Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's growth and the annual target[4] - The construction sector's GDP growth was only 0.7%, down from 4.8% in the previous year, indicating a shift towards new economic sectors like information technology[4] Policy Direction - The Politburo emphasized the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations[4] - A more proactive fiscal policy is required, with an acceleration in government bond issuance to enhance fund utilization efficiency[6] Fiscal Measures - In the first half of 2025, special bonds and long-term bonds totaled 2.43 trillion yuan, with an additional 3.7 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, leaving approximately 1.3 trillion yuan unutilized[6] - The government plans to issue 3.8 trillion yuan in special bonds in the second half of the year to support fiscal spending[6] Consumption and Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting domestic consumption, particularly through service consumption, which has a significant multiplier effect on employment[5] - The government aims to implement special actions to stimulate consumption, focusing on both goods and services[5] Risk Management - The meeting called for proactive measures to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent the emergence of new hidden debts[12] - A total of 2.8 trillion yuan in debt for debt resolution has been issued this year, with 776.9 billion yuan in special new bonds issued to address corporate debt issues[13] Monetary Policy - The probability of significant monetary easing in Q3 is low, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs through structural monetary policy tools[17] - The average interest rate on new corporate loans and personal housing loans decreased by approximately 50 basis points and 60 basis points, respectively, in Q1[22] Trade and Exports - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in the first half of 2025, despite challenges from external demand[26] - The government plans to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, emphasizing support for affected export enterprises[27] Real Estate Policy - The meeting did not mention measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards urban renewal and quality development rather than expansion[33]

| | 7月30日 20:15 美国7月ADP就业人数(万人) | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 7月31日 02:00 美联储FOMC公布利率决议 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 国债期货日报 2025/7/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.300 | 0.15% T主力成交量 | 86268 | 7801↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.630 | 0.08% TF主力成交量 | 72345 | 7765↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.336 | 0.03% TS主力成交量 | 38836 | 465↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 118.360 | 0.4% TL主力成交量 | 159171 | 7641↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.40 | -0.02↓ T09 ...

7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢 基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策 工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏 观政策取向一致性。清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩表示，下半年 宏观政策将聚焦稳增长与调结构，根据经济运行情况适时加大政策力度。财政政策将持续加码，增加重 点领域支出，如城市更新、科技创新、产业升级等；货币政策方面，预计将继续保持适度宽松的货币环 境，可能会通过降低存款准备金率等方式，向市场注入更多流动性；将更多通过各项结构性货币政策工 具，与财政政策形成配合，支持科技创新和产业升级；同时，预计将加大力度提振消费，补贴政策将从 耐用消费品扩展至文旅、餐饮等服务消费领域，加大对居民消费的补贴力度，进一步激发市场活力。此 外，将进一步强化稳岗扩就业的各项措施，包括加大对高校毕业生、农民工等重点群体的就业帮扶力 度，开展职 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Although China's economic fundamentals were still under pressure in June, financial data showed that the effects of loose monetary policy had emerged and might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market. However, after the Politburo meeting, without any unexpected policies, market bulls might take profit, and stock index futures were expected to enter a wide - range shock. It was recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) closed at 4136.4, up 1.8; IF sub - main contract (2508) closed at 4147.0, up 1.6. IH main contract (2509) closed at 2820.0, up 7.8; IH sub - main contract (2508) closed at 2821.4, up 9.0. IC main contract (2509) closed at 6215.4, down 26.2; IC sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6271.2, down 26.8. IM main contract (2509) closed at 6604.2, down 28.8; IM sub - main contract (2508) closed at 6675.6, down 29.8 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1325.6, down 14.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 2124.2, down 40.8. IM - IC current - month contract spread was 404.4, down 8.8; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 3449.8, down 55.4. IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2528.6, down 49.6; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 3854.2, down 64.2 [2] - IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 41.8, up 1.0; IF next - quarter minus current - month was - 72.6, up 1.6. IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 1.2, down 3.6; IH next - quarter minus current - month was 0.2, down 3.2. IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 192.2, up 2.8; IC next - quarter minus current - month was - 316, up 5.4. IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 260.4, down 1.2; IM next - quarter minus current - month was - 425.8, down 0.8 [2] Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions were - 26,574.00, down 2773.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 14,691.00, down 262.0. IC top 20 net positions were - 11,447.00, down 1360.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 37,384.00, down 2167.0 [2] Spot Price - CSI 300 was at 4151.24, down 0.8; IF main contract basis was - 14.8, down 4.2. SSE 50 was at 2819.35, up 10.8; IH main contract basis was 0.7, down 4.8. CSI 500 was at 6314.69, down 41.5; IC main contract basis was - 99.3, down 6.2. CSI 1000 was at 6718.48, down 55.4; IM main contract basis was - 114.3, down 2.4 [2] Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 18,709.76, up 416.67; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 19,826.41, up 156.08. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2334.31, up 67.60; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, billion yuan) was - 1505.0, up 3090.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were - 399.83 and - 792.11 respectively [2] - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 31.62, down 9.75; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.317, down 0.049. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2508) was 52.00, down 9.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2508) was 54.00, down 4.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 14.42, down 1.22. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 6.52, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) was 63.76, up 5.52; open interest PCR (%) was 75.91, up 3.25 [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 3.80, down 1.60; technical aspect was at 3.20, down 0.90; capital aspect was at 4.40, down 2.20 [2] Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in due course. It was necessary to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, boost consumption, promote "two major" construction, expand high - level opening - up, and resolve local government debt risks [2] - From July 28th to 29th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm. The two sides agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [2] Key Data to Focus On - On July 30th at 20:15, focus on US ADP employment in July; at 20:30, focus on US Q2 GDP; at 21:45, focus on Bank of Canada interest rate decision. On July 31st at 2:00, focus on Fed interest rate decision; at 9:30, focus on China's July manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI; at 10:47, focus on Bank of Japan interest rate decision; at 20:30, focus on US June PCE and core PCE. On August 1st at 9:45, focus on China's July Caixin manufacturing PMI; at 20:30, focus on US July non - farm payrolls report; at 22:00, focus on US July ISM manufacturing PMI [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting emphasizes the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1][2] - The monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose orientation, with an emphasis on ensuring ample liquidity and promoting a decline in the comprehensive financing costs for society [1][2] - The meeting did not directly mention "timely interest rate cuts," but introduced a new expression regarding the goal of "promoting the decline of social comprehensive financing costs" [1][2] Group 2 - The focus on utilizing existing structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade is highlighted [2] - Analysts suggest that the necessity for new large-scale incremental policies, including interest rate cuts, has decreased due to the stable external economic environment and the observation period following previous rate cuts [2][3] - There is an expectation that the central bank may consider further interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions if necessary, to create a favorable financial environment for large-scale government bond issuance and credit allocation [3]

Economic Overview - The political bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, acknowledged the economic growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5%[1] - The meeting highlighted ongoing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating continued macro policy support and effectiveness[1] Policy Directions - Macro policies are to "continue to exert force and timely increase strength," maintaining the focus on "stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" as key objectives[1] - The meeting emphasized the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight[1] Demand Expansion - Policies to expand domestic demand will focus on two growth points in service consumption: general consumption and elderly/childcare consumption[1] - For general consumption, service consumption subsidies may replace "old-for-new" subsidies, potentially driving an additional 70 billion yuan in consumption annually, accounting for approximately 0.15% of social retail sales[1] Industrial Policy - The meeting stressed the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises[2] - The approach to capacity reduction will be guided rather than enforced, focusing on market-driven methods to minimize economic shocks[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will prioritize structural support rather than broad easing, with a focus on supporting technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade[2] - The potential introduction of policy financial tools is anticipated, with a timeline similar to previous years, aiming to support various sectors including traditional infrastructure and technology[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal measures in the first half of the year showed a 3.4% increase in expenditures, indicating a proactive fiscal stance[2] - The actual deficit rate for the first half reached 3.9%, suggesting significant fiscal effort, although further total policy increases may not be necessary unless economic pressures escalate in the latter half[2] Financial Market - The meeting called for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery momentum[2] - This involves institutional innovation and market opening to better allocate resources and support various enterprises[2] Real Estate Policy - While not a primary focus, the meeting underscored the importance of implementing urban renewal and improving the real estate development model[2] - Future policies may include optimizing existing regulations and promoting urban renewal projects to stimulate housing demand[2] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential downturns in the real estate market, trade tensions, and the effectiveness of consumption stimulus measures[2]

国家发改委就《政府投资基金布局规划和投向工作指引（公开征求意见稿）》向社会公开征求意见。意见稿提出，设立政府投资基金要落实建设全国统一大 市场部署要求，不以招商引资为目的，鼓励降低或取消返投比例。政府投资基金投向要符合国家生产力布局宏观调控要求，避免投资于存在结构性矛盾的产 业，在新兴产业领域防止盲目跟风、一哄而上，支持有关行业企业实施兼并重组，加快技术更新换代，推动产业提质升级。 政治局会议强调培育服务消费新增长点 宏观要闻 政治局会议要求宏观政策持续发力 据新华社消息，中共中央政治局周三召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。对于接下来的政策走向，会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、 适时加力。具体来看，会议提到，要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效 率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微 企业、稳定外贸等。 发改委将加强政府投资基金投向调控 中共中央政治局会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品消费的同时， ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasizes the need for sustained and timely macroeconomic policy support, focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy - The government aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve the efficiency of fund usage [1] - There is a commitment to ensure the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level, which likely refers to ensuring basic living standards, employment, and education [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will maintain ample liquidity to promote a decline in the overall financing costs for society [1] - The use of various structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1] Group 3: Economic Strategy - The meeting highlights the importance of major economic provinces playing a significant role in driving economic growth [1] - There is a call for strengthening the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation to ensure effective implementation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the global economic situation as "maintaining fragile resilience amid ongoing uncertainty," with projected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 slightly increased compared to previous forecasts [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from earlier predictions [1]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow at rates of 4.1% and 4.0% in 2025 and 2026, with China's growth rate for 2025 adjusted up by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% [7]. Inflation Expectations - Global inflation is projected to decline, with rates expected to reach 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, although significant disparities exist among different economies [1][10]. - The IMF anticipates that U.S. inflation will remain above the 2% target level, while inflation in the Eurozone is expected to be more moderate [10]. Trade Volume Adjustments - The IMF has raised its 2025 global trade volume forecast by 0.9 percentage points but lowered the 2026 forecast by 0.6 percentage points, citing increased uncertainty in trade policies [4]. - A weaker dollar is expected to amplify tariff impacts rather than mitigate them, with U.S. fiscal policies potentially offsetting some negative effects on the current account balance [4][5]. Fiscal Vulnerabilities - The IMF warns of increasing global fiscal vulnerabilities, with some economies, including Brazil, France, and the U.S., projected to face significant fiscal deficits amid historically high public debt levels [5]. - Concerns over fiscal sustainability may lead to increased term premiums, particularly in the U.S., tightening global financial conditions and potentially causing market volatility [5].

美联储理事阿德里亚娜·库格勒早些时候表示，美国央行不应在"一段时间内"降息，因为特朗普政府关 税的影响开始在消费者价格中显现。库格勒补充说，限制性货币政策对于保持通胀心理是至关重要的。 随着全球贸易局势的不断变化，加拿大与美国之间的贸易关系再次成为焦点。尽管两国正在努力达成一 项新的贸易协议，以缓解当前的关税争端，但经济学家们警告，加拿大的经济前景依然笼罩在不确定性 的阴云之下。即使短期内能够达成协议，未来的挑战——尤其是《美墨加协定》（USMCA）的审议 ——仍可能对加拿大经济造成深远影响。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国和中国将在两周内的最后期限前继续就维持关税休战进行谈 判，特朗普将对任何延期做出最终决定。贝森特淡化了特朗普拒绝延期的任何预期。 中国财政部长蓝佛安周二表示，中国将加大财政支持力度，以提振国内消费，缓解日益加剧的经济逆 风。他强调，中国发展环境的不确定性正在增加，北京将采取更加积极的财政政策来帮助稳定增长。 美国和欧盟周日达成了一项框架贸易协议，对大多数欧洲商品征收15%的关税，并将于8月1日生效。据 彭博称，这笔交易结束了长达数月的僵局。 【黄金期货行情表现】 7月30日，沪金主力 ...