Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral. The 25/26 annual production, consumption, and inventory data from different institutions show a balanced situation overall. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report indicates a production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons in the 25/26 period [4]. - Currently, new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the production may be less than previously estimated. The export tariff to the US has decreased by 10% compared to the previous period. The futures main contract 01 is approaching delivery, with limited downside space, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Negative factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, a large amount of new cotton about to be listed, and the current traditional consumption off - season [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - Different institutions have different estimates of cotton production, consumption, and inventory in the 25/26 period. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report shows a production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons; the USDA 9 - month report shows a production of 2562.2 tons, consumption of 2587.2 tons, and an ending inventory of 1592.5 tons; the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's November 25/26 forecast has a production of 660 tons, imports of 140 tons, consumption of 740 tons, and an ending inventory of 845 tons [4]. - In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. Cotton imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.2每日提示 - The basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,842, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1282, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's November 25/26 forecast of ending inventory is 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - The market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish [6]. 3.3今日关注 - There is no specific content marked as "今日关注" in the report. 3.4基本面数据 - Global production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data from the USDA's September forecast are presented, showing the situation of different countries and regions. For example, in terms of production, the total global production in the 25/26 period is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons [14]. - The Chinese cotton supply - demand balance sheet shows data on initial inventory, sown area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, ending inventory, domestic cotton average price, and the Cotlook A index from 2023/24 to 2025/26 [17]. 3.5持仓数据 There is no specific content about "持仓数据" in the report. 3.6预期 - New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and production may be less than previously estimated. The export tariff to the US has decreased by 10%. The futures main contract 01 is approaching delivery, with limited downside space, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton market lacks upward momentum, and cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillation, waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report on Friday [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,560 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session close of 13,535 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decline. CY2601 closed at 19,855 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily decline and 19,820 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% decline. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 63.93 cents/pound with a 0.64% decline. Trading volumes of CF2601 and CY2601 decreased by 115,823 and 1,999 hands respectively compared to the previous day, while their positions increased by 8,762 and 1,045 hands respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts increased by 325 to 3,619, and the effective forecast decreased by 237 to 1,154. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19, and the effective forecast increased by 7 to 12 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,534 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,458 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan or 0.14%. The 3128B index was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.73 cents/pound, up 1 cent or 1.22% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 0, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970, with no change compared to the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading showed little change, with overall performance being average, and the spot basis remained stable. Different regions in Xinjiang had different sales basis prices [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The cotton yarn market was lukewarm, with 40 - count yarn having better sales. Due to the reduction of Sino - US trade tariffs, traceability orders improved. Spinning mills had high operating intentions due to good cash flow. Cotton yarn prices mostly remained stable, and there was a differentiation in the sales of cotton grey cloth [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures declined slightly, and both the international market and US cotton itself lacked upward drivers, so the ICE cotton futures remained in a low - level oscillation [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market are neutral. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the production may be lower than previously estimated. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10%. The short - term support level for the futures main contract 01 is around 13,500, and it is expected to continue with a volatile and bullish trend [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year. ICAC's November report shows a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. USDA's September report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November forecast for the 2025/26 year shows production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [5]. - **Expected Situation**: New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, with possible lower production than previously estimated. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10%. The short - term support level for the futures main contract 01 is around 13,500, and it is expected to continue with a volatile and bullish trend [6]. - **Base Difference**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,844, and the base difference is 1264 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's November 2025/26 year forecast for ending inventory is 8.45 million tons, which is a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Trends**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, and the main trend is bearish [7]. - **Bullish Factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the commercial inventory is lower year - on - year. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10% [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton is about to come onto the market, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the report 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global production in the 2025/26 year is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [15][16]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); global trade volume is 0.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with narrower year - on - year fluctuations [17]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: For the 2025/26 year, the estimated production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [19]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the report

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures closed higher with fluctuations. For example, CF2601 opened at 13,535 yuan/ton, closed at 13,605 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2605 opened at 13,545 yuan/ton, closed at 13,615 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. CF2609 opened at 13,715 yuan/ton, closed at 13,785 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [7] - The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton had various prices and basis quotes [7] - Pure cotton yarn trading was mediocre. High - count yarn sales were okay, while low - count yarn sales were weaker than the previous two weeks. The grey fabric market had poor production and sales, with no large orders and difficult access to export orders [8] Operation Suggestions - In the domestic market, Xinjiang seed cotton procurement is approaching the end, with short - term driving forces weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and low - basis transactions are good. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is rigid demand. From November 10, 2025, the import tariff rate of US cotton quota will drop from 26% to 11%. The overall trading center is expected to move up slowly with fluctuations [8] Group 3: Industry News - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of alternative delivery goods for cotton futures starting from the 2026/27 production year. For out - of - range color grades due to natural variation during the re - evaluation period, the premium and discount will refer to the "2025 November Saw - ginned Fine - staple Cotton Quality Price Difference Table" issued by the China Cotton Association [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, and various price spreads and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the cotton industry as expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,615 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.59% and a night - session close at 13,630 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase. CY2601 closed at 19,820 yuan/ton with a 0.13% daily increase and a night - session close at 19,890 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase. ICE cotton 12 closed at 65.07 cents/pound with a - 0.12% decrease [1] - **Transaction and Position Data**: CF2601 had a trading volume of 381,948 lots, an increase of 133,555 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 943,370 lots, an increase of 23,742 lots. CY2601 had a trading volume of 12,268 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 25,021 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton had 2,752 warehouse receipts, an increase of 182, and 1,377 valid forecasts, a decrease of 40. Cotton yarn had 6 warehouse receipts, unchanged, and 12 valid forecasts, a decrease of 6 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,589 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.41%. The price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,513 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan or - 0.05%. The 3128B index was 14,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan or - 0.11% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Local low - basis cotton spot transactions remained good, and the supply of low - basis spot goods gradually increased. Different grades of northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton had different basis quotes [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable overall, with significant regional differentiation. Xinjiang textile enterprises reported smooth sales and good orders for medium - and high - count yarns, while the mainland market had a weak trading atmosphere, and some enterprises slightly reduced prices to clear inventory [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to the decline in crude oil prices. However, due to the improvement in international economic and trade relations, the market expected an improvement in global and US cotton demand, and ICE cotton was more resilient than in October [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the cotton industry is "oscillation", indicating a short - term outlook of the market moving within a range [3]. Core View of the Report - The short - term demand side of the cotton market performs averagely, and the supply side maintains a loose pattern, so the cotton futures market may experience range - bound oscillations. Influencing factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc., present different driving forces. The supply is short - term bearish and long - term bullish; demand, profit, and valuation are bullish; inventory is bearish; and the impact of basis/spread and macro - policy is neutral [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Currently in the period of concentrated processing and inspection of new cotton, the selling pressure on the spot market persists. Market expectations include a possible reduction in the cotton target direct subsidy price in the next three years in the Central No. 1 Document in January - February 2026, a possible decrease in the planting area in March 2026, and a seasonal speculation window for domestic production area weather in April 2026 [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. Downstream yarn mills have low raw material inventories and strong restocking intentions. Seasonal pre - holiday restocking from the end of the fourth quarter to the beginning of the first quarter of 2026 may increase demand. Spinning profits have improved significantly compared to the third quarter, which is beneficial for mill operations and restocking [3]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. As new cotton is massively listed, inventory gradually accumulates [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis for pre - sold new cotton delivered before the end of January 2026 is 678, and the spread between Zhengzhou Cotton's January and May contracts fluctuates around - 50 this week [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. Spinning profits have improved significantly compared to the third quarter, with positive cash - flow profits in Xinjiang and even inland areas, which encourages mill operations and restocking [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a relatively low level in the past four years [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, there may be a restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, strengthening the expectation of improved liquidity [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillation. The short - term demand is average, and the supply is abundant, so the market may move within a range [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Key risks to monitor include domestic macro - policies, Sino - US trade policies, and downstream consumption [3]. Part Two: Cotton Fundamental Data - **Production**: The report presents historical data on national and Xinjiang cotton production from 2013 - 2025 [5][6]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on national and Xinjiang commercial inventories, national cotton bonded - area commercial inventories, national industrial inventories, and mid - stream inventories (showing seasonal destocking of finished products). Mid - stream factory loads show a slow recovery in operation rates, and mid - stream yarn mills are currently in a loss - making situation. It also provides data on domestic cotton and cotton yarn imports and US cotton's weekly signing and shipment volumes, with US cotton's exports to China showing sporadic signing and zero shipments [9][14][22][27][32][41]. Part Three: Cotton Capital - related Data - **Basis and Spread**: Zhengzhou Cotton's basis is oscillating at a high level, and the spreads between different contracts are presented. The US cotton's monthly spread shows a Deep Contango pattern [45][64]. - **Position**: Data on Zhengzhou Cotton's contract positions and the net long positions of managed funds in US cotton futures and options are provided [53][59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - New cotton cost increase supports cotton futures prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,575 yuan/ton with a 0.30% daily increase and 13,585 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% increase; CY2601 closed at 19,820 yuan/ton with a 0.30% daily increase and 19,850 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.15% increase; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 64.02 cents/pound with a 0.58% increase [1] - **Spot Data**: Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was at 14,712 yuan/ton, Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was at 14,560 yuan/ton, and the 3128B index was at 14,784 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread Data**: CF1 - 5 spread was - 25 yuan/ton with a 15 - yuan change from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton with no change [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was light, and spinning mills were less accepting of current cotton prices. Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton purchase prices were approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and hand - picked cotton prices were stable at around 7.1 yuan/kg [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market showed off - season characteristics. Orders, except for seasonal varieties, did not improve significantly, and yarn prices had difficulty rising. Enterprises adopted a "buy - on - dips" strategy [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to a sharp increase in crude oil prices [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded in the second half of this week. Currently, Xinjiang cotton is in the stage of concentrated supply. The cotton harvesting in northern Xinjiang is nearing completion, and a large number of cotton pickers are moving from north to south to southern Xinjiang for harvesting. The purchase price of seed cotton is relatively stable. The short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to fluctuate. Whether the cooling in the south will boost autumn and winter consumption and drive replenishment orders needs further observation. Macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations also need to be closely monitored [3][37]. - The cost of new - season lint cotton in northern Xinjiang is gradually solidified, with the mainstream theoretical cost ranging from 13,800 to 14,400 yuan/ton on a legal weight basis. There is certain hedging pressure above the short - term price of Zhengzhou cotton, and there is cost support below, so it is likely to remain volatile in the short term [3][37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 1.1 One - Week Data Overview - As of October 17, the CRB commodity price index closed at 293.35 points, up 0.59 points from October 10. The Wenhua Commodity Index on October 17 was 159.47, down 2.43 points or 1.5% from October 10. The ICE cotton futures main contract for December on October 17 was 64.29 cents/pound, up 0.52 cents/pound or 0.8% from October 10. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou cotton as of the week ending October 17 closed at 13,335 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from October 10, and the open interest increased by 31,000 lots to 586,000 lots [2][10][36]. - The prices of domestic and international cotton and related commodities showed different trends. For example, the price of gold increased, the price of crude oil decreased, and the prices of agricultural products in the plate increased [10]. - The prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased. For the US E/MOTM, the price decreased by 2.4 cents/pound, and for Brazil M, it decreased by 2.1 cents/pound [9]. 1.2 Domestic Market Conditions - **Textile Raw Material Trends**: On October 17, the prices of raw materials showed mixed trends compared to October 10. The price of viscose decreased by 76 yuan, while the prices of polyester staple fiber and CCI3128 remained unchanged, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract increased by 10 yuan [14][15]. - **Yarn Price Trends**: On October 17, the prices of domestic and imported yarns generally declined. The price of domestic yarns such as OE10S, C32S, and JC40S decreased, and the prices of imported yarns in RMB terms also decreased slightly. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns decreased [18][20][23]. - **Comparison of Domestic Cotton Futures and Spot Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - included)**: On October 17, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 14,757 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale tariff decreased compared to October 10. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM under the sliding - scale tariff increased [26]. 2. Second Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis 2.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2,653 lots (114,000 tons), with 183 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 121,000 tons, down from 127,000 tons on October 10 [30]. 2.2 Analysis of the Price Difference between Zhengzhou Cotton Futures and Spot - On October 17, the price difference between Zhengzhou cotton futures and the CCI3128B index was - 1,432 yuan/ton, an increase from - 1,329 yuan/ton on October 10 [33]. 2.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: The US government shutdown has lasted for some time, and the US economy is shifting from a contractionary monetary policy to a loose one. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October with a probability of 98%. In China, the consumer market in September was generally stable, with the CPI rising 0.1% month - on - month and falling 0.3% year - on - year [34]. - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, China's cotton imports were 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 680,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.8%. As of the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, at a historical low [35]. - **Downstream Market**: This week, the price of pure - cotton yarn was mainly stable. The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was weaker than last week, and the overall new orders were insufficient. The profit of yarn mills improved [35]. - **Technical Aspect**: The technical indicators of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract 01 turned stronger. The MACD green column turned red, the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ indicator was also about to form a golden cross [40]. 3. Third Part: International Market Analysis 3.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 2025/26 - season upland cotton was 19,527 tons, a decrease of 54% from the previous week. The shipment of upland cotton was 31,116 tons, an increase of 14% from the previous week. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly, and the shipment of Pima cotton also increased [43]. - As of September 23, the CFTC fund net long position was - 68,812, a decrease of 3,305 from the previous week [46]. 3.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On October 17, the ICE cotton futures main contract for December was 64.29 cents/pound, up 0.52 cents/pound or 0.8% from October 10. Technically, the KDJ indicator was about to form a golden cross and diverge upwards, and the technical indicators turned stronger [48]. 4. Fourth Part: Operation Suggestions - For upstream cotton enterprises, they can hedge on the futures market based on the cost of lint cotton calculated from the purchase price of seed cotton, or consider buying put options to hedge risks. - For downstream textile enterprises, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the purchase cost of lint cotton when the raw material price drops [50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the cotton market has both bullish and bearish factors. The market is expected to show short - term rebound trends, and the main 01 contract should focus on the pressure around 13,500, with an intraday volatile and bullish mindset [4]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The national cotton output is expected to be 7.28 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different reports have varying data on 2025/2026 production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report shows a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA September report has production at 25.622 million tons, consumption at 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory at 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/2026 forecast has production at 6.36 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons, consumption at 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.22 million tons. The overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,679, with a basis of 1,344 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/2026 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The market shows a short - term rebound trend. The main 01 contract should focus on the pressure around 13,500, with an intraday volatile and bullish mindset [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global production in 2025/2026 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 230,000 - ton increase from the previous forecast; total consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; and ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a 168,000 - ton decrease [8][10]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2025/2026 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, a 40,000 - ton (1.6%) increase; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a 26,000 - ton (1.6%) increase; and global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a 36,000 - ton (3.9%) increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In 2025/2026, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton generally showed a volatile rebound trend. After continuous declines in the early stage, a technical rebound occurred. The overall market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous negative news has been gradually digested. The main contract 01 should pay attention to the pressure around 13,500, and the intraday trading idea is to be bullish on the volatility [4][5]. - Positive factors include the reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high tariffs on exports to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton was in a volatile rebound trend. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.28 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to the ICAC September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both 25.5 million tons; according to the USDA September report, the output is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October report for the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous negative news has been gradually digested. The main contract 01 should pay attention to the pressure around 13,500, and the intraday trading idea is to be bullish on the volatility [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus Not explicitly stated in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: The USDA's September global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.622 million tons, and consumption is 25.872 million tons. The ICAC's 2025/26 season global output is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 season data shows output of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.22 million tons [4][11][13][15]. - **Price and Trade Data**: In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.5 Position Data Not explicitly stated in the provided content.