Tariffs - President Trump announced new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on branded or patented pharmaceuticals and a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, both effective October 1st [2][3] - A 50% tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, and a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, also starting October 1st [3] - Section 232 investigations into imports of robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices were announced, which may lead to additional tariffs [4] Impact on Agriculture - The trade war has negatively affected American farmers, particularly with a decline in Chinese purchases of American soybeans [5] - A mechanism is being developed to transfer some tariff revenues to American farmers, though details are still to be determined [5][6] Government Shutdown - A government shutdown appears increasingly likely, with no serious negotiations between parties, potentially leading to the first full shutdown since 2013 [7][10] - If a shutdown occurs, it will delay jobs data, company certifications, and federal payments, with the travel industry projected to lose $1 billion weekly [9][10] - The potential for massive federal layoffs could impact hundreds of thousands of workers, although specific numbers are unclear [9][10] Market Reactions - The market has shown resilience despite the looming shutdown and tariff announcements, with some sectors, particularly drug stocks, performing well [11][15] - Investors are becoming accustomed to the tariff situation, with some companies using tariffs as a pricing strategy, leading to increased prices for consumers [17][19] - The impact of tariffs on consumer spending is expected to become more pronounced in upcoming quarters, particularly affecting lower-end consumers [21][22]

Key Takeaways PCE Numbers for August Were Mostly In-Line with EstimatesThough Inflation Is Still Present in PCE Data, It's Not Out of ControlPre-Market Traders Love This Report, but Don't Expect Big Rate Cuts from the FedFriday, September 26, 2025Ahead of today’s open, pre-market futures are climbing higher on mostly expected results from August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) this morning. The Dow is currently up +225 points, the S&P 500 +28 and the Nasdaq +105 points. Even the small-cap Russell 20 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Dow Jones index increasing by over 250 points, closing at 46,213.26, a rise of 0.58% [1] - The NASDAQ rose by 0.31% to 22,455.17, and the S&P 500 gained 0.47% to 6,636.07 [1] - Energy shares saw a notable increase of 1%, while consumer staples stocks fell by 0.3% [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose by 2.7% year-over-year in August, slightly above July's 2.6% [2][3] - Monthly PCE inflation accelerated to 0.3% in August, up from 0.2% in July [3] - Personal spending in the U.S. increased by 0.6% month-over-month to $21.112 trillion in August, exceeding market estimates [13] - U.S. personal income rose by 0.4% month-over-month to $26.280 trillion in August, also above market expectations [13] Commodity Market - Oil prices increased by 0.7% to $65.44, while gold rose by 0.5% to $3,789.00 [6] - Silver saw a rise of 1.4% to $45.725, whereas copper fell by 0.7% to $4.7240 [6] European Market Performance - European shares showed positive performance, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 gaining 0.8% [7] - Spain's IBEX 35 Index rose by 1.1%, London's FTSE 100 increased by 0.8%, Germany's DAX 40 gained 0.8%, and France's CAC 40 climbed 0.9% [7] Company-Specific Movements - MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies Inc. saw a significant share price increase of 155% to $3.74 following its expansion plans [9] - BioAffinity Technologies, Inc. shares surged by 92% to $6.57 after releasing additional case studies related to lung cancer detection [9] - Datavault AI Inc. shares rose by 50% to $1.2510 after securing a $150 million investment in Bitcoin [9] - Pop Culture Group Co., Ltd experienced a drop of 52% to $0.9802 due to a registered direct offering [9] - Kuke Music Holding Limited shares fell by 31% to $0.8111 after acquiring a controlling interest in Naxos Music Group [9] - Lexaria Bioscience Corp. shares decreased by 27% to $1.11 following a registered direct offering announcement [9] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling by 0.87%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declining by 1.35%, China's Shanghai Composite down by 0.65%, and India's BSE Sensex falling by 0.90% [10]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Dow Jones index increasing by over 250 points, closing at 46,213.26, a rise of 0.58% [1] - The NASDAQ rose by 0.31% to 22,455.17, and the S&P 500 gained 0.47% to 6,636.07 [1] - Energy shares saw a notable increase of 1%, while consumer staples stocks fell by 0.3% [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose by 2.7% year-over-year in August, slightly above July's 2.6% [2][3] - Monthly PCE inflation accelerated to 0.3% in August, up from 0.2% in July [3] - Personal spending in the U.S. increased by 0.6% month-over-month to $21.112 trillion in August, surpassing market estimates [13] - U.S. personal income rose by 0.4% month-over-month to $26.280 trillion in August, also above market expectations [13] Commodity Market - Oil prices increased by 0.7% to $65.44, while gold rose by 0.5% to $3,789.00 [6] - Silver saw a rise of 1.4% to $45.725, whereas copper fell by 0.7% to $4.7240 [6] European Market Performance - European shares showed positive performance, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 gaining 0.8% [7] - Spain's IBEX 35 Index rose by 1.1%, London's FTSE 100 increased by 0.8%, Germany's DAX 40 gained 0.8%, and France's CAC 40 climbed by 0.9% [7] Company-Specific Movements - MEDIROM Healthcare Technologies Inc. shares surged by 155% to $3.74 following the announcement of expansion plans [9] - bioAffinity Technologies, Inc. saw a 92% increase in shares to $6.57 after releasing additional case studies [9] - Datavault AI Inc. shares rose by 50% to $1.2510 after securing a $150 million investment in Bitcoin [9] - Pop Culture Group Co., Ltd shares dropped by 52% to $0.9802 due to a registered direct offering [9] - Kuke Music Holding Limited shares fell by 31% to $0.8111 after acquiring a controlling interest in Naxos Music Group [9] - Lexaria Bioscience Corp. shares decreased by 27% to $1.11 following a registered direct offering announcement [9] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling by 0.87%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declining by 1.35%, China's Shanghai Composite down by 0.65%, and India's BSE Sensex falling by 0.90% [10]

Year-over-year core PCE inflation coming in as expected, up by 2.9% in August, but uh obviously it's still pretty sticky. Joining us right now on the implications for the Fed with all of this is Loretta Mester. She is former Cleveland Fed president and a junct professor now at the University of Pennsylvania.And Loretta, what do you think of these numbers. Maybe not hotter than expected, but but sticky nonetheless. Yeah, it was another month of stickiness and that isn't really what the Fed wants to see.I mea ...

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed that inflationary pressures remained elevated in August, as policymakers seek to balance the need to restore price stability against a weakening labor market following last week's interest rate cut. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.3% in August from a month ago and is up 2.7% from last year. Those figures were in line with the estimate of LSEG economists.Core PCE, which excludes vol ...

Group 1 - The Russian government plans to increase the value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% in the 2026 budget to fund the war efforts, which will significantly impact consumer prices as VAT is a core component of the tax system covering nearly all goods and services [3] - The government aims to balance the need for increased military spending with social obligations, promising to fulfill all social policy commitments while prioritizing defense and security [3] - Military and security expenditures now account for 40% of total state spending, a significant increase of nearly 25 percentage points compared to pre-conflict levels, indicating a substantial financial commitment to the war [3] Group 2 - The Russian economy experienced a temporary boost due to war-related activities, with the military-industrial complex benefiting from increased government orders, although this has led to rising economic pressures on ordinary citizens [4] - The Russian Prime Minister forecasts a GDP growth of 1.3% in 2026, with an overall growth of approximately 7% over the next three years, while inflation rates are expected to decrease to 4% by the end of 2026 [8] - Despite the government's assurance that VAT on essential goods like food, medicine, and children's products will remain at 10%, prices for these necessities continue to rise due to supply chain disruptions and currency depreciation [8]

Economic Overview - In Q3 2025, global economic growth shows signs of recovery, with total demand slightly rebounding and overall supply remaining stable. Household consumption accounts for 55.4% of global GDP, with private investment at 28.1% and government spending at 16.5% [1][10][12] - Major economies exhibit divergent performances: the US economy is recovering, Europe shows weak recovery, Japan faces growth pressures, India exceeds expectations, and Russia encounters challenges [1][10][12] Demand and Supply Analysis - On the demand side, uncertainties are increasing, particularly in the US, where consumer spending may weaken. The EU and Japan also show signs of consumer fatigue. However, US investment may receive a boost, while other economies' potential remains questionable [2][6][18] - On the supply side, manufacturing is recovering, and service sector expansion continues, although US employment risks need to be monitored. Global actual GDP growth is projected at approximately 2.4% for Q4 2025, with an annual growth rate of about 2.1% [2][6][18] Inflation Trends - Global inflation is stabilizing overall, with a projected global CPI growth rate of around 3.1% for Q4 2025 and an annual rate of approximately 3.5%. The US faces a risk of inflation rebound, while other major economies experience a downward trend in prices [2][20][21] Trade and Tariff Policies - Tariff policies are experiencing a reduction in short-term impacts on global trade activities. The US has adjusted tariffs on various imports, leading to a slight decrease in the overall tariff rate. However, uncertainties remain regarding the legality of these policies and potential protectionist measures from other countries [23][25][26] - Global trade growth is expected to be around 0.7% in 2025, influenced by ongoing tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors [23][25][26] Fiscal Policies - Major economies are maintaining an expansionary fiscal policy stance. The US faces significant fiscal pressure, with a projected budget deficit of $2.911 trillion for the month of August, exceeding market expectations. The EU and Japan are also increasing their fiscal spending, focusing on defense and economic competitiveness [31][32][35][36]

Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - The US economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter, with a revised growth rate of 3.8 percent, up from the initial estimate of 3.3 percent, marking the fastest quarterly expansion in nearly two years [3] - Wall Street experienced a pullback, with all three main indexes ending in the red after reaching record highs earlier in the week, indicating concerns over stock valuations following a lengthy rally [4] Interest Rate Outlook and Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates due to a weakening labor market but indicated that further reductions are not guaranteed, leading to uncertainty in the market [2][3] - Decision-makers at the Federal Reserve have expressed varying views on future monetary policy in light of persistent inflation and soft job data [3] Tariff Implications on Pharmaceuticals - President Trump's announcement of new tariffs includes a 100 percent levy on "branded or patented" pharmaceuticals unless companies establish manufacturing plants in the US, which has raised concerns among Asian pharmaceutical firms [5][6] - Asian pharmaceutical companies, including Shanghai Fosun and South Korea's Daewoong, saw significant stock declines following the tariff announcement, with Fosun dropping more than four percent [6] Legislative Uncertainty - Traders are closely monitoring the ongoing negotiations in Washington regarding a funding package to prevent a government shutdown, with a deadline approaching next week [2][7] - The lack of agreement between Democrats and Republicans over spending plans is contributing to market unease, as both parties remain at an impasse [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q4 were $84.43 billion, an increase of 8% from $78.18 billion in the same quarter last year [12] - Net income for Q4 was $2.61 billion, or $5.87 per diluted share, up 11% from $2.35 billion, or $5.29 per diluted share last year [12] - Membership fee income increased by $212 million or 14% year-over-year, reaching $1.72 billion [14] - Gross margin for Q4 was 11.13%, up 13 basis points year-over-year [17] - SG&A rate increased to 9.21%, up 17 basis points from 9.04% last year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce sales exceeded $19.6 billion, increasing over 15% [7] - Comparable sales were up 5.7%, or 6.4% adjusted for gas deflation and foreign exchange [12] - E-commerce comparable sales were up 13.6%, or 13.5% adjusted for foreign exchange [13] - Fresh sales were up high single digits, led by double-digit growth in meat [22] - Non-foods had comparable sales in the high single digits, with strong performance in gold and jewelry, gift cards, and consumer electronics [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 10 new warehouses in Q4, bringing the total to 914 worldwide [5] - Plans to open another 35 warehouses in fiscal year 2026, including five relocations [5] - Total paid members reached 81 million, up 6.3% year-over-year, with 38.7 million paid executive memberships, up 9.3% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding both domestically and internationally, with significant opportunities identified in existing markets [5] - Continued investment in technology and digital enhancements to improve member experience and drive e-commerce growth [9][28] - Emphasis on sourcing more Kirkland Signature products locally to reduce costs and emissions [8][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in growing market share despite macroeconomic uncertainties [11] - The company is adapting to changes in membership dynamics, particularly with younger members joining through online sign-ups [16][41] - Management is optimistic about the upcoming holiday season, with a strong inventory position and new product offerings [27] Other Important Information - Capital expenditure for Q4 was approximately $1.97 billion, with a total of under $5.5 billion for the full year [20] - The company is focusing on improving member value through enhanced benefits and services, including extended operating hours and new membership perks [8][11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Awareness of extended member hours and potential for comp lift - Management believes they have effectively communicated the extended hours to members, with a 1% comp lift observed [32][33] Question: Expected decline in membership renewal rates - Management anticipates a continued decline in renewal rates due to a higher number of online sign-ups, but sees overall membership engagement as strong [38][41] Question: Insights on core margins and price increases - Core margins improved by 29 basis points year-over-year, with strong performance across all main categories [45][47] Question: Sustainability of membership fee income growth - Management remains optimistic about continued growth in membership income, driven by new warehouse openings and younger member engagement [56][57] Question: E-commerce and grocery demand in light of competition - Management noted strong growth in Instacart-driven traffic and is aware of increased competition, but remains confident in their offerings [65][66]