尿素日报 | 2025-11-06 供应端：截至2025-11-05，企业产能利用率80.32%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为157.81 万吨（+2.38），港口样本 库存量为11.00 万吨（-10.00）。 需求端：截至2025-11-05，复合肥产能利用率31.04%（+3.33%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为49.98%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.29日（-0.24）。 尿素现货在厂家下调报价后低价成交好转，持续性一般，预计短期震荡。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合 肥秋季肥生产收尾，整体开工率随装置恢复有所提升，当前冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，随天气转晴，走货 情绪转好。三聚氰胺开工小幅提升，刚需采购。随着新增产能释放，中长期尿素供需仍偏宽松，四季度气头检修 预计12月逐渐开始。本周产销弱平衡，尿素厂内库存小幅累库，库存高位仍为内蒙，关注东北复合肥开工率、原 料采购节奏以及全国淡储节奏。尿素目前仍受出口情绪影响，目前尿素出口政策仍有变化，关注后续尿素出口动 态。 策略 单边：区间震荡 跨期：观望 跨品种：无 厂内库存小幅累库 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-05，尿素主力收 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the perspective of supply and demand. The current valuation of urea is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. After the spot price in Shanxi region fell to the near - five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, it has temporarily stabilized. If the price continues to fall, it may lead to a further decline in the upstream's willingness to start production and accelerate the enterprise's active clearance. In the short term, the upward driving force of urea is insufficient, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream mainly replenishes inventory cautiously at low prices. The possible future drivers include the renovation expectation of old chemical devices on the supply side and whether new export quotas will be issued [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1633 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1715 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.29%; UR09 closed at 1739 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.06%. Among domestic spot prices, Shandong was 1580 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.64%; Henan, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged; Jiangsu was 1570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.64% [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 5 yuan to - 135 yuan/ton. The spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 2 yuan to - 82 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The price of anthracite coal in Shanxi remained unchanged at 930 yuan/ton. Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5073 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1625 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1644 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1620 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1633 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1632 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 272,255 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being fulfilled. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), which is also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, suggesting a bearish trend. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [5]. - Factors favoring the urea market include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the main negative factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory has slightly declined. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, industrial demand is weak, with the compound fertilizer operating rate being neutral year - on - year and the melamine operating rate falling. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being fulfilled. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract basis is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.8%, indicating a bearish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), which is bearish [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, suggesting a bearish trend [5]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rebounding, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume has increased. However, the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [5]. - **Likely Factors**: Strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply [6]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Spot and Futures Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot delivery product price is 1570 (+10), Shandong spot price is 1570 (+10), Henan spot price is 1570 (0), FOB China price is 2691 [7]. | | **Futures Market** | UR01 contract price is 1630 (+7), UR05 contract price is 1710 (+1), UR09 contract price is 1740 (-2), UR2601 contract basis is -60, premium/discount ratio is -3.8% [5][7]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 3900 (+2445), UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, UR port inventory is 11.0 million tons [5][7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent from a supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a near - five - year low. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward drive for urea due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are mainly making cautious restocking at low prices. The potential future drivers are the update and transformation of old chemical equipment on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1630 yuan/ton on November 4, up 7 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1710 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.06%; UR09 closed at 1740 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.11% [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Prices in Shandong and Henan increased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in Shanxi, Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 5073 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5150 yuan/ton [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 9 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 and 05 increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [1] 3. Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1624 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1638 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1615 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1630 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1625 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 272271 hands [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline further. In the short term, the upward driving force for urea is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers mainly replenish inventory cautiously at low prices. Future potential drivers include the expected renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1623 yuan/ton on November 3, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from October 31; UR05 closed at 1709 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.35%); UR09 closed at 1742 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.35%) [1] Domestic Spot Prices - In Shandong, the price was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 30 yuan (-1.89%); in Shanxi, it was 1450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.68%); in Henan, it was 1560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.27%); in Hebei, it was 1590 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.24%); in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1610 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.27%) [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 149 yuan/ton on November 3, down 36 yuan from October 31; the spread of 01 - 05 was - 86 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1618 yuan/ton, the highest was 1629 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1623 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1617 yuan/ton, and the position was 269753 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply - demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived. The current urea valuation is relatively low, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - adjustment. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream demand is mainly for cautious restocking at low prices. Possible future driving factors include the renovation of old chemical industry equipment on the supply side and new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1623 yuan/ton on November 3, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from October 31 [1]. - UR05 closed at 1709 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. - UR09 closed at 1742 yuan/ton on November 3, up 6 yuan (0.35%) from October 31 [1]. Domestic Spot Prices - In Shandong, the small - particle urea spot price was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 30 yuan (-1.89%) from October 31 [1]. - In Shanxi, it was 1450 yuan/ton on November 3, down 10 yuan (-0.68%) from October 31 [1]. - In Henan, it was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 20 yuan (-1.27%) from October 31 [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 149 yuan/ton on November 3, down 36 yuan from October 31 [1]. - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 86 yuan/ton on November 3, down 8 yuan from October 31 [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite coal price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. - The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively from October 31 to November 3 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1618 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1629 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1623 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1617 yuan/ton. The持仓量 of 2601 was 269,753 hands [1]. Trading Strategy Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold them [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather conditions, while the industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1560 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -63, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), also bearish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is also bearish. Considering the weak industrial demand, the rebound in agricultural demand, the strong international urea price, and the significant domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Likely to Rise**: The international price of urea is strong, and the agricultural demand is rebounding [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic market is oversupplied [6]. - **Main Logic**: The international price and the marginal change in domestic demand are the main factors influencing the market [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Price** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1560 (-20), the Shandong spot price is 1560 (-30), and the Henan spot price is 1560 (unchanged). The FOB China price is 2686 [5][7]. | | **Futures Price** | The price of the UR01 contract is 1623 (-2), the UR05 contract is 1709 (+6), and the UR09 contract is 1742 (+6). The UR2601 contract basis is -63, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.0% [5][7]. | Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), including 1.554 million tons in factory inventory and 110,000 tons in port inventory [5][7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after reaching a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. Short - term upward drivers are insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressures, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking. Future possible drivers include the renovation of old chemical devices on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: UR01 closed at 1625 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.12%); UR09 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.06%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Shandong, it was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.63%); in Hebei, it was 1610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.62%); in Northeast China, it remained at 1610 yuan/ton (0.00%); in Jiangsu, it was 1580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.63%); in Henan, it remained at 1580 yuan/ton (0.00%) [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1]. b. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 113 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 remained at - 78 yuan/ton [1]. c. Futures Contract Details - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1627 yuan/ton, the highest was 1637 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1623 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1625 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1629 yuan/ton. The position was 264103 lots [1]. d. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Intertemporal: On hold [3] - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the price increase this week following the simultaneous rise in futures and spot prices last week. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, awaiting a driving force. In the medium to long term, urea supply and demand remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. The export sentiment still affects urea, and attention should be paid to the subsequent export dynamics and the procurement rhythm in Northeast China and the national off-season storage rhythm [2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - On October 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,627 yuan/ton (-17). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,580 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,590 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was -27 yuan/ton (+17), in Henan was -47 yuan/ton (+17), and in Jiangsu was -37 yuan/ton (+17) [1] Urea Production - As of October 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (-75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (-100,000 tons) [1] Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 872 yuan/ton (+10) [1] Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Urea exports in September were 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1, with the bid closing on October 15 and the offer validity period until October 30. The latest shipping date is December 10, and a total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was 402 US dollars/ton on the west coast and 395 US dollars/ton on the east coast [2] Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - As of October 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+1.68%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.53 days (+0.12) [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The national high inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased this week [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the short - term market is expected to warm up. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is - 47, with a premium/discount ratio of - 3.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish. The short - term price of the urea main contract is expected to warm up, and it is predicted that UR will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production. The bearish factor is domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate decline from high levels, comprehensive inventory slightly drops. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak, with falling operating rates for compound fertilizers and melamine. Export volume increases with a large but decreasing price difference. Domestic market is oversupplied, but short - term market may warm up. Spot price of delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is - 47, premium/discount ratio is - 3.0%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: Short - term price of the urea main contract is expected to warm up, and it is predicted that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Strong international prices, increasing exports, short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Bearish**: Domestic oversupply [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | Spot price of delivery product is 1580 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1600 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1580 (unchanged), FOB China price is 2662 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | UR01 contract price is 1627 (- 17), UR05 contract price is 1705 (- 12), UR09 contract price is 1735 (- 12), UR2601 contract basis is - 47, premium/discount ratio is - 3.0% [4][6]. | | **Inventory** | UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), warehouse receipts are 2970 (unchanged), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons (unchanged), UR port inventory is 210,000 tons (unchanged) [4][6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] |