Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's July cotton supply and demand report is bearish, and good weather and improved crop ratings are suppressing the upside potential of US cotton in the short term. There are risks from macro factors such as US tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea and potential new 10% tariffs on BRICS countries. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in overall operating rates, and more cautious raw material procurement. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream is dragging on the price rhythm, so the overall trend is oscillating slightly stronger. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,050 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 14,759 lots, up 2,947 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 109 lots, up 4 lots. The main contract positions of cotton are 546,688 lots, down 11,044 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 21,168 lots, down 1,042 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 9,716 sheets, down 91 sheets; for cotton yarn, it is 98 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,109 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,902 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,218 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 85 tons, up 2.4 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton is 4 tons, down 2 tons; for cotton yarn, it is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. The profit from imported cotton is 971 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan. The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 tons, down 69.39 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 195.1 tons, down 3.6 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 million US dollars, up 197,117.9 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 million US dollars, up 5,210.9 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 15.96%, up 7.71%; for put options, it is 16.02%, up 7.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.01%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.35%, down 0.23% [2] Industry News - As of the week of July 13, 2025, the US cotton boll - setting rate is 23%, up from 14% the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% the previous week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% the previous week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton market lacks obvious driving factors, and the futures price is oscillating [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2509 was 13,875 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.07%, and the night - session closing price was 13,805 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. The closing price of CY2509 was 20,120 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.50%. The price of ICE Cotton No.12 was 68.11 cents/pound with a daily increase of 1.02% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2509 was 201,823 lots, a decrease of 64,689 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 854,946 lots, a decrease of 9,135 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 5,384 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 22,210 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,807, a decrease of 43, and the valid forecast was 216, a decrease of 18. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 98, an increase of 7, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 84 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The price in Shandong was 15,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan; the price in Hebei was 15,341 yuan/ton, an increase of 71 yuan. The 3128B index was 15,295 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan. The international cotton index M was 74.99 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.39%. The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan, and the arrival price was 22,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading has changed little. Spinning mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and the overall basis is stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton have different basis quotes [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure cotton yarn market remains dull, and the turnover has changed little. Spinning mills continue to reduce their production capacity. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains weak, and the actual transaction price remains the same. Weaving mills maintain on - demand and low - price purchases [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, mainly due to bargain - hunting and technical support. As of July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton rose to 54%, compared with 52% the previous week and 45% in the same period last year [3]. **Trend Intensity** The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15163 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 49 元/吨。2024/25 北疆机采 4129 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price lacks effective drivers and remains in a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and the night - session price was 13,775 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,045 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and the night - session price was 20,050 yuan/ton; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.96 cents/pound with a - 0.12% decrease. The trading volume of CF2509 was 256,050 lots, a decrease of 200,500 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 854,338 lots, a decrease of 9,073 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,335 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,023 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,211, a decrease of 62 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 301 with no change; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, with no change, and the effective forecast was 6, a decrease of 1 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,204 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,212 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan or 0.38% from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 75.58 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.25 cents or - 1.63% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton with no change; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,912 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of cotton has changed little, mostly for the rigid - demand procurement of textile enterprises, and the overall basis has remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the overall offers are few, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the basis of 2024/25 Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF09 + 1000 and above, for self - pick - up in the inland; the 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was traded at CF09 + 950 - 1050, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The market of pure - cotton yarn has shown little change recently, and the yarn prices have remained stable. The cash - flow losses of inland textile enterprises exceed 500 yuan/ton, the downstream demand is sluggish, and textile enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains cold. Currently, manufacturers are mostly looking forward to the start of autumn orders in July. The domestic sales are light, with few inquiries. Some weaving factories reported that they have been on business trips to visit customers recently but have received few orders. Individual weaving factories reported that they have no orders and face great operating pressure in July, considering further production cuts [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fell slightly yesterday. The higher - than - expected US cotton planting area and the increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton put pressure on ICE cotton, but external factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and the rise in crude oil prices provided support for ICE cotton [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Optimistic sentiment drives the cotton futures price to fluctuate and rise [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 had a closing price of 13,845 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.62% and a daily increase of 0.29%. Its trading volume was 250,977 lots (down 833 from the previous day), and the open interest was 875,506 lots (up 11,714) [1]. - CY2509 had a closing price of 20,170 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32% and a daily increase of 0.22%. Its trading volume was 7,428 lots (down 1,999), and the open interest was 21,860 lots (up 1,045) [1]. - ICE Cotton No.12 had a price of 69.32 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.81% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 10,302 sheets (down 32), and the effective forecast was 295 sheets (unchanged) [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 2 sheets (unchanged), and the effective forecast was 3 sheets (down 1) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 15,010 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) from the previous day [1]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) [1]. - Cotton in Shandong was priced at 15,115 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan (0.61%) [1]. - Cotton in Hebei was priced at 15,018 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan (0.72%) [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,109 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan (0.59%) [1]. - The international cotton index M was 76.27 cents/pound, up 1 cent (0.71%) [1]. - Pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was priced at 20,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,933 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.04%) [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Spot trading was mostly sluggish, with a strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Partial basis - locked transactions occurred, and the overall basis remained stable. The sales basis for 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5) was CF09 + 1300 - 1600, with some low - price supplies at 1250 - 1300 and corps supplies at 1650 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up. The freight for cotton leaving Xinjiang by truck changed little [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn stopped falling and rebounded, with little change in the mainstream price. Some manufacturers raised their quotes, but the acceptance was average. The pure - cotton fabric market remained sluggish, with few recent orders and slow shipment. The performance of home textile grey fabrics was also worse than before, and many weaving factories in Nantong had no new orders and continued to reduce production [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, benefiting from the overall optimistic market sentiment. The market was waiting for the USDA's area outlook and quarterly inventory report early on Monday [1][2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are considered neutral, with various factors such as production, consumption, and inventory showing a mixed picture. The basis is bullish as the spot price has a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is bearish according to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's forecast. The market trend shows a bullish signal on the disk, but the main position is bearish. Overall, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high, and the market sentiment has turned optimistic. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is around 13,800 - 14,000 [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US tariffs and the upcoming 90 - day foreign trade export rush period, as well as the futures price approaching historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: USDA's June report shows that for the 25/26 cotton season, the global production is 2547.2 million tons, consumption is 2563.8 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1672.1 million tons. ICAC's June report indicates that in the 25/26 season, the global production is 2600 million tons and consumption is 2570 million tons. In May, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.21 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. China imported 40,000 tons of cotton in May, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and 100,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67%. The Ministry of Agriculture's June forecast for the 25/26 season in China is a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 823 million tons [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,020 yuan, and the basis for the 09 contract is 1300 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's June forecast for the 25/26 season shows an ending inventory of 823 million tons [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is bearish, with a net short position decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: US cotton has a slight rebound, and domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high. The financial market has generally turned optimistic, and the Sino - US trade dispute has been temporarily put on hold. The center of Zhengzhou cotton is slowly rising, and the upper pressure level for the 09 contract is around 13,800 - 14,000 [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: It shows the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory of cotton in different countries and regions from 2021/22 to 2025/26, with detailed data and month - on - month changes [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the global cotton production, consumption, and ending inventory from 2017 to 2024 [14]. - **China's Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 2024/25 to 2025/26 seasons includes data on beginning inventory, sown area, yield, production, import, consumption, and ending inventory [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The USDA June report shows that for the 2025/26 cotton season, the global production is 2547.2 million tons, consumption is 2563.8 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1672.1 million tons. The ICAC June report indicates that for the same period, the production is 2600 million tons and consumption is 2570 million tons. The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2025/26 production at 625 million tons, imports at 140 million tons, consumption at 740 million tons, and ending inventory at 823 million tons [5]. - The basis shows that the national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,883 yuan, with a basis of 1273 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's estimated ending inventory for the 2025/26 season is 823 million tons, which is a bearish factor [5]. - The 20 - day moving average of the cotton futures price is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, suggesting a bullish trend [5]. - The main positions in the futures market are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [5]. - The US cotton has a slight rebound, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent rebound high. Considering that the textile industry has entered the off - season, the upward momentum of the 09 main contract will not be strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance around 13,600 - 13,700 yuan, and a short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a 90 - day foreign trade export order - grabbing period in the future, as well as the futures price approaching historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, and an increase in inventory [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamental analysis shows a neutral situation overall, with mixed signals from production, consumption, and inventory data from different sources. The basis is bullish, inventory is bearish, the price trend on the disk is bullish, and the main positions are bearish. A short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered for the 09 main contract due to the off - season in the textile industry [5]. - Bullish factors are the reduction of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the futures price near historical lows. Bearish factors are the consumption off - season, a decline in foreign trade orders, and increased inventory [6]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Data**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is 2547.2 million tons (a decrease of 17.8 million tons compared to the previous forecast), consumption is 2563.8 million tons (a decrease of 7 million tons), and the total import is 975.8 million tons (a decrease of 0.1 million tons), and the total export is 975.1 million tons [11][12]. - **ICAC Data**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production is 2600 million tons, and consumption is 2570 million tons [5]. - **Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Data**: For the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and the ending inventory is 823 million tons [5][16]. - **Customs Data**: In May, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 100,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. 5. Position Data - The main positions in the cotton futures market are bearish, with net short positions increasing, indicating a bearish trend for the main players [5].

Industry - The industry being reported on is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was dated June 20, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is weak, with spinning mills selling at discounted prices, and downstream orders are difficult to improve. The cotton fabric market is also sluggish, with large fabric mills having less-than-expected orders and accumulating inventory [7] - The Fed has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, causing a sharp decline in overnight ICE cotton futures. The US cotton planting progress is 85% (compared to 89% last year), and the good-to-excellent rate is 48% (compared to 54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply and demand report increased US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending inventory to 960,000 tons. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or slightly increase. There is a risk of high-temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. In May, yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year, and cloth production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. The downstream industry is currently weak, with finished product inventory gradually accumulating and the operating rate decreasing again. In the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating in a narrow range. Pay attention to macro changes [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is weak, with spinning mills selling at discounted prices, and downstream orders are difficult to improve. The cotton fabric market is also sluggish, with large fabric mills having less-than-expected orders and accumulating inventory. It is expected that autumn orders will start later than usual [7] - **Macro and Market Analysis**: The Fed has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, causing a sharp decline in overnight ICE cotton futures. The US cotton planting progress is 85% (compared to 89% last year), and the good-to-excellent rate is 48% (compared to 54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply and demand report increased US cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending inventory to 960,000 tons. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or slightly increase. There is a risk of high-temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. In May, yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year, and cloth production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. The downstream industry is currently weak, with finished product inventory gradually accumulating and the operating rate decreasing again. In the short term, the fundamental driving force is limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating in a narrow range. Pay attention to macro changes [8] 2. Industry News - In May, China's yarn production was 1.951 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; cloth production was 2.67 billion meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; and chemical fiber production was 7.349 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. From January to May, cumulative yarn production was 9.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; cumulative cloth production was 12.63 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; and cumulative chemical fiber production was 35.037 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton present a neutral situation. The 25/26 annual output, consumption, and inventory data from different organizations show a balanced supply - demand relationship. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) 6 - month report indicates a production of 2547.2 million tons, consumption of 2563.8 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1672.1 million tons. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) 6 - month report shows a production of 2600 million tons and consumption of 2570 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture in May for the 25/26 year estimates a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 853 million tons [5]. - In terms of basis, the spot 3128b national average price is 14,891, with a basis of 1366 (09 contract), showing a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [5]. - Regarding inventory, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's May 25/26 annual forecast of ending inventory of 853 million tons is a bearish factor [5]. - On the disk, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - In terms of expectations, the Sino - US negotiations have not brought specific benefits to the textile industry. The textile industry has entered the off - season of consumption. The 09 main contract faces significant resistance around 13,600, and it is expected to consolidate horizontally in the short - term within the range of 13,400 - 13,600 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple reports from different institutions show the supply - demand situation of cotton in the 25/26 year. Customs data shows that in May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 10 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. - **Basis**: The spot 3128b national average price is 14,891, with a basis of 1366 (09 contract), indicating a premium to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's May 25/26 annual forecast of ending inventory is 853 million tons [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing [5]. - **Expectations**: Sino - US negotiations have no specific benefits for the textile industry. The textile industry is in the off - season, and the 09 main contract will consolidate horizontally in the short - term within the 13,400 - 13,600 range [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Production and Consumption Data**: The USDA's 6 - month report on global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 year shows detailed data for different countries and regions. The total production is 2547.2 million tons, and the total consumption is 2563.8 million tons. The ICAC's 6 - month report shows a production of 2600 million tons and consumption of 2570 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's May 25/26 year data for China shows a production of 625 million tons, imports of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and an ending inventory of 853 million tons [5][10]. - **Import and Export Data**: In May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In May, China imported 4 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 86.3%, and imported 10 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67% [5]. 5. Position Data The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (4129/29B/impurity within 3.5) are mostly at CF09 + 1300 - 1400 and above, and for Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 31 - grade double 29 cotton, the basis is mostly at CF09 + 900 and above, with some low - basis at 800 - 900, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market is slightly better but still dull, and the yarn price is difficult to rise and remains stable. The profit of spinning enterprises has deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market is sluggish, and the price remains stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al - Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories have gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate is low [7]. - In the international market, the U.S. cotton planting progress is 85% (89% last year), and the good - to - excellent rate is 48% (54% last year). The June USDA monthly supply - demand report increased the U.S. cotton exports in the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons and reduced the ending stocks to 960,000 tons. The U.S. cotton fundamentals are good, and the ICE cotton futures are strongly supported. In the domestic market, with the stable - to - increasing planting area, the new cotton output is expected to be stable or increase. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in the budding and flowering stage in most parts of Xinjiang this week. The downstream industry is currently in a weak state, with finished product inventories gradually accumulating, and the decline in the operating rate is not obvious. In the short term, the fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8]. Operation Suggestions - Short - term fundamental drivers are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range fluctuating adjustment. Attention should be paid to macro - changes [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 15, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 85% (89% last year, 90% five - year average, 76% the previous week), the budding rate was 19% (21% last year, 17% five - year average, 12% the previous week), the boll - opening rate was 3% (0% the previous week, 5% last year, 3% five - year average), and the good - to - excellent rate was 48% (54% last year). - As of June 14, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 2.8% (1.4% last week, 3.1% last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][19][25][28]