2025年11月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：高库存累增与印尼风险博弈，低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：向上缺乏驱动，下方难言广阔 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：储能预期与现实双强，短期走势偏强 | 4 | | 工业硅：重心上移 | 6 | | 多晶硅：进入政策真空期，盘面交易供需逻辑 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 11 月 11 日 镍：高库存累增与印尼风险博弈，低位震荡 不锈钢：向上缺乏驱动，下方难言广阔 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 119,680 | 240 | -1,270 | -2,720 | -4,800 | ...

绿电ETF(562550)及其场外联接(018734/018735)跟踪中证绿色电力指数，不仅包括以水电、风电及光伏 发电为代表的清洁能源企业，同时也纳入了火电、核电等能源转型样本。 此前，中信证券研报表示，"十五五"规划建议中进一步明确了新型能源体系的重要地位，针对电力系统 建设指引了消纳、韧性、电气化等中长期的发展重心。该机构认为，政策进一步指引和夯实了特高压、 柔性直流输配电、数智化电网等环节的中长期机遇。同时，中短期来看，输变电设备内外需景气共振， 结构性需求持续显现，特高压、智能电网等环节有望迎来景气反转。 电网设备ETF(159326)是全市场唯一跟踪中证电网设备主题指数的ETF，从申万三级行业分类上看，指 数成分股的行业分布以输变电设备、电网自动化设备、线缆部件及其他、通信线缆及配套、配电设备为 主，拥有较强的代表性。特高压权重占比高达64%，全市场最高。 11月10日，两部门发布《关于促进新能源消纳和调控的指导意见》其中提出，到2035年，适配高比例新 能源的新型电力系统基本建成，新能源消纳调控体系进一步完善，全国统一电力市场在新能源资源配置 中发挥基础作用，新能源在全国范围内优化配置、高效消 ...

《意见》提出，大力推动新能源消纳新模式新业态创新发展。在创新新能源集成发展模式方面，《意 见》提出，研究制定促进新能源集成发展的政策举措，支持"沙戈荒"等新能源资源富集地区加强新能源 上下游产业链协同，建立集成发展产业体系。提升新能源装备制造绿电应用水平，实现"以绿造绿"。统 筹布局绿氢、氨、醇等绿色燃料制储输用一体化产业，打造"灵活负荷"。推进零碳园区建设。 在推动新能源与产业融合发展方面，《意见》要求，积极推进东部地区产业梯度转移和新能源基地就地 消纳协同对接，稳妥有序推动高载能产业向西部清洁能源优势地区转移。支持新能源资源富集地区实现 信息技术、高端装备制造、新材料等战略性新兴产业与新能源融合发展。加强新能源与算力设施协同规 划布局及优化运行，推动算力设施绿色发展。 在支持新能源就近消纳新业态发展方面。《意见》明确，推动源网荷储一体化、绿电直连、智能微电 网、新能源接入增量配电网等新能源就近消纳新业态健康可持续发展，支持新能源就近接入。此外， 《意见》还提出，完善促进新能源消纳的全国统一电力市场体系等。 11月10日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布《关于促进新能源消纳和调控的指导意见》。《意见》提 出， ...

Group 1 - The State Council issued measures to promote private investment, encouraging participation in low-altitude economy infrastructure and supporting the issuance of real estate investment trusts for qualified projects [1][1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to accelerate the development of key application scenarios in areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and industrial internet [2][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to enhance the consumption and regulation of renewable energy, aiming for a new power system by 2035 [3][3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that specific chemical exports to the US, Mexico, and Canada require licensing, while exports to other regions do not [4][4] - The Ministry of Commerce suspended countermeasures against five US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean for one year [5][5] - In October, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.282 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 1.3% [6][6] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in retail prices for gasoline and diesel, with an increase of 125 and 120 yuan per ton respectively, translating to an increase of 0.10 yuan per liter [7][7] - The Asset Management Association of China is seeking opinions on guidelines for managing thematic investment styles in public securities investment funds [8][8] - Southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect net bought 6.654 billion HKD, bringing the year-to-date net purchase to over 1.3 trillion HKD [9][9] Group 4 - Zhongbei Communication signed a 1 billion yuan comprehensive service framework agreement with Hongxin Electronics [10][10] - Super Electronics plans to invest 1.468 billion yuan in Thailand for an AI computing high-end PCB expansion project [10][10] - Ganfeng Lithium announced that its PPGS lithium salt lake project has obtained an environmental assessment report with approximately 15.07 million tons of LCE resources [12][12] Group 5 - The US stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.81%, S&P 500 up 1.54%, and Nasdaq up 2.27%, driven by gains in large tech stocks [17][17] - The Senate Majority Leader expressed hope for a vote on a temporary funding bill within hours, while the House Speaker indicated a vote could occur on Wednesday [18][18] - The Bank of Japan's Prime Minister plans to introduce a stimulus plan focusing on key areas such as chips and artificial intelligence [20][20]

Market Overview - On November 10, the A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53% to close at 4018.66, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.18% to 13427.61. The ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% to 3178.83 [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.17 trillion, an increase of 175.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The consumer sector experienced a significant rally, particularly in food and beverage stocks, which led the gains. Other active sectors included lithium batteries and solar energy, while the humanoid robot concept saw a decline [2] - Notable gainers included the liquor, tourism and hotel, and duty-free shop sectors, while gas, wind power equipment, and robotics sectors faced losses [2] International Market - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains on November 10, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 381.53 points (0.81%) to 47368.63, the S&P 500 increasing by 103.63 points (1.54%) to 6832.43, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 522.64 points (2.27%) to 23527.17 [4][5] - European markets also experienced upward movement, with the FTSE 100 rising by 104.58 points (1.08%), the CAC 40 increasing by 105.33 points (1.32%), and the DAX up by 390.03 points (1.65%) [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures rising by $0.38 to $60.13 per barrel (0.64%) and Brent crude oil futures increasing by $0.43 to $64.06 per barrel (0.68%) [4] Investment Trends - The investment community is focusing on the growth of the new energy vehicle market, with October retail sales reaching 1.282 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [8] - The Chinese government is promoting private investment in key infrastructure projects, encouraging private capital participation in sectors such as railways and energy [7] Fund Management - The China Fund Industry Association is seeking feedback on new guidelines aimed at controlling style drift and high concentration in theme-based investment funds, which have faced criticism in the past [6] Capital Flow - The liquor industry saw a net inflow of 29.81 billion, with a notable performance from Kweichow Moutai, while the consumer electronics sector experienced a significant outflow of 53.55 billion [12] - Key stocks with substantial net inflows included Cambridge Technology and China Duty Free, while major outflows were observed in Industrial Fulian and Xin Yisheng [13]

《意见》明确，分类引导新能源开发与消纳。在大型基地层面，重点推进三类场景协同发展：统筹"沙 戈荒"新能源基地外送与就地消纳，通过新能源集成发展、东部地区产业梯度转移、西部地区挖掘消纳 潜力等方式，促进"沙戈荒"新能源基地实现规模化就地消纳；优化水风光基地一体化开发与消纳，依托 西南大型水电基地，充分考虑水电调节特性，优化配置新能源；推动海上风电规范有序开发与消纳，落 实海洋经济高质量发展要求，科学布局海上风电，继续推动近海风电开发，有序推动深远海风电基地建 设。 《意见》提出，大力推动新能源消纳新模式新业态创新发展。在创新新能源集成发展模式方面，《意 见》提出，研究制定促进新能源集成发展的政策举措，支持"沙戈荒"等新能源资源富集地区加强新能源 上下游产业链协同，建立集成发展产业体系。提升新能源装备制造绿电应用水平，实现"以绿造绿"。统 筹布局绿氢、氨、醇等绿色燃料制储输用一体化产业，打造"灵活负荷"。推进零碳园区建设。 11月10日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布《关于促进新能源消纳和调控的指导意见》。《意见》提 出，到2030年，协同高效的多层次新能源消纳调控体系基本建立，持续保障新能源顺利接网、多元利 用 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. announced a one-year suspension of the 301 investigation measures against China's shipbuilding industry, including the suspension of port fees and tariffs on related equipment, marking a step towards mutual cooperation between the U.S. and China [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) introduced measures to promote private investment, encouraging participation in key sectors like railways and nuclear power, and supporting private enterprises in major technological projects [2] - The NDRC announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10, impacting consumer costs [2] Group 2 - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued guidelines for the "Double 11" online promotional activities, aiming to eliminate illegal practices such as "choose one from two" and "big data killing familiarity" [2] - The recent performance of listed securities firms has been strong, with a focus on brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, as well as advancements in AI applications within the industry [2][3] - Shandong Gold announced that its subsidiary needs to pay approximately 738 million yuan in corporate income tax and late fees, which is expected to impact the company's net profit by 230 million yuan [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. government is nearing the end of a shutdown, leading to significant gains in the stock market, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.54%, the Dow Jones increasing by 0.81%, and the Nasdaq climbing by 2.27% [1] - Chip stocks and AI-related stocks saw substantial increases, with the chip index rising by 3%, AMD up over 4%, Palantir nearly 9%, and Nvidia leading the tech giants with a nearly 6% increase [2] - CoreWeave, a cloud computing company, reported a more than 100% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, although it still experienced a post-earnings drop of over 5% [3] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Oil prices increased by over 1% during the day, marking a rebound for two consecutive days; gold prices rose nearly 3% to a two-week high; and copper prices also saw gains, reaching a one-week high [4] Group 3: Domestic Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released guidelines to promote the consumption and regulation of renewable energy [7] - The State Council issued measures to further promote private investment, proposing 13 targeted policy initiatives to expand access, eliminate bottlenecks, and strengthen guarantees [8] - The Ministry of Commerce addressed the U.S. decision to suspend the implementation of Section 301 investigations into Chinese shipbuilding and other industries [9] Group 4: Corporate Announcements - Fangzheng Technology plans to acquire 100% of Zhixiang Technology for 116 million yuan, focusing on AI classrooms and smart learning spaces [19] - Zhongbei Communication signed a 1 billion yuan comprehensive service framework agreement with Hongxin Electronics [20] - Several companies announced significant investments, including Shangtai Technology's 4.07 billion yuan project for lithium-ion battery anode materials and Chaoying Electronics' 1.468 billion yuan investment in AI circuit board expansion in Thailand [21] Group 5: Industry Trends - The logistics sector is set to benefit from the implementation of a plan to open up logistics data, aiming to reduce overall logistics costs in China [14] - The AI voice market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it will reach $10.05 billion by 2025 and expand to $19.48 billion by 2033 [15] - Advances in perovskite solar cells have been reported, with a prototype achieving a conversion efficiency of 27.2%, which could significantly impact the solar energy market [16]

Group 1: Government Policies - The State Council issued measures to stimulate private investment, proposing 13 targeted policy initiatives [1][2] - Private capital participation in certain projects like railways and nuclear power can exceed 10% after special feasibility studies [2] - Support for private enterprises to lead major technological breakthroughs and establish significant pilot platforms [2] Group 2: Energy Sector - By 2030, a multi-level renewable energy consumption and regulation system is expected to be established, ensuring smooth integration and efficient operation of renewable energy [3] - The new power system will significantly enhance adaptability and regulation capabilities, meeting an annual demand for over 200 million kilowatts of new renewable energy [3] Group 3: Company News - Zhongbei Communication signed a framework agreement for a 1 billion yuan comprehensive computing power service with Xiamen Hongxin Electronics [4] - *ST Yuancheng's stock will be suspended due to continuous low market capitalization, with a potential delisting notice received [5] - Victory Shares plans to acquire gas-related assets and raise matching funds, with stock resuming trading [6] - Lingzhi Software is planning a major asset restructuring through the acquisition of a financial technology company [6] - Shangtai Technology intends to invest approximately 4.07 billion yuan in a lithium-ion battery anode material project in Shanxi [8] Group 4: Market Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that technology growth is currently the most logical investment direction, with a focus on AI, new energy, and resources [9] - Huatai Securities indicates a shift in market focus towards advanced manufacturing and consumer sectors, with potential opportunities in power equipment and new energy industries [9]

Core Insights - The recent policy guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aims to promote high-quality development of renewable energy in China, establishing a clear implementation path for the sector [1] Group 1: Policy and Industry Impact - The "Guiding Opinions" outline key tasks such as enhancing the adaptability of new power systems to renewable energy and improving the national unified electricity market system [1] - By 2030, a multi-level renewable energy consumption and regulation system is expected to be established, ensuring the integration and efficient operation of renewable energy sources [1] - The policy is anticipated to benefit sectors like offshore wind, solar, hydropower, energy storage, and ultra-high voltage technology [1] Group 2: Offshore Wind and Hydropower - The guidance emphasizes the orderly development and consumption of offshore wind energy, including the construction of deep-sea wind power bases and trial projects for ultra-large deep-sea wind turbines [2] - The report from the Central Financial Committee highlights the strategic importance of the marine economy, projecting that China's marine production value will exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [2] - The guidance also focuses on optimizing hydropower configurations and enhancing the utilization of existing hydropower transmission channels [2] Group 3: Energy Storage and Technological Development - The policy stresses the need for advanced and safe energy storage technologies, promoting the development of various storage methods such as flow batteries and compressed air storage [2] - The emphasis on innovative energy storage solutions aims to enhance the adaptability of new power systems to renewable energy [2] Group 4: Company Performance - Huadian International Power's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 59.953 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.98% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 13.15% to 3.904 billion yuan [4] - Datang Power's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 89.345 billion yuan, down 1.82% year-on-year, but net profit rose by 51.48% to 6.712 billion yuan [5] - Huaneng International Power reported a revenue of 60.94 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, while net profit surged by 89% to 5.58 billion yuan, significantly exceeding expectations [5] - Xinyi Energy's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.67%, with net profit rising by 23.43% to 450 million yuan [6]