"在投资的路上，我们都需要持续进步""弱水三千，我只要取属于我的那一瓢""希望2026年的收益能超 过2025年""2026年会更关注产业层面的机会""希望2026年的A股市场能够更稳健、平稳地发展"……一位 位投资者对2026年A股市场表达期许。 2025年，A股市场持续上涨，上证指数一度站上4000点，A股总市值、成交额、融资余额等连创纪录。 2026年资本市场的画卷即将展开，投资者对2026年A股市场充满期待。业内人士表示，2026年我国宏观 经济有望在政策支持下保持稳健复苏态势，A股市场资金面有望保持活跃，基本面重要性进一步上升， 全年市场有望延续上行趋势。 ● 本报记者 吴玉华 马爽 政策加码可期 夯实经济回升基础 "夯实基础、全面发力""双宽松护航""更上层阶""乘势而上"……梳理多家券商对2026年国内宏观经济展 望的关键词可见，作为"十五五"开局之年，政策协同推动经济稳健复苏已成共识。尽管面临外部环境变 化与内部结构调整，但中国宏观经济有望在政策支持下延续稳健复苏态势。 前瞻性政策部署已筑牢根基。2025年末召开的中央经济工作会议明确"稳中求进、提质增效"的政策取 向，为2026年政策发力定调 ...

来源：中信建投证券研究 文|夏凡捷 A股跨年行情如期展开，今年元旦市场面临的流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年，多重利好推动港 股大涨，A股有望迎来开门红行情。行业主要围绕半导体、AI和未来产业热点展开。行业重点关注：半 导体、AI、非银、新能源，机械设备；中长期看好：有色（工业金属、小金属）、创新药等；主题重 点关注：商业航天、核电、人形机器人、海南（免税）。 A股开年能否迎来开门红？ 过去两年市场开年下跌有一个共性原因来自全球流动性变化和人民币的贬值压力。今年元旦市场面临的 流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年。人民币汇率保持强劲，有利的外部环境或将推动A股元旦后迎 来"开门红"行情。同时国内流动性环境整体宽松，也有利于跨年行情的展开。人民币升值、科技板块利 好集中释放、宏观经济预期改善及资金面积极信号等多重利好共同推动港股开年大涨，这些利好也同样 有望推动A股跨年行情的继续演绎。 元旦假期重要事件和对市场的影响 美国突袭委内瑞拉对市场有何影响？从短期看，我们认为作为2026年第一场战争，地缘政治的紧张将导 致黄金和原油价格阶段性上涨，避险资金则推动美元走强，由于未发展为大规模战争，整体影响预计有 限。中长 ...

当新年的日历翻向2026年，2025年ETF"竞技场"的榜单也最终定格。 对于ETF市场而言，2025年的关键词无疑是收获与跨越——6万亿元，这个曾经看似遥不可及的数字，如今已刻在ETF发展的里程碑上。Wind数据显示， 截至2025年末，全市场ETF规模达到6.02万亿元，全年规模激增逾六成；ETF产品数量跃升至1401只，大类资产配置工具日趋丰富。 从产品结构看，宽基ETF依然占据主导地位，华泰柏瑞、易方达、华夏旗下三大沪深300ETF牢牢占据规模榜前三。与此同时，行业与主题ETF引领结构性 行情，通信、人工智能、有色金属等领域涌现出一批收益率超过100%的"牛基"。此外，债券ETF、商品ETF及跨境ETF规模大幅增长，港股通互联网ETF 成为年度资金净流入最多的ETF。 ETF市场竞争格局进一步清晰。华夏、易方达、华泰柏瑞基金稳居ETF管理规模前三。此外，还有华夏、易方达、国泰、富国等4家基金公司旗下ETF2025 年资金净流入超千亿元。 在资本市场改革持续深化、长期资金加速入市的背景下，ETF市场已从简单的交易型工具进化为配置的基石，成为连接资产端与资金端的重要桥梁。 总规模首次突破6万亿元 连续跨过 ...

Market Performance - On December 19, all three major A-share indices closed higher, with over 80% of more than 1,300 ETFs in the market also rising [1] - The Hong Kong automotive-themed ETFs led the market, with six products ranking among the top ten in daily gains, each rising over 3% [1] Trading Activity - ETF trading was active, with total trading volume exceeding 450 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 25 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - Twelve ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan, with several bond ETFs seeing significant increases in trading volume [2][6] Net Inflows - On December 18, the ETF market saw a net inflow of over 17 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan [3][8] - Over the past five trading days, the total net inflow into ETFs has surpassed 87 billion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The Hong Kong automotive ETFs performed exceptionally well, with six out of seven ETFs in this category seeing gains, and 38 out of 46 component stocks closing higher [4] - The total scale of the seven Hong Kong automotive ETFs is approximately 1.168 billion yuan, with the largest ETF having a scale of about 528 million yuan [4] Specific ETF Performance - The top-performing ETFs on December 19 included several automotive and tourism ETFs, with notable gains ranging from 2.92% to 3.35% [5] - Bond ETFs were particularly active, with the Shanghai Company Bond ETF's trading volume increasing to over 10 billion yuan, a 4.2-fold increase from the previous day [6][7] Investment Trends - The A500 ETF and the Sci-Tech Bond ETF attracted significant net inflows, with the A500 ETF seeing over 4 billion yuan in net inflows on December 18 [8][9] - Conversely, several military-themed ETFs experienced substantial net outflows, totaling over 2.9 billion yuan in the past five trading days [10] Fund Management Changes - Multiple ETFs announced changes to their fund names, aligning with new regulations from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [11] Sector Insights - Investment opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector are gaining attention, with expectations for a stable upward trend in 2026 [12] - Analysts suggest focusing on companies with global intellectual property and strong cash flow in the pharmaceutical sector [12]

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline with all three major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, and ChiNext Index down 1.12% [1] Sector Performance - Coal, wind power equipment, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors showed strong gains, while energy metals, internet services, and software development sectors faced significant declines [1] - Main capital inflows were observed in small metals, optical electronics, and non-ferrous metals industries [1] ETF Performance - Related ETFs such as those in non-ferrous metals, electricity, and traditional Chinese medicine performed well, likely influenced by relevant news [1] Federal Reserve Insights - China Galaxy Securities noted that market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have exceeded 80%, leading to a rebound in gold prices and a new high for silver prices [1] - The ongoing rate cut cycle and potential shift from balance sheet reduction to expansion may continue to support rising prices for gold and silver [1] Resource Sector Outlook - CITIC Construction indicated that conditions are accumulating for a strong performance in resource products, which may become a new main investment theme in A-shares following technology [1] - The competition for key resources amid external geopolitical tensions is expected to be a significant factor driving the strength of resource products [1] New Energy and Grid Investment - Zhongyou Securities highlighted that the demand for new energy consumption is surging under the "dual carbon" goals, leading to a rapid growth cycle in grid investment [2] - The urgency for smart grid upgrades, along with infrastructure needs for ultra-high voltage channels and distribution network improvements, is driving this investment trend [2] Traditional Chinese Medicine Pricing Regulation - The launch of the drug price registration system in China is part of a broader initiative to regulate the prices of traditional Chinese medicine [3] - Multiple regions, including Heilongjiang, Anhui, and others, are actively implementing price governance measures targeting high-priced traditional Chinese medicines [3] - The goal is to establish a unified, open, and competitively ordered drug market across the country [3]

数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证800自由现金流指数(932368)前十大权重股分别为中国海油 (600938)、美的集团(000333)、格力电器(000651)、中远海控(601919)、五粮液(000858)、洛阳钼业 (603993)、中国铝业(601600)、牧原股份(002714)、TCL科技(000100)、陕西煤业(601225)，前十大权重 股合计占比58.6%。 现金流ETF800(516460)，场外联接(A：024655；C：024656；I：024657)。 截至2025年12月3日 13:54，中证800自由现金流指数(932368)上涨0.98%，成分股杰瑞股份(002353)上涨 10.00%，云铝股份(000807)上涨5.29%，天山铝业(002532)上涨4.60%，中国铝业(601600)上涨4.54%， TCL科技(000100)上涨4.32%。现金流ETF800(516460)上涨0.98%，最新价报1.24元。 临近年末，价值风格逆势走强，机构指出，维持A股年末休整期的判断，短期涨跌空间有限，建议以守 为攻，风格上强调平衡配置，适当关注回调充分且产业逻辑 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The Composite PMI Output Index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating overall economic stability [1] Group 2: Company News - Tongyu Communication announced that its stock price had abnormal fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in two consecutive trading days, but confirmed that there were no undisclosed significant matters [7] - Xiaomi Auto reported the opening of 17 new stores in November, bringing the total to 441 stores across 131 cities, with plans for 36 more stores in December [8] - Aorede plans to sign a comprehensive technical service agreement worth approximately 635 million yuan, aimed at enhancing its capabilities in providing computing power services [8] - ST Tianrui announced that its controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock trading [8] - China Shenhua's subsidiary successfully completed a 168-hour trial run of its power generation unit, with further expansions planned to enhance regional power supply [9] - Daqian Ecology's chairman resigned for personal reasons, with no impact on the board's operation or company management [9] Group 3: Market Trends - According to a report by Galaxy Securities, funds are shifting from high-valuation growth stocks to undervalued cyclical stocks and dividend assets, indicating a rising appeal for defensive sectors [10] - CITIC Construction Investment anticipates an early spring market rally, recommending investments in technology growth and resource sectors, with a focus on non-ferrous metals, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [11]

1、 12月一批新规将实施。资源税征管新规12月1日起施行，明确部分情形不缴纳资源税 ；《证券结算风险基金管理办法》12月8日起施行，调整计收范围 和交纳比例等；海南自贸港12月18日启动全岛封关运作；《市场监督管理信用修复管理办法》12月25日起施行，扩大信用修复范围等。 1、 国家统计局发布数据显示，11月份我国制造业PMI为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点； 非制造业PMI为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点；综合PMI产 出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平稳。 7、 中信建投发布研报表示，尽管市场短期可能仍有波动，但如有下跌则是更好的布局机会。 慢牛格局仍未改变，明年春季躁动在共识下有望提前。可在 12月中旬关键会议之前择机布局，备战跨年行情。重点布局科技成长和资源品等景气赛道。行业重点关注：有色（铜、银）、AI（通信、计算机）、新 能源、创新药、机械设备、港股互联网、化工等。主题重点关注：商业航天。 2、 国家发改委负责人表示，鼓励支持引导广大民营企业把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革、超大规模国内市场、城乡区域协调发展等民间投资发展机遇， 进一步拓宽市场准入空间、 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a slight rebound this week, but overall sentiment continued to decline, indicating weak rebound strength and ongoing challenges from resistance levels above [1][2] - Despite potential short-term volatility, the company believes that any downturn could present better investment opportunities, maintaining a slow bull market outlook with expectations for an early spring rally next year [1][2] - The company recommends strategic positioning ahead of key meetings in mid-December to prepare for the year-end market trends, focusing on sectors such as technology growth and resource commodities [1][2] Group 2 - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, AI (communications, computing), new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, Hong Kong internet stocks, and chemicals [1][2] - Thematic focus should be on commercial aerospace, indicating a specific area of interest for potential investment opportunities [1][2]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) industry received a positive boost with NVIDIA's Q3 revenue reaching $57 billion, a 62% year-on-year increase, leading to a significant stock price surge of over 6% in after-hours trading [1] - The concentration of AI-related stocks in the S&P 500 has reached historical highs, with the "Big Seven" tech companies accounting for 47% of the index [1][3] - Despite the promising financial data, the capital market history indicates that revolutionary technologies often come with inherent risks and uncertainties [3] Investment Opportunities - The demand for industrial resources is expected to rise as AI technologies require substantial physical resources for training and operation, suggesting a potential investment opportunity in resource commodities [4][5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data centers will require 945 TWh of electricity by 2030, with China's data center electricity consumption growing at a compound annual growth rate of 18% [6] - Historical economic cycles, such as the Kondratiev wave, suggest that technological revolutions like AI can lead to increased demand for commodities, similar to past industrial booms [8][10] Market Dynamics - The current macroeconomic environment resembles the 1970s stagflation, where despite technological advancements, inflationary pressures could lead to a bull market for commodities like oil and gold [11][12] - The investment logic for resource commodities is supported by the dual drivers of AI and energy transition, indicating a potential long-term value reassessment [15] - The cyclical nature of resource investments highlights the importance of recognizing fundamental value anchors rather than chasing every technological trend [15]