Economic Overview - In April 2025, Canada's real GDP decreased by 0.1%, ending the growth trend observed in March [1] - The goods-producing sector experienced an overall decline of 0.6%, with manufacturing being a significant drag, falling by 1.9% [1] - Durable and non-durable goods manufacturing dropped by 2.2% and 1.6% respectively, indicating negative impacts from tariff uncertainties on transportation equipment manufacturing and the food and oil industries [1] Service Sector Performance - The service-producing sector saw a slight increase of 0.1%, with public administration, finance and insurance, and arts and entertainment contributing to this growth [2] - The finance and insurance sector grew by 0.7%, marking the largest increase since August 2024, driven by high-frequency trading activities due to U.S. tariff announcements [2] - The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector achieved a growth of 2.8%, primarily due to increased attendance at NHL playoff games in Canada [2] Trade and Resource Sector Insights - The wholesale trade sector declined by 1.9%, significantly impacted by reduced imports and exports in motor vehicles and parts [7] - In the resource sector, while the oil and gas extraction sub-sector was affected by decreased natural gas and crude oil production, oil and gas support activities saw an increase due to rising drilling activities [7] Government Financials - In Q1 2025, the total deficit for all levels of government in Canada was CAD 12.4 billion, a reduction of CAD 19.6 billion compared to the same period last year [7] - The federal government significantly reduced its deficit to CAD 8.7 billion, while provincial and territorial governments faced pressures from increased spending and reduced revenues [7] Future Economic Outlook - The real GDP is expected to continue declining by 0.1% in May 2025, indicating challenges for short-term economic growth [7] - Growth in real estate rental activities may partially offset declines in other sectors [7] - The economic situation reflects the impact of global trade tensions on Canada's manufacturing and export-oriented industries, while also highlighting the supportive role of the service sector and other areas in economic growth [7]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券分析】 关税豁免期临近到期，关注贸易格局演变 ——6 月海外月度观察 油价：6 月，国际原油先受中美元首通话提振油需前景，后受中东局势引发 供给担忧双重因素带动下强势上涨至 75.60 美元/桶，随后中东局势缓和，油 价回落至 64.92 美元/桶。 美国就业市场超预期疲软；金融市场流动性紧缩。 债券研究 经济方面，全球制造业景气度收缩，服务业保持高景气度。贸易方面，波罗 的海干散货指数先升后降，5 月前 20 日韩国出口同比跌幅收缩至-2.5%。货 币政策方面，关税政策加剧经济前景的不确定性，主要央行保持谨慎态度。 财政政策方面，德国政府内阁批准 2025 年财政预算草案和 2026 年财政预 算框架。 ❖ 发达经济体：关税冲击经济前景，通胀继续降温 美国经济景气度回落，制造业和服务业景气度均处于收缩区间；劳动力市场 温和走弱，时薪增速超预期；通胀继续降温，关税影响暂未体现；零售销售 继续走弱，消费者支出放缓；房贷利率居高不下以及持续上涨的房价加剧居 民购房负担。英国、日本制造业和服务业景气度分化，欧元区增长乏力。通 胀方面，欧元区、英国通胀降温，日本通胀水平继续处于政策目标上 ...

美联储理事巴尔：关税可能同时减缓经济增长并导致失业率上升。 ...

美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大 出口创疫情以来最大降幅 金十数据6月26日讯，美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大，出口出现自疫情爆发以来的最大降幅，进口几乎 没有变化。美国商务部数据显示，商品贸易逆差增长11.1%，至966亿美元，高于市场预期。商品出口 下降5.2%，至1792亿美元，原油等工业供应品的出货量急剧下降。进口几乎没有变化，为2758亿美 元。贸易逆差扩大表明，贸易对第二季度经济增长的贡献可能低于最初的预期。一季度GDP报告还凸显 贸易与库存影响的脱钩。通常情况下，进口商品会进入仓库或直供商店，在GDP账户中形成至少部分抵 消效应。但库存当季为GDP贡献2.59个百分点，远不足以弥补贸易平衡恶化。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the potential impact of proposed tariffs by the Trump administration on inflation and economic stability, as articulated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during a Senate hearing [2] - Powell indicated that while tariffs might cause a one-time increase in prices, the long-term inflation risks should not be overlooked, emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a cautious approach to maintain price stability and economic health [2] - The actual impact of tariffs on prices could exceed expectations, depending on the scale, implementation, and market reactions, suggesting that the Federal Reserve must manage these risks carefully [2] Group 2 - In the gold market, prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the current price at $3331.27 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.02% [1] - The gold price opened at $3332.09 per ounce, reaching a high of $3339.76 and a low of $3328.99 during the trading session [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is likely to face resistance below $3342.00 and support above $3311.00, with potential targets for downward movement set between $3316.00 and $3301.00 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Collins suggests that tariffs may lead to increased inflation, reduced economic growth, and lower employment levels [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are likely to push inflation higher, impacting consumer prices and overall economic stability [1] - The potential economic slowdown due to tariffs could result in decreased job opportunities and lower employment rates [1] - Collins emphasizes the negative implications of tariffs on the broader economy, highlighting the interconnectedness of trade policies and economic performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts has become uncertain following recent statements from officials, leading to significant changes in market expectations for future rate cuts [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will implement seven rate cuts by July 2026, with the final rate expected to be between 2.5% and 2.75% [2]. - The swap market has increased the probability of a July rate cut from nearly 0% to 40%, with the total expected cuts for the remaining four meetings of the year rising from 45 basis points to 60 basis points [3]. - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Bowman, suggest a potential rate cut as early as July [7][26]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Federal Reserve - Deutsche Bank reports that internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve have reached a ten-year high, primarily due to differing views on balancing inflation control and economic growth [4][11]. - The June dot plot indicates a significant polarization in predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a 50 basis point gap between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in a decade [12]. - The report suggests that the main issue facing the Federal Reserve is not "historical uncertainty," but rather "historical division" among officials [14]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns that rising tariffs could impact U.S. consumer prices, with Powell indicating that data from June and July will reveal the tariffs' effects on inflation [8]. - Bank of America economists warn that if the labor market remains stable, tariffs could lead to a resurgence in inflation, potentially preventing rate cuts in 2025 [9][10]. - The Kansas City Fed President Schmid emphasized the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on prices and economic growth before making further rate decisions [19][25].

自新冠疫情以来，面对飙升的通胀，全球主要央行纷纷加息，现在，它们都已经开始降息，但日本央行 一直是个"异类"。 尽管日本的整体和核心通胀率自2022年4月以来一直高于其2%的目标，且整体通胀率在今年1月达到了 4%的两年高点，但日本央行却始终按兵不动，所谓的核心通胀自2022年10月以来也一直高于目标。 自2024年3月放弃负利率政策以来的14个月里，日本央行仅加息了60个基点。在最近的6月政策会议上， 它将政策利率维持在0.5%，并表示"基础CPI通胀可能保持疲软，主要原因是经济减速。" 美联储于2022年3月进行了自2018年以来的首次加息，同年除日本央行外的所有主要央行都提高了利 率。 在日本，通胀的主要驱动力是食品价格，特别是大米价格。该国的大米价格在2024年下半年急剧上涨， 并在2025年上半年进一步加速，主要原因是2023年和2024年的收成不佳。 今年5月，大米价格飙升了101.7%，这标志着半个多世纪以来的最大涨幅。 摩根大通资产管理的全球市场策略师Marcella Chow指出，大米约占日本核心通胀的一半，未来的通胀 趋势在很大程度上依赖于食品价格，尤其是大米。 暂时性的大米价格飙升？ 但 ...

泰国央行：若经济增长低于预期，将考虑降息。 ...

瑞典央行行长特登：瑞典通胀和经济增长的前景仍难以评估，存在发展情况与我们预期存在显著偏离的 风险。 ...