德国联邦统计局12日公布的数据显示，10月份德国通胀率为2.3%，仍高于欧元区2%的目标值。 数据显示，虽然能源价格有所下降，但是包括旅行和汽车维修在内的各项服务价格再次显著高于去年， 涨幅达3.5%。其他价格大幅上涨的服务包括客运和社会机构提供的服务。医院等机构提供的服务价格 也较上年显著上涨。 经济学家：主要通胀浪潮已经消退 经济学家认为，德国消费者短期内将不得不接受高于2%的通胀率，但是主要的通胀浪潮已经消退。多 家经济研究机构预计，德国今年的通货膨胀率将相对温和，为2.1%，与2024年的2.2%水平相近。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is currently uncertain about its next steps, with expectations leaning towards a pause in rate cuts for December, following a reduction of 150 basis points over the past year [2][3] - The economy is showing signs of resilience, with earnings reports for the third quarter indicating a 14% year-over-year increase, surpassing initial expectations of a 6.5% increase [7][5] - Despite concerns about inflation and the labor market, the overall economic indicators suggest that the economy does not require further support through interest rate cuts [8][14] Market Performance - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 7000 by the end of the year, with a potential increase to 7700 by the end of next year, indicating a continued bullish market outlook [16][17] - The market has already reacted positively to the potential reopening of the US government, with expectations of a year-end rally [19][20] Gold Market Insights - The price of gold has been influenced by geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the accumulation of gold by central banks [24][26] - Predictions for gold prices suggest a rise to 5000 by the end of next year and 10,000 by the end of the decade, driven by both international and domestic factors [26][27] Currency and Stablecoin Trends - The US dollar is expected to weaken, but there is a contrarian view suggesting that stablecoins, which are backed by liquid assets like Treasury bills, may bolster the dollar's strength [27][30] - Emerging markets are increasingly adopting stablecoins as a viable financial solution, indicating a shift in currency dynamics [30]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the challenges faced by individuals holding cash deposits in the future economic environment, particularly after 2025, highlighting the need for diversified asset allocation to mitigate risks associated with inflation and missed investment opportunities [1][6]. Group 1: Inflation and Cash Value Erosion - The purchasing power of cash is gradually diminishing as inflation rises when the rate of money issuance exceeds the growth of goods and services, leading to a decrease in the number of goods that can be purchased [3]. - Keeping funds in cash or fixed deposits often results in returns that fail to keep pace with inflation, eroding the wealth of depositors [3]. Group 2: Diversification Strategies - To counteract inflation, individuals should diversify their asset allocation rather than holding all funds in cash, considering investments in real estate, stocks, funds, and hard currencies like gold, which can provide value preservation and growth opportunities [4]. - Enhancing personal skills through education and training is also suggested as a fundamental way to increase income and combat inflation's effects [4]. Group 3: Opportunity Cost of Cash Holdings - A significant risk is the missed opportunities for wealth growth during economic transitions, where new industries and investment opportunities emerge; excessive cash holdings can lead to opportunity costs [6]. - As others invest in emerging industries or enhance their skills for higher returns, those holding cash may see their wealth stagnate or decline relatively [6]. Group 4: Financial Awareness and Planning - The article advocates for individuals with savings to assess their financial situation, set clear financial goals, and allocate funds across various asset classes to avoid concentration risk [7]. - It also advises caution regarding online predictions from so-called experts, emphasizing the importance of financial literacy and independent thinking to navigate future uncertainties [7].

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：美联储内部出现的分歧给降息之路蒙上了阴影，在美联储主席鲍威尔近 八年的任期内，这种程度的分歧几乎没有先例。官员们在持续的通货膨胀和低迷的劳动力市场哪个构成 更大威胁的问题上产生了分歧，甚至恢复官方经济数据也可能无法弥合分歧。尽管投资者认为美联储在 下次会议上降息的可能性仍然很大，这种分裂使得不到两个月前看似可行的计划变得复杂。 ...

Core Insights - The government shutdown has led to a lack of data, complicating the decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [1] - Inflation hawks are advocating for a pause on rate cuts during the contentious October meeting, indicating a significant divide among policymakers [1] - The ongoing divide over monetary policy may persist, suggesting potential volatility in the financial markets [1] Economic Impact - The absence of government data due to the shutdown is creating uncertainty in economic indicators, which could affect investment strategies [1] - The push from inflation hawks to maintain higher interest rates reflects concerns over inflationary pressures, which could influence borrowing costs and consumer spending [1] Market Reactions - The contentious nature of the October meeting may lead to increased market volatility as investors react to differing opinions on monetary policy [1] - The potential for a prolonged divide among policymakers could result in fluctuating market conditions, impacting investment decisions [1]

Labor Market Insights - The ADP report indicates an average job loss of 11,250 per week over the four weeks leading up to October 25, suggesting a weak labor market and contradicting the idea of stabilization [1] - There are concerns that the recent government shutdown and layoffs of federal workers may be affecting the job figures, with potential for a rebound in the coming weeks [3] - Mixed data points are emerging, including a decline in small business confidence due to falling sales and demand, which is significant as small businesses are major employers [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading suggests that while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, it is not worsening, leaving the Fed with a wide range of options for their December meeting [5] - The decision on whether to cut rates will depend on the balance between wage inflation and job market conditions, with upcoming official data being crucial for understanding the current economic situation [5][6]

美国财长贝森特：我认为关税有助于消费者，因为……我们降低了预算赤字……随着赤字支出的减少，通货膨胀也会下降。 https://t.co/DSd7sOFdLo ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 "dividends" to Americans funded by tariff revenues, amidst declining support and recent electoral losses for the Republican Party [3][5]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump's plan aims to provide $2,000 to Americans, excluding high-income individuals, funded by tariff revenues [4]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that implementing this plan could lead to a fiscal loss exceeding twice the tariff revenue, which is insufficient to support such large-scale payouts [4][8]. - The proposal has been made twice in 2023, indicating Trump's focus on improving his public image [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The CRFB estimates that distributing $2,000 to all Americans would result in an annual expenditure of approximately $600 billion, while the federal tariff revenue for the fiscal year was only $195 billion [8]. - If limited to 150 million adults earning less than $100,000 annually, the total payout would still reach around $300 billion, far exceeding the tariff income [8]. - Historical data suggests that large cash distributions could trigger inflation, as seen during the pandemic when stimulus checks contributed to a 40-year high inflation rate [8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. is currently facing significant fiscal challenges, with a projected federal budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year [11]. - The CRFB warns that annual implementation of the dividend could increase the deficit by $6 trillion over ten years, which is double the expected revenue from Trump's tariffs [11]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the legality of the tariffs, the remaining revenue may only support dividends every seven years [11]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Recent polls indicate a decline in Trump's support, with a net approval rating of -18%, and significant dissatisfaction regarding his handling of inflation and economic issues [14]. - Consumer confidence has dropped, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to a three-year low, reflecting concerns about the economic impact of the government shutdown [14]. - Economic analysts suggest that the current market conditions are precarious, with potential risks of recession or renewed inflation [15].

若该计划真的实施，所造成的财政损失可能达到关税收入的两倍以上。 在支持率下滑、共和党于地方选举中接连受挫之际，美国总统特朗普再度提出一项引人注目的计划：利用关税收 入向美国人发放2000美元的"分红"。 特朗普说明道，这一计划不覆盖"高收入"美国人。他还特别强调："反对关税的人都是傻瓜！" 这一承诺迅速引发广泛关注与质疑。11月10日，美国联邦预算责任委员会（CRFB）在一份分析报告中表示，若 该计划真的实施，所造成的财政损失可能达到关税收入的两倍以上。报告强调，关税收入本身远不足以支撑如此 大规模的分红支出，反而可能加剧美国本已严峻的财政压力。 值得注意的是，这已是特朗普今年内第二次提出类似主张。早在7月，他就曾表示政府正考虑利用任内征收的数十 亿美元关税向民众发放小额退款。 在这一政策提议背后，是特朗普对其公众形象的深切关注。英国新宏睿投资管理公司创始人兼董事总经理夏宇宸 在接受第一财经记者采访时表示："特朗普并不忌惮其他东西，他在意的是自己在美国民众心中的形象。他的权力 根基，很大程度上建立于其所展示的强有力姿态。" 最新民调数据显示，特朗普当前面临的舆论环境并不乐观。根据民调机构YouGov的数据，他 ...

特朗普发出重大警告！ 美国总统特朗普当地时间周一警告，如果美国最高法院裁定他在全球范围内实施的全面关税政策无效， 美国将面临经济和国家安全灾难。 特朗普称，如果法院裁定征税违法并须退回已征关税，涉及金额将超过2万亿美元的关税收入与投资。 同日，特朗普还警告称，所有空中交通管制员须立即返岗，任何不返回的人都将受到严厉的"处罚"。 来看详细报道！ 涉及关税！特朗普警告 据路透社消息，当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普说，如果美国最高法院裁定其动用紧急权力法对几乎所 有贸易伙伴加征全面关税的行为违宪，美国将面临经济与国家安全危机。 特朗普称，他的政府计划利用关税红利向中低收入的美国人每人发放2000美元，并将剩余收入用于降低 美国债务。 特朗普还在社交媒体发文称，如果法院裁定征税违法并须退回已征关税，涉及金额将超过2万亿美元的 关税收入与投资。"他们给出的数字不对……如果我们在最高法院败诉，将会造成经济灾难，也会造成 国家安全灾难。"特朗普说道。 巴雷特大法官说，法院在处理已缴纳被裁定为非法关税的美国进口商的退款事宜时，"可能会一团糟"。 目前尚不清楚最高法院何时会做出裁决，以及如果特朗普败诉，企业是否有权获得迄今为止已 ...