成文日期：20250912 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:尿素 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 载 Hour 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20250912）尿素期货主力合约价格震荡下跌，收盘价为 1663 元/吨，最高达 1676 元/吨，最低为 1661 元/吨,成交量 12.5 万 手，较上日持平，持仓量 30.1 万手，较上日增加 0.8 万手。 表 1：尿素期货当日行情表 20250912 1：尿素主力合约分时图 | 合约名称 最新 涨跌 涨幅8 持仓量 目增仓 成交量 开盘 最高 最低 | | --- | | 尿素2509 ----------------- 1336 - 1583 - 1568 - 1578 | | 尿素2510 | | 尿素2601 M | 图 2：尿素主力合约日线级别图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 数据来源：国金期货 wh6 1.2 品种价格 图片来源：国金期货 wh ...

持续弱势 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 17 日 【策略分析】 今日低开低走，日内偏弱震荡，现货收单热情不及昨日，价格小涨后成交不 畅，行情稳定为主。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂成交价格范围多 在 1600-1630 元/吨，河北部分工厂报价 1680-1690 元/吨，但高报价工厂主要执 行出口集港订单。尿素日产维持在 19 万吨左右进行，一方面山西尿素装置技改， 另一方面阅兵检修减产，前期产量有下滑，但随着装置复产及产能的投放，日产 依然预计偏高位运行，压制尿素价格。需求端，价格跌至低位后，下游拿货情绪 转好。复合肥工厂开工率偏低主要一方面终端需求疲软，前期备货已近 78 成， 另一方面厂内成品库存高企。虽然目前工厂利润尚且可观，但企业依然以库存去 化为重点，后续高位开工的几率不大。本期库存依然表现为增加，且目前库存高 企，大幅高于往年同期，制约尿素价格上行。整体来说，盘面筑底中，后续有反 弹机会，上方关注 1730 元/吨附近压力，但宽松格局尚未逆转，市场缺乏驱动。 【期现行情】 【冠通研究】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1685 元/吨开盘，低开低走，日内偏弱震荡， 最终收于 16 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Before the export window period, go long on the UR01 - 05 spread when it is low; after the export window period, go short on the UR01 - 05 spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market manufacturers cut prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the trading volume improved, and the subsequent sustainability needs attention [2] - The urea production is running at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply and demand remain relatively loose [2] - The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [2] - The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. In September, it is still the export window period, and the urea export is ongoing with an accelerating pace. The export volume in August and September is expected to be good. Pay attention to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand on a month - on - month basis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - Information on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][7][8][15][17] 3.2 Urea Production - Information on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [19][22] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Information on production cost, spot production profit, coal - based production capacity utilization rate, and gas - based production capacity utilization rate is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][26][29] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Information on urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB price in China, urea large - particle CFR price in China, price differences, urea export profit, and on - paper export profit is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [31][33][37][40][47] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Information on the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [48][49][50] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Information on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract open interest, and main contract trading volume is presented with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][55][58] 4. Market Data as of September 15, 2025 4.1 Price and Basis - Urea main contract closed at 1,683 yuan/ton (+20) - The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was quoted at 1,640 yuan/ton (0) - The small - particle price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton (-20) - The small - particle price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (-10) - The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0) - The basis in Shandong was - 43 yuan/ton (-40) - The basis in Henan was - 43 yuan/ton (-30) - The basis in Jiangsu was - 43 yuan/ton (-30) - Urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-20) - Export profit was 1,167 yuan/ton (+62) [1] 4.2 Supply - side - The enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.34% (+0.08%) - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 113.27 million tons (+3.77) - The port sample inventory was 54.94 million tons (-7.15) [1] 4.3 Demand - side - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 37.82% (+4.74%) - The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.38% (-3.60%) - The number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.88 days (+0.47) [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1760（-20），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差77，升贴水比例4.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未超预期放开，国内整体供 过于求仍明显，预计UR今日走势震荡 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 重要提示：本报告非期货交易 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 in Shanxi: 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% [1]. - UR05: 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% [1]. - UR09: 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Henan: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% [1]. - Hebei: 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Northeast: 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. - Melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300585 lots [1]. Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, the urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and urea exports from September to October are optimistic considering the eased China - India relations. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog Urea Futures Price - UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% - UR05 closed at 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% - UR09 closed at 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - In Shandong, it was 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Henan, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% - In Hebei, it was 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Northeast China, it was 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - In Jiangsu, it was 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Basis and Spread - The spread between Shandong spot and UR was - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 - The 01 - 05 spread was - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1] Upstream Cost - The anthracite price in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The anthracite price in Shanxi was 880 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Downstream Price - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2950 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan was 2550 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Shandong was 5100 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 - The melamine price in Jiangsu was 5300 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1] Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 300,585 lots [1] Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices (View score: 0) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market has weak domestic demand and lacks upward support. The market is in the process of bottom - building, and a technical rebound is expected later [1] - The supply side has a daily output of about 180,000 tons, with recent restarts and overhauls happening simultaneously. The inventory is high, and the market has abundant supply. The demand side has limited follow - up demand boost as downstream备货 is mostly completed [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened lower and rebounded weakly today, then declined in the afternoon. Downstream buyers took small quantities at low prices, and factory quotes continued to decline. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,600 - 1,650 yuan/ton [1][4] - The daily output of urea on the supply side is about 180,000 tons. Jiujiang Xinlianxin's second - phase products are expected to be produced on the 15th. The inventory is high, and the market has sufficient supply [1] - On the demand side, downstream buyers took small quantities at low prices. The operating load of compound fertilizer factories increased to 37.82% this week, a 4.74 - percentage - point increase from last week. However, the inventory of compound fertilizer factories and urea factories is at a high level in recent years, and subsequent demand boost is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,665 yuan/ton, then opened lower and rebounded weakly, and declined in the afternoon, closing at 1,663 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%. The trading volume was 300,585 lots (+7,942 lots) [2] - Among the top 20 long and short positions of the main contract, the long positions increased by 3,502 lots, and the short positions increased by 6,451 lots. Some futures companies' net positions are as follows: Zhongyuan Futures' net long position is - 1,374 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long position is + 209 lots, Dongzheng Futures' net short position is + 911 lots, and Yide Futures' net short position is + 741 lots [2] - On September 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,847, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day. Anhui Zhongneng decreased by 25, and Anyang Wanzhuang decreased by 25 [2] Spot - Downstream buyers continued to take small quantities at low prices, and factory quotes continued to decline. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,600 - 1,650 yuan/ton, with individual factories in Hebei having higher quotes [1][4] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of basis, the mainstream spot market quotation declined today, and the futures closing price also declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 13 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton) [8] - On September 12, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 186,400 tons, remaining flat, and the operating rate was 78.76% [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Before the export window period, conduct positive spreads trading for UR01 - 05 to capture fluctuations; after the export window period, conduct reverse spreads trading for UR01 - 05 at high prices [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has weak domestic demand with manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders and light trading volume. Although the autumn agricultural fertilizer season has started in some areas and there is rigid demand from the compound fertilizer and melamine industries, industrial demand was previously affected by the military parade and is gradually recovering [2] - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. Coal - based urea has decent profits, but the cost support is average [2] - The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, as the bid volume is at a historical high. September is still an export window period, with accelerating export rhythm and declining port inventories. The export volume in August and September is expected to be high, which will lead to a decrease in urea inventories. Focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7][8][15][17] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [18][23] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures involve production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][27][29][32] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [33][35][38][40][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [49][50][51] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, the number of days of raw material inventory of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [54][57][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - For cross - period trading, before the export window period, UR01 - 05 positive spread can be used to trade fluctuations; after the export window period, UR01 - 05 short the spread when it is high. Cross - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea spot market has weak domestic demand, with manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders and light trading. The agricultural autumn fertilizer season has started in some areas, and industrial demand from compound fertilizer and melamine is for essential purchases. The industrial demand was relatively weak due to the impact of the parade on factories, but the operating rate will recover. Urea production remains at a high level, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is still loose with the release of new production capacity. Coal - based urea has decent profits, and the cost support is average. The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decrease in urea inventory. We should focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On September 10, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (-14). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1670 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1670 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1650 yuan/ton (-20). The small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was 1 yuan/ton (+14), the Henan basis was 1 yuan/ton (+4), and the Jiangsu basis was - 19 yuan/ton (-6) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of September 10, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.11% (0.08%). Urea production remains at a high level, and with the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term urea supply - demand is still loose [1][2] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 140 yuan/ton (+0). The coal - based urea profit is decent, and the cost support is average [1][2] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1085 yuan/ton (+6). The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decrease in urea inventory [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of September 10, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.08% (-6.14%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.98% (+0.48%); the urea enterprise advance order days were 6.88 days (+0.47). The industrial demand was relatively weak due to the parade, but the operating rate will recover [1][2] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of September 10, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 113.27 million tons (+3.77), and the port sample inventory was 62.09 million tons (+2.09). The export is ongoing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the export in August and September may lead to a decrease in urea inventory [1][2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 10, 2025 [2] - Research Area: Energy and Chemicals [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and declined, closing at 1669 (-17/-1.01%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices weakened and declined, with general trading. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1630 - 1640 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1660 - 1670 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1490 - 1550 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On September 10, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.51 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.36 tons compared to the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: The operating rate on this day was 79.12%, a decrease of 2.30% compared to 81.42% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Market Sentiment: Market sentiment was average, with urea spot factory quotes in mainstream areas declining and trading being mediocre [5] - Regional Market Analysis: In Shandong, the mainstream factory quotes led the decline, and the factory quotes were expected to be weakly stable; in Henan, the market sentiment was low, and the factory quotes were expected to follow the decline; in the surrounding areas of the delivery zone, the factory prices were expected to decline [5] - Supply and Demand: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily output dropped below 190,000 tons. India tendered for 200,000 tons again. The domestic demand was in a "vacuum period", and the overall demand showed a downward trend. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 37,700 tons to around 1.1327 million tons [5] - Market Outlook: In the short term, the domestic demand was still limited. The Indian tender had a certain support for the domestic spot market sentiment, but the domestic demand was weak, and the urea market was expected to continue its weak operation [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term bearish, do not chase the short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9]