Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady development trend, with a need for macro policies to effectively release domestic demand potential and promote dual circulation [1][2] - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9%, while social retail sales grew by 3.7%, down from 4.8% in June [1][2] - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showing a slowdown [1][2] Industrial Performance - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 6.8%, influenced by slowing investment and consumption growth [2] - The producer price index for industrial producers fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [2] Consumption and Policy Measures - Starting in August, measures to expand consumption include the introduction of childcare subsidies and the exemption of certain education fees, aimed at boosting consumer spending [3][4] - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in central fiscal consumption subsidies will be implemented, with a fourth batch expected to continue until the end of the year, supporting retail growth [2][3] Challenges and Future Outlook - The real estate sector and local infrastructure investment present ongoing challenges, requiring time to address accumulated issues [3][4] - Short-term factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in consumption subsidies have impacted July's economic data, but the introduction of macroeconomic policies in August is expected to promote effective investment and enhance domestic demand [4]

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady development trend, requiring continued macro policy support to effectively release domestic demand potential and promote a stable and healthy economic development [1][2] - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9%, while social retail sales grew by 3.7%, lower than June's 4.8% and May's 6.4% [1] Consumption and Retail - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0% year-on-year in July, down from 5.3% previously, with significant growth in home appliances (28.7%), furniture (20.6%), communication equipment (14.9%), and cultural office supplies (13.8%) [1] - The restaurant sector showed weak performance, with growth of only 1.1% in July compared to 5.9% in May [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all showing a slowdown [1] - Manufacturing investment has decreased, while infrastructure projects, particularly "two heavy" projects, are expected to gain momentum in the second half of the year [1][3] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% previously, influenced by slowing investment and consumption growth [2] - Producer prices for industrial products fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [2] Policy Measures - Starting in August, measures to expand consumption include the introduction of childcare subsidies and the exemption of fees for public kindergarten education for certain age groups [3] - The government is also encouraging service consumption through fiscal interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans [3] Challenges and Outlook - The real estate sector and local infrastructure investment present ongoing challenges, requiring time to address accumulated issues [3] - Short-term factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in consumption subsidies have impacted July's economic data, but upcoming macroeconomic policies are expected to promote effective investment and release domestic demand potential [3]

Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady development trend, requiring continued macro policy support to effectively release domestic demand potential and promote a stable and healthy economic development [1][2] Export and Consumption - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9% [1] - Social retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, down from 4.8% in June and 6.4% in May, with retail sales of goods increasing by 4.0%, lower than the previous value of 5.3% [1] - The consumption upgrade policy continues to show effects, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances (28.7%), furniture (20.6%), communication equipment (14.9%), and cultural office supplies (13.8%) [1] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - Investment growth in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate showed a downward trend, decreasing by 1.3%, 1.4%, and 0.8% respectively [1] Industrial Production - In July, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 6.8% [2] - The producer price index for industrial producers decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [2] Policy Measures - Starting in August, the government will implement measures to expand consumption, including childcare subsidies and the exemption of certain fees for public kindergartens [3] - The government aims to accelerate infrastructure investment and improve the efficiency of fund utilization through the issuance of government bonds [3] Short-term Influences - July's economic data was affected by short-term factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in consumption subsidies [3] - The introduction of macroeconomic policies in August is expected to promote effective investment and release domestic demand potential [3]

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that domestic demand will insulate the Indian steel market from the impact of tariffs, allowing it to remain unaffected [1] Group 2 - The Indian steel industry is expected to benefit from strong domestic consumption, which is projected to support growth despite external pressures [1] - The article suggests that the resilience of the Indian steel market is attributed to robust infrastructure development and increasing demand from various sectors [1]

Group 1 - The World Economic Forum's 16th Annual Meeting of the New Champions, also known as the "Summer Davos Forum," was held in Tianjin from June 24 to June 26 [1] - A majority of economists surveyed believe that current U.S. economic policies will have a lasting impact on the global economy, with 87% predicting delays in strategic business decisions and increased recession risks [3] - Huang Yiping, Dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies in the face of economic uncertainty [3] Group 2 - Huang Yiping highlighted the importance of distinguishing between short-term and long-term fiscal policies, advocating for constraints on government spending to avoid sustainability issues [3] - The concept of fiscal sustainability was discussed, indicating its significance for the functioning of government and the achievement of national development strategies [4] - Huang also pointed out the necessity to boost domestic demand and consumption in China, given the changing dynamics of global markets [4] Group 3 - The chief economist's briefing indicated that artificial intelligence is expected to drive growth, but 47% of respondents anticipate job losses as a result [5]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis suggests that the Canadian economy's 2.2% GDP growth in the first quarter does not indicate positive developments in the new tariff era, and it is insufficient to compel the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates on June 4 [1] Economic Growth Analysis - The 2.2% GDP growth was primarily driven by pre-tariff effects on exports and inventory accumulation, while domestic demand remains weak [1] - Continuous monitoring of second-quarter data is necessary to determine if there is further deterioration in domestic demand [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The analyst expects the Bank of Canada to maintain a "dovish hold" policy but anticipates potential rate cuts in July, October, and December if signs of economic weakness persist [1] - If consumer spending and investment do not improve, combined with trade policy uncertainties, the central bank may need to implement multiple rate cuts to stimulate the economy [1]

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