one. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The overall domestic demand is showing a downward trend [5] - **Price Trend**: The domestic spot price is oscillating between 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the news of export quotas will boost market sentiment, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market will still be weak due to the approaching end of autumn fertilizers and the upcoming "vacuum period" of domestic demand [5] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short - term rebound [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]

尿素日报 | 2025-11-06 供应端：截至2025-11-05，企业产能利用率80.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为157.81 万吨（+2.38），港口样本 库存量为11.00 万吨（-10.00）。 需求端：截至2025-11-05，复合肥产能利用率31.04%（+3.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为49.98%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.29日（-0.24）。 尿素现货在厂家下调报价后低价成交好转，持续性一般，预计短期震荡。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合 肥秋季肥生产收尾，整体开工率随装置恢复有所提升，当前冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，随天气转晴，走货 情绪转好。三聚氰胺开工小幅提升，刚需采购。随着新增产能释放，中长期尿素供需仍偏宽松，四季度气头检修 预计12月逐渐开始。本周产销弱平衡，尿素厂内库存小幅累库，库存高位仍为内蒙，关注东北复合肥开工率、原 料采购节奏以及全国淡储节奏。尿素目前仍受出口情绪影响，目前尿素出口政策仍有变化，关注后续尿素出口动 态。 策略 单边：区间震荡 跨期：观望 跨品种：无 厂内库存小幅累库 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-05，尿素主力收 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the perspective of supply and demand. The current valuation of urea is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. After the spot price in Shanxi region fell to the near - five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, it has temporarily stabilized. If the price continues to fall, it may lead to a further decline in the upstream's willingness to start production and accelerate the enterprise's active clearance. In the short term, the upward driving force of urea is insufficient, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream mainly replenishes inventory cautiously at low prices. The possible future drivers include the renovation expectation of old chemical devices on the supply side and whether new export quotas will be issued [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1633 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1715 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.29%; UR09 closed at 1739 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.06%. Among domestic spot prices, Shandong was 1580 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.64%; Henan, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged; Jiangsu was 1570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.64% [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 5 yuan to - 135 yuan/ton. The spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 2 yuan to - 82 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Shanxi remained unchanged at 930 yuan/ton. Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5073 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1625 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1644 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1620 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1633 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1632 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 272,255 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being fulfilled. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), which is also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, suggesting a bearish trend. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [5]. - Factors favoring the urea market include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the main negative factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is weak, with the compound fertilizer operating rate being neutral year - on - year and the melamine operating rate falling. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being fulfilled. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract basis is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.8%, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), which is bearish [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, suggesting a bearish trend [5]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume has increased. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [5]. - **Likely Factors**: Strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply [6]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Spot and Futures Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot delivery product price is 1570 (+10), Shandong spot price is 1570 (+10), Henan spot price is 1570 (0), FOB China price is 2691 [7]. | | **Futures Market** | UR01 contract price is 1630 (+7), UR05 contract price is 1710 (+1), UR09 contract price is 1740 (-2), UR2601 contract basis is -60, premium/discount ratio is -3.8% [5][7]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 3900 (+2445), UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, UR port inventory is 11.0 million tons [5][7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent from a supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a near - five - year low. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward drive for urea due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are mainly making cautious restocking at low prices. The potential future drivers are the update and transformation of old chemical equipment on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1630 yuan/ton on November 4, up 7 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1710 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06%; UR09 closed at 1740 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.11% [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in Shanxi, Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 5073 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5150 yuan/ton [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 9 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 and 05 increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [1] 3. Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1624 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1638 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1615 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1630 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1625 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 272271 hands [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline further. In the short term, the upward driving force for urea is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers mainly replenish inventory cautiously at low prices. Future potential drivers include the expected renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1623 yuan/ton on November 3, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from October 31; UR05 closed at 1709 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.35%); UR09 closed at 1742 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.35%) [1] Domestic Spot Prices - In Shandong, the price was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 30 yuan (-1.89%); in Shanxi, it was 1450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.68%); in Henan, it was 1560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.27%); in Hebei, it was 1590 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.24%); in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1610 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.27%) [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 149 yuan/ton on November 3, down 36 yuan from October 31; the spread of 01 - 05 was - 86 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1618 yuan/ton, the highest was 1629 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1623 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1617 yuan/ton, and the position was 269753 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply - demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived. The current urea valuation is relatively low, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream demand is mainly for cautious restocking at low prices. Possible future driving factors include the renovation of old chemical industry equipment on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1623 yuan/ton on November 3, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from October 31 [1]. - UR05 closed at 1709 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. - UR09 closed at 1742 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices - In Shandong, the small - particle urea spot price was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 30 yuan (-1.89%) from October 31 [1]. - In Shanxi, it was 1450 yuan/ton on November 3, down 10 yuan (-0.68%) from October 31 [1]. - In Henan, it was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 20 yuan (-1.27%) from October 31 [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 149 yuan/ton on November 3, down 36 yuan from October 31 [1]. - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 86 yuan/ton on November 3, down 8 yuan from October 31 [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite coal price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. - The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1618 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1629 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1623 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1617 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 269,753 hands [1]. Trading Strategy Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1].