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内盘油脂减仓下行,延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 01:36
油脂日报 | 2025-05-16 内盘油脂减仓下行,延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8048.00元/吨,环比变化-136元,幅度-1.66%;昨日收盘豆油2509合约7796.00 元/吨,环比变化-118.00元,幅度-1.49%;昨日收盘菜油2509合约9296.00元/吨,环比变化-142.00元,幅度-1.50%。 现货方面,广东地区棕榈油现货价8580.00元/吨,环比变化-110.00元,幅度-1.27%,现货基差P09+532.00,环比变 化+26.00元;天津地区一级豆油现货价格8150.00元/吨,环比变化-90.00元/吨,幅度-1.09%,现货基差Y09+354.00, 环比变化+28.00元;江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9480.00元/吨,环比变化-110.00元,幅度-1.15%,现货基差 OI09+184.00,环比变化+32.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总:马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示,马来西亚5月1-15日的棕榈油出口量为514713吨,上月同 期为450657吨,环比增加14.21%。船运调查机构ITS数据显示,马来西亚5月1-15日 ...
银河期货油脂日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 14:38
第一部分 数据分析 银河期货油脂日报 2025/5/13 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 油脂日报 1 / 5 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: F3013727 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差(分别为:一豆、24度、三菜) | | | | | 豆油 | 7792 | (22) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8172 | | | | 8142 | 8092 | | 350 | -10 | 380 | -20 | 300 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 7954 | (70) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8554 | ...
油脂:马棕油库存超预期,油脂高开低走
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 10:05
表 1:油脂期货日度数据监测 油脂:马棕油库存超预期 油脂高开低走 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号:F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0018581 | | | 油 | 脂 每 | 日 | 数 据 | 追 | 踪 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 5月13日 | 元/吨 | 7792.00 | 7814.00 | -22.00 | -0.28% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 5月13日 | 元/吨 | 7954.00 | 8024.00 | -70.00 | -0.87% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 5月13日 | 元/吨 | 9374.00 | 9378.00 | -4.00 | -0.04% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 5月12日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1070.00 | 1052.25 | 17.75 | 1.69% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 5月12日 | 美分 ...
USDA发布月度报告,油脂震荡运行-20250513
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 03:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA released its May report, with no adjustment to South American production and the US soybean yield maintained at 52.5 bushels per acre as in the February Outlook Forum, resulting in no significant change in the supply pattern [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,024.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 138 yuan or 1.75% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,814.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 34.00 yuan or 0.44% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,378.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 23.00 yuan or 0.25% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of P09 + 506.00, a环比 decrease of 128.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,110.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.37%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 296.00, a环比 decrease of 64.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,530.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.21%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 152.00, a环比 decrease of 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from May 1 - 10 were 215,228 tons, a 1.9% increase from the 211,252 tons exported in the same period last month [2] US Soybean and Corn Information - In May, the expected US soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is 4.34 billion bushels, with a market expectation of 4.338 billion bushels; the expected ending stocks are 295 million bushels, with a market expectation of 362 million bushels; the expected yield is 52.5 bushels per acre, in line with market expectations [2] - As of the week ending May 11, the US soybean planting rate was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, compared to 30% the previous week, 34% last year, and a five - year average of 37% [2] - The US corn planting rate was 62%, higher than the market expectation of 60%, compared to 40% the previous week, 47% last year, and a five - year average of 56% [2] Global Soybean Supply and Demand - Global soybean exports in the 2025/26 season are expected to increase by 4% to 188.4 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season [2] - Exports from major South American soybean - producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) are expected to increase by 8.5 million tons, offsetting the decline in US exports [2] - Argentina's soybean imports are expected to increase due to increased supply from neighboring countries, and import demand in countries such as China, Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, and Algeria has also risen [2] - China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to be 112 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the revised 2024/25 season expectation [2] - Global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.2 million tons to 124.3 million tons, mainly due to increased stocks in Brazil and Argentina, partially offset by the decline in US stocks [2] South American Soybean Production Forecast - The USDA maintained its forecast for Argentina's 2024/2025 soybean production at 49 million tons, while the market expected 49.25 million tons [2] - The USDA maintained its forecast for Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production at 169 million tons, while the market expected 169.17 million tons [2]
棕榈油:压力阶段性释放,下方或有支撑,豆油:关税预期缓和,宏观影响显现
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 02:02
2025 年 5 月 13 日 棕榈油:压力阶段性释放,下方或有支撑 豆油:关税预期缓和,宏观影响显现 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘) | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 (夜盘) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,886 | -0.28% | 8,022 | 1.72% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,780 | 0.26% | 7,848 | 0.87% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,355 | -0.18% | 9,377 | 0.24% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | / | / | / | / | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.83 | 2.59% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 639,471 | -46,487 | 415,413 | -13,408 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 370,50 ...
棕榈油:压力阶段性释放,下方或有支撑,豆油:震荡寻底,品种间保持偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 02:56
2025 年 5 月 12 日 棕榈油:压力阶段性释放,下方或有支撑 豆油:震荡寻底,品种间保持偏强 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘) 7,886 | 涨跌幅 -0.28% | 收盘价 (夜盘) 7,940 | 涨跌幅 0.68% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,780 | 0.26% | 7,780 | 0.00% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,355 | -0.18% | 9,407 | 0.56% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,815 | 0.37% | | | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 48.64 | 0.39% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 639,471 | -46,487 | 415,413 | -13,408 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 370,509 | 27,712 | ...
棕榈油:产地兑现卖压,风险未完全释放,豆油:单边驱动不足,品种间偏强运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 07:44
二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 棕榈油:产地兑现卖压,风险未完全释放 豆油:单边驱动不足,品种间偏强运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读: 上周观点及逻辑: 棕榈油:产地卖压持续兑现,跟随原油小幅反弹,棕榈油 09 合约周跌幅 3.22%。 豆油:跟随油脂板块和国际油价波动为主,国内现货开机仍未完全放松,豆棕价差持续上涨,豆油 09 合约周跌 0.66%。 本周观点及逻辑: 豆油:国际豆油方面,资金继续以"美国优先"和扶持美豆的逻辑推高美盘油粕比交易,共和党众议 院提出 BTC 延期法案,多美豆油空 BMD 的逻辑持续成立。美豆油当下最大的利多不在于 RVO 公布数字高 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 低,而在于即将公布前夕的风险溢价,并可能以此为由进行多轮炒作。国际油脂供应上暂时关注南美豆油 新作上市何时体现报价压力,国际豆棕价差持续高位、阿根廷豆油进入集中上市季节而当前排船较少,如 果 5-6 月难以保持 50 万吨以上的出口那么国际豆油将面临一定的卖压,进一步拖 ...
油脂日报:美豆油价格走强,国内油脂震荡-20250509
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 05:55
油脂日报 | 2025-05-09 昨日三大油脂价格震荡,外盘棕榈油、豆油价格走强,对内盘形成一定支撑,但整体基本面依然利多支撑不足, 价格难有大幅起色。 策略 谨慎看空 风险 政策变化 美豆油价格走强,国内油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7908.00元/吨,环比变化-6元,幅度-0.08%;昨日收盘豆油2509合约7760.00元 /吨,环比变化-26.00元,幅度-0.33%;昨日收盘菜油2509合约9372.00元/吨,环比变化+37.00元,幅度+0.40%。现 货方面,广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨,环比变化-40.00元,幅度-0.47%,现货基差P09+582.00,环比变化-34.00 元;天津地区一级豆油现货价格8110.00元/吨,环比变化-10.00元/吨,幅度-0.12%,现货基差Y09+350.00,环比变 化+16.00元;江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9520.00元/吨,环比变化+30.00元,幅度+0.32%,现货基差OI09+148.00, 环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总:USDA最新干旱报告显示,截至5月6日当周,约15% ...
棕榈油:国际油价反弹,短时提供支撑,豆油:品种间保持偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 01:55
2025 年 5 月 9 日 棕榈油:国际油价反弹,短时提供支撑 豆油:品种间保持偏强 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘) | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 (夜盘) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,908 7,760 | -0.08% -0.33% | 7,952 7,832 | 0.56% 0.93% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,372 | 0.40% | 9,382 | 0.11% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,801 | 1.99% | 3,835 | 0.89% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 48.40 | 2.26% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 685,958 | -62,759 | 428,821 | 2,700 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 342,797 | -13,58 ...
建信期货油脂日报-20250508
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 23:51
Group 1: Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 7984, opening price 7946, highest price 7974, lowest price 7884, closing price 7914, down 70 (-0.88%), trading volume 748717, open interest 426121, open interest change 58556 [7] - P2505: Previous settlement price 8392, opening price 8300, highest price 8310, lowest price 8204, closing price 8204, down 188 (-2.24%), trading volume 128, open interest 340, open interest change -108 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 7752, opening price 7728, highest price 7814, lowest price 7726, closing price 7786, up 34 (0.44%), trading volume 356383, open interest 602826, open interest change 18909 [7] - Y2505: Previous settlement price 7884, opening price 8140, highest price 8140, lowest price 7620, closing price 7900, up 16 (0.20%), trading volume 34, open interest 1198 [7] - O1509: Previous settlement price 9242, opening price 9186, highest price 9362, lowest price 9180, closing price 9335, up 93 (1.01%), trading volume 435548, open interest 302424, open interest change 21448 [7] - O1505: Previous settlement price 9208, opening price 9195, highest price 9330, lowest price 9193, closing price 9310, up 102 (1.11%), trading volume 135, open interest 1326, open interest change -132 [7] - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First-grade soybean oil, spot 09+400, June - September 09+300; Third-grade rapeseed oil 09+150 [7] - May East China; Guangxi rapeseed oil traders' basis quotes: Third-grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09+0; East China 24-degree palm oil, May 20 - June 15 delivery P09+480 yuan/ton, June 25 - July 25 delivery P09+400 yuan/ton [7] Operational Suggestions - Palm oil futures market: Despite being in an oversold state technically, fundamental negative factors will continue to affect the market. As the main palm oil producing areas enter the peak production period, inventory will rise significantly in the coming months, and palm oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. The decline in crude oil makes the future demand outlook for B40 unclear, and the soybean-palm oil price spread is gradually returning to normal [8] - Soybean oil: There is still an expectation of a large number of imported soybeans arriving at ports, and the tight supply of soybean oil is expected to ease, with the possibility of a later basis decline [8] - Rapeseed oil: It is greatly affected by import policies. The forecast of future purchase shipments is significantly lower year-on-year, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and biodiesel [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated to be 1.73 million tons by MPOA, a 24.62% increase month-on-month. Peninsular Malaysia's production increased by 28.06% month-on-month, Sabah's by 24.07%, Sarawak's by 11.37%, and East Malaysia's by 20.76% [9] - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1 - 5 increased by 60.17% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 61.58% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.59% month-on-month [9] - Reuters estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in April to be 1.62 million tons, imports 50,000 tons, exports 1.1 million tons, consumption 338,000 tons, and inventory 1.794 million tons; Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [9] - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, China's domestic soybean oil inventory was 581,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons (2.92%) from last week; the contract volume was 1.322 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons (1.66%) from last week. Coastal inventory was 516,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons (3.48%) from last week; the contract volume was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (1.51%) from last week [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple graphs, including the spot price of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][25]