Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian canola in China has led to the leading increase in the canola sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Niño weather [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2]. Daily Views - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 22, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has switched from long to short, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [3]. Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,026, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas is gradually being digested. Although there may be a callback window in September, going long on palm oil at low levels will be the main theme in the second half of the year. The price increase in the future depends on domestic macro - sentiment, the support of US soybean oil at 50 - 52 cents/lb, and India's finding additional import cost - effectiveness of palm oil [1][2]. - For soybean oil, before the fourth quarter, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 57 cents. There is a chance to go long on soybean oil after palm oil completes its bottom - seeking in September and the soybean import gap persists due to Sino - US trade issues. The soybean - palm oil spread will show a weak, range - bound performance when palm oil is not in a callback period [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Palm Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: The fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient, and the market was gradually digesting the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. The 01 contract of palm oil fell 1.69% last week [1]. - **This Week's Fundamentals**: - **Supply Side**: In Malaysia, the rainfall in September may cause the monthly output to remain flat or decline, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons, and August might be the peak of this year's output. In Indonesia, the refining profit and the Indonesia - Malaysia price spread increased this week. The inventory build - up in Malaysia from July to September slowed down significantly, and it is unlikely to exceed 2.3 million tons. Starting from September, Indonesia's inventory will reach the bottom, and the combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will build up until October and then start to decline rapidly [2]. - **Demand Side**: In the European market, the demand for palm oil remains strong. In the Indian market, the import profits of crude soybean oil and crude sunflower oil are better than that of CPO, which will suppress India's palm oil imports to some extent. China's demand is the second target for the producing areas, but it is difficult for the soybean - palm oil spread to return above the par level to stimulate China's demand [2]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: The market's trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter slowed down. The soybean oil market was in a high - level consolidation, and the upward momentum was insufficient. The 01 contract of soybean oil fell 0.93% last week [1]. - **This Week's Fundamentals**: - **US Market**: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. Before the fourth quarter, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 57 cents. If the policies on import raw material subsidies are finalized, the policy negatives of US soybean oil will be exhausted, which will help reduce inventory [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The trend of the domestic soybean oil market depends on the smoothness of US soybean procurement. If the Sino - US trade negotiation fails to remove the obstacles for Chinese enterprises to purchase US soybeans, the upward trend of the domestic soybean oil market after the National Day is expected to be more obvious [5]. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and their changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are provided. The price spreads and changes of some varieties are also given [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Charts show the estimated production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in September, the inventory level of Indonesian palm oil, the price spread between Indonesia and Malaysia, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra, Indonesia's refining profit, Malaysia's palm oil export volume, the POGO price spread, rainfall in Malaysia and Indonesia, India's palm oil import profit, the basis of palm oil and soybean oil, and the cumulative import volume of palm oil and four major oils in the EU [10][11][13][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The release of MPOB data has put pressure on Malaysian palm oil prices. The overall report is bearish as palm oil exports are lower than expected and inventory continues to increase. Additionally, recent actions by US senators against transferring small refinery blending obligations to large refineries may suppress biodiesel consumption, further pressuring overall oil prices [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,244 yuan/ton, a decrease of 242 yuan or 2.55% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 152 yuan or 1.81% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan or 0.82% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan or 1.38%. The spot basis was P01 + 26 yuan, an increase of 112 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.59%. The spot basis was Y01 + 204 yuan, an increase of 102 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.80%. The spot basis was OI01 + 200 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan [1] Malaysian Palm Oil Data - In August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,202,534 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.18% [2] - Palm oil production was 1,855,008 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.35% [2] - Palm oil exports were 1,324,672 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29% [2] - Palm oil imports were 49,036 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.66% [2] - From September 1 - 10, ITS data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports were 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease from the same period last month [2] - AmSpec data showed that exports were 415,030 tons, an 8.43% decrease from the same period last month [2] Other Market Information - Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat production from 86.1 million tons to 87.2 million tons. The total production of grains and beans is now expected to be 134.9 million tons, up from 130.5 million tons [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) decreased by 18 dollars/ton to 1,146 dollars/ton, and the December shipment price decreased by 26 dollars/ton to 1,142 dollars/ton [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged at 1,070 dollars/ton and 1,050 dollars/ton respectively [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 464 dollars/ton, the US West soybeans decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 444 dollars/ton, and Brazilian soybeans decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 487 dollars/ton [2] - The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (October shipment) remained unchanged at 235 cents/bushel, the US West Coast remained unchanged at 178 cents/bushel, and the Brazilian port decreased by 1 cent/bushel to 297 cents/bushel [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil market has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the origin, but the export data is good, consumption is strong, and there are also the impacts of biodiesel policies. The U.S. soybean harvest is about to start, with high expected yields and a relatively loose global soybean supply, but the situation of China - U.S. trade negotiations needs attention. Rapeseed still has a high - yield expectation. Overall, the oil market is a mix of long and short factors, and further drivers are needed to guide prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9390.00 yuan/ton, a change of +22 yuan or +0.23% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9739.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.86%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 10.00, a change of +58.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton or +0.35%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 154.00, a change of +40.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.20%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 161.00, a change of +8.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - The C&F prices of U.S. Gulf, U.S. West, and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes for different regions (October shipment) remained unchanged. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseeds (November and January shipments) decreased by 10 dollars/ton and 1 dollar/ton respectively [2] - According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in August was 1.85 million tons [2] - This week, the international and domestic palm oil prices fluctuated downward, with the domestic decline greater than the international one. The price inversion of China's palm oil imports widened. The import CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil for October and November shipments decreased by 7 dollars/ton and 9 dollars/ton respectively, and the South China arrival duty - paid costs decreased by 70 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Nino weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. It is rated as neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,428, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. It is rated as bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract has increased. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,550 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil is expected to increase in the future. It is rated as neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 10, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main palm oil contract has turned to short. It is rated as bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil is expected to increase in the future. It is rated as neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,858, with a basis of 119, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract has increased. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For soybean oil, short - term inventory is at a high level with abundant supply, but there are concerns about the long - term soybean supply, and strong cost support means it lacks room to decline. Domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal supply is expected to decrease significantly due to domestic tariff policies. Current inventory and ship purchases ensure sufficient supply before the end of the year, and the long - term situation depends on policies. The market is lackluster due to slow destocking and continuous ship - purchase news. The biggest variable in the oil and fat sector is palm oil. Production in the producing areas may still increase in the third quarter, but active exports support the bottom, and there is still restocking demand in countries like India and China. It is recommended to buy the three major oils at low prices and go long [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For P2509, the previous settlement price was 9408, the opening price was 9372, the highest price was 9402, the lowest price was 9346, the closing price was 9346, down 62 or - 0.66%, with a trading volume of 656 and an open interest of 650 [7]. - For P2601, the previous settlement price was 9442, the opening price was 9420, the highest price was 9498, the lowest price was 9344, the closing price was 9368, down 74 or - 0.78%, with a trading volume of 739051 and an open interest of 444058, a decrease of 5497 [7]. - For Y2509, the previous settlement price was 8410, the opening price was 8454, the highest price was 8460, the lowest price was 8454, the closing price was 8454, up 44 or 0.52%, with a trading volume of 28 and an open interest of 3191, a decrease of 276 [7]. - For Y2601, the previous settlement price was 8364, the opening price was 8350, the highest price was 8418, the lowest price was 8328, the closing price was 8366, up 1 or 0.02%, with a trading volume of 304466 and an open interest of 622425, a decrease of 5540 [7]. - For 60910, the previous settlement price was 9949, the opening price was 9950, the highest price was 9950, the lowest price was 9900, the closing price was 9900, down 49 or - 0.49%, with a trading volume not fully shown and an open interest of 5126, a decrease of 93 [7]. - For OI601, the previous settlement price was 9775, the opening price was 9770, the highest price was 9814, the lowest price was 9710, the closing price was 9727, down 49 or - 0.49%, with a trading volume of 239057 and an open interest of 256402, a decrease of 1856 [7]. - **Base Price Quotes**: - Guangxi rapeseed oil traders' base price quotes: September: OI2601 + 40 (Guangxi), October: OI2601 + 80 (Guangxi). East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: August - September: OI2601+120, October - November: OI2601 + 170; East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: August - September: OI2601 + 130. East China's soybean oil base price: First - grade soybean oil: September: Y2601 + 220; October - January: Y2601 + 280. Dongguan's 24 - degree palm oil: 01 - 60 for various factories, 01 + 20 for national standard 24 - degree, 01 - 20 for Dongguan Chunjin 24 - degree, 01 - 300 for 52 - degree in various factories, 01 - 60 for 33 - degree in various factories [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy the three major oils at low prices and go long [8] 3.2 Industry News - Shipping surveyor SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in August were 1170043 tons, a 30.5% increase from 896362 tons in July. Exports to China were 89500 tons, an increase of 14300 tons from 75200 tons in the previous month [9]. - Shipping surveyor ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in August were 1421486 tons, a 10.2% increase from 1289727 tons in July. Exports to China were 107500 tons, an increase of 19200 tons from 88300 tons in the previous month [9]. - Independent inspection agency AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in August were 1341990 tons, a 15.4% increase from 1163216 tons in July [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and price spreads of palm oil contracts. It also includes charts on the US dollar - RMB exchange rate and the US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][17][19][21][26]

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 9 月 3 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 合药 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 : | 收盘价 | :流歧: | 张跌幅 | 成交重 | 特企量 | 持仓堂变化 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Information - The report is the "Grease Morning Report" dated September 2, 2025, from the Investment Consulting Department, with analyst Wang Mingwei [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 2024/2025 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,420, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,550 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,404, with a basis of 20, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,910, with a basis of 109, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: On August 22, it was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [21] - **Total Domestic Oil Inventory**: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [23] Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [13] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Not detailed in the text, only mentioned [15]

General Information - Report Date: September 2, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Futures Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P2509 | 9310 | 9300 | 9378 | 9182 | 9330 | 20 | 0.21% | 255 | 2140 | -146 | | P2601 | 9348 | 9300 | 9392 | 9240 | 9384 | 36 | 0.39% | 669906 | 462237 | -16489 | | Y2509 | 8414 | 8414 | 8516 | 8350 | 8390 | -24 | -0.29% | 1039 | 3867 | -1702 | | Y2601 | 8358 | 8360 | 8360 | 8296 | 8348 | -10 | -0.12% | 285870 | 641642 | -8247 | | 609GO | 9968 | 9968 | 10030 | 9925 | 9930 | -38 | -0.38% | 644 | 2288 | -386 | | OI601 | 9782 | 9779 | 9848 | 9710 | 9801 | 19 | 0.19% | 285036 | 263549 | -52 | [7] Basis Quotes - Guangxi rapeseed oil traders' basis quotes: September: OI2601 + 40 (Guangxi), October: OI2601 + 80 (Guangxi) - East China refined tertiary rapeseed oil: August - September: OI2601 + 120, October - November: OI2601 + 170 - East China refined primary rapeseed oil: August - September: OI2601 + 130 - East China soybean oil basis price: First-grade soybean oil: September: Y2601 + 220; October - January: Y2601 + 280 - Dongguan 24-degree palm oil: Various factories' quotes range from 01 - 60 to 01 + 20 [7] Oil and Fats Analysis - Soybean oil: Short-term high inventory and abundant supply, but market concerns about long-term soybean supply and strong cost support limit its downside - Rapeseed oil: Domestic supply of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly due to tariff policies. Supply is sufficient by the end of the year, and the long-term situation depends on policies. Strong cost support makes the price likely to rise - Palm oil: The biggest variable in the oil and fats sector. Production in the producing regions may still increase in the third quarter, and export data is rising. The current futures price is unlikely to fall deeply, but the upside is also limited - Operation Suggestion: Roll long on single oil and fats contracts, and conduct a long rapeseed oil - short soybean oil arbitrage [8] 2. Industry News Indonesia - Despite increased production, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month-on-month to 2.53 million tons due to rising exports - In June, Indonesia exported 3.61 million tons of palm oil, a month-on-month increase of 35.4% - June's crude palm oil production increased by 15.8% month-on-month to 4.82 million tons - In the first half of the year, palm oil production, including palm kernel oil, reached 27.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [9] Malaysia - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 1.21% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 3.26% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [10] 3. Data Overview Palm Oil Export - From August 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 933,437 tons, a 36.4% increase compared to the same period in July - Exports to China were 81,000 tons, higher than 58,000 tons in the same period last month [18] Domestic Palm Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 35th week of 2025, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 558,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the previous week - The contract volume was 33,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, affecting the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8428, with a basis of 70, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8150 - 8550 [2] Daily Viewpoints - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9532, with a basis of 216, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Daily Viewpoints - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9900, with a basis of 91, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9550 - 9950 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macro economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]