| [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 33.50 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 47.50/28.10 | | 总股本（百万股） | 209 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 194 | | 流通股比例（%） | 92.90 | | 总市值（亿元） | 70 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 65 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 可孚医疗（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 301087） 公司点评 产品丰富+渠道多元，收入增长持续稳健 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-05-04 | -31% -16% -2% 13% 28% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 可孚医疗 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭国超 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 分析师：李婵 执业证书号：S0010523120002 邮箱：lichan@hazq.com [Table_CompanyRepo ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with a diverse product range and multiple sales channels, achieving a revenue of 2.983 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.53%, and a net profit of 312 million yuan, up 22.60% year-on-year [5][9] - The company focuses on core product categories and enhances R&D efficiency, launching over a hundred new products, including innovative solutions for chronic disease management [6] - The online sales channel generated 1.990 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 8.94% year-on-year, while the offline channel saw a decline of 3.12% [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.983 billion yuan, with a net profit of 312 million yuan and a gross margin of 51.9% [11] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.580 billion yuan, 4.333 billion yuan, and 5.236 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 414 million yuan, 504 million yuan, and 613 million yuan [9][11] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.98 yuan, 2.41 yuan, and 2.93 yuan, with P/E ratios of 17x, 14x, and 11x respectively [9][11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time on a quarterly basis, compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of RMB 43.8 million in the same period last year [18] - Gross margin improved from 4.8% in Q4 2023 to 7% in Q4 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [10][17] - Total revenue for Q4 2024 reached RMB 597 million, representing a 20% sequential increase and a 45% year-over-year increase [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail transaction volume in Q4 2024 reached 8,554 units, a 42% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 178% increase year-over-year [15] - For the full year 2024, retail transaction volume totaled 21,773 units, representing a 134% year-over-year growth [19] - Wholesale operations saw a decline, with 885 units sold in Q4 2024, a 15% sequential decline and a 31% year-over-year decline [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - China's used car annual transaction volume reached 19.6 million units in 2024, up 6.5% year-over-year, outpacing the new car market's growth of 4.5% [5] - The used car sector in China is expected to maintain strong growth momentum over the next five to ten years, driven by increasing vehicle turnover and supportive government policies [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open 2 to 4 new superstores in key regional markets in 2025, while also ramping up inventory at existing locations [11][21] - A disciplined regional expansion strategy will be executed to further scale operations and drive profitability [10] - The company aims to achieve over 100% growth in retail transaction volume for the full year 2025 and deliver its first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA [12][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the outlook for China's used car market in 2025, despite potential trade tensions with the U.S. [38] - The company expects to maintain over 100% growth in retail sales volume in the coming year, supported by ongoing expansion efforts [39] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting strategies to ensure sustainable long-term development amid market dynamics [40] Other Important Information - The company completed a financing agreement of $27.8 million in March 2025, significantly strengthening its cash position [20] - The net promoter score reached 65 in Q4 2024, up from an average of 60 in the prior year, indicating improved customer satisfaction [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on current cash position and future business development - Management confirmed that the current cash position has improved significantly, allowing for future operations and new superstore investments [26][28] Question: Views on current stock performance - Management believes the stock price increase reflects growing investor interest in the used car industry and confidence in the company's growth prospects [30][32] Question: Outlook for China's used car market amid trade tensions - Management anticipates minimal direct impact from trade tensions on the used car market and remains optimistic about growth in 2025 [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit drop of 29.9% [1][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion CNY, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, up 0.4% year-on-year. However, sales receipts decreased by 7.3% [1][7]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and improving product coverage, with a three-year dividend plan ensuring a minimum payout ratio of 65% for 2024, 70% for 2025, and 75% for 2026, enhancing its attractiveness for long-term investors [7][8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue was 31,196 million CNY with a growth rate of 3.2%. Net profit was 13,473 million CNY, growing at 1.7% [3][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: Expected revenue of 31,932 million CNY with a growth rate of 2.4%. Projected net profit is 13,758 million CNY, with a growth rate of 2.1% [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS for 2024 is 9.15 CNY, projected to increase to 9.35 CNY in 2025 and 10.01 CNY in 2026 [3][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 14 for 2024, decreasing to 12 by 2027. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.9 to 2.9 over the same period [3][8]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in maintaining revenue and profit growth despite industry pressures, with a focus on inventory management and digital transformation to enhance pricing and market order [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in cash flow due to bill discounting, with contract liabilities at a high level of 3.07 billion CNY at the end of Q1 2025 [7][8].

近期，赢商股份对80+市场主体做了专项调研，包括50+商管企业（含23家央国企、21家民企、4家外资企业），20+头部品牌企业（主要为零售、餐饮业 态）。结合赢商股份行业数据监控及调研结果，赢商股份对一季度市场消费特征、消费热点（新场景/新产品）进行研究分析，并提出了相关政策建议。 01 具体到餐饮企业反馈，消费者价格敏感度攀升，更青睐高性价比套餐，导致餐饮行业利润普遍承压。潮玩类零售企业反馈，中产愿为体验和兴趣爱好买 单，受价格影响不大。服饰类零售企业在调研中提到，线下渠道中奥莱渠道的销售增速明显，传统街铺渠道和百货商场渠道销售呈下降趋势，购物中心分 化明显，优势购物中心略有增长。 图源：赢商网 典型一二线城市标杆项目空置率提升至10.5%，招商难度加大 从赢商股份季度线下踩盘调研数据来看，一季度仅北京、杭州2个城市的空铺率下降至警戒线8%以下；空铺率均在10%以上的城市高达8个，为上海、成 都、重庆、武汉、天津、西安、南京、厦门。一方面，品牌拓展意愿收缩：品牌客单价略有降低，影响整体营收，导致整体门店拓店意愿不高，开拓新店 更趋于谨慎，商业载体招商难度不断增大；另一方面，面对越来越大的竞争压力，商业载体品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the hot pot chain "Xiabuxiabu," which has transformed from a leading brand to a "penny stock" due to strategic missteps and increasing competition in the hot pot industry. The company reported a loss of 398 million yuan in 2024, accumulating losses of 1.2 billion yuan since 2021, with its stock price plummeting to 0.86 HKD per share [3][6][7]. Company Overview - Established in 1998, Xiabuxiabu initially thrived with its unique "Taiwan-style individual hot pot" model, gaining popularity in the market. However, recent strategic shifts during brand upgrades have led to significant financial losses [3][8]. - The company experienced rapid expansion after receiving investments in 2008 and 2012, reaching nearly 1,000 stores by 2022 and serving over 100 million customers [9][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Xiabuxiabu reported a loss of 398 million yuan, bringing total losses since 2021 to 1.2 billion yuan. The stock price has dropped from a peak of 27.15 HKD in 2021 to 0.86 HKD in 2025, resulting in a 97% decrease in market value [6][11]. Industry Challenges - The hot pot market is projected to exceed 650 billion yuan by 2025, but competition is intensifying. Major brands like Haidilao are expanding their market share, while smaller and emerging brands are capturing niche markets through differentiated offerings [4][20]. - The article highlights the need for hot pot brands to innovate in product offerings, enhance service quality, and optimize supply chains to maintain competitive advantages [20][21]. Strategic Missteps - Xiabuxiabu's attempt to upgrade its brand and increase prices led to a loss of its original customer base, as consumers shifted to lower-priced competitors. The company's failure to effectively manage this transition contributed to its financial decline [11][17]. - The brand's identity became muddled as it moved away from its initial value proposition of affordability, leading to decreased consumer trust and loyalty [17]. Recovery Efforts - In 2019, Xiabuxiabu acquired a key agricultural enterprise to strengthen its supply chain, aiming to enhance its operational capabilities and product offerings [13]. - The company has introduced a "Chongqi Card" to boost customer engagement, achieving sales of 2 million cards in 2024, with a significant increase in average spending among members [13][15]. Market Trends - The hot pot industry is experiencing a shift towards diverse regional flavors, with new entrants offering unique culinary experiences. This trend necessitates that established brands adapt to changing consumer preferences [20][21]. - The article suggests that brands should explore new growth opportunities in lower-tier cities and consider cross-industry collaborations to enhance their market presence [22].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall revenue fell by 7.9% to RMB 13.05 billion, primarily due to subdued macroeconomic demand and diminished foot traffic from offline customers [12][7] - Retail business revenue decreased by 8.9% to RMB 10.92 billion, while wholesale business revenue fell by 2.2% to RMB 2.04 billion [12] - The company registered a 35% decline in pretax profit, but operating cash flow rose by 2.5% [10][11] - The dividend payout ratio was 99.9%, maintaining a leading position in the industry [5][11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The main brand sales revenue fell by 8.1% to RMB 11.35 billion, contributing 87.6% to total sales revenue, while other brands accounted for 12.4% of revenue, marking a slight rise of 0.2% [12] - The gross profit margin experienced a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, attributed to increased discount rates and a shift in sales distribution towards lower-margin wholesale channels [12][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall consumer market remains unclear, but supportive macroeconomic policies are anticipated to stimulate consumption [5][36] - The company noted a shift in consumer behavior from in-person to online shopping, which has increased the pressure on physical retail [36][37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is committed to a flexible omni-channel strategy, enhancing integrated retail frameworks that merge online and offline channels [4][36] - There is a focus on broadening category layouts and solidifying market advantages across various sports sub-sectors [4][36] - The company aims to adapt to changing consumer preferences and enhance user experience through targeted optimizations [4][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by a sluggish macroeconomic environment but expressed confidence in the long-term strategy and cash flow management [5][36] - The company anticipates beneficial shifts in the consumer market as macroeconomic policies take effect, despite the current unclear market conditions [5][36] - Management remains cautious about the second half of the year, projecting a potential decline in profits [86][87] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a strong cash generation capability, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching a billion, marking a 2.5% rise from the same period last year [28][29] - The number of directly operated stores decreased by 396, with a focus on optimizing store layouts and improving efficiency [41][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inventory management and new CEO impact - The company plans to work with brands facing inventory issues and is optimistic about the new CEO's potential to improve product innovation and market share in China [61][66][70] Question: Strategies for the November 11 shopping event - The company is mobilizing online and offline resources for the shopping event, acknowledging high industry inventory levels and the importance of this sales opportunity [73][74] Question: Market sentiment and consumer behavior changes - Management noted that government initiatives, such as consumption coupons, are positively impacting consumer sentiment, although quantifiable effects remain uncertain [75][90]