证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 策略周报 两会前后市场如何演绎？ 两会前后市场及风格、行业特征或与政策导向有关。那么为何两会前后 A 股 存在明显的日历效应？这是由于历年全国两会是观察今年经济工作动向的 重要窗口，往往对市场行情产生重要影响。宏观层面看，两会前稳增长政策 预期通常升温、融资交易活跃，市场风格也偏向小盘；两会召开期间随着政 策部署，前期预期兑现，市场情绪阶段性回落，行情表现也多为震荡休整； 两会后随着全年政策目标明确，各类政策加速落地，叠加高频数据往往季节 性上行，易推动乐观预期发酵，与宏观经济相关度较高的顺周期板块胜率也 往往较高。产业层面看，两会前后资金往往围绕产业政策布局，且历年两会 报告中提及的重点产业往往能成为当年的投资热点， 核心观点 策略研究·策略周报 从春季行情望继续，均衡配置为佳。当前多重因素有望支撑春季行情延续： 一是国内宏观政策面延续积极；二是特朗普访华预期提振市场风偏；三 是近期资金面已重回增量。从中长期的视角看，未来随着宏微观基本面 的修复由点到面扩散，配合居民资金入市，2026 年 A 股牛市有望走向后 半场。结构上行业轮动或加快，均衡配置为佳，阶段性关注资 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 策略周报 两会前后市场如何演绎？ 核心结论：①历年两会前后市场上涨概率较高，且顺周期行业胜率更高。② 两会前后市场表现与政策预期有关，政策及预期变化往往对行情产生重要影 响。③多重积极因素支撑下，春季行情仍在延续，结构上均衡配置，科技中 重视 AI 应用，关注资源品、地产白酒等。 春季行情仍在延续，近期成交放量。自去年 12 月中旬以来春季行情逐渐 展开，1 月中旬后受海内外流动性等因素干扰，A 股春季行情短期歇脚； 但节前在红包效应的提振下，叠加假期间全球流动性预期修正、国内政 策预期发酵，2 月初以来 A 股春季行情延续，26/02/03 至今上证指数涨 跌幅为 3.7%/近一周涨跌幅为 2.0%，沪深 300 为 2.3%/1.1%，万得全 A 为 5.2%/2.7%。节后市场成交也重回放量。从春季行情的时间规律看， 历史上行情多数在两会前结束，但牛市中却未必，例如 07 年、16 年、 17 年、19 年、25 年，行情均延续到两会后。 历年两会前后市场上涨概率大，顺周期行业上涨概率高。复盘 05 年至今两 会前后市场表现，可以发现市场、风格及行业表现存在一定 ...

市场早盘震荡拉升，中证A500指数上涨1.4%。从板块来看，锂矿概念快速拉升，稀土永磁概念表现活跃，油气股反复走强；下跌方面，影视院线概念走 弱。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 IOPV 溢折率 换手率 | 成交3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512050 | A500ETF基金 | 1.262 | 1.2611 0.07% 18.13% 1.53% | 68 | | 563360 | A500ETF华泰柏瑞 | 1.340 | 1.36% 1.3386 0.10% 13.26% | 58 | | 159338 | 中证A500ETF | 1.269 | 1.52% 1.2688 0.02% 15.25% | 51 | | 159352 | A500ETF南方 | 1.318 | 1.31% 1.3190 -0.08% 9.69% | 40 | | 159361 | A500ETF易方达 | 1.291 | 1.49% 1.2913 -0.02% 8.26% | 24 | | 159351 | A500ETF嘉实 | 1.274 | 1.35% 1.27 ...

在经历了春节长假的休整之后，2月24日A股市场量价齐升，资金入场意愿较为强烈。 与此同时，结构性分化的暗流也在涌动。油气、有色、化工等资源品板块全线走强，影视院线、AI应 用等题材则显著回调。这种"冰火两重天"的格局，使得A股在马年的平稳开局中暗藏分歧。多家一线私 募机构在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，马年A股首日走势验证了节前的乐观预期，但市场主线也在 逐步切换，投资者需要在"科技"与"资源"的双线逻辑中重新校准攻守节奏。 双轮驱动特征明显 "A股马年首个交易日整体呈现出全线高开、放量走强的行情，上证指数等主要指数同步走高，市场交 投活跃度显著提升。"畅力资产董事长宝晓辉表示，结合春节假期外围市场整体偏暖、资金回流预期较 强的大背景，A股的表现基本符合市场的普遍预期。 奶酪基金投资经理李铭洛则观察到盘面的双轮驱动特征，24日盘面呈现清晰的"资源品+科技成长"双轮 驱动格局——油气能源、贵金属等资源板块与AI算力、半导体、机器人等硬科技赛道领涨，前期涨幅 较大的影视、短剧游戏等题材则有所回调。"这一表现基本兑现了节前市场对'红包行情'的预期，主要 驱动力来自假期期间海外科技股上涨、地缘风险推升避险资产价格以及 ...

中国银行保险资产管理业协会(以下简称"银行保险资管业协会")近日发布的"保险机构2026年资产配置展 望调查结果"显示，保险机构今年普遍看好的境内投资资产是股票和证券投资基金。其中，多数保险机 构对2026年A股市场持较乐观的态度，并计划小幅增配A股。同时，2026年保险机构最看好的境外投资 品种是港股，黄金投资和美股投资也受到保险机构较大关注。 此外，银行保险资管业协会发布的银行保险资产管理行业投资信心指数显示，权益投资信心指数显著上 升。 境外投资看好港股 银行保险资管业协会表示，此次调查更加突出"资产配置"导向。127家保险机构参与反馈，包括36家保 险资产管理机构和91家保险公司。 调查结果显示，从大类资产配置来看，股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资资 产。多数保险机构预计对银行存款、债券、证券投资基金及其他金融资产的配置比例与2025年基本持 平，部分保险机构有意愿适度或微幅增加股票投资。 从债券配置来看，多数保险机构对2026年债券市场持中性态度。利率债方面，保险机构预计10年期国债 收益率将处于1.8%—1.9%(含)，30年期国债收益率将集中在2.2%—2.4%(含)。信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has become more challenging in 2023, with increased volatility and a shift from broad market gains to sector-specific performance [4][5]. Market Dynamics - Last year saw a general rise in stock prices, but this year has experienced a more differentiated market where some sectors thrive while others falter [5][10]. - The performance of stocks is now heavily influenced by tangible orders and earnings rather than speculative narratives [9][10]. Sector Performance - Certain sectors, such as AI computing power, optical modules, and storage chips, are experiencing strong demand with orders extending into the end of the year [5]. - Conversely, stocks driven by hype without solid fundamentals, such as some AI applications and non-core technology companies, are facing significant volatility [5][7]. Stock Examples - Companies like Zhihui Technology and MiniMax have seen drastic declines of 22% and 13% respectively due to overvaluation and unmet expectations [6][7]. - In contrast, companies like Huagong Technology, which have solid orders, are maintaining stable stock prices [8]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on stocks with real orders and performance metrics, rather than those reliant on market sentiment [10][13]. - Maintaining a low cost basis is crucial, as high entry costs can lead to panic during market fluctuations [11]. - It is recommended to avoid full positions and to keep cash available for future opportunities, as the market will continue to present chances for investment [12][14]. Actionable Steps - Review and adjust holdings to prioritize stocks with tangible performance over speculative ones [13]. - Control trading rhythm by avoiding high-risk purchases and being strategic about selling and buying [14]. - Exercise patience, as significant market movements are expected to unfold over time rather than in a straight line [15].

早上好，明天是马年首个交易日，祝大家交易顺利，马到成功！ 先来关注下国际局势。 俄罗斯莫斯科多个机场限制飞机起降 据央视新闻消息，当地时间22日，俄罗斯联邦航空运输署对俄首都莫斯科的伏努科沃机场、多莫杰多沃 机场、茹科夫斯基机场和谢列梅捷沃机场的飞机起降实施限制。 目前美伊官方对此暂无回应。 据悉，这些限制措施对于确保飞行安全是必要的。俄联邦航空运输署并未透露限制措施的具体细节，也 未说明这些措施将持续多久。 另据莫斯科市长索比亚宁当日在社交媒体上发布的消息，俄防空部队击落了11架飞往莫斯科的无人机。 普京：发展"三位一体"核力量是绝对优先事项 据央视新闻消息，当地时间23日是俄罗斯"祖国保卫者日"，俄罗斯总统普京发表视频讲话，表示俄罗斯 将根据国际局势的发展，基于特别军事行动中获得的战斗经验，继续开展大规模加强陆海军的工作。 普京强调，发展"三位一体"核力量依然是俄方绝对的优先事项，核力量作为俄罗斯安全的保障，能够有 效保持战略威慑和世界力量平衡。 普京表示，俄还将全面提升各军兵种的力量、战备状态、机动性以及在任何复杂条件下行动的能力，并 将进一步加快研发先进武器系统的步伐。 阿曼外交大臣：美伊下一轮谈判将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is characterized by a blend of upward continuation and short-term volatility, necessitating investment strategies that align with risk preferences and market dynamics [1][2]. Market Conditions - Analysts believe that the market is poised for an upward trend driven by four key factors: ample liquidity, policy catalysts, calendar effects, and the interplay of valuation and earnings [3][4]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is seen as a critical period for investment decisions, with historical data indicating a strong performance of the market during this time [2][4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on two main lines: technology growth and resource products, while also diversifying into cyclical consumption, price increases, and defensive assets [6][7]. - For medium-risk investors, a balanced approach involving profit-taking and a "barbell strategy" is suggested, combining dividend and technology assets [2][3]. Sector Insights - The technology sector is expected to be a core focus for long-term investments, particularly in AI and related fields, with a shift from hardware to application-based investments anticipated in 2026 [6][7]. - The cyclical and resource sectors are highlighted for their potential price increases and recovery opportunities, with specific attention to industrial metals and energy products [7][8]. Defensive Assets - High-dividend assets are recommended as a core component of defensive strategies, with sectors such as utilities, banks, and consumer staples being favored for their stability and yield [8]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio that balances offensive and defensive assets to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations and external uncertainties [8].

新华财经上海2月3日电（记者 魏雨田）近期A股市场持续波动，板块呈现显著分化格局。上银基金认 为，A股市场中期向上的趋势并未发生根本改变。支撑这一判断的核心逻辑包括三方面：一是全球"资 产紧缺"的大背景持续延续，叠加全球地缘政治冲突频发，"耐心资本"流入股市的长期趋势未变；二是 国内"反内卷"政策持续深入推进，企业盈利改善预期逐步升温，为资本市场形成托底；三是当前板块的 快速调整更多是短期市场情绪及交易层面的反应，并未动摇中长期向上的趋势。 具体到中长期投资机会，上银基金表示，可关注三类机会：其一，AI相关产业。在科技自主可控的政 策导向下，国内AI产业链支持政策持续落地，预计全球算力领域资本开支将进一步扩大，AI端侧普及 率将稳步提升，后续可关注国产算力链、AI+游戏等投资机会。其二，中国品牌竞争力提升方向。中国 品牌制造已实现从"便宜货"到"质优价廉且盈利稳定"，再到多个领域实现"跨越发展"的转变，其中，国 产品牌出海领域，尤其是创新药、电力设备、工程机械等已实现弯道超车或自主份额持续提升的细分赛 道，值得重点关注。其三，资源品领域。铜、小金属等资源品具备真实稀缺性与抗通胀属性，且易形成 稳定的供给联盟， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a rebound with the Hang Seng Index opening at 26,995.76 points, up by 220.19 points, or 0.82% [2]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index opened at 5,563.79 points, increasing by 37.48 points, or 0.68% [4]. - Gold stocks showed a rebound, with companies like Lingbao Gold (HK03330), Luoyang Molybdenum (HK03993), and China Gold International (HK02099) rising over 3%, while Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and Jiangxi Copper gained over 2% [6]. Sector Analysis - According to Guotai Junan, the primary reason for the recent decline in precious metals was the previous irrational surge, leading to profit-taking and increased volatility due to retail leverage [7]. - The medium-term outlook suggests that as the deleveraging process concludes, gold prices may stabilize, with a long-term bullish trend expected due to ongoing global monetary system restructuring and central bank gold purchases [7]. Stock Highlights - Tech stocks generally rose, with NetEase increasing over 3%, Bilibili over 2%, and Alibaba and Kuaishou both up over 1% [6]. - Chinese brokerage stocks were active, with China Merchants Securities rising over 1% [6]. - Chip stocks opened higher, with Zhaoyi Innovation increasing over 5% [6]. Future Outlook - Huatai Securities believes that the recent pullback in the Hong Kong market creates an opportunity for entry, with expectations of a recovery trend [8]. - Key areas to focus on include the AI supply chain and semiconductor sectors, which are expected to benefit from clearer market dynamics and stronger performance [8]. - The report suggests maintaining an overweight position in resource stocks, insurance, and local Hong Kong stocks after stabilization [8].